Will today's cars last 20 years?

[Jarlaxle]

Originally Posted By: fdcg27
Originally Posted By: Jarlaxle
Originally Posted By: fdcg27
Originally Posted By: PimTac
I’ll bet that this same discussion took place twenty years ago and twenty years before that.


I'll bet you're right.
The stuff that matters, like EFI, turbocharging and distributorless ignition have been around for a long time.
The stuff that doesn't matter, like the touch screens, have also been around for a long time.
Will a car bought today last as long as one bought twenty years ago?
Probably not.
It'll probably last longer.


Until the touch screen that runs the HVAC/stereo/etc. fails, and a replacement costs more than the car is worth.


...and by that time, there'll be plenty of alternatives from yards, Chinese reman shops and probably even brand new ones from the Chinese factory that banged them out for the OEM offered cheap from a variety of sources.
Touch screens are neither new nor complex tech.


Until you discover that they won't work, because they need to have the right VIN programmed into them...that, of course, requires a dealer! Bonus if the dealer flatly refuses to touch an aftermarket unit! Not the hardware, the SOFTWARE!

 

[PimTac]

Originally Posted By: jeepman3071
Originally Posted By: SilverFusion2010
Originally Posted By: AZjeff
Originally Posted By: SilverFusion2010
I think yes. Better materials, better designs. Just don't buy cars made on Mondays or Fridays


Does anyone really not buy a car because of that? Is there empirical proof and how would you even find out what day it was built?


1. Don't know
2. Hungover on Monday, mind not at work Friday.
3. VIN number


I didn't know robots had these issues...





That’s the big difference between 20-30 years ago and now. Quality vehicles are assembled by robots. Engines too.

 

[Reggaemon]

Will todays cars, I take that to mean cars that are being made now. 2017-2018, not the Camry that was made in 1994 or the Jeep thats 18 year old. We know those cars can last 20 years or more. Will a 2018 Honda CR-V with a 1.5 turbo and CVT be around in 2038?

 

[jeepman3071]

Originally Posted By: philipp10
I cannot understand why I would want a car to last that long. Safety technology is changing so quickly that an old car actually costs you more in higher insurance premiums...of course offset by the low depreciation of an old car. But overall, I want something no older than maybe 14 years.


What??

I've NEVER seen an older car be more expensive to insure than a newer car unless it is an expensive classic. The insurance companies insure your car based on the value. You can get certain discounts for safety features, but your older car won't cost you more because it is not as safe, not sure who told you that. Older cars are cheap to insure, plain and simple. Insurance premiums go up because of increases in accident risk, such the area you drive, age, previous accidents, how powerful your car is, etc.

Insurance companies base premiums around the probability that they will be paying out for damage to your vehicle.

 

[fdcg27]

Yeah, until you discover that software workarounds are common and also not that hard.
This cheap patch coding will be included to flash any cheap aftermarket unit into seamless operation.
How else do you suppose people get the actual mileage rolled back on a modern car prior to turning it in at the end of their lease?
Can't be done?
I know folks who have had it done.

 

[PandaBear]

Depends. Japanese electronics most likely yes, American and Korean probably too. European? I wouldn't count on it.

The biggest problem I see that can't last 20 years like they used to are:

1) CVT transmissions if they are not electric motor based planetary gears.
2) Direct injection intake valve deposit
3) stretching timing chain or worn nylon chain guide
4) Barely enough precious metal cat converter
5) Hybrid or EV battery
6) All those delicate variable valve timing stuff
7) Maintenance free transmission
8) Low friction / tension piston rings
9) Turbo anything

If I were to buy a car that last 20 years I'd try my best to keep things simple, like if I buy a washer or fridge today.

 

[fdcg27]

You have a point.
Simple with less to go wrong is more likely to last than complicated with more stuff to break.
OTOH, in constant dollar terms, cars are pretty cheap to buy today.
Almost like a washer or a fridge.
One might come out ahead replacing cars every ten years, selling them after you've gotten a decent amount of use out of them but while they still have decent resale value and aren't yet repair hogs.

 

[clinebarger]

People had this exact discussion 20 years ago.

 

[oilpsi2high]

I don't see computers and electronics just failing for no reason. There are plenty of cars from the 90's and 2000's still on the road today with their original electronics.

 

[oilpsi2high]

Originally Posted By: clinebarger
People had this exact discussion 20 years ago.


I did, 10 years ago. Everyone was like "oh that car has heated seats and all of this electronic gadetry that you'll HAVE TO GO TO THE DEALER TO REPAIR!"

Nope. Actually bought my own software and tuned the thing myself.

Never once had it in for an electrical issue, and all of those parts still function normally.

 

[PandaBear]

Originally Posted By: oilpsi2high
I did, 10 years ago. Everyone was like "oh that car has heated seats and all of this electronic gadetry that you'll HAVE TO GO TO THE DEALER TO REPAIR!"


and 20 years ago it was power window and door lock. I know people who buy manual for this reason. It turns out to be true for me, but I also acquired some DIY skill and am fairly comfortable junk yard shopping now too.

 

[Broo]

If well cared for, why not ? My daily driver I bought new is now 12 years old. Aside from some cracking dash noise, there is no obvious sign of being this age. Younger neglected cars look older in my workplace's parking lot. Some parts may become harder to find however. I should be fine for engine parts if needed, as this engine is still produced to this day. I don't think I'll keep it long enough to reach 20 years however.

The Echo didn't sell well in the US, but in eastern Canada where gas is expensive they sold TONS of them, so they show up regularly in junkyards, usually accidented.

 

[jeepman3071]

Originally Posted By: PandaBear
Depends. Japanese electronics most likely yes, American and Korean probably too. European? I wouldn't count on it.



I disagree on the European cars, because complex electronics have been the name of their game for some time now. Many of them have an enthusiast following which helps grow their aftermarket support. I'd say there will be more support 20 years from now for an Audi A4 or VW GTI than there will be for a Kia Optima, simply because there will be more enthusiasts willing to fix them.

 

[fdcg27]

The Euro makers have never been as good with the gizmos as have the Japanese and maybe the Koreans.
OTOH, you make a good point in that people will spend more time, effort and money on a nice old VW, Audi, BMW or Benz than they would ever consider devoting to some Camry badged as a Lexus or some Accord badged as an Acura.
We need not even discuss the throwaway car brands.
If there's interest, then there's demand without regard to age.
Really old Ford parts are readily available as are parts for any MGB, with the last one rolling off the line at Abingdon nearly forty years ago.

 

[eyeofthetiger]

My concern with my Fiesta is the sheer number of plastic parts under the hood that are critical to the engine's function. I have worked on enough high-mileage, late-model cars to know how brittle and useless these plastic parts become when exposed to heat and time. Maybe I should get a big hood scoop to let the heat out.

 

[wander2039]

The Festiva is 26 years old and everyone was saying that back when they were new. Don't see any difference in our 02 and 04.. no difference in 17-18's either. Just like all three of those examples parts started out expensive but now is fairly inexpensive. Dang I'm sounding old.

 

[billt460]

Originally Posted By: AZjeff
Here in the SW you see lots of older cars & trucks as daily drivers. Rust obviously isn't an issue here and it isn't likely that the owners are spending big bucks to keep them on the road. Got to wondering about the cars we have in the garage now with all the electronics and 6 speeds and AFM and LEDs etc if they'll go that far without major ($$) failures. Are today's automotive computers and electronics robust enough to be expected to last? What about the high pressure fuel systems?


This is why I purchased the Chrysler Max Care, Unlimited Time And Mileage Warranty with my new 2015 Jeep Grand Cherokee. Unless it gets wrecked or stolen, it's likely to be the last new vehicle I'll ever purchase. (I'm still driving my 1991 Ford F-150). And it's been a VERY dependable vehicle for the last 26 years, with no end in sight. But most everything is mechanical.

There is so much electronic wizardry on this new Jeep, it scares me. And all of it costs a fortune to repair or replace out of warranty. For the $2,350.00 Max Care cost me, the total peace of mind is worth every penny. The entire policy will pay for itself in one large repair. For people who lease, or else trade in every 15 minutes, it's not worth it. But I keep my vehicles. So it's definitely worth it. And as far as I know, no other car maker besides Chrysler offers it. And I researched it heavily before I bought.

 

[Garak]

What will Chrysler do, though, say 15 years down the road in the unfortunate eventuality that an expensive repair costs more than the vehicle's book value? Will they just buy you out?

 

[billt460]

Originally Posted By: Garak
What will Chrysler do, though, say 15 years down the road in the unfortunate eventuality that an expensive repair costs more than the vehicle's book value? Will they just buy you out?


Basically yes. Say 15 years down the road the transmission takes a dump. (A new dealer installed ZF 8-Speed automatic runs around $4,500 installed). If the Blue Book value of the vehicle is only $3,500.00 at the time, they'll give you a check for that amount, and cut you loose. After that you're on your own. Even then, writing a check for $1,000.00 to make up the difference, is a lot better than writing one for $4,500.00. And again, it paid for the Max Care, and then some.

 

[Vikas]

And you actually believe Chrysler will be there in 15 years to pay you, right?