2024 Macro single family home prices prediction

[zzyzzx]

For every homeowner fleeing California, there is a well educated immigrant family to purchase their California house.

Laughable!

 

[SubieRubyRoo]

I think he is partially right. The US will never see a doctrinal recession again. Whoever is hurting, regardless of faut or reason, will be bailed out. Every passing of spending requires major earmark projects for every congressional district.

Without getting political, one can only print money for votes for so long. I think a complete economic collapse is very feasible, but the result will be mega inflation, Argentina like. Those with hard assets will have some protection.

Some of the financial stuff is over my head, but he predicted the fallout from the money printing you referenced will result in a huge “evaporation” of $, skipping a recession and going into full-on deflation. I don’t quite get how that side of it will work (the evaporation) but it does make more sense than the printing out of thin air… since it is the labor of people that create products that generate value.

I’m not sure if it will pan out the way this guy sees it happening, but the world sure could use all the billionaires being knocked down a bunch of pegs. They put their pants on the same way we do…

 

[gfh77665]

Could a young couple do what you did when they bought YOUR house?

Yep. Each work a job, economize across the board, live on one (or less than one income. In three years or so pay off a 200K house.

 

[gfh77665]

But that isn't everyone. My house is 1700 square feet on an acre and 1/4. Formica counter tops, vinyl floors, vinyl windows and laminate. You are making a very large generalization about people and housing. In my area my house will sell for anywhere between 600,000 to 700,000. There is nothing special about my house. Central Air and T-111 siding. Smaller than your house even. Most of the work force at PSNS and Bangor are Gen Z and Millennials. They all work hard and are filling the gap the retiring boomers are leaving (who by the way will get 80 percent of their base pay. Me? I will get about 40 percent. If my kid choses to work there he will get less). Welders, Electricians, electronics techs, you name it. Doing the same job. They just don't bet paid enough to purchase the median priced home here.

Thats why people are fleeing overpriced, over restricted blue states. Come to the great economy of TX and be amazed.

https://www.har.com/homedetail/15807-crystal-brook-dr-houston-tx-77068/9701159

8307 Champion Forest Cir, Spring, TX 77379 - HAR.com

Sold: 8307 Champion Forest Cir, Spring, TX 77379 ∙ $215,001 - $250,000 ∙ 0.30 Acres Lot ∙ 3,042 Sqft, 4 beds, 2 full and 1 half baths, Single-Family ∙ View more.

www.har.com

12710 Raven South Dr, Cypress, TX 77429 - HAR.com

Sold: 12710 Raven South Dr, Cypress, TX 77429 ∙ $250,001 - $285,000 ∙ 0.19 Acres Lot ∙ 3,020 Sqft, 4 beds, 2 full and 1 half baths, Single-Family ∙ View more.

www.har.com

Dozens more readily available. Super easy to find.

 

[mr_boring]

GON, another thought. There is some growth of popularity towards manufactured homes vs. stick built. Manufactured homes are not mobile homes......so we need to first set that record straight.

In my neck of the woods, nearly zoned out of existence unfortunately

 

[ls1mike]

Thats why people are fleeing overpriced, over restricted blue states. Come to the great economy of TX and be amazed.

https://www.har.com/homedetail/15807-crystal-brook-dr-houston-tx-77068/9701159

8307 Champion Forest Cir, Spring, TX 77379 - HAR.com

Sold: 8307 Champion Forest Cir, Spring, TX 77379 ∙ $215,001 - $250,000 ∙ 0.30 Acres Lot ∙ 3,042 Sqft, 4 beds, 2 full and 1 half baths, Single-Family ∙ View more.

www.har.com

12710 Raven South Dr, Cypress, TX 77429 - HAR.com

Sold: 12710 Raven South Dr, Cypress, TX 77429 ∙ $250,001 - $285,000 ∙ 0.19 Acres Lot ∙ 3,020 Sqft, 4 beds, 2 full and 1 half baths, Single-Family ∙ View more.

www.har.com

Dozens more readily available. Super easy to find.

Moving is not always the answer, it is not always that simple. Lots of big Navy Shipyards in Texas. What is the starting wage of welder there? Electrician? Electronics tech with a specialty in marine applications?

 

[ls1mike]

In my neck of the woods, nearly zoned out of existence unfortunately

Manufactured homes? Why is that?

 

[Dave Hess]

Thats why people are fleeing overpriced, over restricted blue states. Come to the great economy of TX and be amazed.

https://www.har.com/homedetail/15807-crystal-brook-dr-houston-tx-77068/9701159

8307 Champion Forest Cir, Spring, TX 77379 - HAR.com

Sold: 8307 Champion Forest Cir, Spring, TX 77379 ∙ $215,001 - $250,000 ∙ 0.30 Acres Lot ∙ 3,042 Sqft, 4 beds, 2 full and 1 half baths, Single-Family ∙ View more.

www.har.com

12710 Raven South Dr, Cypress, TX 77429 - HAR.com

Sold: 12710 Raven South Dr, Cypress, TX 77429 ∙ $250,001 - $285,000 ∙ 0.19 Acres Lot ∙ 3,020 Sqft, 4 beds, 2 full and 1 half baths, Single-Family ∙ View more.

www.har.com

Dozens more readily available. Super easy to find.

Very nice.

 

[mr_boring]

Even with interest rates as they were, the HAI was more favorable to you at that time than it is today. Furthermore, you were able to refi continually for the next 30 years to lower your rate.

You can’t ignore the fact it’s quantitatively less affordable now to buy a house than ever. Your feelings about generational attitudes are irrelevant in light of the hard numbers.

I purchased my first house during the housing recession. I busted my butt to do it, but I don’t kid myself into thinking the timing didn’t also align correctly for me then.

Yeah, I bought my first one in 2009. That was rough. I did refi it once interest rates dropped below 5%

Then I got divorced in 2020. Sold that house for a lot less than it should have gone for, but my bi-polar ex lived there alone for few months when we first separated and she quite literally took a hammer to it. Had no choice but to sell it at a loss to a flipper.

Then I bought another one in 2020. That was even rougher. Financing was a breeze, finding one that didn't sell on the first day it was posted at up to 25% over the asking price was what was a killer. I got lucky in the end. I'd made a dozen, maybe 15-18 offers in a 2 month span and missed out (some as much as 10% over asking price) and one night my realtor texts me at like 11pm. Said he'd gotten one that was going on the market the next morning but he could show it to me at 6 before it posted. I looked at it at 6, he made the offer (asking price at 8AM) and they accepted before noon. He told me they had quite a few other offers come in after they accepted mine that were higher but they'd signed the contract....

I paid 20k more than I think the house was worth, but I'm at 2.89% interest........ and it's supposedly worth 96k more TODAY than I paid for it lol.

3/2 2 car garage 1225 square feet 23 year old home today worth almost 300k my rear end.....

My house payment with insurance and taxes is over $1500 - it's the taxes that make it more than $1000 - 8k per year

So it's not just harder because home prices are inflated and interest rates are up. City taxes (in my little town) are ridiculous. Had I bought in the county, my house payment would probably be 1150-1200

 

[KrisZ]

Yep. Each work a job, economize across the board, live on one (or less than one income. In three years or so pay off a 200K house.

A 200k home yes I that would be doable.

 

[goingplacesanddoingstuff]

You are totally ignoring the difference in the housing, too. My parents had a 950 sq. ft. 2-1 on cinder blocks with wood ship lap siding, no central HVAC, old asbestos tile floors and formica counters.

Actually, I’m not. The HAI is median income and median home price. See my previous post.

A generation later my 1989 home was 2000 sq. ft., all brick, cathedral ceilings, ceramic tile and granite countertops. Today’s McMansions have no limit. 3000+ ft., connectivity, 10 ft, ceilings, super well insulated, top quality everywhere and everything. THATS what people miss when comparing housing values. Let’s compare apples to apples.

Again, look at the posted HAI graphs. Median home.

Lastly my 30 something friend at work cries so much about "how hard it is" today. He lives in one of thoses big houses, buys a new F-150 every 2-3 years, vapes, drinks starbuck coffee, and is all tatted up. He owns several motorcycles and 4 wheelers and more expensive guns than I can count, just for kicks. I did none of the above.

The fact your acquaintance is bad with money is not germaine to this conversation. It’s very easy to find people who are bad with money. PS tattoos are not a job hindrance anymore.

The fact remains it is quantitatively more difficult for a median income household to afford a median house mortgage payment now than at any time in history.

All this poo-pooing of those struggling to buy into the housing market is just ignorant feel-good back-patting from older generations as far as I’m concerned. The data clearly shows macroeconomic factors at play - and the reality is that houses are simply the least affordable they have ever been in an absolute sense.

And FYI I am saying this as a millennial real estate investor who has owned multiple houses. Have you looked at the market in detail lately? We have high demand, low supply, relatively expensive capital, generally higher taxes, higher energy costs, etc. The sum of these factors have increased monthly payments faster than incomes have risen, and that’s simply a cold hard fact.

 

[mr_boring]

Manufactured homes? Why is that?

Lobbyist have won their fight to zone almost all residential property as stick built only. When I got divorced I found out real quick that a doublewide (which was what I really wanted) or a modular was going to require me to live out in a few select areas littered with 10-30 year old trailers. And those lots that already had well and septic were running 20-40k

 

[Dave Hess]

I think he is partially right. The US will never see a doctrinal recession again. Whoever is hurting, regardless of faut or reason, will be bailed out. Every passing of spending requires major earmark projects for every congressional district.

Without getting political, one can only print money for votes for so long. I think a complete economic collapse is very feasible, but the result will be mega inflation, Argentina like. Those with hard assets will have some protection.

Through the 1970s, many middle class Americans worked 5 1/2 to six days per week. Are Americans willing to work more to get the US economy strong if a collapse happens? I hope so, but .......

My dad was an A&P mechanic for Pan Am. Stay at home mother, 4 kids, 2 cars, good healthy food and new 3/2/2 ranch style home here in Florida. One paycheck could afford this back in the late 1960’s. Union jobs could support this comfortable middle class lifestyle.

Today this would be extremely difficult to support a family of 6 on 1 paycheck.

 

[StumblingElk]

Our homes today are literally 3x the size they were in the 1950's.
And buyers continually demand an ever increasing level of comfort and sophistication. Couple that with the supply of land being unchanged (obviously) , an increasing population demanding homes, higher interest rates (lately), Burdensome regulations in some places (like St Paul), etc it becomes pretty obvious why home prices continue to rise.

That said, a free market can rectify this. And we must also keep in mind that education and housing are just about the only expenses that have outpaced inflation in the last 80 years.

Housing prices also vary A LOT depending on location. In my area (midwest metro of ~500k people) you can still buy a starter home under $100k. $175k buys a family home.

 

[gfh77665]

Actually, I’m not. The HAI is median income and median home price. See my previous post.


Again, look at the posted HAI graphs. Median home.


The fact your acquaintance is bad with money is not germaine to this conversation. It’s very easy to find people who are bad with money. PS tattoos are not a job hindrance anymore.

The fact remains it is quantitatively more difficult for a median income household to afford a median house mortgage payment now than at any time in history.

All this poo-pooing of those struggling to buy into the housing market is just ignorant feel-good back-patting from older generations as far as I’m concerned. The data clearly shows macroeconomic factors at play - and the reality is that houses are simply the least affordable they have ever been in an absolute sense.

And FYI I am saying this as a millennial real estate investor who has owned multiple houses. Have you looked at the market in detail lately? We have high demand, low supply, relatively expensive capital, generally higher taxes, higher energy costs, etc. The sum of these factors have increased monthly payments faster than incomes have risen, and that’s simply a cold hard fact.

The 'median home" is vastly different from those 2-3 generations ago.

Tats are illustration of spending priorites, just like his guns and vapes and motor toys and new F-150's. How did you miss that?

Bottom line is people feel entitled, want to bailed out when confronted with (self inflicted) difficulties like student loans, and whine about everything. A "bad day" today is 2 bars out of 4 on their $1000 I-phone or slow service at Starbucks.

 

[KrisZ]

Some of you guys sure like to stereotype.

 

[GON]

I'd say you're wrong on the well educated part... I can say this based on my family out in CA. They have high school educations but their jobs is only a step or two above min wage. And they all work 2-3 jobs. It's rough for them for anything above normal expenses.

I see many family from East Asia and the Middle East immigrate to California. The members of these families are often very well educate, and many of the family members have STEM degrees.

 

[goingplacesanddoingstuff]

The 'median home" is vastly different from those 2-3 generations ago.

So you’re saying families with median incomes can still afford progressively less-than-median priced homes. That depends on where you live, your tolerance for gang activity/crime, and many other factors.

Bottom line is people feel entitled, want to bailed out when confronted with (self inflicted) difficulties like student loans, and whine about everything. A "bad day" today is 2 bars out of 4 on their $1000 I-phone or slow service at Starbucks.

Even if these factors are true, they aren’t the primary reason for the problem. The primary reason is a fed that dumped free cash into the market for years.

 

[KrisZ]

Even if these factors are true, they aren’t the primary reason for the problem. The primary reason is a fed that dumped free cash into the market for years.

No man, that's just more excuses. 22% of homes went to big investment companies/hedge funds, oops more excuses. We're clearly not working hard enough...

 

[dishdude]

Thats why people are fleeing overpriced, over restricted blue states. Come to the great economy of TX and be amazed.

https://www.har.com/homedetail/15807-crystal-brook-dr-houston-tx-77068/9701159

8307 Champion Forest Cir, Spring, TX 77379 - HAR.com

Sold: 8307 Champion Forest Cir, Spring, TX 77379 ∙ $215,001 - $250,000 ∙ 0.30 Acres Lot ∙ 3,042 Sqft, 4 beds, 2 full and 1 half baths, Single-Family ∙ View more.

www.har.com

12710 Raven South Dr, Cypress, TX 77429 - HAR.com

Sold: 12710 Raven South Dr, Cypress, TX 77429 ∙ $250,001 - $285,000 ∙ 0.19 Acres Lot ∙ 3,020 Sqft, 4 beds, 2 full and 1 half baths, Single-Family ∙ View more.

www.har.com

Dozens more readily available. Super easy to find.

No wonder they're so cheap, the taxes are $8,238 and $7559. Almost $700 in tax per month