The US to raise import tariff on Chinese exports from 10% to 25%

[PimTac]

Originally Posted by kschachn
It isn't necessarily where you went, it is where the thread is inevitably destined to go.

Threads are not often locked or deleted based on the first post alone.

I just read the Lordstown thread. Then I saw this.

🙄

 

[javacontour]

There really is no control. We don't know what would have happened if there was no trade war or tax cut last year.

A few things to consider. Lots of baby boomers are retiring. So low unemployment has as much to do with lower labor participation as it does a growing economy.

The economy was juiced last year with the tax cuts. We won't see that same stimulation this year, so it's not sustainable.

Long term history is on my side. Tariffs do more harm than good. Yeah, the aluminum and steel industries like having their competition knee capped. Tariffs did nothing to make them more productive. What they do is put up barriers to competition.

Meanwhile, you have outfits like a local nail manufacturer in Southern MO that can no longer compete with Mexican made nails because the price of their steel rose with the tariffs. So the steel they buy is more expensive, but nails can be imported for less than it costs them to make them now.

That's just one example. How many more industries have to pay more for metals and other goods due to the tariffs?

How long until cars, appliances and other items are more costly due to higher costs for steel and aluminum?

What about having to give BILLIONS to farmers (from the US taxpayer) because farmers cannot sell their goods overseas due to retaliatory tariffs?

How is Harley Davidson doing with respect to selling bikes overseas since the trade war heated up?

What about trade deficits, up or down? (They were up, not down.) What about the Federal Budget Deficit (again up!)

Again, not political. The economy really doesn't care about your political leanings. Markets do what they do regardless your political beliefs.

I simply don't believe the current economic environment is sustainable. So we may have growth now. We may have low unemployment now and some wage growth. But I don't believe it will last because the whole of the economic factors won't let it.

We will drop back to something more along the lines of Western Europe once the temporary juicing of the economy from the 2018 tax cuts has run its course. There probably isn't as much capital to bring back to the US in 2019 and beyond. The bulk has already been brought back.



Originally Posted by Danno
Originally Posted by javacontour
Originally Posted by Danno
Good, should be 50%.
Especially after the Chinese backed out of months of negotiations on Friday.


I'm sure they too have a copy of "The Art of the Deal" somewhere to consult...

Regardless your political leanings, tariffs seem to put 5-10 jobs in jeopardy for every job "protected" and the tariffs are paid by consumers, not producers.

This is an economic, not a political view.


Real life experience would refute your economic theory.
US is knocking it out of the park on employment growth and historic low unemployment levels.
Inflation seems to be in control and you have decent wage growth.
That can only happen if productivity grows at a good rate.

I can only look with envy from Canada, at the US economic performance.

 

[Danno]

Originally Posted by javacontour
There really is no control. We don't know what would have happened if there was no trade war or tax cut last year.

A few things to consider. Lots of baby boomers are retiring. So low unemployment has as much to do with lower labor participation as it does a growing economy.

The economy was juiced last year with the tax cuts. We won't see that same stimulation this year, so it's not sustainable.

Long term history is on my side. Tariffs do more harm than good. Yeah, the aluminum and steel industries like having their competition knee capped. Tariffs did nothing to make them more productive. What they do is put up barriers to competition.

Meanwhile, you have outfits like a local nail manufacturer in Southern MO that can no longer compete with Mexican made nails because the price of their steel rose with the tariffs. So the steel they buy is more expensive, but nails can be imported for less than it costs them to make them now.

That's just one example. How many more industries have to pay more for metals and other goods due to the tariffs?

How long until cars, appliances and other items are more costly due to higher costs for steel and aluminum?

What about having to give BILLIONS to farmers (from the US taxpayer) because farmers cannot sell their goods overseas due to retaliatory tariffs?

How is Harley Davidson doing with respect to selling bikes overseas since the trade war heated up?

What about trade deficits, up or down? (They were up, not down.) What about the Federal Budget Deficit (again up!)

Again, not political. The economy really doesn't care about your political leanings. Markets do what they do regardless your political beliefs.

I simply don't believe the current economic environment is sustainable. So we may have growth now. We may have low unemployment now and some wage growth. But I don't believe it will last because the whole of the economic factors won't let it.

We will drop back to something more along the lines of Western Europe once the temporary juicing of the economy from the 2018 tax cuts has run its course. There probably isn't as much capital to bring back to the US in 2019 and beyond. The bulk has already been brought back.


You can always pick and choose specific examples to back up your point of view.
Big picture - US is doing well.
Is it sustainable? Who knows, time will tell.

 

[4WD]

Well I was serious about NAFTA …
Really, if you don't smell the coffee on China … you're still asleep under the covers …

 

[sloinker]

The tariffs on metals has hurt our manufacturing industry and farmers in retaliation. Those sectors have lagged while tech and the lower paying sectors increased. I think the USA and our allies should place an embargo on all things Chinese and start building artificial Islands and military bases in the South China seas. The Chinese would then really pay attention at the trade table.

 

[javacontour]

Which is why I provided some counter examples to the ones that backed up your PoV.

But again, history is on my side. In trade wars, it's not a question of winning. It's more like trying to lose less than the other guy.

There are no real winners in war, even economic war. Just differing levels of losses.

Originally Posted by Danno

You can always pick and choose specific examples back up your point of view.
Big picture - US is doing well.
Is it sustainable? Who knows, time will tell.

 

[Danno]

Originally Posted by javacontour
There are no real winners in war, even economic war. Just differing levels of losses.

Given the US trade deficit with China, US lost that battle a long time ago.
But not the war, yet.

 

[LoneRanger]

IBTL

 

[PandaBear]

My bet is this thread will go political and get locked by post #40. I can't think of a reason why this won't turn political, some of us will make it that way.

 

[Donald]

Unfortunately there is no real thought or strategy behind this change in tariffs.

 

[demarpaint]

Originally Posted by PandaBear
My bet is this thread will go political and get locked by post #40. I can't think of a reason why this won't turn political, some of us will make it that way.

My bet too. IBTL

 

[RamFan]

I love a good political debate, BITOG is not the place for one. I wish we could legitimately speak about current events here, unfortunately due to the echo chamber this site becomes when anything economic or remotely political is discussed, it's clearly not what's best.

 

[grampi]

Our trade deficit with China can't go on forever. Do any of you who are against the tariffs have any better ideas?

 

[CT8]

We need to consider what the tariff China or other nations charge on U.S.products. Most would be surprised

 

[javacontour]

Originally Posted by grampi
Our trade deficit with China can't go on forever. Do any of you who are against the tariffs have any better ideas?

Why not?

If someone has a comparative advantage then let them do what the can do better?

If they are selling at a loss, I would be a fool to buy at a higher price.

Selling at a loss is the real unsustainable play. As is trying to complete in areas where others have a comparative advantage.

I've given the example of the lawyer and the legal aide and typing. Even if the lawyer is the faster typist, it is a better use of his resources to hire the slower aide so he can keep billing clients for his time at $200/hour.

Trade is the same. If China has an endless supply of "aides" then we need to leverage that and put our workers on a more valuable task.

 

[pbm]

Originally Posted by Danno
Good, should be 50%.
Especially after the Chinese backed out of months of negotiations on Friday.

(quote= Donald) Unfortunately there is no real thought or strategy behind this change in tariffs.


For decades the Chinese have manipulated their currency, stolen intellectual property, demanded technology from companies wanting to do business there and a host of other nefarious trade practices....and now we are finally fighting back (after several administrations rolled over and played dead)....and it seems there are many who would rather see US fail than have HIM succeed…

If the tariffs cause the prices of Chinese products to rise....it may help American workers.....I would rather pay $100 more for an American made refrigerator than a Chinese one...

PS: Since tariffs are 'political' by nature it's hard to keep this thread 'non-political'.....

 

[PimTac]

Originally Posted by pbm
Originally Posted by Danno
Good, should be 50%.
Especially after the Chinese backed out of months of negotiations on Friday.

For decades the Chinese have manipulated their currency, stolen intellectual property, demanded technology from companies wanting to do business there and a host of other nefarious trade practices....and now we finally are fighting back....and it seems there are many who would rather see us FAIL than have HIM succeed….

Spot on.

 

[4WD]

Originally Posted by pbm

Good, should be 50%.
Especially after the Chinese backed out of months of negotiations on Friday.

If the tariffs cause the prices of Chinese products to rise....it may help American workers.....I would rather pay $100 more for an American made refrigerator than a Chinese one...

So would I … or buy one made in Canada or Mexico any day before China …

 

[JC1]

I wonder what places like Harbor freight will have to increase prices by with this change.

 

[Gebo]

Originally Posted by PimTac
Originally Posted by pbm
Originally Posted by Danno
Good, should be 50%.
Especially after the Chinese backed out of months of negotiations on Friday.

For decades the Chinese have manipulated their currency, stolen intellectual property, demanded technology from companies wanting to do business there and a host of other nefarious trade practices....and now we finally are fighting back....and it seems there are many who would rather see us FAIL than have HIM succeed….

Spot on.

X 25% LOL

For one real life example that I was personally involved in let me take you to a high end office furniture supplier in Roanoke, VA. He got his raw materials from all over the world. Some of his wood came from some special area in Russia.

He said China uses the exact same raw materials as he does but they can sell delivered to the USA the same style and quality furniture he does for what the raw materials cost him. For what his cost of materials are. He said the Chinese
govt subsidizes their produces allowing them to sell to us much cheaper. NOT FAIR!

I asked him how he survived and he said simply because many times we here in the USA don't plan far enough in advance and have to have office furniture in the NYC high rises in a month or less. China furniture comes
on a ship and can be several months out. He basically survives selling HOTSHOT furniture.