2024 Macro single family home prices prediction

[GON]

Watching prices, days to contract after listing, etc, I see single family homes continue to rise in 2024, and sell for all time record highs.

Homes that have good floor plans and are priced right, will go under contract in under five days. Bidding wars will be common for homes with good floorplans. Housing will continue to set record high selling prices.

I suspect the way to get a "value" price on a home is to build it yourself. Tons of risks and challenges being a contractor. But I see no relief in prices for homes with good floorplans on a MACRO basis in 2024. Instead, I see all time record high prices.

Of one market, I am amazed at the strength of the Arizona market- mind blowing strong, to include remote and not well-designed single-family homes.

 

[cptbarkey]

Further widening of the haves (land owners) and the have nots (renters).

 

[JeffKeryk]

I have been working with a friend for years to get into something around here. Thought the market would cool a little and we would pounce. Didn't happen. The pandemic? Nope. In Sep - Nov we got into a 55+ community in Watsonville. 900 sq ft, 2/1, 1 car garage. $520K. He's ecstatic. Finally...

 

[GON]

I have been working with a friend for years to get into something around here. Thought the market would cool a little and we would pounce. Didn't happen. The pandemic? Nope. In Sep - Nov we got into a 55+ community in Watsonville. 900 sq ft, 2/1, 1 car garage. $520K. He's ecstatic. Finally...

Is that $520k USD for a two bedroom/ 1 bath/ 1 car garage the base price, or the closing price? Recently I saw in Prescott Valley, AZ a new construction home for $899k USD. Closing price for that model averaged 1.3 million, $400k USD above base price. I started to wonder if the builder in Prescott would actually sell the home at the base price. Of note, a lot of people from California move to the greater Prescott AZ area, so paying 1.3 million for a new construction home with a base of 899k USD likely not a big deal/ deal killer.

 

[dnewton3]

We are currently looking in the PHX metro area. Prices are nuts; so much so that we're rethinking our plans and looking into alternatives. I built the last two houses where we live in IN; contracted some work and did some myself. I didn't want to do that out here, but it may have to happen that way.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Is that $520k USD for a two bedroom/ 1 bath/ 1 car garage the base price, or the closing price? Recently I saw in Prescott Valley, AZ a new construction home for $899k USD. Closing price for that model averaged 1.3 million, $400k USD above base price. I started to wonder if the builder in Prescott would actually sell the home at the base price. Of note, a lot of people from California move to the greater Prescott AZ area, so paying 1.3 million for a new construction home with a base of 899k USD likely not a big deal/ deal killer.

Selling price. This is entry level single family housing.

 

[Wrenchturner44]

GON, another thought. There is some growth of popularity towards manufactured homes vs. stick built. Manufactured homes are not mobile homes......so we need to first set that record straight.

 

[alarmguy]

Further widening of the haves (land owners) and the have nots (renters).

Home ownership rate has not changed over 50 years.
It's really important for people to look up statistics and not rely on anything they read written by one person in the so called media.
Here is factual data. You will see a peak leading up to 2008, that is because the Fed loosened lending standards only to ultimately get blamed for it.
Homeownership is far higher then ever starting in the 1950's

https://ipropertymanagement.com/research/homeownership-rate-by-year

 

[GR_CoB]

For our next home Manufactured is likely going to be the way to go.

 

[GON]

GON, another thought. There is some growth of popularity towards manufactured homes vs. stick built. Manufactured homes are not mobile homes......so we need to first set that record straight.

In the 1970s/ 1980s, a friend's Dad was as smart as they come. There was nothing he could not fix, nothing. And he didn't need a lot of tools to fix things- still in awe of this man. His family grew up very poor, and most of the family were garbage men, primarily so they could get first dibs on things being thrown out to fix/ rehab.

This man was convinced homes built in sections in a factory were of significantly better quality than a home built on a lot. I think the issue with manufactured homes is limits on ceiling heights, and the celling height limitation limits windows. I am from the school that a home should be framed with 2x6, not 2x4. Very few subdivision homes come with 2x6, and I suspect 2x6 is not likely an option with a manufactured home.

Thanks for pointing this out, your reply is inspiring me to take a second look at manufactured homes. I only took a look at one manufactured home builder. The builder was Utah based, and their homes went for over one million dollars.

 

[cptbarkey]

Home ownership rate has not changed over 50 years.
It's really important for people to look up statistics and not rely on anything they read written by one person in the so called media.
Here is factual data. You will see a peak leading up to 2008, that is because the Fed loosened lending standards only to ultimately get blamed for it.
Homeownership is far higher then ever starting in the 1950's

https://ipropertymanagement.com/research/homeownership-rate-by-year

Your article contradicts your statement in at least 4 different ways.

 

[nickaluch]

The issue by me there is zero inventory so the few that go up for sale go quick with crazy prices. With high interest rates I don't see people selling to up size by me when they have a 3% rate now.

 

[alarmguy]

Your article contradicts your statement in at least 4 different ways.

View attachment 196079

If you can say how that might help. Are you talking about a fast dip because of Covid? That is a dip, but the rate was still high. Look at the graphs and compare.
There is nothing in your post that contradicts anything. Are you referring to the biggest decline in history as a contradiction? It is not. It declined 1.1% One point one percent and what was going on during that 1.1% ? Covid and still the ownership rate was at its highest point than in the last decade.

This is not my article, these are statistics. Cant spin statistics. Check the numbers. Ownership rate never went below 63% since the 1960s and never near the level of the 1950s

 

[cptbarkey]

If you can say how that might help. Are you talking about a fast dip because of Covid? That is a dip, but the rate was still high. Look at the graphs and compare.
There is nothing in your post that contradicts anything. Are you referring to the biggest decline in history as a contradiction? It is not. It declined 1.1% One point one percent and what was going on during that 1.1% ? Covid and still the ownership rate was at its highest point than in the last decade.

This is not my article, these are statistics. Cant spin statistics. Check the numbers. Ownership rate never went below 63% since the 1960s and never near the level of the 1950s

Where did I say home-ownership rate is increasing? You literally said it has not changed in 50 years, your article says its clearly decreasing. Dont know what else to say.

 

[Hillbilly Deluxe]

Further widening of the haves (land owners) and the have nots (renters).

Awww, that's too bad.

I grew up dirt poor. In the 70's, I was in elementary school, living in a trailer park in Alabama on the north side of Montgomery. I raked pine straw in the winter and mowed the little trailer lot yards for $3 each in the summer. Looked for empty Co-cola bottles your parents threw out of their new car on the side of the road; I'd take them to the grocery store on Saturday when my mother went and cash them in for the deposit, go next door to the drug store or Service Merchandise and buy matchbox cars, fishing lures or something else.

I was raised that I needed to get an education; one that would allow me to obtain a "good" job, that had health insurance, benefits, etc. I also knew that I was poor; my friends at school didn't live like we did. All those people that say they didn't know they were poor growing up, weren't really poor. You d**** well when you are if you have half a brain.

I knew I didn't want to live like I grew up. I wanted all the stuff my friends had. I knew I had to work to get it. Work like a dog. And I did. I'm 52 and I have put in my time. We live in a nice, large home on 10+ acres in an area that will soon be another bustling, over-crowded, over-developed suburb of Atlanta. We won't be here, we will be living in another area that doesn't have street lights either.

If you want something, go to work, make some money and go buy it. If you want some land, figure out how to make the money to buy it. Start now. Yes, you are correct, it's not going to get any cheaper and they don't make any more of it.

When you do, please don't come in here screaming, whining and crying like a little ***** about the property taxes. Those are being collected to pay for stuff for people that don't want to get off their butt and go to work.

I'm not seeing a booming number of people that are out there giving it their best to kill it. I'm seeing a GROWING number of the population that is more interested in face piercings, face, neck and highly visible arm/hand tattoos, going to retail establishments in pajamas, haven't run a comb or brush through their hair, haven't shaved in a month and quite frankly, don't care. These people aren't trying to better themselves. They are just wanting to exist on whatever is handed to them. Their biggest effort is put into ordering from GrubHub, loading up on Redbull, lottery tickets, weed and frozen dinners.

 

[alarmguy]

Where did I say home-ownership rate is increasing? You literally said it has not changed in 50 years, your article says its clearly decreasing. Dont know what else to say.

Im not arguing. If you look at the graph, you will clearly see homeownership at its highest level in history over the past 50 years within 63 to 65% and a few years upper 60% range. Im not sure what someone can expect more from those numbers. Im not challenging you, you are challenging me and the numbers.

 

[gfh77665]

Awww, that's too bad.

I grew up dirt poor. In the 70's, I was in elementary school, living in a trailer park in Alabama on the north side of Montgomery. I raked pine straw in the winter and mowed the little trailer lot yards for $3 each in the summer. Looked for empty Co-cola bottles your parents threw out of their new car on the side of the road;

If you want something, go to work, make some money and go buy it. If you want some land, figure out how to make the money to buy it. Start now. Yes, you are correct, it's not going to get any cheaper and they don't make any more of it.

When you do, please don't come in here screaming, whining and crying like a little ***** about the property taxes. Those are being collected to pay for stuff for people that don't want to get off their butt and go to work.

I'm not seeing a booming number of people that are out there giving it their best to kill it. I'm seeing a GROWING number of the population that is more interested in face piercings, face, neck and highly visible arm/hand tattoos, going to retail establishments in pajamas, haven't run a comb or brush through their hair, haven't shaved in a month and quite frankly, don't care. These people aren't trying to better themselves. They are just wanting to exist on whatever is handed to them. Their biggest effort is put into ordering from GrubHub, loading up on Redbull, lottery tickets, weed and frozen dinners.

Thank you, thank you, and thank you!

 

[The Critic]

I suspect the way to get a "value" price on a home is to build it yourself.

What cost per sq ft do you envision?

 

[GON]

What cost per sq ft do you envision?

Great question, I have not done even the basic math.

I used to buy home construction products from Peak Auctions. One could get a full house of very high end windows for often under five cents on the dollar. Wealthy people having homes built would not like the color of the window frames, etc. It is a huge challenge to exploit opportunities like using a lot of windows in a new construction home. I think most times the home would end up looking the the Griswold station wagon.

I suspect the change in the housing/ building market has changed what Peak auctions off. The last three peak auctions I went to was Chinese junk, not mistake orders. Quite possibly mistake orders are rare, because of the time to get custom built windows/ cabinets, etc...

https://www.peakauction.com/

 

[alarmguy]

GON said:
I suspect the way to get a "value" price on a home is to build it yourself.

What cost per sq ft do you envision?

I got to agree, production homes in communities to me are very reasonable I think @GON isnt taking into account the land cost and area.
Beautiful homes in incredible communities here in Coastal NC and SC around $200 a sq ft for a well upgraded home, Complete, soup to nuts with land and utilities, out the door price. Amenity Centers the works.
Can be bought for closer to $160 to 180 a sq ft new out the door with less options.