The fact that in my entire experience with big green wind projects as well as a few dozen personal ones with people and panels, I have NEVER seen a genuine legitimate verifiable ROI when ALL costs are captured and evaluated evenly.
The bulk of my ISO 55001 work in asset management is on life cycle costing and utilization so I know exactly what to look for, ask for and how to properly calculate it.
You have seen a small example in this thread when I ask "those questions" and have to tell clients the truth of how much these "savings' really cost them.
Believe me, if they existed, people would post them on billboards and say "see, whoop there it is".
They don't and the reasons are as I stated. They always are. They never change.
And if it 'really worked" and all that with a bag of chips- they would be on every street corner and we would all have them by now just like indoor plumbing.
I know I've cited this personal example on here before, but for the benefit of the present audience I'll reiterate.
We have a local 10MW solar farm. It was built under a FIT contract back when the provincial government went balls-deep on the Green Energy adventure and subsidized wind and solar to the point of tripling residential rates.
Fixed-rate contract for the facility is $0.42/kWh for 20 years and it cost $45 million to construct. Current wholesale average price of power in the province is ~$0.12/kWh, nuclear is paid $0.088, hydro $0.065 IIRC.
Based on the contract rate, the facility would take about 9 years to be paid off. Unfortunately, 1/3rd of the panels saw a dramatic decline in output after the facility was only a few years old and they all were replaced. The cost of the replacement is unknown, but with ratepayers backing a guaranteed profit, it was a safe bet.
Had the facility NOT been subsidized and instead been paid a price that approached its value (which would be less than hydro, since its not dispatchable) of let's say $0.05/kWh it would make $700,800/year, or $14 million over the 20 year lifespan of the panels (barring premature failure), so it never would have paid for itself.
In reality, with that CAPEX fixed and not factoring in the cost of the massive panel replacement exercise or interest, at 14,300MWh/year it would take $0.17/kWh to just cover the construction cost within the lifespan of the panels. This doesn't include maintenance and repairs, groundskeeping, property taxes on the near 200 acres it occupies...etc.
Wind is a somewhat similar excursion into stupidity with it producing grossly out of phase with demand and thus the only reason it was constructed and operated is due to the fixed rate contracts so that when it drives market prices negative, it doesn't matter, as the developer gets that sweet ratepayer funded $0.148/kWh they were promised, and if they are forced to curtail? They get paid a similar rate for "potential generation". It's a boondoggle of epic proportions foisted on the Ontario ratepayers by green-eyed morons with absolutely zero understanding of how grids operate and despite pleas from professionals in the industry (like the Society of Professional Engineers) imploring them not to.
