Good question. Likely it would be viscosity due to film thickness during High Temperature / High Sheer driving.
The timing chain test would be using brand new oil. After a 20 weight or thinner oil has been in the engine for 5,000+ miles,
it will likely sheer down to a much lower HTHS and likely would fail that same timing chain test.
Ford recommends 5W-30 for most of its engines with start/stop technology (which is very hard on the oil).
If 20 weight oil protected an engine equal to better than 30 weight, Ford never would have switched back to 30 weight oil.
My main reason to use 30 weight oil is for the inevitable extreme conditions that may happen during an oil change interval, like going on a vacation with the family driving a few thousand miles cross country, which might include a minivan carrying 8 heavy people + heavy luggage with Air Conditioning on and going up mountain hills during parts of the trip. In this high temperature / high sheer situation, 20 weight or thinner oils would really sheer and get so thin as to not provide enough film strength and could allow for metal on metal contact inside the engine.
Toyota has surprisingly moved in the opposite direction, specing nearly all of their new cars for 0W-16.
Toyota also recommends 10,000 mile oil changes. This long drain interval should allow the 0W-16 to sheer down to a 0W-8 oil.
So far, no issues with that from what I can tell by google searches.
But my suspicion is that after 100k miles, these cars will show higher than normal engine wear / oil consumption.
It will be interesting to follow this over the long term to see if engines using 0W-16 can make it to 200,000 miles.
My expectation is no.