The EV battery discussion thread (bogus breakthroughs)

[Cujet]

I swear if the people on this board ran the world we’d still have leaded gas and manual chokes.

Actually I take that back. We’d still be riding in horse drawn carriages.

I'm no luddite, far from it in fact. I truly enjoy modern stuff in all it's glory. I do not look back at older stuff as better.

But when people try to tell me that battery electric vehicles can compete, I bring up the lowly $20,000 Nissan Altima, capable of 36MPG, at 90MPH, and will go 600+ miles at that speed.

And back to my OP, when people try to tell me that batteries are getting exponentially better, that "breakthroughs" are just around the corner, I'm here to tell you that I don't believe it.

With 1eV per atom, electrochemical energy storage has finite limits.

 

[CKN]

I swear if the people on this board ran the world we’d still have leaded gas and manual chokes.

Actually I take that back. We’d still be riding in horse drawn carriages.

Well yes-that's why my post said that the "OP" hit the "sweet spot" on BITOG for a topic. The tech-phobia on this site is rampant.

 

[ABN_CBT_ENGR]

I know I've cited this personal example on here before, but for the benefit of the present audience I'll reiterate.

Wind is a somewhat similar excursion into stupidity with it producing grossly out of phase with demand and thus the only reason it was constructed and operated is due to the fixed rate contracts so that when it drives market prices negative, it doesn't matter, as the developer gets that sweet ratepayer funded $0.148/kWh they were promised, and if they are forced to curtail? They get paid a similar rate for "potential generation". It's a boondoggle of epic proportions foisted on the Ontario ratepayers by green-eyed morons with absolutely zero understanding of how grids operate and despite pleas from professionals in the industry (like the Society of Professional Engineers) imploring them not to.

Thanks for the example. Just more proof to the point that the entire "green" energy movement is a technical Ponzi scheme brought forth and pushed for a political agenda. It has nothing to do with clean energy, renewable energy or cheaper energy.

As long as the first 3 laws remain in effect, it can never work as advertised. It cannot replace current conventional power no matter how much people rant and rave- the numbers simply do not add up.

Anyone who believes otherwise is suffering from stage 4 suspension of disbelief.

 

[ABN_CBT_ENGR]

The techophobia (I just made that word up) on this site is rampant.

phobia is a fear of presumably technology- theres no fear in what I say so what about using legitimate science to factually refute a fraudulent one?

What word have you made up for that?

 

[OVERKILL]

phobia is a fear of presumably technology- theres no fear in what I say so what about using legitimate science to factually refute a fraudulent one?

What word have you made up for that?

Indeed. I'm a huge proponent of nuclear and hydro-electric, both of which are significantly more technical than wind and solar. I'm simply a fan of effective solutions that actually perform as advertised and succeed on that merit rather than fantasy "solutions" which succeed on the basis of subsidy and optics.

 

[ABN_CBT_ENGR]

effective solutions that actually perform as advertised and succeed on that merit rather than fantasy "solutions" which succeed on the basis of subsidy and optics.

I would respectfully submit that they are NOT succeeding in any measurable way even with a stacked deck and political influence shoring them up- otherwise they wouldn't have to force them upon the world and deliberately lie about the metrics in every case..

 

[Cujet]

My panels are guaranteed for 25 years. My break even point calculation is 6 to 7 years given past PGE usage and cost.

I have a few panels too.

However, grid tie solar does not reduce power production fuel consumption, at least not yet. As inefficient 'peaker' power plants need to be ready to crank up when the sun and wind are out of commission. It can save the panel owner money, and that's it's strong point.

A 60% efficient combined cycle power plant can be run at predicted capacity efficiently.

A widespread or large capacity solar/wind/peaker setup with a combined cycle power plant uses just as much fuel.

With that in mind, any way you slice it, EV's use more BTU's to go a mile than today's hybrids do.

 

[OVERKILL]

I would respectfully submit that they are NOT succeeding in any measurable way even with a stacked deck and political influence shoring them up- otherwise they wouldn't have to force them upon the world and deliberately lie about the metrics in every case..

I meant succeed in terms of being constructed, that is, the proponents of these products are succeeding in having them deployed.

 

[OVERKILL]

I have a few panels too.

However, grid tie solar does not reduce power production fuel consumption, at least not yet. As inefficient 'peaker' power plants need to be ready to crank up when the sun and wind are out of commission. It can save the panel owner money, and that's it's strong point.

A 60% efficient combined cycle power plant can be run at predicted capacity efficiently.

A widespread or large capacity solar/wind/peaker setup with a combined cycle power plant uses just as much fuel.

Indeed, and wind or an over-penetration of solar paired with nuclear reduces the efficiency of the nuke, resulting in more maneuvers and an overall higher emissions footprint, as solar is about 4x more emissions intensive than nuclear and wind requires fast-ramp gas to buffer it, as large gigawatt thermal units can't ramp fast enough.

Where I can see solar working is at limited penetration paired with pumped hydro storage to depress daytime peaking requirements while the pumped storage covers the morning/evening ramps. If you had that on top of a base of nuclear, hydro or both, that's a workable low-emissions solution. But of course that means putting a hard cap on PV capacity.

 

[blingo]

when people try to tell me that batteries are getting exponentially better, that "breakthroughs" are just around the corner, I'm here to tell you that I don't believe it.

A bunch of candidates over time presenting a bouquet of improvements regarding several aspects (safety, materials, charge rates, pricing and packaging etc.) make no exponentialism to be feared. They remain a bunch of candidates over time presenting a bouquet of improvements regarding several aspects (safety, materials, charge rates, pricing and packaging etc.) whose mistakes may need to be corrected, be they with GM or Hyundai, NIO or BYD, Toyota or VW, Volvo or Aiways. Not even Tesla is to be feared. They are into propaganda like other branches are but will learn on a next level. Have no fear over wording to the tune of exponentially or breakthrough.

 

[4WD]

-

 

[PimTac]

I get the impression lately that a lot of the powers to be think that society is like some computer video game. Don’t like the way things are? Just hit reset and change the world.

Humans like transitions over time. That way they learn about the technology and use it for their benefit.

It’s always best to buy the horse first before buying the cart. Same with electric vehicles. Let’s get the power generation up to speed and charging facilities ready before we try to coerce the driving consumer to get a EV.

 

[UncleDave]

Packs are built in such a way as to mimize individual cell variations and based on long term S tests look like they degrade pretty predictably.

A 100KW battery pack depleted to 70 is still a bunch of juice to have as a home backup and likely a ton cheaper than a new cell,
Not sure how easy or practical it is to move around a single giant pack, but it would for sure work.

Jack Ricard is an interesting character to watch analyze batteries.

Seem like every conversation turns to green, How green it is way down the importance chart for me. I know the charging pro's and cons.
I like the driving dynamics electrics provide.

On Solar ROI - Not all solar is equal. At my LA house I used my prime roof area for hedonism vs practicality and put up 12 4x10 water heating panels. It ROI'd out of gas bills in under 5 years and it is good for about 20.
There were other benefits as well like dramatically extending the swim season and being able to get a 30+ degree differential to the jacuzzi off the roof. I did a lot of business and entertaining in that crib and the Ladies will not swim in cold pools.

 

[UncleDave]

With that in mind, any way you slice it, EV's use more BTU's to go a mile than today's hybrids do.

As delivered to the vehicle - I'm not sure that is universally true.

A gallon of gas is what 124000 BTU? - lets say this takes you 50 miles @ 70 in an accord hybrid.
a KWH of electricity is 3412 BTU- lets say this takes you 4.25 miles @ 70 MPH in a model 3

Thats 2480 btus per mile in the accord, and 802 btu per mile in the Tesla.

I can make the case the tesla isnt any cheaper, but I'm not sure that i can say it uses more BTU.

What am I missing?

 

[PimTac]

For the sake of fair comparison, are there studies that compare the total energy impact of EV versus ICE?

We have to consider it from the source. Energy needed to produce the batteries or fuel including drilling, mining etc. then we have transport whether it’s by wire or by pipeline and truck. Then the energy used to deliver the final product to the customer. Gasoline pumps powered by electricity for example.

It starts to get very complicated.

 

[UncleDave]

For the sake of fair comparison, are there studies that compare the total energy impact of EV versus ICE?

We have to consider it from the source. Energy needed to produce the batteries or fuel including drilling, mining etc. then we have transport whether it’s by wire or by pipeline and truck. Then the energy used to deliver the final product to the customer. Gasoline pumps powered by electricity for example.

It starts to get very complicated.

This complication is why Im using the "as delivered to the vehicle" number.

You have significant losses and costs in both delivery chains.

There are many studies, few complete, few unbiased.

How does one amortize the cost of the 5th fleet to patrol the straights of Hormuz to insure the petrodollar standard?

 

[PimTac]

This complication is why Im using the "as delivered to the vehicle" number.

You have significant losses and costs in both delivery chains.

There are many studies, few complete, few unbiased.

How does one amortize the cost of the 5th fleet to patrol the straights of Hormuz to insure the petrodollar standard?

That’s how it gets complicated.

 

[JeffKeryk]

For the sake of fair comparison, are there studies that compare the total energy impact of EV versus ICE?

We have to consider it from the source. Energy needed to produce the batteries or fuel including drilling, mining etc. then we have transport whether it’s by wire or by pipeline and truck. Then the energy used to deliver the final product to the customer. Gasoline pumps powered by electricity for example.

It starts to get very complicated.

Agreed. The problem with facts, statistics, etc. is, you can twist them to support your point of view.
Do we include the cost of wars, pollution, electric grid building and maintenance, forrest fires from aging infrastructure, battery recycling and ultimate disposal?

 

[PimTac]

Agreed. The problem with facts, statistics, etc. is, you can twist them to support your point of view.
Do we include the cost of wars, pollution, electric grid building and maintenance, forrest fires from aging infrastructure, battery recycling and ultimate disposal?

All or most of those could apply to electric energy as well. As the energy source shifts, military strategy has to shift with it.

I don’t think anyone is twisting anything here, it is just a vastly complicated process on both sides.

 

[blingo]

Without the additions of the 5th fleet another ~20kWh or ~75000 Btu would go into the production of the gasoline, this alone illustrates the potential of error at the fuel station.
A ton of comparisons exist, probably a ton per scenario of electricity generation. Where those are set in motion, the vehicles while in use become better day by day. Of course everyone's free to likewise organize his DME or Biobutanol fuel or else for the improvement of existing ICE.