Trend of single family home prices dropping hard in "non-hot markets"

[GON]

Starting to see large price drops in "non-hot" markets for single family homes. We are three years from retirement and I am monitoring home prices in about a dozen counties in multiple states, as we are looking for a retirement home.

In states like Utah, Arizona, and Texas not seeing the price drop trends. More so- in Utah not seeing many new listing for properties for sale.

Here is a example of what I am seeing in "non-hot" markets.

This home listed for $295,000. Price reduced $75,000 now offered at $220,000. Home is in Raymondville, MO. Not sure, but wondering if the housing market price ceiling has been reached in many areas, and the potentially overinflated pricing in some areas has hit reality.

7445 Apache Trl, Raymondville, MO 65555 | Zillow

7445 Apache Trl, Raymondville MO, is a Single Family home that contains 2044 sq ft and was built in 2008.It contains 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $203,800, which has increased by $4,713 in the last 30 days.The Rent Zestimate for this Single Family is...

www.zillow.com

 

[Lubener]

Still going strong in Ohio. Most sales are going for more than asking price.With school starting up soon, that will hurt sales some.

 

[ripcord]

My feeling is that any forthcoming interest rate hikes will hit home prices pretty hard in a lot of markets. A $2000 month home tends to want to stay a $2000 a month home.

 

[GON]

Still going strong in Ohio. Most sales are going for more than asking price.With school starting up soon, that will hurt sales some.

Glad to hear Ohio is doing well. I have concerns about the long term viability of many Northeastern and Midwest states, with so many residents and industries from those states migrating south and west. One real good thing many Northeast and Midwest states have going for them is ample availability of fresh water.

I worked temporarily in Lithuania a few years ago. Really enjoyed the former soviet block country- yet it is not doing well when compared to its other EU counterparts. I asked why.... answer always the same.... brain drain. Most of the talented/ educated young people from Lithuania leave Lithuania for England, Germany etc. EU laws make the move seamless. Wonder if some parts of the Northeast and Midwest are exposed to brain drain--- talented young people heading to the West and South on a macro basis.

 

[Rmay635703]

It’s called a bubble, not hard to understand

People paid two to three times more than they should have because of foreclosure bans binding up the market

Here's when the eviction ban, foreclosure moratorium and other Covid consumer protections expire

Financial protections keeping many households afloat throughout the coronavirus pandemic will end in the coming days and weeks.

www.google.com

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/08/01/tsunami-deferred-debt-is-about-hit-homeowners-no-longer-protected-by-foreclosure-moratorium/

Now we have business as usual opening up allowing for eviction and foreclosure.
My county alone right after July 4 had its first auction in a year with 30 tax foreclosures up for sealed bid, monthly home sales varied from a low of 8 to a high of 80 the last year and a half in this area so that’s a big hunk of real estate.

Add to this the wealthy coastal buyers that have messed up rural real estate are being forced back to the office or they have to get a job paying a tenth their current wage and they are facing foreign rental squatters

Redirect Notice

All in all a big mess, some areas will be driven even more expensive and others will loose big time.

 

[CKN]

Translation-the desirable states are always going to be expensive. My home-in Salt Lake County has gone up 250%-in NINE years. I had a family member who had to pay well over list price in Casa Grande, Arizona-40 miles in the middle of the desert from Phoenix-so yea,

 

[Rmay635703]

Translation-the desirable states are always going to be expensive. My home-in Salt Lake County has gone up 250%-in NINE years. I had a family member who had to pay well over list price in Casa Grande, Arizona-40 miles in the middle of the desert from Phoenix-so yea,

There are wells running dry not far from there, there are 30,000 dried wells out west concentrated among certain communities .

Lack of water may drive people out of certain communities reeking havoc on land values in a handful of yuppievilles camped alongside rural acreages

 

[ragtoplvr]

raymondville Missouri is one of the most economically depressed areas of the state, my in law is there.

They price and advertise nationally hoping to get rich retirees, building their homes is the best job in the area.

Not for everyone's taste, lots of driving if you want city things.

Rod

 

[GON]

raymondville Missouri is one of the most economically depressed areas of the state, my in law is there.

They price and advertise nationally hoping to get rich retirees, building their homes is the best job in the area.

Not for everyone's taste, lots of driving if you want city things.

Rod

Yes, but Zillow stats showed home prices went up 9.7% year over year in Dallas County, MO (county Raymondville MO is in).

Economically depressed areas such as Dallas CO, MO and even Chochise CO, AZ (only CTY in AZ to have a population decline over past decade) have seen near double digit growth in housing prices over past year.

 

[PandaBear]

\Wonder if some parts of the Northeast and Midwest are exposed to brain drain--- talented young people heading to the West and South on a macro basis.

See it all the time here in the Bay Area. Despite all the people who hated it here and wanted to move out (and they did), there are a lot of young to mid career people coming in for the higher pay. After tax and cost of living many are still saving a ton more.

The people who left tends to be the one with kids from K12, they need school district and it is expensive here.

 

[zzyzzx]

This home listed for $295,000. Price reduced $75,000 now offered at $220,000. Home is in Raymondville, MO. Not sure, but wondering if the housing market price ceiling has been reached in many areas, and the potentially overinflated pricing in some areas has hit reality.

7445 Apache Trl, Raymondville, MO 65555 | Zillow

7445 Apache Trl, Raymondville MO, is a Single Family home that contains 2044 sq ft and was built in 2008.It contains 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The Zestimate for this Single Family is $203,800, which has increased by $4,713 in the last 30 days.The Rent Zestimate for this Single Family is...

www.zillow.com

Are you finding this a lot? I have to wonder if it's more along the lines of someone who was asking too much in the first place.

 

[PandaBear]

raymondville Missouri is one of the most economically depressed areas of the state, my in law is there.

They price and advertise nationally hoping to get rich retirees, building their homes is the best job in the area.

Not for everyone's taste, lots of driving if you want city things.

Rod

That's the dilemma in a lot of situation when the population is the decision maker and the population is the reason new economy is not coming in. Many cities transitioned from the older industry (farming, manufacturing) to newer (tech, finance), it saved the cities but it ruined the long time residents life. However without the change (and eventually drive out the long time residents) the city will decline with the population.

During the transition a lot of clashes will happen, politically and social economically. You see those argument online all the time about techbro bashing as well as Texans not welcoming Californians outbidding them with Californian money, and many prior clashes back in the cowboys and sheriffs days that turns bloody.

You also see that in companies when they transition, needing layoff and hiring new people of different skills.

 

[PandaBear]

Are you finding this a lot? I have to wonder if it's more along the lines of someone who was asking too much in the first place.

What I learned recently is, maybe a trend spreading over to the rest of the US, that listing doesn't matter anymore. Sometimes they list a price super low to attract bidding and it is really the closing price that matters.

I've placed offer that were above and below listing before, and got accepted.

In my neck of the wood we have a listing of 1.6M home that was bidded to 2.4M, a record of the nation I think and becomes news everywhere. We local knows 1.6M is a fake listing and 2.4M is the real market price.

 

[The Critic]

Starting to see the B/B- condition homes sit for > 14 days now. And this is in a very hot Bay Area market. These are homes that would have seen 5-10% above asking offers within 7 days in May/June.

 

[czbrian]

It good to hear some reality is coming back to certain areas. My grandmother died a few years ago and my uncles and mother have been holding on to the house. They finally started down the path of selling and my brother made a good offer at the end of last year. My uncles declined thinking the house went up in value 50% in just a couple years in a dirt poor area of South Texas. This house was built in the 60's and hasn't been updated much since. They should have just sold it to him and now they still have the house and have been accumulating maintenance, utilities and property taxes.

 

[GON]

Are you finding this a lot? I have to wonder if it's more along the lines of someone who was asking too much in the first place.

Good question. Not saying the property was overpriced.... it appears to likely have been.

I get daily notices of new listings, price drops, etc., in a dozen or so counties across the USA that I am tracking. What I was not seeing was price drops in any of these counties over the past six months (prior to JUL 2021). Over the past month, I am seeing price drops in "non-hot" markets, some of them substantial.

Just sharing a revised trend from zero price drops in a dozen counties across the USA to seeing daily price drops in "non-hot" market counties. Some of them five figure price drops.

 

[CharlesInCharge]

What I learned recently is, maybe a trend spreading over to the rest of the US, that listing doesn't matter anymore. Sometimes they list a price super low to attract bidding and it is really the closing price that matters.

I've placed offer that were above and below listing before, and got accepted.

In my neck of the wood we have a listing of 1.6M home that was bidded to 2.4M, a record of the nation I think and becomes news everywhere. We local knows 1.6M is a fake listing and 2.4M is the real market price.

Seems risky, because if nobody bids and a full price qualified offer comes, the seller is legally obligated to perform.

On the topic, I saw a big jump to the point of unreasonable prices in my area. But it seems to be softening a bit. I'm waiting for the real bubble to burst. A end to the moritoriums on evictions/foreclosures, the end of free money, people have to return to work and live within budgets, etc. Actually live near where they work, not where they collect unemployment and stimulus, etc. The soon end of near free loans and financing. I don't see the pricing of the last 12 months as sustainable whatsoever. I'm anticipating a 2009-2011 type correction in the near term, in 6-18 months.

 

[Wolf359]

Seems risky, because if nobody bids and a full price qualified offer comes, the seller is legally obligated to perform.

Yeah but only if the seller accepts the offer. If they don't, no signed offer means it's not legally binding.

 

[CharlesInCharge]

Yeah but only if the seller accepts the offer. If they don't, no signed offer means it's not legally binding.

If I offer to sell something at a certain price, and someone shows up with a qualified offer, cash, etc. at that price, I think I'm legally obligated to sell it. Otherwise, I can expect a lawsuit. And if the prospective buyer is a member of a protected class, probably a civil rights violation. I'm just saying it's risky to list something too low thinking/expecting a bidding war.

 

[Lyman]

I have been watching the market. Northern Texas is still cheap. Lots of homes around $200k or below. I know someone that moved from CA to Plainview TX.