It looks like electric vehicles are going to be shoved down our throats

[OVERKILL]

Well for New England you can just go check the demands and capacity factors. Looks like a low of around 11 gigawatts at night to a high of 17 gigawatts during the day with a max of 22 gigawatts now. During the winter they typically do maintenance when demand is low so some plants are offline, looks like they could have a max of 30 gigawatts, but they probably never really hit that as you always have some plants offline for whatever reason.

https://www.iso-ne.com/

So, a single EV charging at 220V 50A is ~19,000W or 19kW. 200,000 of them charging would be a 3.8GW load increase. There are a LOT more than 200,000 cars in New England though.

So then the issue becomes off-peak isn't anymore, so what happens to TOU pricing?

 

[Wolf359]

So, a single EV charging at 220V 50A is ~19,000W or 19kW. 200,000 of them charging would be a 3.8GW load increase. There are a LOT more than 200,000 cars in New England though.

So then the issue becomes off-peak isn't anymore, so what happens to TOU pricing?

Right, but they all don't need to be charged at the same time. Just like if every car went to the gas station at the same time, you'd quickly run out of gas which is what happens when there's a hurricane or a storm and every one rushes to fill up or stock up on groceries at the same time. There's about 5 million cars in New England though. Average distance is 13.5k a year. Not up for the math right now, what's the shortfall? Also average age of the car fleet is about 11.8 years so it'll be a while before it's all EVs, figure at least a 2-3 decades before you get close to 100%.

 

[OVERKILL]

Right, but they all don't need to be charged at the same time. Just like if every car went to the gas station at the same time, you'd quickly run out of gas which is what happens when there's a hurricane or a storm and every one rushes to fill up or stock up on groceries at the same time. There's about 5 million cars in New England though. Average distance is 13.5k a year. Not up for the math right now, what's the shortfall? Also average age of the car fleet is about 11.8 years so it'll be a while before it's all EVs, figure at least a 2-3 decades before you get close to 100%.

That's why I used the 200,000 figure, low-balling it. Most people who can will be inclined to plug it in when they get home, as that's the main benefit, so if all of those people are scheduling it for what is currently off-peak it isn't going to remain off-peak as the number increases, that's what I was getting at.

Off-peak usage and TOU is designed to drive people to use power when demand is the lowest to prevent the shutdown of plants that otherwise would need to. That incentive vanishes if that need no longer exists, so it will be interesting to see what happens to prices when that starts happening.

 

[edyvw]

I keep seeing announcements form the automakers saying they want to be all electric by 20XX. What about what the public wants? Do they think they can produce any type of vehicle they want and people will just buy them? I'm sure some people will warm up to electric vehicles, but there are also those who won't...I can tell you I have no desire to own one...

I am not sure why you think anyone is going to make you buy vehicle? Did anyone make you buy any vehicle you own or you owned?
Manufacturers are going to chase profit. ICE is not going away anytime soon, most definitely during this and next generation. Now, if manufacturer that you like move completely to EV, IDK, sue them?

 

[Wolf359]

That's why I used the 200,000 figure, low-balling it. Most people who can will be inclined to plug it in when they get home, as that's the main benefit, so if all of those people are scheduling it for what is currently off-peak it isn't going to remain off-peak as the number increases, that's what I was getting at.

Off-peak usage and TOU is designed to drive people to use power when demand is the lowest to prevent the shutdown of plants that otherwise would need to. That incentive vanishes if that need no longer exists, so it will be interesting to see what happens to prices when that starts happening.

It probably still has an incentive because if you remove it and everyone starts charging during the day, then your peak demand will go even higher. The grid usually takes 5-10 years to add capacity and it's not like EVs are going to take over in a year or two. At some point, they will probably make it so they can dispatch it, tell you whether it's ok or not to charge your car at a particular time. Could easily be done in software with the car hooked up to the internet.

 

[Wolf359]

I am not sure why you think anyone is going to make you buy vehicle? Did anyone make you buy any vehicle you own or you owned?
Manufacturers are going to chase profit. ICE is not going away anytime soon, most definitely during this and next generation. Now, if manufacturer that you like move completely to EV, IDK, sue them?

Yeah, it's always a little nutty thinking that the manufacturers are going to force anyone to buy anything. If no one buys them, they'll go out of business just like Saab, Hummer etc. But like Hummer, I'm sure there will be manufacturers who will continue to make ICE as long as there's a demand for it. I still like sedans and 6 cylinders and up so I'm just not going to buy certain years or models that just came with 4 cylinders.

 

[OVERKILL]

It probably still has an incentive because if you remove it and everyone starts charging during the day, then your peak demand will go even higher. The grid usually takes 5-10 years to add capacity and it's not like EVs are going to take over in a year or two. At some point, they will probably make it so they can dispatch it, tell you whether it's ok or not to charge your car at a particular time. Could easily be done in software with the car hooked up to the internet.

I expect most wouldn't be able to charge during the day, since they'd be at work. That's the convenience of plugging in when you are home for the day.

Yes, it could likely be centrally managed via "big brother" on the utility side assuming the cars all adhered to a standard. I assume the plug itself could also be "smart" which might rule out the requirement for having the cars all on the same system.

It's definitely something to watch and has me curious as to how it will be addressed going forward though.

 

[supton]

It's definitely something to watch and has me curious as to how it will be addressed going forward though.

Indeed. At the same time, nothing will be learned if one thinks they have to fully design out the end solution before doing something (or anything). Not all paths are successful--sometimes one has to fail in order to succeed. A great deal can be learned by trying and learning from what doesn't go to plan.

 

[JeffKeryk]

I expect most wouldn't be able to charge during the day, since they'd be at work. That's the convenience of plugging in when you are home for the day.

Yes, it could likely be centrally managed via "big brother" on the utility side assuming the cars all adhered to a standard. I assume the plug itself could also be "smart" which might rule out the requirement for having the cars all on the same system.

It's definitely something to watch and has me curious as to how it will be addressed going forward though.

Charging at work is common and is a great perk. Often subsidized or free. Charging at work is sometimes asked by potential new employees during an interview! That and free food is pretty common!
A few people have told me they never charge at home. But they all have more than 1 car, and the other is not an EV...
Work charging is so popular that you get billed if you leave your car in a stall after completing the charge. There is an app on your cell.
Of course things are different in Silicon Valley, but the rest of the world is sure to follow suit. It's called efficiency.

Regarding 50a rate, my car pulls a max of 32a. The Tesla Long Range cars can pull more, not sure what the numbers are.
And I don't know about other EVs. More importantly, I don't know much about electronics!

 

[OVERKILL]

Charging at work is common and is a great perk. Often subsidized or free. Charging at work is sometimes asked by potential new employees during an interview! That and free food is pretty common!
A few people have told me they never charge at home. But they all have more than 1 car, and the other is not an EV...
Work charging is so popular that you get billed if you leave your car in a stall after completing the charge. There is an app on your cell.
Of course things are different in Silicon Valley, but the rest of the world is sure to follow suit. It's called efficiency.

Regarding 50a rate, my car pulls a max of 32a. The Tesla Long Range cars can pull more, not sure what the numbers are.
And I don't know about other EVs. More importantly, I don't know much about electronics!

Yeah, we definitely don't have work charging here in any real capacity. I don't know of a single local location that does unless you work at the mall, as the mall has a few chargers in the parking lot.

 

[Oillover]

Gotta run and replace some tubes in my amplifier.

Where do you get your tubes? I need some for mine as well

 

[wemay]

Our office building's first floor parking garage is now half EV chargers.

 

[PimTac]

Our office building's first floor parking garage is now half EV chargers.

And I would expect that as demand increases plus electricity prices being on the rise, free charging will go away.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Yeah, we definitely don't have work charging here in any real capacity. I don't know of a single local location that does unless you work at the mall, as the mall has a few chargers in the parking lot.

When we 1st got the car, we drove around checking out charging. There is a large Kaiser Hospital clinic near; there are chargers scattered around the many buildings. Walmart is installing chargers. City hall has some free ones, but you will never get on. I would say there were more than 30 where I parked at work. Downtown Los Gatos has a parking lot behind a huge Safeway grocery store; there are about 20 Tesla chargers and 10 other types.
Please excuse my bad parking. This is at a Starbucks, in Menlo Park, near the Stanford campus.

 

[4WD]

Our office building's first floor parking garage is now half EV chargers.

So far our company has only given the EV’s a handy parking area … but no chargers …

 

[BLND1]

As a second car they are viable for many of you on here. This place (BITOG forum) is a board that is resistant to change to put it mildly. My wife's Santa Fe falls under the average trip from home miles.
quote-
Search Results
Average car trip distance
On a daily basis, the average person traveled 40 miles, most of it (35 miles) in a personal vehicle. Because more than one person can travel in a personal vehicle, these 35 person miles amounted to about 23 vehicle miles traveled. Annually, the total number of vehicle miles traveled in 2001 was nearly 2.3 trillion

These statistics make an electric car viable-at least for a second vehicle. Now-consider with the experience of working from home forced upon us by recent events-the miles driven are probably less, and may continue to be less if working from home is allowed after this whole thing is over.

BITOG is fear of the unknown/new tech on steroids.

Ah, yes - the “second vehicle” trope.
There is very much an urban vs rural/suburban disconnect in almost all of what you’ve said.
It also conveniently ignores a rich American tradition of travel and exploration - something inherent in our collective experience since people loaded up in wagons and boats to cross the vastness of our country. Electric works much better on urban and european scales. Load up your family in the electric minivan and drive out to Yellowstone or the Sierras? Not likely.
Far, far better arenas to tackle emissions than passenger vehicles (for now). Arbitrary deadlines will only hurt the lower classes and non-urban population.

 

[NormanBuntz]

Yes, and our nation's industries and power plants will burn more coal and natural gas to make the longlife batteries and to keep those EV's charged up. Some Green Deal.

 

[E365]

Yes, and our nation's industries and power plants will burn more coal and natural gas to make the longlife batteries and to keep those EV's charged up. Some Green Deal

Power plants are extremely efficient at converting oil/gas/coal into electricity, and EVs are extremely efficient at converting electricity to vehicle motion.

Gasoline cars are horribly inefficient at converting fossil fuels into vehicle motion.

Overall you come out way ahead on total (lower) energy usage with EVs.

 

[Astro14]

I am not sure why you think anyone is going to make you buy vehicle? Did anyone make you buy any vehicle you own or you owned?
Manufacturers are going to chase profit. ICE is not going away anytime soon, most definitely during this and next generation. Now, if manufacturer that you like move completely to EV, IDK, sue them?

When major manufacturers (like GM) announce that they will sell ONLY EV in the near future, that does, in fact, force you to buy only an EV.

Put differently, if, through governmental action, or company decision, you can't buy an ICE, then, well, yeah, you're forced to buy EV.

 

[Astro14]

Power plants are extremely efficient at converting oil/gas/coal into electricity, and EVs are extremely efficient at converting electricity to vehicle motion.

Gasoline cars are horribly inefficient at converting fossil fuels into vehicle motion.

Overall you come out way ahead on total (lower) energy usage with EVs.

Gasoline cars are not as inefficient as you claim.

Power plants are relatively efficient, but not quite as much as you imply.

EVs are not as efficient as you claim.

Line losses in the transmission of electric power further changes the equation so that a new Accord, for example, puts out lower greenhouse gasses per mile traveled than an EV that was charged up using a coal plant.

You do not come out ahead on energy usage, or on greenhouse gas emissions, with an EV unless it was charged with hydro, solar, or nuke.