Why Hybrids Are A Tough Sell Sales Are Falling

[The Critic]

I disagree with the OP's article. The price difference between a comparable gasser and a hybrid vehicle is closer to $2000, sometimes less. For instance, the Camry Hybrid's comparably equipped gasser counterpart is the Camry XLE. Sans the sunroof and hybrid system, the two have identical features. The cost difference is about $2200, but a tax credit should drop the difference closer to $1500.

Also, look at the power outputs. The net power output of the Camry Hybrid is 187HP under the revised testing protocols, compared to 158 with the gasser version. As a comparison, the 97-01 Camry 3.0L V6 produces 192HP under the older testing protocol, so the current Hybrid actually delivers equal or slightly more power than an older V6.

In addition, under most driving conditions, the conventional Camry will average 20-25 mpg under a mix of stop-n-go driving and extremely short trips. The Hybrid will average between 30-35. Under such circumstances, the added cost should be regained within 100k miles of operation. Couple that with a 150k mile battery warranty in several states (replacement cost is $2500), a virtually bulletproof transmission, users with over 200k miles, along with the added perks of owning a Hybrid (insurance discounts with some companies, free parking in some cities, carpool lanes), and you have a clear winner in my book.

 

[g20ooh]

Actually thats a great question and one we can " somewhat " answer .
Think about production costs .... as you know they must necc. incorporate all energy costs ... so.... if we really knew those.....and actually we have some clues if they are not " legitimate " spin ( have to work backwards ) . This is understandably very sensitive material (actually some of the most ) , but in the interest of everything from investor relations to PR clues have been dropped and well , DEPENDING , - it would appear that internal subsidies at this point ( not previously ) are between "about " 200 to 3,200$ per hybrid . This varies with which hybrid we are talking about .
So..... and I'm going to ignore everything else and grossly oversimplify to say the following ; they are higher but competitive and not a reason to go forward .
There is an energy cost that I don't have anything up to date on and that is disposal . All vehicles have a cost in this regard and all that would matter is the difference - most likely the battery processing at scrappage . One obvious variable there is battery condition at scrappage ; if the battery was truly reusable it may be less than a normal vehicle whereas if the battery was damaged or used up it might be at least a little more ( Then again it might not ) . Like production , only stronger , " very , very probably " not a deal breaker .....at least on energy costs .


Maybe more importantly taking the longer view , is the best estimates I've seen suggest that assuming all goes well , hybrids will end up with somewhere between 2.5 and 12.5% of the market somewhere 8 - 12 -15 years out . Even the low number would not happen W/O reasonable energy costs of production .

 

[Benzadmiral]

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. . . gas prices have to reach high sustained levels. . . .

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The stuff is already at a high sustained level. It's not dipping below 2.00/gallon, so it's sustained, and it's for sure too darn high already!

 

[Colt]

At least at this point,I have absolutely no interest in the purchase of a hybrid vehicle.

 

[ekpolk]

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At least at this point,I have absolutely no interest in the purchase of a hybrid vehicle.

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That's perfectly fine! I guess we cancel each other out -- 'cuz I'm not givin' up mine unless I've got a gun pointed at my head!!!

 

[Titan]

I like the Hybrid idea, and the people that I personally know that have them, love them.

However, I don't really think converting to hybrids is the solution. Many Diesels and even a few gasoline powered vehicles can achieve very good MPG. What would make a greater impact is to remove the "arms race" attitude of the consumer when it comes to engine Power. How many people actually have a performance requirement NEED (not want) of 250 HP in a passenger car? Precious few. And next year's model is touted to have 265 HP, compared to a competitor's 260 HP, etc. Dodge Hemi engine? Do the majority of people that have this gas-guzzler NEED the Hemi engine, or, are they more like the goofball actors that portray a subset of the typical Hemi lover?

I recall my 1977 Datsun 200 series Z inline 6 had one of the more powerful engines of it's day...about 170 HP...enough to powerslide it through entrance ramps onto the HWY in the AM when it wasn't crowded. Do we really NEED an additional 100 + HP? No. It's a choice.

And, as a nation, we most often choose to moan and complain about the cost of fuel, as we send our young people to fight and die to protect the flow of crude, as we drive to the supermarket in our 250+HP SUV's. We get what we deserve...well, that's not entirely true. If we were a kindergartener that was acting as selfish and spoiled as we are as a nation, we'd deserve to be put in a corner and punished. As it stands now, we're not really being punished. Yet. I think a bigger punishment for our bad behavior is looming in the not-too-distant future.

Hybrids? Sure. Guzzlers? Getting rid of them would do more good than adding Hybrids.

 

[javacontour]

There are several points.

Someone quoted the Honda CRX HF at 51 MPG. That is probably before the EPA tried their first change at calculating MPG. So I'm not sure we can trust or rely on comparisons in that regard.

Second, it's been noted that we are in a horsepower war. This is true. Let's add to that the fact that cars are getting heavier, not lighter. I suspect there is a lot of fuel savings to be had if we could get cars back down to their weights about 20 or so years ago.

Third, fuel prices today are still relatively cheap, and compared to the price of vehicles, fuel costs are still not a major concern to new car buyers. As I've said before, fuel costs don't get anywhere near 1/2 the price of operating a vehicle at $2.50/gallon until you get down to the $2000 vehicle price range. I drive 25K miles / year in a vehicle that I paid $2500 for 47 months ago. My total costs to drive are $0.129/mile. I average 32 MPG, at with fuel at $2.50 my costs are $0.078/mile or just a bit over 1/2 the cost of owning and operating the vehicle.

If you look at a new $25K Hybrid that gets twice the fuel economy that my Prizm gets, the fuel costs go to $0.039/mile, but if all you paid for was the car, and drove it 200K miles, you still have $0.125/mile over that 200K miles to just buy the car, and are still paying more per mile to drive than the $2500 beater scenario. Given that you'll need to buy tires, do oil changes, and other periodic maintenance and perhaps even repairs, you cannot get ahead economically right now by buying a hybrid.

Complaints about fuel prices are irrational for folks who've paid tens of thousands of dollars for the vehicle.

I do like the idea of making vehicles more efficient, and I do believe we should reduce or eliminate our dependency on imported oil.

I really believe the only way to do this is to allow gasoline to reach $5/gallon or more. Hybrids (or other fuel saving technology) will sell when there is an economic reason to justify the purchase.

There will be some folks who will make emotional purchases, and trade a paid for vehicle for something that gets better fuel economy, but ends up costing more.

What I'm saying is the "emotional" hybrid buyers are probably now out of the market. Those could be the ones who are greenies or folks who are mad at the oil companies.

So now the market has folks who are examining the economics and folks who don't trust the technology or don't have the money to buy a new hybrid, so sales are dropping at the current asking price.

Also keep in mind that most folks only keep a car for a few years, until the warranty is out. If they cannot recoup the higher costs of a hybrid in that short period of time, it makes no economic sense to purchase that vehicle.

I don't see hybrids being widely accepted until there is a compelling reason in the marketplace for folks to choose a hybrid over current technology.

Like it or not, the reason we have what we have today is because that is what the market/consumer demands. Should something change, then we will have a change in what consumers demand.

 

[oilyriser]

Why did they conecntrate on hybrid versions of cars that already get excellent mpg? If I ran a city taxi fleet, I'd buy hybrid Chevy Impalas... if they made them.

 

[unDummy]

Its a tough sell because their are NOT enough NORMAL vehicles with hybrid powertrains.

I also don't see why I have to subsidize hybrids. Its a car. Why the tax breaks?

I'd rather see my tax dollars spent on more diesel technology for vehicles. I'm a big fan of the VW diesels. Where are the other automakers diesels?

Biodiesel, Ethanol, GasHybrid, overweight and over optioned vehicles = old school
The king is dead, long live the....
NeXBTL, Butanol, DieselHybrid, lightweight vehicles = new

Here legislation that I would support:
All new gasoline vehicles MUST be FFV--methanol, gasoline, ethanol, butanol, isopropanol. I'll decide whatever fuel I want via prices, economics, or feelings. And, unlike hybrids, FFV cost per vehicles is minimal.
All vehicles MUST have a turbo directly injected diesel option.
Engines should be tuned for max efficiency. Sorry, but current least emissions tuning, and emissions component life tuning, doesn't cut it.
Certain patents and hybrid technology should be opened freely to all automakers.
All vehicles need to have standard transmissions with automatics as an option.
All gasoline powered vehicle must have direct gas injection.
Hybrids need to be a simplified.
Starternators should be standard in all vehicles, and starternators can be easily programmed to provide hybrid type boost without all the hybrid complexity or weight.

 

[Titan]

I think the 5.00 per gallon tier is the point we'll have to reach before it really affects people's choices to the point that it makes a significant difference in their choices. We are, oh, so slow to learn, but even slower to change our habits even in the face of the inevitable.

 

[JHZR2]

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Its a tough sell because their are NOT enough NORMAL vehicles with hybrid powertrains.

I also don't see why I have to subsidize hybrids. Its a car. Why the tax breaks?

I'd rather see my tax dollars spent on more diesel technology for vehicles. I'm a big fan of the VW diesels. Where are the other automakers diesels?

Biodiesel, Ethanol, GasHybrid, overweight and over optioned vehicles = old school
The king is dead, long live the....
NeXBTL, Butanol, DieselHybrid, lightweight vehicles = new

Here legislation that I would support:
All new gasoline vehicles MUST be FFV--methanol, gasoline, ethanol, butanol, isopropanol. I'll decide whatever fuel I want via prices, economics, or feelings. And, unlike hybrids, FFV cost per vehicles is minimal.
All vehicles MUST have a turbo directly injected diesel option.
Engines should be tuned for max efficiency. Sorry, but current least emissions tuning, and emissions component life tuning, doesn't cut it.
Certain patents and hybrid technology should be opened freely to all automakers.
All vehicles need to have standard transmissions with automatics as an option.
All gasoline powered vehicle must have direct gas injection.
Hybrids need to be a simplified.
Starternators should be standard in all vehicles, and starternators can be easily programmed to provide hybrid type boost without all the hybrid complexity or weight.

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+100000000000!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

EXCELLENT!

JMH

 

[rpn453]

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Here legislation that I would support:
All new gasoline vehicles MUST be FFV--methanol, gasoline, ethanol, butanol, isopropanol. I'll decide whatever fuel I want via prices, economics, or feelings. And, unlike hybrids, FFV cost per vehicles is minimal.

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But I still don't want to pay it. None of those options can come close to replacing our current transportation energy needs. I'll take plain old gasoline in a fuel-efficient package.

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All vehicles MUST have a turbo directly injected diesel option.

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Diesel is fine if they burn it cleanly, but I don't want it rammed down our throats.

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Engines should be tuned for max efficiency. Sorry, but current least emissions tuning, and emissions component life tuning, doesn't cut it.

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Everything's a compromise. I just want the overall lowest cost option that allows us to live with an acceptable level of pollution.

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Certain patents and hybrid technology should be opened freely to all automakers.

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Would Toyota have spent so much money on R&D if they believed that their patented technology will be used by anyone for free? Let them have their 20 years of benefits for their investment, to encourage further R&D.

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All vehicles need to have standard transmissions with automatics as an option.

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What a waste of energy and resources to design a standard transmission into applications where nobody would buy one! Besides, many autos do as good or better as standards now.

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All gasoline powered vehicle must have direct gas injection.

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If there's a benefit, won't it become standard on its own?

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Hybrids need to be a simplified.

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Let's see that put down in legal terms!

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Starternators should be standard in all vehicles, and starternators can be easily programmed to provide hybrid type boost without all the hybrid complexity or weight.

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Again; if there's a benefit to this system, won't it become standard on its own?

 

[AcuraTech]

One thing I think they could and should implement across the nation is emissions testing. Do something like they have here in IL. OBDII cars are scanned to make sure all the readiness tests have run and there are no DTC's. Anything older gets a tailpipe test.

That would serve to get alot of the in-efficient, poorly maintained, gas guzzling junkers off the road.

 

[ekpolk]

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Its a tough sell because their are NOT enough NORMAL vehicles with hybrid powertrains.

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1. Lexus RX
2. Lexus GS
3. Toyota Highlander
4. Toyota Camry

Beyond the Prius, which really isn't that "abnormal" (it's just a hatchback fer cryin' out loud...), these are the Hybrid offerings from just Toyota. Seems like a pretty "normal" group of vehicles, and the Camry is about as "normal" as one can get!

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I also don't see why I have to subsidize hybrids. Its a car. Why the tax breaks?

I'd rather see my tax dollars spent on more diesel technology for vehicles. I'm a big fan of the VW diesels. Where are the other automakers diesels?

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I don't really disagree, but you'll have to call your Congressman about that issue. Btw, I got mine used -- alas, no credit for me...

. . .

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Hybrids need to be a simplified.
Starternators should be standard in all vehicles, and starternators can be easily programmed to provide hybrid type boost without all the hybrid complexity or weight.

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Hybrid "complexity" is part truth, part myth. In the Toyota HSD ("hybrid synergy drive") architecture, which is shared by all the Toyota/Lex hybrids, the CVT transmission is amazingly simple compared to a contemporary stepped automatic. All it is, really, is a simple planetary gear set. That's it.

You want a starternator? It's already there, sort of, in the Toyota HSD layout. MG1, the smaller of two motor-generators in the basic HSD layout is the starter for the gas engine, it's a drive motor, and of course, when reversed, it's a generator too. HSD cars have no tradtional alternator at all (more simplicity), all juice derives from the two MGs. As long as I own my Prius, I'll never have to worry about being let down by a cheap Chinese aftermarket replacement alternator.

EDIT: One more thing, no belts on an HSD car either. The 1NZ-FXE has a timing chain, and the engine room is totally free of pulleys, belts, or any such hardware -- yet more simplicity.

Last comment for tonight. Broadly speaking, I think most people misconceive hybrids altogether. They're not strange alien things, totally separate from current automotive reality. They're really just gas (or diesel) vehicles that happen to be able to capture and save the energy most drivers waste when they brake or decelerate. The concept can be overlaid on virtually any internal combustion vehicle regardless of fuel and configuration, diesel, turbo, turbodiesel, or what have you.

This concept will become more and more accepted and common as the systems are refined, costs reduced, and as gas continues its climb upward.

 

[JHZR2]

The problem with the full compliment of toyota hybrids is that they use them to make more than normal horsepower, with 'good enough' fuel economy.

I demand 'good enough' horsepower, with stellar fuel economy.

Unfortunately joe blow wants to hear the tires chirp when he mashes the go-pedal, and only knows how to compare numbers.

JMH

 

[Titan]

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The problem with the full compliment of toyota hybrids is that they use them to make more than normal horsepower, with 'good enough' fuel economy.

I demand 'good enough' horsepower, with stellar fuel economy.

Unfortunately joe blow wants to hear the tires chirp when he mashes the go-pedal, and only knows how to compare numbers.

JMH

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That's a fair summary in my book! I just wish people would do more thinking about what their choices mean in the long run.

 

[BrianWC]

Please continue to hate them so I can buy mine cheaper. Do any of you realize demand has been so #@$%! high for these cars that they are getting $7-10k over recommended retail even here at my lowly po-dunk Toyota dealer in Louisiana, far from the DiCaprios and Diaz'es? Someone's buying them somewhere.

 

[The Critic]

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Please continue to hate them so I can buy mine cheaper. Do any of you realize demand has been so #@$%! high for these cars that they are getting $7-10k over recommended retail even here at my lowly po-dunk Toyota dealer in Louisiana, far from the DiCaprios and Diaz'es? Someone's buying them somewhere.

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No way, the PRIUS and CAMRY HYBRID are both selling for invoice or near invoice around here. Get yourself a $200 plane ticket to Sacramento and you can drive home in one for MUCH less.

 

[Bill in Utah]

Agree,

Prius here are a slow sale. The local Toyota stealer who last year was getting $5k over sticker has prob 15 at least in a row. (its sad when there are rows of cars and they don't wash them or move them around to at least make the dealership look fresh)

They are offering low interest rates and dealing with the prices to sell.

The Camrys hybrid though are another story. They seem to be at sticker or above.

The Corolla and Yaris seem to be in short supply as are the RAV4.

Bill

 

[The Critic]

Toyota's pricing system is setup to allow far greater margins on fully loaded models than the base models. Thus, one is more likely to obtain a good price on a fully loaded model than a basement trim.

As an example, a Camry Hybrid here in Sacramento/SF Bay Area will run you $25.5K for the base model ($700 over invoice), or $28K for a fully loaded model, which is right at invoice.

The Prius sells at invoice or a hair below so it's not worth discussing. They are still selling like hotcakes though, BTW, at least around here.