Two Thirds Of New Cars Will Be Electric/Hybrids by 2032

[SC Maintenance]

Buying EV new and keeping it for 10 years may be cheaper in maintenance perspective vs keeping a 20 year old 200k mile Corolla.

This has never been the case that trading cars out is cheaper overall. Its the reason that current auto age average is 12.5 years and well over 20% of vehicles are over 20 years old, old gassers are always cheaper, especially 200K mile Corolla's. Not to mention median income is $75K, most households have no chance to afford a new car.

So yes, maybe works in California. But the EPA forcing standards are National, so that doesn't work.

So I don't see this model as practical either?

 

[alarmguy]

Maybe, maybe not, time will tell. Hopefully I'm still around,

Yeah, I know, me two, I know by that time I will be getting close to the average male lifespan and wonder sometimes, yet I still feel like I’m 30 at least in my mind yet the statistics are there. Gosh I wish I was thirty again, man do I

Trying to stay fit all the time, doing landscaping on the new home, got 5,500 lbs of cement Belgian blocks and 120 bags of mulch delivered last few days, for the landscaping I’m doing myself.

Yet last night went out to dinner with wife and friends, had two Sweet water 420 beers with dinner. Got home and think the beer made my heart go nuts. LOL felt it racing, Apple Watch didn’t seem able to get a good ECG in three attempts heart rate elevated… go figure. Got up this morning and heart rate was elevated all night to what would be more like an awake reading for me but I was sleeping. (Perfect timing to read this post this morning)
I’m like what the ___?

 

[demarpaint]

Yeah, I know, me two, I know by that time I will be getting close to the average male lifespan and wonder sometimes, yet I still feel like I’m 30 at least in my mind yet the statistics are there. Gosh I wish I was thirty again, man do I

Trying to stay fit all the time, doing landscaping on the new home, got 5,500 lbs of cement Belgian blocks and 120 bags of mulch delivered last few days, for the landscaping I’m doing myself.

Yet last night went out to dinner with wife and friends, had two Sweet water 420 beers with dinner. Got home and think the beer made my heart go nuts. LOL felt it racing, Apple Watch didn’t seem able to get a good ECG in three attempts heart rate elevated… go figure. Got up this morning and heart rate was elevated all night to what would be more like an awake reading for me but I was sleeping. (Perfect timing to read this post this morning)
I’m like what the ___?

I'd have that checked out my friend! My observation is as we get older, we age in dog years, at least that's what it feels like to me. My mind thinks I'm 30 and my body seems to think otherwise. I'm in good shape for my age but that can change in the blink of an eye. Happy Easter!!

 

[SC Maintenance]

I'd have that checked out my friend! My observation is as we get older, we age in dog years, at least that's what it feels like to me. My mind thinks I'm 30 and my body seems to think otherwise. I'm in good shape for my age but that can change in the blink of an eye. Happy Easter!!

^^^ This.

 

[alarmguy]

I'd have that checked out my friend! My observation is as we get older, we age in dog years, at least that's what it feels like to me. My mind thinks I'm 30 and my body seems to think otherwise. I'm in good shape for my age but that can change in the blink of an eye. Happy Easter!!

Happy Easter!

 

[4WD]

Happy Easter!

Happy Easter …
have been mandated to only use the Eveready bunny by 2030

 

[SammyChevelleTypeS3]

Doesn't Biden have a vintage Corvette? Is he going to scrap it or is this a case of, do as I say not as I do?

"THEY" are going to demand that we do "as they say" while they continue to do just whatever they want to.
They are the elite/spoiled/privileged who do not have to follow or comply with rules and laws they make for the
masses.. Us commoners, The Sheeples!!!

 

[Torrid]

"THEY" are going to demand that we do "as they say" while they continue to do just whatever they want to.
They are the elite/spoiled/privileged who do not have to follow or comply with rules and laws they make for the
masses.. Us commoners, The Sheeples!!!

No one is saying anything about classic cars. Everything is about reduction of emissions and higher CAFE standards going forward. Not once has anyone suggested in any of these stories or conversations yanking stuff off the road that’s already there, especially vintage and collectible vehicles.

 

[SammyChevelleTypeS3]

No one is saying anything about classic cars. Everything is about reduction of emissions and higher CAFE standards going forward. Not once has anyone suggested in any of these stories or conversations yanking stuff off the road that’s already there, especially vintage and collectible vehicles.

Thank You.

 

[JeffKeryk]

So then by extension the goal must be for people to not have cars, because only a small percentage of the population can afford any new car to begin with. And since used cars won’t be available, no cars for you?

That's one possible outcome, but not a probable one because we love our cars. Another one is improving the repair cost issues across the board.
Ya never know... Time will tell!

 

[PandaBear]

This has never been the case that trading cars out is cheaper overall. Its the reason that current auto age average is 12.5 years and well over 20% of vehicles are over 20 years old, old gassers are always cheaper, especially 200K mile Corolla's. Not to mention median income is $75K, most households have no chance to afford a new car.

So yes, maybe works in California. But the EPA forcing standards are National, so that doesn't work.

So I don't see this model as practical either?

Average between multiple places are not really fair. You can't average NYC and Alabama and then say NYC or Alabama is wrong.

About EV. We have seen a lot of Nissan Leaf 8 years ago, then they all disappeared. I'm sure they are not crushed, but their value tanked to at one point about 5k when they are only 8-10 years old (vs about 30k new). Where did they go? I guess Hawaii. 60 miles is not enough for a local commute but plentiful in Hawaii (Makaha to Laie. Hahaha almost 60 miles one way if you go thru Kaneohe, or if you go thru Haleiwa. according to Reddit, and 120-160 minutes according to some AI).

I was once told by my mechanic to just sell the 250k Corolla because it is not worth keeping in the area. $500 for a distributor change, $1000 for a bypass hose leak diagnostic and replacement, $1000 for a starter diagnostic and replacement, $800 for timing belt and water pump, $1k for 2 axles, etc. The first 100k miles is a lot lower cost in maintenance than the last 100k miles, and if you factor in the small volume of EV today it won't be any cheaper, but if you assume by the time we will have larger volume of cars then parts would be easy and the same as regular gas car. Hard to say depending on the car. I see a lot of super old Prius because they are worth keeping and are doing long distance delivery, but I also see not too many old Honda Insight or Altima hybrid around, so it really will be hard to tell in EV unless the owners trust their manufacturers to provide cheap battery in the long run to keep them.

 

[Owen Lucas]

Not once has anyone suggested in any of these stories or conversations yanking stuff off the road that’s already there, especially vintage and collectible vehicles.

Not yet at least. From what I understand, old vehicles are culled in CA when a replacement catalytic converter is not available for your vintage car, assuming it came with one. I may be wrong and maybe this doesn't apply to classic cars but with recent laws being passed such as getting rid of incandescent bulbs I can see a future where such a law is implemented.

 

[Torrid]

Not yet at least. From what I understand, old vehicles are culled in CA when a replacement catalytic converter is not available for your vintage car, assuming it came with one. I may be wrong and maybe this doesn't apply to classic cars but with recent laws being passed such as getting rid of incandescent bulbs I can see a future where such a law is implemented.

It doesn't apply to classic cars. They don't do emissions on them in California. It's just too small of a blip on the radar to matter, but that can be kept in check on newer cars.

 

[SC Maintenance]

Average between multiple places are not really fair. You can't average NYC and Alabama and then say NYC or Alabama is wrong.

About EV. We have seen a lot of Nissan Leaf 8 years ago, then they all disappeared. I'm sure they are not crushed, but their value tanked to at one point about 5k when they are only 8-10 years old (vs about 30k new). Where did they go? I guess Hawaii. 60 miles is not enough for a local commute but plentiful in Hawaii (Makaha to Laie. Hahaha almost 60 miles one way if you go thru Kaneohe, or if you go thru Haleiwa. according to Reddit, and 120-160 minutes according to some AI).

I was once told by my mechanic to just sell the 250k Corolla because it is not worth keeping in the area. $500 for a distributor change, $1000 for a bypass hose leak diagnostic and replacement, $1000 for a starter diagnostic and replacement, $800 for timing belt and water pump, $1k for 2 axles, etc. The first 100k miles is a lot lower cost in maintenance than the last 100k miles, and if you factor in the small volume of EV today it won't be any cheaper, but if you assume by the time we will have larger volume of cars then parts would be easy and the same as regular gas car. Hard to say depending on the car. I see a lot of super old Prius because they are worth keeping and are doing long distance delivery, but I also see not too many old Honda Insight or Altima hybrid around, so it really will be hard to tell in EV unless the owners trust their manufacturers to provide cheap battery in the long run to keep them.

I agree its very regional.

Surely the reason that uptake in California being 25%, and South Carolina less than 1%, isn't purely ideals. Its monetary. In California gas is expensive, and the state from time to time has also offered additional incentives. So this is definitely true.

The leaf example is a good one. They truly are mostly gone, not in Hawaii. The battery design was terrible - lousy cells and lack of cooling. They replaced many batteries in warranty. The battery had pretty limited range to begin with, like 100 miles +/- depending on the year. Once that starts to degrade they do in fact get crushed. I still see them very occasionally.

It still does not change the fact that most households can not afford a new car every decade, nor the fact that the average car on the road today is significantly older than the expected lifetime of a new BEV. The Prius is actually an example of this. They seemingly last forever. The small and simple battery can be replaced easily and cost affectively. So people continue to drive them, simply because its possible. Doesn't seem likely with a BEV replacement cells being cost prohibitive.

 

[y_p_w]

It doesn't apply to classic cars. They don't do emissions on them in California. It's just too small of a blip on the radar to matter, but that can be kept in check on newer cars.

The rule in California is 1975 or earlier model years don't require it. Other than that, yes it's required. Modern cars with OBD-II are just plugged in for a check of the onboard diagnostics, but they still have the tailpipe tests (on a dyno) for non-exempt cars that can't do it. Newer cars don't even require one for 8 years, but I remember I got one anyways because it was cheaper than paying the fee to get out of it.

Smog Inspections - California DMV

Smog inspections are required when you register or renew registration for a vehicle in California, but there are some exceptions.

www.dmv.ca.gov

Your vehicle does not need a smog inspection if your:​

• Gasoline-powered vehicle is a 1975 year model or older (This includes motorcycles and trailers.)

 

[PandaBear]

I agree its very regional.

Surely the reason that uptake in California being 25%, and South Carolina less than 1%, isn't purely ideals. Its monetary. In California gas is expensive, and the state from time to time has also offered additional incentives. So this is definitely true.

The leaf example is a good one. They truly are mostly gone, not in Hawaii. The battery design was terrible - lousy cells and lack of cooling. They replaced many batteries in warranty. The battery had pretty limited range to begin with, like 100 miles +/- depending on the year. Once that starts to degrade they do in fact get crushed. I still see them very occasionally.

It still does not change the fact that most households can not afford a new car every decade, nor the fact that the average car on the road today is significantly older than the expected lifetime of a new BEV. The Prius is actually an example of this. They seemingly last forever. The small and simple battery can be replaced easily and cost affectively. So people continue to drive them, simply because its possible. Doesn't seem likely with a BEV replacement cells being cost prohibitive.

Yes indeed. The implementation totally matters more than the theory of what should last how long.

I do think EV can be made to last forever and be affordable, but I don't think TODAY'S EV WILL LAST FOREVER AND AFFORDABLE. To me the reason being 1) Recent EV are not build for low cost commute, but rather as high performance fun car that replaces the like of Mercedes / BMW, or disposable vehicles just to meet regulation (Leaf, eGolf, i3, etc). 2) The technology is still changing too fast to be maturing, so the early adopters are going to pay for the durability problems (Tesla's cost of ownership in repair and battery replacement).

I do think once the big boys are doing EV they will be worth keeping for 200k, like what we have done with Prius, and eventually they will be everywhere, like how Camry will go all hybrid very soon. Not yet, but eventually we will get there. It wouldn't be from a Tesla Model 3 or Model S, but rather something that competes with a Corolla hybrid or Camry hybrid.

 

[CKN]

I agree its very regional.

Surely the reason that uptake in California being 25%, and South Carolina less than 1%, isn't purely ideals. Its monetary. In California gas is expensive, and the state from time to time has also offered additional incentives. So this is definitely true.

The leaf example is a good one. They truly are mostly gone, not in Hawaii. The battery design was terrible - lousy cells and lack of cooling. They replaced many batteries in warranty. The battery had pretty limited range to begin with, like 100 miles +/- depending on the year. Once that starts to degrade they do in fact get crushed. I still see them very occasionally.

It still does not change the fact that most households can not afford a new car every decade, nor the fact that the average car on the road today is significantly older than the expected lifetime of a new BEV. The Prius is actually an example of this. They seemingly last forever. The small and simple battery can be replaced easily and cost affectively. So people continue to drive them, simply because its possible. Doesn't seem likely with a BEV replacement cells being cost prohibitive.

That's true, another perspective is as someone who lived in California 50 plus years-commutes to work that are 30 to 50 miles are not uncommon. If you can charge at work that's a plus. But any decent EV will fall in to your needs for getting to work. In the greater Salt Lake Area-people gripe if they drive 10 miles to their job-stating "it's too long of a drive"!

 

[alarmguy]

Deleted

 

[Neniod]

NOOOoooooo..... :((
i need my diesel cars back

 

[oil pan 4]

Here is something about the participation of various states. Again, California dominates but the national average is less than half of California’s rate. Over 30 states have a rate of less than 8%.

View attachment 210285

Lol 25% of new vehicle sales are electric and they still have the top 7 cities for air pollution.