I think yes. Better materials, better designs. Just don't buy cars made on Mondays or Fridays
Will today's cars last 20 years?
- Thread starter AZjeff
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I don't have anything fancy in my stable, so if rust doesn't kill my cars and my needs/wants don't change they should last 20 years. However the newest line of cars with adaptive cruise controls, laser and radar sensors, multiple touchscreens etc. may have troubles with these items, especially in salt belt areas. And while these things will not kill a car, I have a feeling many of them will be scrapped/traded in because these things will be expensive to repair and most likely hard to obtain after 10+ years.
Originally Posted By: Jarlaxle
Originally Posted By: fdcg27
Originally Posted By: PimTac
I’ll bet that this same discussion took place twenty years ago and twenty years before that.
I'll bet you're right.
The stuff that matters, like EFI, turbocharging and distributorless ignition have been around for a long time.
The stuff that doesn't matter, like the touch screens, have also been around for a long time.
Will a car bought today last as long as one bought twenty years ago?
Probably not.
It'll probably last longer.
Until the touch screen that runs the HVAC/stereo/etc. fails, and a replacement costs more than the car is worth.
...and by that time, there'll be plenty of alternatives from yards, Chinese reman shops and probably even brand new ones from the Chinese factory that banged them out for the OEM offered cheap from a variety of sources.
Touch screens are neither new nor complex tech.
Originally Posted By: fdcg27
Originally Posted By: PimTac
I’ll bet that this same discussion took place twenty years ago and twenty years before that.
I'll bet you're right.
The stuff that matters, like EFI, turbocharging and distributorless ignition have been around for a long time.
The stuff that doesn't matter, like the touch screens, have also been around for a long time.
Will a car bought today last as long as one bought twenty years ago?
Probably not.
It'll probably last longer.
Until the touch screen that runs the HVAC/stereo/etc. fails, and a replacement costs more than the car is worth.
...and by that time, there'll be plenty of alternatives from yards, Chinese reman shops and probably even brand new ones from the Chinese factory that banged them out for the OEM offered cheap from a variety of sources.
Touch screens are neither new nor complex tech.
AZjeff
$50 Site Donor 2023
Originally Posted By: SilverFusion2010
I think yes. Better materials, better designs. Just don't buy cars made on Mondays or Fridays
Does anyone really not buy a car because of that? Is there empirical proof and how would you even find out what day it was built?
I think yes. Better materials, better designs. Just don't buy cars made on Mondays or Fridays
Does anyone really not buy a car because of that? Is there empirical proof and how would you even find out what day it was built?
I am younger, but old enough to remember when EFI came into the mainstream. I remember people saying that the car would not make it 10 years because of the electronics, people calling it "fuel Infection" ect..
Aside from a vehicle that is extremely high maintenance, or had a serious design defect, I would see no reason a car purchased today will not be around in 20 years.
We have a 13 year old van with VSC,TC, multible airbags ect, and I see no reason why it wont make it 7 more years.
If there is a large number of touchscreen failures, the aftermarket will step in and make replacements. They always do.
Aside from a vehicle that is extremely high maintenance, or had a serious design defect, I would see no reason a car purchased today will not be around in 20 years.
We have a 13 year old van with VSC,TC, multible airbags ect, and I see no reason why it wont make it 7 more years.
If there is a large number of touchscreen failures, the aftermarket will step in and make replacements. They always do.
The sled is now 20+ yrs old and has accrued 225,000+ miles. Original turbo + transmission + motor. Still has 31k mi. left to equal the SAAB 900T I drove before.
The elec. climate control unit (ECC) went toes up a few years ago. I got lucky and found one in a junk yard. It needed to be adjusted using an Autodiagnos scanner to make it work correctly however.
The wiring harness & connectors in the engine compartment has needed a few repairs where insulation has rotted off.
I do 98% of all work myself. If I had to rely on a shop it probably wouldn't be worth it.
The elec. climate control unit (ECC) went toes up a few years ago. I got lucky and found one in a junk yard. It needed to be adjusted using an Autodiagnos scanner to make it work correctly however.
The wiring harness & connectors in the engine compartment has needed a few repairs where insulation has rotted off.
I do 98% of all work myself. If I had to rely on a shop it probably wouldn't be worth it.
Originally Posted By: Jarlaxle
Originally Posted By: Artem
Originally Posted By: skyactiv
Some people think todays vehicles are better than vehicles from 20 years ago. I highly doubt a 2018 Honda Civic 1.5T CVT will be as reliable as an old 1998 1.6
5 speed manual was.
Well comparing a 5 speed vs a CVT is silly. I'm sure the 6 speed version will last longer if driven properly. Can't say the same about the Turbo. That will need to be replaced in 10 years and I can see many of these hitting the junk yard as a result of the owner not willing too or being able to replace a $2,000 Turbo.
Do you have any actual EVIDENCE of this "fact", or did you just squat and bear down?
Honda CVT are known for being problematic. A turbo only adds to the complexity of engine and emissions.
Originally Posted By: Artem
Originally Posted By: skyactiv
Some people think todays vehicles are better than vehicles from 20 years ago. I highly doubt a 2018 Honda Civic 1.5T CVT will be as reliable as an old 1998 1.6
5 speed manual was.
Well comparing a 5 speed vs a CVT is silly. I'm sure the 6 speed version will last longer if driven properly. Can't say the same about the Turbo. That will need to be replaced in 10 years and I can see many of these hitting the junk yard as a result of the owner not willing too or being able to replace a $2,000 Turbo.
Do you have any actual EVIDENCE of this "fact", or did you just squat and bear down?
Honda CVT are known for being problematic. A turbo only adds to the complexity of engine and emissions.
Measuring by years is not a great indicator. If a car is only driven 5,000 miles a year sure it could last 20 years especially if it doesn't have to contend with bad weather creating conditions for corrosion and rust.
If a car is driven 50,000 miles a year it most likely won't last 20 years most likely without significant investment.
Now if you want to talk about mileage or operational time then I would say vehicles today last far longer than that of vehicles decades ago. Their weakness is the body panels not putting up with corrosion/rust but steps can be taken to extend their life for as long as the major components last like engines / transmissions.
The only caveat to this is vehicles with known problems that decrease lifespan.
In terms of electronics this is like anything else. They will fail from time to time because of their complex nature and the wild environmental conditions they can experience. 100F summers and 0F degree winters for example. Whereas your TV which spends its whole life at room temperature never has to contend with this.
If a car is driven 50,000 miles a year it most likely won't last 20 years most likely without significant investment.
Now if you want to talk about mileage or operational time then I would say vehicles today last far longer than that of vehicles decades ago. Their weakness is the body panels not putting up with corrosion/rust but steps can be taken to extend their life for as long as the major components last like engines / transmissions.
The only caveat to this is vehicles with known problems that decrease lifespan.
In terms of electronics this is like anything else. They will fail from time to time because of their complex nature and the wild environmental conditions they can experience. 100F summers and 0F degree winters for example. Whereas your TV which spends its whole life at room temperature never has to contend with this.
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Originally Posted By: AZjeff
Originally Posted By: SilverFusion2010
I think yes. Better materials, better designs. Just don't buy cars made on Mondays or Fridays
Does anyone really not buy a car because of that? Is there empirical proof and how would you even find out what day it was built?
1. Don't know
2. Hungover on Monday, mind not at work Friday.
3. VIN number
Originally Posted By: SilverFusion2010
I think yes. Better materials, better designs. Just don't buy cars made on Mondays or Fridays
Does anyone really not buy a car because of that? Is there empirical proof and how would you even find out what day it was built?
1. Don't know
2. Hungover on Monday, mind not at work Friday.
3. VIN number
Originally Posted By: skyactiv
Some people think todays vehicles are better than vehicles from 20 years ago. I highly doubt a 2018 Honda Civic 1.5T CVT will be as reliable as an old 1998 1.6 5 speed manual was.
You can still get a 2.0 liter NA engine with a manual in the base LX Civic sedan or coupe. But if you get the hatchback version it comes standard with the 1.5T.
New Fusions can still be had with the 2.5 NA engine and should last a long time. 200k + miles while one of the turbo engine might be more of a gamble.
Some people think todays vehicles are better than vehicles from 20 years ago. I highly doubt a 2018 Honda Civic 1.5T CVT will be as reliable as an old 1998 1.6 5 speed manual was.
You can still get a 2.0 liter NA engine with a manual in the base LX Civic sedan or coupe. But if you get the hatchback version it comes standard with the 1.5T.
New Fusions can still be had with the 2.5 NA engine and should last a long time. 200k + miles while one of the turbo engine might be more of a gamble.
AZjeff
$50 Site Donor 2023
Originally Posted By: SilverFusion2010
Originally Posted By: AZjeff
Originally Posted By: SilverFusion2010
I think yes. Better materials, better designs. Just don't buy cars made on Mondays or Fridays
Does anyone really not buy a car because of that? Is there empirical proof and how would you even find out what day it was built?
1. Don't know
2. Hungover on Monday, mind not at work Friday.
3. VIN number
VIN shows month and year only.
Originally Posted By: AZjeff
Originally Posted By: SilverFusion2010
I think yes. Better materials, better designs. Just don't buy cars made on Mondays or Fridays
Does anyone really not buy a car because of that? Is there empirical proof and how would you even find out what day it was built?
1. Don't know
2. Hungover on Monday, mind not at work Friday.
3. VIN number
VIN shows month and year only.
Originally Posted By: Kage860
History will probably shows ‘90s japanese cars to be the longest lasting in a general sense. But todays cars I believe are still more than capable of going 20 years. With the price of cars and trucks going up seemingly faster than inflation people will need to drive them longer to justify that cost.
But I see many more domestics of that era on the road.
History will probably shows ‘90s japanese cars to be the longest lasting in a general sense. But todays cars I believe are still more than capable of going 20 years. With the price of cars and trucks going up seemingly faster than inflation people will need to drive them longer to justify that cost.
But I see many more domestics of that era on the road.
I think it will come to how many of the cars were produced. If the aftermarket and OEMs can make money with parts, they will. For example, it's not hard to find parts for 20-30 y/o Chevy trucks.
Originally Posted By: Leo99
If you stick with a high volume vehicle, there will be a demand and availability for its parts in 20 years. There will be youtube and 3rd parties to deal with any common repairs or retrofits.
This.
My Jeep is 17 years old, and what will likely kill it is rust since I live in New England, not parts availability. They were so popular that aftermarket parts are very easy to find.
I think a lot of newer cars have better corrosion protection though. My GF has a 2006 BMW 325xi with 130,000 miles. It's AWD, and is driven in the snow/salt quite frequently. There is no rust to speak of anywhere. Her other vehicles had significant rust by 100,000 miles. While I'm not a huge fan of flimsy plastic bumpers and running boards, they don't rust.
If you stick with a high volume vehicle, there will be a demand and availability for its parts in 20 years. There will be youtube and 3rd parties to deal with any common repairs or retrofits.
This.
My Jeep is 17 years old, and what will likely kill it is rust since I live in New England, not parts availability. They were so popular that aftermarket parts are very easy to find.
I think a lot of newer cars have better corrosion protection though. My GF has a 2006 BMW 325xi with 130,000 miles. It's AWD, and is driven in the snow/salt quite frequently. There is no rust to speak of anywhere. Her other vehicles had significant rust by 100,000 miles. While I'm not a huge fan of flimsy plastic bumpers and running boards, they don't rust.
Originally Posted By: SilverFusion2010
Originally Posted By: AZjeff
Originally Posted By: SilverFusion2010
I think yes. Better materials, better designs. Just don't buy cars made on Mondays or Fridays
Does anyone really not buy a car because of that? Is there empirical proof and how would you even find out what day it was built?
1. Don't know
2. Hungover on Monday, mind not at work Friday.
3. VIN number
How many auto plants only run a 5 day week anymore? I thought most went to 4 on 4 off rotating shifts so in theory any day could be a "monday" or a "friday"?
I was a Dealer tech for several years and the warranty work that was done was almost never for something that wasn't screwed together properly, it was always a design defect, and usually it was something that was common for that make/model.
Originally Posted By: AZjeff
Originally Posted By: SilverFusion2010
I think yes. Better materials, better designs. Just don't buy cars made on Mondays or Fridays
Does anyone really not buy a car because of that? Is there empirical proof and how would you even find out what day it was built?
1. Don't know
2. Hungover on Monday, mind not at work Friday.
3. VIN number
How many auto plants only run a 5 day week anymore? I thought most went to 4 on 4 off rotating shifts so in theory any day could be a "monday" or a "friday"?
I was a Dealer tech for several years and the warranty work that was done was almost never for something that wasn't screwed together properly, it was always a design defect, and usually it was something that was common for that make/model.
Originally Posted By: SilverFusion2010
Originally Posted By: AZjeff
Originally Posted By: SilverFusion2010
I think yes. Better materials, better designs. Just don't buy cars made on Mondays or Fridays
Does anyone really not buy a car because of that? Is there empirical proof and how would you even find out what day it was built?
1. Don't know
2. Hungover on Monday, mind not at work Friday.
3. VIN number
I didn't know robots had these issues...
Originally Posted By: AZjeff
Originally Posted By: SilverFusion2010
I think yes. Better materials, better designs. Just don't buy cars made on Mondays or Fridays
Does anyone really not buy a car because of that? Is there empirical proof and how would you even find out what day it was built?
1. Don't know
2. Hungover on Monday, mind not at work Friday.
3. VIN number
I didn't know robots had these issues...
I cannot understand why I would want a car to last that long. Safety technology is changing so quickly that an old car actually costs you more in higher insurance premiums...of course offset by the low depreciation of an old car. But overall, I want something no older than maybe 14 years.
ls1mike
$50 Site Donor 2024
Trans Am is 18 and has a lot of similar workings as current offerings. I bet the [censored] out of it when I do drive. Truck is 16 OBDII, no issues and tow the trailer fine. I bet I have another 10 to 15 useful years out of the truck.
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AZjeff
$50 Site Donor 2023
Originally Posted By: philipp10
I cannot understand why I would want a car to last that long. Safety technology is changing so quickly that an old car actually costs you more in higher insurance premiums...of course offset by the low depreciation of an old car. But overall, I want something no older than maybe 14 years.
Me either. I have no desire to own a daily driver car for 20 or even 15 years, I've owned the '86 Samurai for 16 years but it's a toy as was the 02 Xterra . What prompted the question was all the early 2000s, 90s, and even 80s cars in daily use here. Lots of people need low price cars to go about their lives, what will cars of the past few years be like for that end of life cycle user?
I cannot understand why I would want a car to last that long. Safety technology is changing so quickly that an old car actually costs you more in higher insurance premiums...of course offset by the low depreciation of an old car. But overall, I want something no older than maybe 14 years.
Me either. I have no desire to own a daily driver car for 20 or even 15 years, I've owned the '86 Samurai for 16 years but it's a toy as was the 02 Xterra . What prompted the question was all the early 2000s, 90s, and even 80s cars in daily use here. Lots of people need low price cars to go about their lives, what will cars of the past few years be like for that end of life cycle user?
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