Two Thirds Of New Cars Will Be Electric/Hybrids by 2032

[JeffKeryk]

In general, despite more accessible information, people aren’t good at research anymore. I have several colleagues that felt burned by the EV hype of 2021-23 but in reality they only have themselves to blame.

One bought a Ford Mustang Mach-e, EPA range of 210 miles. Her commute is 70 miles in each direction. During the temperate autumn weather, she was on cloud-9 but then came winter; she wasn’t aware that she would get hit with a 40-50% range penalty unless she preconditioned the battery in freezing conditions. She was having to use 90-95% SoC per winter commute day, and was experiencing accelerated battery degradation because of this. She recognized her beginner EV owner mistake of trusting the published ranges and traded in her Mach-e for a Tesla Model Y long range (310ish mile published range IIRC) and is much much happier. She is able to use roughly 60-80% SoC per winter commute. In addition, she’s got two Tesla superchargers along her route home if she gets herself into a bind.

Every hybrid and PHEV owner I know is happy with their vehicle.

Good point. Uninformed decisions are risky. Generalization is as well; one brand of EV is not gonna be equal to another brand. This is true of most products.

In the case of EVs, we have heard, "Wait till the big boys get in" since Tesla sales started to take significant ICE market share. Well, the Mach-E is a good example of this fallacy. Even the beautiful 1st gen Taycan with its range and other problems. EV drivetrains are not all the same.

 

[OVERKILL]

Good point. Uninformed decisions are risky. Generalization is as well; one brand of EV is not gonna be equal to another brand. This is true of most products.

In the case of EVs, we have heard, "Wait till the big boys get in" since Tesla sales started to take significant ICE market share. Well, the Mach-E is a good example of this fallacy. Even the beautiful 1st gen Taycan with its range and other problems. EV drivetrains are not all the same.

Well, I mean, you could do the reverse version of this where Ford and GM have functional trucks and the Tesla mafia were like "wAiT UnTiL tEh CyBeRzTrUcK l33t y33t's teh ScEnEz0rZ!!!!!" and then it ends up being not only the visual abortion that was generally expected, but also crippled with poor range, a baby bed, huge fit and finish issues (like the door strikers falling off)...etc.

 

[PandaBear]

By 2032 BEVs will most likely be more expensive to own than any other vehicle because:

- New taxes (electric surcharges, road taxes, newly made up random taxes state will make up).

- Increased insurance rates due to increased total losses as a result of:

-- Unrepairable batteries that cost $20k -$30k+. Combined with repair costs, it’s a total.
-- Aluminum repairs requiring specialty high demand body shops that charge 2x-3x more than regular steel repairs.
-- Multiple ADAS and BEV systems to be reset requiring tows to dealer or expensive mobile tech services.
-- Massive depreciation with BEVs makes them easier to total.

- EV incentives will probably dry up due to greater adoption.

BEVs are the new BMW in the driveway and will continue to be a sign of wealth for the foreseeable future IMHO.

Even when cheaper EVs come out, how will the low income community charge all their cars in an apartment complex? How will they fix them like a basic ICE-mobile?

Hopefully the future is brighter but there are many challenges which will all be financial.

Here’s my solution BTW:

Teslas are Crap (long, sorry)

https://www.yahoo.com/news/mexican-artist-crushes-tesla-under-221059483.html That's a small price to pay for artistic expression. Perhaps he didn't like Tesla's "blue" colour. Apparently artists can be like that.

bobistheoilguy.com

I don't agree completely, for the following reasons:

1) You don't need aluminum to make an EV, you can also make an aluminum gas car. When you start making Corolla EV you can bet it would not be aluminum or carbon fiber, etc.

2) With massive depreciation due to aging battery, the cost to total an EV would be lower, plus you have a possibility to swap vehicles with aging battery instead of repairing them. I think the average age of EV would be lower due to battery aging, and therefore would work out better for repair with junkyard swap and insurance would demand parts from junkyard, battery from junkyard for warranty, etc.

3) The biggest cost of EV would be battery replacement, and until manufacturers have proven they would replace at affordable price people would likely not want them for long. Toyota did a good job with Prius on that. Nissan not so much. I think this is one of the reason Toyota currently doesn't want to go full in on EV yet, until they feel comfortable supporting old batteries like they do with Prius. Gas price have to be way higher to justify this battery depreciation, hard to predict which one will win in the long run.

4) People will buy and trade cars more often for sure, due to commute distance. The pandemic work from home change would likely discourage EV and people would likely stay with gas car longer than before, or pick plug in hybrid instead.

5) Tesla is not going to be the standard for the industry, most people like them as a fun car but not enough people have lived with a 20 year old Tesla long enough to want to trust it. Maybe one day Tesla would be Toyota but that'll be when Elon pass the position to another person more like Tim Cook, and that's not going to happen any time soon.

6) EV with worn out battery would eventually be homeless vehicles parking overnight at public chargers. What's going to be useful about an EV with 20 mile range? Park it somewhere and plug it in, turn on the power for AC, internet, coffee maker, microwave, and you can live a comfortable night for $30. That's what happening to most Toyota station wagons, and that'll happen to most worn out luxury EV SUVs.

 

[Torrid]

Well, I mean, you could do the reverse version of this where Ford and GM have functional trucks and the Tesla mafia were like "wAiT UnTiL tEh CyBeRzTrUcK l33t y33t's teh ScEnEz0rZ!!!!!" and then it ends up being not only the visual abortion that was generally expected, but also crippled with poor range, a baby bed, huge fit and finish issues (like the door strikers falling off)...etc.

I saw the CyberTruck yesterday at the Milwaukee store since it's in for the auto show next week. It's neat and all but the whole I'm I was looking at it I couldn't help but think I'd just rather have the extended range Lightning for the price it's going for. I know I'm siding with familiarity as a previous F150 driver, but that's what it's going to take to get people who love their trucks to buy an EV truck. The angles in person to me really struck me as if you took a Delorean, combined it with a Countach, and then grafted it over a truck. If I left there with a vehicle tomorrow already having a Model 3 and replacing the GTI I think it would be a Model Y Performance. It really doesn't feel like a crossover to me after spending some time with it.

I will say for the Lightning the biggest problem that it has is all the EVs that exist below its price point. No one is towing with this thing consistently, so the vehicle doesn't need to be as big as it is. It would work for me as I never tow, but then did I need that much vehicle in the first place? It'll just mean I'll be stopped longer charging to go the same distance in the Tesla and that's really hard to justify as someone who will use public charging occasionally if I daily it.

 

[John105]

The interesting thing in all of this is, OK. This will happen by 2032. Good to know that. Maybe our hobbies and interests will need to change. What I think is often misunderstood or targeted, is to prefer things the old way. Some like manual transmissions. Some like hydraulic power steering. No amount of web links, articles, govt regulation will change these preferences. Yes, things go away. That’s ok. That’s life. It’s like a cop who arrested a car thief and demanded an apology for leading them on a high speed chase. The perp said I apologize to the pedestrians. Ok, I apologize to you but you’re sorta just doing your job.

People who love EVs and hybrids, maybe we’ll apologize to you at some point as we get closer to 2032 or 2035

 

[Owen Lucas]

I don't agree completely, for the following reasons:

1) You don't need aluminum to make an EV, you can also make an aluminum gas car. When you start making Corolla EV you can bet it would not be aluminum or carbon fiber, etc.

I should have been more clear, I' referring to ALU structured vehicles. Replacing an ALU hood, trunk, fenders is easy. Repairing them, even on an ICE vehicle, is charged as ALU labor which can be 2x - 3x more than body labor rates, so instead of $55/hr (which is what ins cos pay usually) now you are at $110 - $165/hr.

ALU repairs require a body shop that has a dedicated bay or wing of the shop with curtains and precautions against cross contamination of steel that can ruin ALU repairs. ALU repair bays have their own tools and frame machines in many of the professional shops I've been to. This requires certification from the manufacturer as your techs have to be trained and pass exams to even be able to order the approved tools.

Try replacing a uniside / rocker panel on a Model X which needs a battery, frame setup, pull, ADAS resets etc. etc. Unless it is 1-2 yrs old, it's total loss time.

BEVs simply total out easier due to more required repairs using expensive OEM parts. Look at all of the Teslas on IAAs website that don't have significant damage but are up for auction by the insurance company.

This is why the insurance rates are 39% higher on average and repairs are 27% higher for BEVs. Long term ownership is going to be more expensive as well despite used BEVs being cheaper to buy.

https://www.valuepenguin.com/cost-to-own-maintain-electric-vehicles

2) With massive depreciation due to aging battery, the cost to total an EV would be lower, plus you have a possibility to swap vehicles with aging battery instead of repairing them. I think the average age of EV would be lower due to battery aging, and therefore would work out better for repair with junkyard swap and insurance would demand parts from junkyard, battery from junkyard for warranty, etc.

The reason the BEVs are depreciating more than ICE is they become e-waste if there is a major repair after the warranty. These repairs need to be completed at the dealer using OEM parts, which are ridiculously expensive.

We've had posts here how a 2 year old Ioniq required a $30k battery and a hybrid Infiniti battery cost $13k.

As an insurance adjuster, no insurance company that I know is going to take the risk or using a recycled battery. Was the vehicle submerged? Is there a ding on it when it arrives and now we have to send it back? Was the donor vehicle totaled because of a severe accident and the battery just looks fine? We're not talking about pulling a robust engine out of a Camry that had some rear end damage.

Some shops, especially dealer certified won't do the work. I wouldn't be surprised if a dealer also declined a recycled battery with unknown history being used, it's too much of a risk.

Most shops also can't do the work because of the technology and training needed for diagnostic and repair. Bring a Tesla or another BEV, even a hybrid to Moe's repair shop and he won't have a clue what to do. It's go to the dealer and pay what they say.

3) The biggest cost of EV would be battery replacement, and until manufacturers have proven they would replace at affordable price people would likely not want them for long. Toyota did a good job with Prius on that. Nissan not so much. I think this is one of the reason Toyota currently doesn't want to go full in on EV yet, until they feel comfortable supporting old batteries like they do with Prius. Gas price have to be way higher to justify this battery depreciation, hard to predict which one will win in the long run.

As I mentioned in my original post, rebuildable battery design is probably the best solution to keeping EVs powered long term. Makes me wonder though, how much greed-flation is there in battery costs or are manufacturers selling them with barely a markup?

6) EV with worn out battery would eventually be homeless vehicles parking overnight at public chargers. What's going to be useful about an EV with 20 mile range? Park it somewhere and plug it in, turn on the power for AC, internet, coffee maker, microwave, and you can live a comfortable night for $30. That's what happening to most Toyota station wagons, and that'll happen to most worn out luxury EV SUVs.

Now there's an idea! Sounds comfy with the right scenery lol.


So overall, pushing everyone towards BEVs isn't easy as, installing a $500 wall charger.

Increased insurance
Increased deprecation
Increased repair costs

Will this reality change in 8 years? Probably not.

 

[demarpaint]

In the case of EVs, we have heard, "Wait till the big boys get in" since Tesla sales started to take significant ICE market share.

You keep bringing this up. It's not only the big boys Elon has to worry about, it's the little boys too, along with BYD. Carpenter ants and termites can take down a house, slowly. I consider them the EVs other than Tesla, and the Hybrids. I'm not saying Tesla is going belly up, but they are losing sales to "The big boy, little boy combo," as a team along with the Hybrids. The recent stock action seems to be telling that story too at the moment, at least that's what it is telling me, and many others. The short positions and buyers of Puts have made out nicely recently. Yea Tesla has the #1 selling car, or whatever, but they're losing ground at the moment, and their competition is growing.

 

[Torrid]

You keep bringing this up. It's not only the big boys Elon has to worry about, it's the little boys too, along with BYD. Carpenter ants and termites can take down a house, slowly. I consider them the EVs other than Tesla, and the Hybrids. I'm not saying Tesla is going belly up, but they are losing sales to "The big boy, little boy combo," as a team along with the Hybrids. The recent stock action seems to be telling that story too at the moment, at least that's what it is telling me, and many others. The short positions and buyers of Puts have made out nicely recently. Yea Tesla has the #1 selling car, or whatever, but they're losing ground at the moment, and their competition is growing.

It's making for an interesting dynamic to say the least. It's a lot easier to break into the EV market than the ICE market, likely due to emissions. Really though losing market share if everything grows exponentially is really not a loss. Now if it actually lowers their sales that's another thing. Time will tell. Tesla can only lose market share though unless the other options don't do well.

I like our Tesla and all, but as the market continues to expand with choices I'm interested in branching out to other options. I would prefer to support US companies as I type this owning a German car of course. It seems the Fords still have real buttons if I can bring myself to support Ford again. There just aren't good small American cars these days with the versatility of a hatchback and there are none that are EV with range that aren't crossovers, SUVs, or trucks.

My wife very much prefers Tesla and didn't like the Highland Model 3's lack of shifter. She didn't mind the turn signal buttons though. She's a maybe on that car, but with already owning a 2023 she's got plenty of time to think about it. I think she wants me to get the F150 Lightning. I'm not all in yet on another Ford or a truck for that matter.

All of that is just to say as a Tesla owner we're more likely to not have another Tesla as a second car because there are real options out there these days and if we bought a Model Y it's just a tall Model 3 with a hatch. I really don't want to be those people with two of nearly the same car in the driveway.

 

[JeffKeryk]

You keep bringing this up. It's not only the big boys Elon has to worry about, it's the little boys too, along with BYD. Carpenter ants and termites can take down a house, slowly. I consider them the EVs other than Tesla, and the Hybrids. I'm not saying Tesla is going belly up, but they are losing sales to "The big boy, little boy combo," as a team along with the Hybrids. The recent stock action seems to be telling that story too at the moment, at least that's what it is telling me, and many others. The short positions and buyers of Puts have made out nicely recently. Yea Tesla has the #1 selling car, or whatever, but they're losing ground at the moment, and their competition is growing.

My point is, many people seemed to think making an EV was easy and the big boys would squash Tesla.

 

[alarmguy]

V-8s and V-6s will be the new status symbol in 2035, can’t afford one? Get an electric or a hybrid.

 

[Torrid]

V-8s and V-6s will be the new status symbol in 2035, can’t afford one? Get an electric or a hybrid.

And lose the stoplight race to granny in an EV.

 

[PandaBear]

I should have been more clear, I' referring to ALU structured vehicles. Replacing an ALU hood, trunk, fenders is easy. Repairing them, even on an ICE vehicle, is charged as ALU labor which can be 2x - 3x more than body labor rates, so instead of $55/hr (which is what ins cos pay usually) now you are at $110 - $165/hr.

ALU repairs require a body shop that has a dedicated bay or wing of the shop with curtains and precautions against cross contamination of steel that can ruin ALU repairs. ALU repair bays have their own tools and frame machines in many of the professional shops I've been to. This requires certification from the manufacturer as your techs have to be trained and pass exams to even be able to order the approved tools.

Try replacing a uniside / rocker panel on a Model X which needs a battery, frame setup, pull, ADAS resets etc. etc. Unless it is 1-2 yrs old, it's total loss time.

BEVs simply total out easier due to more required repairs using expensive OEM parts. Look at all of the Teslas on IAAs website that don't have significant damage but are up for auction by the insurance company.

This is why the insurance rates are 39% higher on average and repairs are 27% higher for BEVs. Long term ownership is going to be more expensive as well despite used BEVs being cheaper to buy.

https://www.valuepenguin.com/cost-to-own-maintain-electric-vehicles

The reason the BEVs are depreciating more than ICE is they become e-waste if there is a major repair after the warranty. These repairs need to be completed at the dealer using OEM parts, which are ridiculously expensive.

We've had posts here how a 2 year old Ioniq required a $30k battery and a hybrid Infiniti battery cost $13k.

As an insurance adjuster, no insurance company that I know is going to take the risk or using a recycled battery. Was the vehicle submerged? Is there a ding on it when it arrives and now we have to send it back? Was the donor vehicle totaled because of a severe accident and the battery just looks fine? We're not talking about pulling a robust engine out of a Camry that had some rear end damage.

Some shops, especially dealer certified won't do the work. I wouldn't be surprised if a dealer also declined a recycled battery with unknown history being used, it's too much of a risk.

Most shops also can't do the work because of the technology and training needed for diagnostic and repair. Bring a Tesla or another BEV, even a hybrid to Moe's repair shop and he won't have a clue what to do. It's go to the dealer and pay what they say.


As I mentioned in my original post, rebuildable battery design is probably the best solution to keeping EVs powered long term. Makes me wonder though, how much greed-flation is there in battery costs or are manufacturers selling them with barely a markup?


Now there's an idea! Sounds comfy with the right scenery lol.


So overall, pushing everyone towards BEVs isn't easy as, installing a $500 wall charger.

Increased insurance
Increased deprecation
Increased repair costs

Will this reality change in 8 years? Probably not.

Yes, I agree that aluminum body vehicles are pain in the butt and expensive. As I said this does not mean all EV or even most EV have to be aluminum body. When and if they hit Corolla price they have to use steel like most gas cars. There is no way to make a 25k EV with mostly aluminum. Tesla is an odd ball but I don't think most people would assume a typical Corolla competitor from Tesla would be ALU and last as long as a Corolla for the same cost of ownership.

There are many types of total. I have friends who almost got his Tesla totaled because he hit the side or corner of his car and the labor is too expensive for his car's current price. I have friends with Mercedes CLS scrapped because of a window malfunction and it is not worth repairing. Tesla gets totaled when it gets in fender bender all the time, when nothing hits the battery. These vehicles can still be driven but since body repair (or ECU repair due to bad flash memory logging design), have perfectly functional but aged battery. Worn out battery in hot climate drivers may be able to get one of these still good battery to swap. Obviously if you get into an accident and your battery is damaged it is not "repairable" by insurance.

I don't see battery technology maturing any time soon. It would be like saying buying a computer and the sales tell you you can upgrade it 3 years later. By the time you can upgrade everything else is obsoleted and even if you can "upgrade" it is not worth it. In reality I think most worn out EV and accident EV would be sent oversea and someone in Mongolia or Africa would swap parts till something works. You probably can look at them like those European cars today: not worth fixing despite fixable with the right parts and people, but not worth it. They will be sent to Africa to be fixed and sold there instead.

Increase insurance, depreciation, yes. Repair cost: depends. In theory a Prius should not be more reliable than a Nissan Leaf or a Hyundai Elantra, but it IS. There are no CVT or intake valve problem, turbo problem, but you have a predictable battery depreciation if designed right. In theory, your electricity should be cheaper than gas (at least in most part of the world) + battery depreciation cost. Reality however doesn't always match theory. Prius last longer than Nissan Leaf and Hyundai Elantra. Electricity in Taiwan and Japan is in shorter supply than gasoline (they need to import LNG to make electricity instead of pipe natural gas from a field like in the US) If your electricity is more expensive than gas and battery depreciation cost then it obviously is not a good deal.

Also, if you live in a small nation or on a small island, you don't NEED a 300 miles battery or a car that last 200k miles. There are "fast golf cart" EV in China that costed about 5k USD, there are kei car in Japan that probably cost about 10k USD in today's dollar. You really need to look at your location to determine what works and what doesn't.

 

[y_p_w]

Yes, I agree that aluminum body vehicles are pain in the butt and expensive. As I said this does not mean all EV or even most EV have to be aluminum body. When and if they hit Corolla price they have to use steel like most gas cars. There is no way to make a 25k EV with mostly aluminum. Tesla is an odd ball but I don't think most people would assume a typical Corolla competitor from Tesla would be ALU and last as long as a Corolla for the same cost of ownership.

There are many types of total. I have friends who almost got his Tesla totaled because he hit the side or corner of his car and the labor is too expensive for his car's current price. I have friends with Mercedes CLS scrapped because of a window malfunction and it is not worth repairing. Tesla gets totaled when it gets in fender bender all the time, when nothing hits the battery. These vehicles can still be driven but since body repair (or ECU repair due to bad flash memory logging design), have perfectly functional but aged battery. Worn out battery in hot climate drivers may be able to get one of these still good battery to swap. Obviously if you get into an accident and your battery is damaged it is not "repairable" by insurance.

I don't see battery technology maturing any time soon. It would be like saying buying a computer and the sales tell you you can upgrade it 3 years later. By the time you can upgrade everything else is obsoleted and even if you can "upgrade" it is not worth it. In reality I think most worn out EV and accident EV would be sent oversea and someone in Mongolia or Africa would swap parts till something works. You probably can look at them like those European cars today: not worth fixing despite fixable with the right parts and people, but not worth it. They will be sent to Africa to be fixed and sold there instead.

Increase insurance, depreciation, yes. Repair cost: depends. In theory a Prius should not be more reliable than a Nissan Leaf or a Hyundai Elantra, but it IS. There are no CVT or intake valve problem, turbo problem, but you have a predictable battery depreciation if designed right. In theory, your electricity should be cheaper than gas (at least in most part of the world) + battery depreciation cost. Reality however doesn't always match theory. Prius last longer than Nissan Leaf and Hyundai Elantra. Electricity in Taiwan and Japan is in shorter supply than gasoline (they need to import LNG to make electricity instead of pipe natural gas from a field like in the US) If your electricity is more expensive than gas and battery depreciation cost then it obviously is not a good deal.

Also, if you live in a small nation or on a small island, you don't NEED a 300 miles battery or a car that last 200k miles. There are "fast golf cart" EV in China that costed about 5k USD, there are kei car in Japan that probably cost about 10k USD in today's dollar. You really need to look at your location to determine what works and what doesn't.

I remember the EV police car discussion. I found out that Fort Bragg, California got several Ford F-150 Lightnings for their police. The city is a bit over 3 square miles. If they’re worried about running out of charge in a day, something is really wrong.

 

[Torrid]

I remember the EV police car discussion. I found out that Fort Bragg, California got several Ford F-150 Lightnings for their police. The city is a bit over 3 square miles. If they’re worried about running out of charge in a day, something is really wrong.

My company just received two Lightning standard batteries. I've seen them plugged in at the office where they charge them but I've never seen them out and about yet. I really want to see how they hold up long term to less educated abuse. I know I can make one work for me if I need to, but I'm sure they're sitting at full charge and rarely used.

 

[demarpaint]

V-8s and V-6s will be the new status symbol in 2035, can’t afford one? Get an electric or a hybrid.

Maybe, maybe not, time will tell. Hopefully I'm still around, and if so there will be ICE in the driveway and the garage, and it won't be the ice many of us see in the winter.

 

[SC Maintenance]

For a thought experiment, lets assume that all the technical hurdles are overcome in 8 years - ie 2032, and little green men swing by and build us a new grid overnight with a endless flux capacitor to power it.

We still won't get anywhere close. Even in highly agreeable California only 25% of new cars are EV's. In my state, new EV sales are less than 1% sold, and that is the case in most states outside of a few.

So even if the EPA "cracks down", as soon as it gets close to reality and people wake up and figure out they can't buy what they want, there will be a new sheriff in town on January of the next odd numbered year.

May not even take that long, because as soon as half the UAW was laid off, and half the workers at the tier suppliers and steel mills and aluminum mills, etc are also laid off because no one was buying cars there would be a change in policy pretty quick.

May not even take that long. As soon as GM or Ford miss a bond payment Jamie Diamond will make a phone call.

People will simply keep their old cars longer. That will crash the car business. So it won't be allowed to happen.

Better upgrade the BITOG servers, were going to have lots of new members trying to figure out how to keep there old car running longer.

 

[Owen Lucas]

In reality I think most worn out EV and accident EV would be sent oversea and someone in Mongolia or Africa would swap parts till something works. You probably can look at them like those European cars today: not worth fixing despite fixable with the right parts and people, but not worth it. They will be sent to Africa to be fixed and sold there instead.

Indeed a lot of Teslas and EVs are bought by auto rebuilders abroad. There is a huge market in Ukraine and Scandinavian countries.

May not even take that long. As soon as GM or Ford miss a bond payment Jamie Diamond will make a phone call.

This, in a battle between green ideologies and Wall Street, I believe the banks will win, they embraced environmentalism in DEI / ESG which is already getting pushback from the market. Add some financial or societal black swans and who knows what can happen.

 

[PandaBear]

For a thought experiment, lets assume that all the technical hurdles are overcome in 8 years - ie 2032, and little green men swing by and build us a new grid overnight with a endless flux capacitor to power it.

We still won't get anywhere close. Even in highly agreeable California only 25% of new cars are EV's. In my state, new EV sales are less than 1% sold, and that is the case in most states outside of a few.

So even if the EPA "cracks down", as soon as it gets close to reality and people wake up and figure out they can't buy what they want, there will be a new sheriff in town on January of the next odd numbered year.

May not even take that long, because as soon as half the UAW was laid off, and half the workers at the tier suppliers and steel mills and aluminum mills, etc are also laid off because no one was buying cars there would be a change in policy pretty quick.

May not even take that long. As soon as GM or Ford miss a bond payment Jamie Diamond will make a phone call.

People will simply keep their old cars longer. That will crash the car business. So it won't be allowed to happen.

Better upgrade the BITOG servers, were going to have lots of new members trying to figure out how to keep there old car running longer.

EV1 has proven that politics will eventually have to match reality.

What EV would likely do is actually encourage people to update their cars more often instead of holding onto their gas cars forever. You can't repair batteries, so you have to sell them oversea or to someone local who doesn't commute.

It is happening already here, some better quality body shops no longer work on any vehicle older than 2006. Tesla is more expensive labor wise so the practical age would probably be before the battery is worn out. If it is worn out sell it oversea and let someone else part it out and swap parts between a hard to fix body and an impossible to rebuild battery.

 

[SC Maintenance]

EV1 has proven that politics will eventually have to match reality.

What EV would likely do is actually encourage people to update their cars more often instead of holding onto their gas cars forever. You can't repair batteries, so you have to sell them oversea or to someone local who doesn't commute.

It is happening already here, some better quality body shops no longer work on any vehicle older than 2006. Tesla is more expensive labor wise so the practical age would probably be before the battery is worn out. If it is worn out sell it oversea and let someone else part it out and swap parts between a hard to fix body and an impossible to rebuild battery.

So then by extension the goal must be for people to not have cars, because only a small percentage of the population can afford any new car to begin with. And since used cars won’t be available, no cars for you?

 

[PandaBear]

So then by extension the goal must be for people to not have cars, because only a small percentage of the population can afford any new car to begin with. And since used cars won’t be available, no cars for you?

Not exactly. It makes buying new car and selling them sooner more practical, instead of holding it till it rust out. The "buy new and sell when it is old instead of repairing" is the new norm in high cost area these days. No reason to rebuild something when you are better off selling it to 3rd world when customer is paying $150-200/hr in the shop. Buying EV new and keeping it for 10 years may be cheaper in maintenance perspective vs keeping a 20 year old 200k mile Corolla.

Fundamentally, EV equation has to work assuming that 1) electricity + battery depreciation is cheaper than gas if they pay the same tax, and 2) EV have lower cost of maintenance because you don't need oil change, belt change, spark plug change, etc.

1) would really be location and local tax specific. What works in Texas may not work in China, or the other way around.