Misleading headline regarding home foreclosures; is there any integrity in media sources?

[mr_boring]

I dabble just a touch in real estate around Charlotte NC/Rock Hill SC. The market has slowed a bit here. I have seen a few foreclosures but nothing crazy. New homes are still going like hotcakes within Mecklenburg and York County. Older homes are what has slowed a bit.

Granted, so much new housing goes up that it is absolutely insane. My company's owner has 200+ acres that this building sits on and it's surrounded by new housing. He bought it in the 90's and built this place. He and his brothers are MANY times over millionaires but if he ever decides to sell, this will be a mint. It's in SC but so close to Charlotte NC I can walk out to my truck and see Carowinds.

 

[GON]

Yahoo News is a joke too.

If you can provide the name of a news organization without a hardcore agenda to influence, please let me know. I have had zero success finding a single one in the U.S.

 

[Thermo1223]

If you can provide the name of a news organization without a hardcore agenda to influence, please let me know. I have had zero success finding a single one in the U.S.

Your local news, they usually have no benefit from putting a slant on things.

 

[GON]

Your local news, they usually have no benefit from putting a slant on things.

Please provide the stations or publications. I would love to find some non spin news sources, at this time I am not aware of a single one.

Looking forward to what you post.

 

[k1xv]

The housing market is dysfunctional right now due to mortgage rates rising from the 3% range to the 8% range. The normal churn of people selling homes and moving into new homes has been interrupted, because nobody wants to sell a house where they have a 3% mortgage, to move into a new house where they need a 8% mortgage.

And there are a lot of homeowners with those 3% mortgages due to refinancing.

So housing supply is low as nobody really wants to sell. And nobody wants to build, because financing costs of construction are high.

Right now, buyers with all cash are in the best place. And the only really motivated sellers are executors of estates, selling vacant homes formerly owned by the recently deceased.

 

[GON]

The housing market is dysfunctional right now due to mortgage rates rising from the 3% range to the 8% range. The normal churn of people selling homes and moving into new homes has been interrupted, because nobody wants to sell a house where they have a 3% mortgage, to move into a new house where they need a 8% mortgage.

And there are a lot of homeowners with those 3% mortgages due to refinancing.

So housing supply is low as nobody really wants to sell. And nobody wants to build, because financing costs of construction are high.

Right now, buyers with all cash are in the best place. And the only really motivated sellers are executors of estates, selling vacant homes formerly owned by the recently deceased.

A hasty check of publicly traded home builders equity reflects the home builders are doing well. Lennar homes is using it cash like to buyback it's own stock.

Everywhere I look, new homes are selling extremely well, the exception is when the new homes are on a very undesirable lot.

My wife and I would love to find a new construction home on a decent lot being sold at a discount, we have yet to come across anything.

 

[zzyzzx]

The housing market is dysfunctional right now due to mortgage rates rising from the 3% range to the 8% range. The normal churn of people selling homes and moving into new homes has been interrupted, because nobody wants to sell a house where they have a 3% mortgage, to move into a new house where they need a 8% mortgage.

Something like 40% of all houses are owned outright and don't care about mortgage rates. I think it's the price of houses that's keeping people from moving. Why would I trade a 500K house in the northeast for a 500K house in Florida when the "2000 sq ft" house in Florida doesn't have a basement or attic that my "2000 sq ft" house in the Northeast has (making the Florida house effectively much smaller)? I understand that in many other sunbelt locations the who no attic no basement situation is the same. Plus, it's not like this last winter is going to make anyone want to move someplace warmer.

 

[gfh77665]

I won't click on it, keep in mind real estate is regional, now more than ever!

 

[PandaBear]

I don't think it is a click bait. Not everyone bought their home a long time ago and financed with 3.5% APR 30 year fixed. Many probably just got in barely at 8% recently or ARM loan that's due to change, and hoping that refi would be possible when rate drop didn't happen soon enough for them. This always happen from the peak of a boom, but was it compare to historic high or low? That's what you have to decide. Anything from historic low foreclosure is going to be "soaring".

 

[BMWTurboDzl]

So you posted a clickbait article so we would click on it

First thing to realize is that the author doesn't create the headline - the publisher does. So you could have a clickbait headline with a reasonable article behind it.

The article simply says forclosures are up. I live in the Charleston metro area and I wouldn't be surprised. The prices are still close to double from ten year ago, but way below their peak of 2 years ago. Tons of people flocked here 2 years ago and bought up everything - for Airbnb properties (because we were open when other states were not) and people who thought they could keep their NYC salary and work from home in Charleston. If they didn't put much down, they could absolutely be under water now - so there not going to be afforded a short sale until they go into default.

Due to a love of sailing I "almost" moved there so many times during my youth. I even got an offer to sell sailboats as a college grade (100% commission of course..lol). My parents had a second home on Isle of Palms for 30 yrs which they sold about a decade ago. Thankfully.

 

[BMWTurboDzl]

The headline is: Home foreclosures are soaring nationwide – and rising fastest in these 5 states.
Reading the article, I suspect it is clickbait. Housing continues to sell at record highs. Good homes almost always are under contract less than after 72 hours after hitting the market. In many cases, good homes will be under contract the day the home is listed for sale. It should also be noted that foreclosures have been very low for the past few years, so a rise in foreclosures may be a meaningless statistic.

With home prices at record highs, homeowners should not be under water. My speculation is the homeowner that is not paying their mortgage is selecting to stay in the home and ride out the foreclosure process, which can take years. These distressed homeowners likely can find a buyer to buy same day for the balanced owed on the home (speculation). Maybe these homeowners think the American taxpayers will pay the mortgage for them, who knows.

Here are the top five states the article lists as "fastest rising foreclosures:
- South Carolina, foreclosures surged 51%,
-Missouri saw a 50% jump
-Pennsylvania a 46% increase
-Texas rose 7%
- Indiana climbed 0.8%.

I have come to the conclusion the article is in fact click bait/ fake news. If Indiana is in the top five, at under one percent rise in foreclosures- that speaks for itself. I might see how Pennsylvania and Missouri are in the top five. South Carolina and Texas have been such hot sousing markets, they likely had so very little foreclosures over the past five years.

Home foreclosures are soaring nationwide – and rising fastest in these 5 states

Home foreclosures are on the upswing nationwide, according to a new report, a sign that homeowners are still struggling from the ongoing inflation crisis.

finance.yahoo.com

If anything it really points to how low the numbers actually are. If you're truly interested in nonperforming assets look at the quarterly statements from the GSE's rather than anything on Yahoo.

 

[BMWTurboDzl]

If you can provide the name of a news organization without a hardcore agenda to influence, please let me know. I have had zero success finding a single one in the U.S.

You need to learn how to recognize news from editorialized news. Some news shows are more editorialized than others. The WSJ news stories are pretty good. WSJ Opinion is excruciating sometimes.

 

[SC Maintenance]

Due to a love of sailing I "almost" moved there so many times during my youth. I even got an offer to sell sailboats as a college grade (100% commission of course..lol). My parents had a second home on Isle of Palms for 30 yrs which they sold about a decade ago. Thankfully.

It was a good place to raise kids - at the time. Now its just too crowded. I need to either more into the city and embrace it or move far away from here altogether. I have 2 finishing up college - when they decide I will decide I guess.

 

[BMWTurboDzl]

It was a good place to raise kids - at the time. Now its just too crowded. I need to either more into the city and embrace it or move far away from here altogether. I have 2 finishing up college - when they decide I will decide I guess.

All that "Yankee Money" made it too expensive. *jkng*

You'll move to N. Georgia and plant an Olive tree farm. Just watch.

 

[Rmay635703]

Something like 40% of all houses are owned outright and don't care about mortgage rates. I think it's the price of houses that's keeping people from moving. Why would I trade a 500K house in the northeast for a 500K house in Florida when the "2000 sq ft" house in Florida doesn't have a basement or attic that my "2000 sq ft" house in the Northeast has (making the Florida house effectively much smaller)? I understand that in many other sunbelt locations the who no attic no basement situation is the same. Plus, it's not like this last winter is going to make anyone want to move someplace warmer.

Sort of, depending on what fuzzy logic we include into the single family metric (which I would say is significantly less than 33m paid off mortgages we view as a normal single family home)

We get in my mind roughly half of “paid off” mortgages as being held by some type of investor. More fuzzy if you try to desern which are owned in proxy or foreign owned, let alone which are pure corporate.

So the reality is it’s likely only about a max of 18% of mortgages that are actually liquid without some type of encumbrance to freely move, add in the wide range of other legal encumbrances and even HOA bilaws and that number is likely even smaller for the free and clear owner lived in houses.

That said these investor owned, including the place I rent are most likely to dump into the market without warning at a large loss tossing the renters into the street as many areas still lack any meaningful amount of open rental property.

 

[daves87rs]

I’m sure there is a tick up on them….but nothing crazy like they are saying.

My bet might be some folks that bought writhing the last few years and overpaid by quite a bit- then lost their jobs.

 

[Rmay635703]

I’m sure there is a tick up on them….but nothing crazy like they are saying.

My bet might be some folks that bought writhing the last few years and overpaid by quite a bit- then lost their jobs.

Last few weeks have been having a variety of layoffs (again) amongst most 6-7 figure earners.

With losses across the board in the auto market we can expect lots more layoffs across the auto related sectors including financing and accessories

With the yield curve perpetually inverted and a continued growth in layoffs it will only take a small uptick in unemployment to start an avalanche of commercial foreclosures which are already working their way through . Commercial foreclosures will drive a mass of calls as banks try to get bad debt of all types off the books including any minorly late loans. This will spill into auto and home loans and into additional layoffs.
Feedback circle at that point which will increase the number of recent mortgages moving into foreclosure

Mortgage Delinquencies Increase in the Fourth Quarter of 2023

The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.88% of all loans outstanding at the end of the fourth quarter of 2023, according to the MBA National Delinquency Survey.

www.mba.org

With FHA loans making up a larger percentage of loans these closing in on a delinquency rate of nearly 11% is likely the first mass of loans to offload followed by the growing closing in on 2.5+% of conventional loans in the same state.

Remember it was a 0.79% increase in a quarter and has continued growing.

 

[daves87rs]

Last few weeks have been having a variety of layoffs (again) amongst most 6-7 figure earners.

With losses across the board in the auto market we can expect lots more layoffs across the auto related sectors including financing and accessories

View attachment 215916
With the yield curve perpetually inverted and a continued growth in layoffs it will only take a small uptick in unemployment to start an avalanche of commercial foreclosures which are already working their way through . Commercial foreclosures will drive a mass of calls as banks try to get bad debt of all types off the books including any minorly late loans. This will spill into auto and home loans and into additional layoffs.
Feedback circle at that point which will increase the number of recent mortgages moving into foreclosure

Mortgage Delinquencies Increase in the Fourth Quarter of 2023

The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.88% of all loans outstanding at the end of the fourth quarter of 2023, according to the MBA National Delinquency Survey.

www.mba.org

With FHA loans making up a larger percentage of loans these closing in on a delinquency rate of nearly 11% is likely the first mass of loans to offload followed by the growing closing in on 2.5+% of conventional loans in the same state.

Remember it was a 0.79% increase in a quarter and has continued growing.

The auto sector was going to be in cost cutting mode more anyways as companies cut/adjust staff for the coming of EVs. But more won’t help based on slowing sales. Many of the cut folks at for ICE at Ford mostly adjusted to other fields. I sense some of the same here.

I think the bigger question is if the cuts start crossing heavy into other industries, especially the service industry .

Then I can start seeing foreclosures picking up some steam……

 

[Rmay635703]

The auto sector was going to be in cost cutting mode more anyways as companies cut/adjust staff for the coming of EVs. But more won’t help based on slowing sales. Many of the cut folks at for ICE at Ford mostly adjusted to other fields. I sense some of the same here.

I think the bigger question is if the cuts start crossing heavy into other industries, especially the service industry .

Then I can start seeing foreclosures picking up some steam……

Commercial real estate is already in mass foreclosure across the nation, nobody has made big moves to step on the bomb yet hopeing these entities will start getting cash flow.

Neither the management companies nor the bank want the properties.

There are already -700 new car dealers under bank ownership with their inventory going to auction.
FDIC sales are up as well.

Just as the home market affects commercial(2009) the opposite can occur as well.

 

[SC Maintenance]

I often hear people say we can’t be slowing because employment is high. But employment is a lagging indicator. Companies cut other costs first. Also 70% of employment is in the service sector. So it’s trickle down. Manufacturing and construction start slowing so they lay off. When those people slow service purchases the snowball starts.

Still I don’t know how you get to recession with them printing 7.5% of GDP? I think it will be tough. We will need to relearn what crowding out and stagflation are.