It looks like electric vehicles are going to be shoved down our throats
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For gas turbine plants, you're at about 35% converting the btu's in gas into electricity. For combined cycle in a cogeneration plant, you go up to 50-60%. Then you have line losses with transmitting that power.
That's why locally it's much cheaper burning gas for heating than to use electricity. Electricity is 100% but burning it and then transmitting it leads to lower total efficiency. Gas heating can be anywhere from 80-98% efficient.
They're not going to be the only company out there and you can always buy a used ICE car. Some states and countries are saying they're going to ban the sale of ICE vehicles in the future. They of course might change their mind later when they run into problems. Japan was going to get rid of all nuclear power, but they need the electricity and they've restarted several of them.
What about the latest generation of combined cycle natural gas plant? I think the calculations work in favor of EV's for it as well. If all this extra demand comes online, that's likely going to be the primary source of additional generation capacity.
My private equity clients have billions of cash ready to go building new plants if warranted. The issue now is power prices are too low and there is not enough new demand to warrant it.
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BEV's will always come out ahead of an ICE in terms of GHG emission. I suspect fueling costs are going to reach parity once states/fed gov't re-adjust their tax scheme to make up for the loss in revenue in fuel taxes. EV owners are currently free riders in that regard.
Now get off my lawn !!!
https://www.iea.org/data-and-statis...of-an-average-mid-size-car-by-powertrain-2018
Now get off my lawn !!!
https://www.iea.org/data-and-statis...of-an-average-mid-size-car-by-powertrain-2018
Ignoring for a moment that CO2 is not a pollutant and "climate change" is part of nature that we cannot control (we're still emerging from the Little Ice Age), that depends entirely on how one generates the electricity. However I don't see CO2 as any kind of important factor and certainly do not take "GHG emission" into consideration in anything I do or any of my purchasing decisions.
4WD
$50 site donor 2025
This is why I posted get ready to see more and more power generation facilities … Our 48 machine wind farm cannot suffer extensive line loss like our nuclear plant can …
That settles it. I’m quitting my job today. I ain’t working for a company with no EV chargers. This is now on the top of my list when finding work, healthcare, 401k, and salary be ****ed....
That assumes there are no new or used ICE cars available. And/or that ICE cars are outlawed.
I am not sure how that could happen.
Additionally, that would cripple our economy.
Am I missing something?
4WD
$50 site donor 2025
I’m filing a grievance for gas pumps, LoL …
I've missed out on the various well to wheels analysis; this is my quick take.
Seems like a decent EV consumption is about 300Whr/mile. 10% charging loss and 10% power line loss means about 360Whr/mile back at the power plant. If a power plant was running gasoline (which it wouldn't be) it would get about 50% efficiency, and thus need about 720Whr per mile of energy input. 720Whr is 2,457 BTU's and a gallon of gas is 116,090 BTU's. I come up with about 0.0211 gallons of gas per mile going in, which, flipped around, is 47mpg.
So if a power plant was solely gasoline powered, then Prius would win (50mpg vs 47mpg). Add any amount of renewables into the grid, and things change, for the better.
Now a gallon of gasoline is 0.071 grams CO2 per BTU, coal is 0.095 and natural gas is 0.053. So a natural gas power plant, with no renewables in the mix, may have less CO2 per mile than a Prius. Add in some renewables and then it really comes down, on a CO2 basis.
Am I close?
Seems like a decent EV consumption is about 300Whr/mile. 10% charging loss and 10% power line loss means about 360Whr/mile back at the power plant. If a power plant was running gasoline (which it wouldn't be) it would get about 50% efficiency, and thus need about 720Whr per mile of energy input. 720Whr is 2,457 BTU's and a gallon of gas is 116,090 BTU's. I come up with about 0.0211 gallons of gas per mile going in, which, flipped around, is 47mpg.
So if a power plant was solely gasoline powered, then Prius would win (50mpg vs 47mpg). Add any amount of renewables into the grid, and things change, for the better.
Now a gallon of gasoline is 0.071 grams CO2 per BTU, coal is 0.095 and natural gas is 0.053. So a natural gas power plant, with no renewables in the mix, may have less CO2 per mile than a Prius. Add in some renewables and then it really comes down, on a CO2 basis.
Am I close?
Widespread use of gasoline-electric hybrids will be a far better option than a pure EV.
I disagree. His comparison is to a Prius which is pretty much the most efficient hybrid / ICE car available but slow and boring to drive. If you compare a Tesla Model 3 to a more desired contender like a Honda Accord or Toyota Camry, the EV advantage grows.
EV's because "save the environment", but then there is this: https://www.wired.co.uk/article/lithium-batteries-environment-impact
edyvw
$50 site donor 2025
Sure, if GM decides to rop completely ICE, but I highly doubt by 2035 you won't be able to buy ICE at all. So far government did not say that by 2035 everyone has to move to EV.
I hear a lot of complaints about transmission losses in the electrical grid, but isn’t the our system of gasoline tanker trucks essentially the same?
Such a stupid system with thousands, if not tens of thousands, of 18-wheelers running 24/7/365 transporting gasoline from the refineries to gas stations and back. Some busy gas stations are getting a full tanker truck every day to refill.
Around 390 million gallons per day (in the US alone) needs to be loaded on semi trucks, driven many miles to a gas station, then drained. And just keep repeating it forever.
https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/gasoline/use-of-gasoline.php
Such a stupid system with thousands, if not tens of thousands, of 18-wheelers running 24/7/365 transporting gasoline from the refineries to gas stations and back. Some busy gas stations are getting a full tanker truck every day to refill.
Around 390 million gallons per day (in the US alone) needs to be loaded on semi trucks, driven many miles to a gas station, then drained. And just keep repeating it forever.
https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/gasoline/use-of-gasoline.php
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Many Costco's get multiple DELIVERIES A DAY.
It's the same but they're both different. You use higher voltages to lower line losses. For instance when I worked at a gas power plant, there was 360kv coming out of the plant. At some point it drops down to 110kv and then there's a few more steps til it's probably down to 4-10kv for your local block and then eventually drops down to 240v at the panel.
Most refineries transmit gas through pipelines or a tanker makes local deliveries of gas to a main terminal the the tanker makes local deliveries to the gas station. Then it's the last mile problem, same as the post office.
The break down is probably worked out in the cost per gallon for the fuel delivery. Whereas transmission line losses are higher as a percentage.
Which does nothing to address my overall point - many times we have to choose the “good enough” option because we don’t live in perfect utopias.
I can tell you first hand that your precious Tesla isnt going ANYWHERE with the state of our grid. The amount of effort and money it takes to maintain the existing grid is astronomical - the idea of ADDING capacity to it is a non-starter. Until laws and regulations are written to fast track and streamline electrical grid environmental and planning processes and permitting there will be no EV revolution, no matter HOW bad you want it.
OVERKILL
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Yup, and some plants are even higher. Bruce has a pretty good run to the GTA and it has triple 500kV lines as well as some shorter lower voltage ones (the 4K MW link is a double link IIRC):
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