stock market

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832
Location
FL
Don't know what part of mine is, but probably at least 1.7% as that's what Tesla represents in the S&P 500.

For a wild ride, try Bitcoin, I think it was over 41k and now down to 38k, it was under 20k just a month ago.

3X leveraged tech has given me the wild ride and growth since April.

Again, only 10% is a mix of higher risk.
 
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Messages
10,759
Location
MA
3X leveraged have given me the wild ride and growth since April.

Again, only 10% is a mix of higher risk.
I think 3x gives you wacky returns like only really 2x as they only shoot for 3x per day. On bad days you lose 3x or more so you only end up average 2x.
 

Al

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19,251
Location
Elizabethtown, Pa
Vanguard ETFs
VTI- Domestic Stocks
VXUS -Global Stocks
BND- Domestic Bonds
BNDX-Global Bonds

Basic Compost of Vanguard Target Retirement Funds. Expense ratio around .03%o_O
 
Messages
17,450
Location
Silicon Valley
It's clear the fundamentals for Tesla doesn't make sense. But of course it's not clear it has to come down if it keeps getting propped up. I thought it was ready to come down last year, but it's a good thing I'm not a short seller as they got really burned. It's possible it might have a little more legs and instead of coming down, it could just go sideways for a while. Microsoft was like that at one point, went up and didn't really move much for 10 years.
I am not sure how big the luxury / near luxury car market is and how much further can Tesla steal from those 50-70k market with a start up disruption car making method. Sooner or later they will need to compete with the Camry and Corolla and you know they probably won't be able to do the same efficiency that Denso and Toyota can do, for a 20 year reliability and reputation. I think that would be the real test in long term valuation.

I do think that Tesla can rob lunch money from Mercedes, Audi, Cadillac, Lexus, etc for a few more years.
 
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10,759
Location
MA
I am not sure how big the luxury / near luxury car market is and how much further can Tesla steal from those 50-70k market with a start up disruption car making method. Sooner or later they will need to compete with the Camry and Corolla and you know they probably won't be able to do the same efficiency that Denso and Toyota can do, for a 20 year reliability and reputation. I think that would be the real test in long term valuation.

I do think that Tesla can rob lunch money from Mercedes, Audi, Cadillac, Lexus, etc for a few more years.

Doesn't really appeal to me. Just for fun I looked up the used car prices, I can get a used E class cheaper.

Plus at a certain point, you'd like to be able to run out to the corner auto parts store and be able to get parts. I was able to get an alternator for my Mercedes at Autozone although I had to order it online, but it was delivered the next day. You also like other independent repair shops that know how to fix them instead of being limited to the manufacturer.

But regardless, Tesla is down 7.8% today. Could just be a head fake so for those looking to get in, now may be the time.
 
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10,759
Location
MA
E class are nice but it doesn’t have the wow factor of a Tesla.
They also don't have the same features. Like a Panorama roof that actually opens. I'm surprised the Model S doesn't have Apple Carplay/Android auto. Even the power seat is only one memory, Mercedes has had 3 for a long time.
 
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6,788
Location
Los Gatos, CA
Doesn't really appeal to me. Just for fun I looked up the used car prices, I can get a used E class cheaper.

Plus at a certain point, you'd like to be able to run out to the corner auto parts store and be able to get parts. I was able to get an alternator for my Mercedes at Autozone although I had to order it online, but it was delivered the next day. You also like other independent repair shops that know how to fix them instead of being limited to the manufacturer.

But regardless, Tesla is down 7.8% today. Could just be a head fake so for those looking to get in, now may be the time.
I wonder why an E Class is cheaper?

You went to get an alternator; Tesla doesn't have one. In fact the drivetrain has like 17 moving parts.
There is a shortage and delay for body components needed for collision repair, but mechanically they don't ask for much in comparison.

At the end of the day, people generally buy what they want, not what they need.
It's their money and their decision.

Kinda surprised to see you pick a point in time stock value. It was $730 Jan 1st, it closed at $811 today.
It was $100 a year ago.

All good.
 
Messages
10,759
Location
MA
I wonder why an E Class is cheaper?

You went to get an alternator; Tesla doesn't have one. In fact the drivetrain has like 17 moving parts.
There is a shortage and delay for body components needed for collision repair, but mechanically they don't ask for much in comparison.

At the end of the day, people generally buy what they want, not what they need.
It's their money and their decision.

Kinda surprised to see you pick a point in time stock value. It was $730 Jan 1st, it closed at $811 today.
It was $100 a year ago.

All good.
Probably because it hasn't been out as long, not too many used Model 3 out there and the Model S was way more.

Used you also have issues with the age of the battery. On a regular car, you would think that the engine/transmission should be good for at least 150-200k or more. Lithium ion definitely has a fixed life span of how many charges you can get out of it so you'd worry a little about the cost of a replacement battery pack, but I guess you could probably rebuild them cheaper instead of getting a new one.

Check out this 2016 E-350 with 49k. Has pretty much everything I'd want. Driver assistance package, pano roof, parktronic, real leather, lighting package, heated and cooled seats, etc. and all for $22,500. What does the equivalent Tesla go for?


It's a stock market thread so just staying current. Doesn't help me if it falls as it's now in the S&P 500 so when it goes down, so does my holdings. Nasdaq is down even more and it's also part of that too. Today just seems a down day for "bubble" items like Tesla and Bitcoin although bitcoin seems to be recovering. Could just be a head fake where it shifts negative only to go up more later. Bitcoin has already covered a little from its low today.
 
Messages
832
Location
FL
I believe the markets will enjoy no more daily circus shows and additional hand holding.

Tesla will do much better once the factory in Texas is up and running.
 
Messages
832
Location
FL
Next 6 months will be soooo sweet with all that money being pumped in....

Not allowing any big organizations or businesses to fail will keep everything propped up.
 
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1,511
Location
TX
it's interesting to see a bit of a shift into large cap techs. apple has been making me smile for the last couple of days. expecting amazon to go the moon towards the earning and hopefully will benefit some off of it. ARKs on the other hand, with Tesla and Roku doing nothing, has been having a bit of a pullback again, which is ok. refuel the tanks and straight to the moon. can't wait for ARKX to launch - momma Cathie is for sure taking us on that one straight to the mars!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
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17,450
Location
Silicon Valley
Why is an E class cheaper huh? Well it is a commodity luxury car in mass production (compare to any Tesla it is in mass production), plus everyone who wanted one has one already, so the demand is lower. This is the same reason why an antique model T is more expensive today despite it being a bad car in today's standard compare to a Corolla or Civic.

Tesla still has some learning curve in terms of repair parts supply and design approach for reparability. I had friends who waited 2 months for simple body parts and many are not simple bolt on replacement but rather epoxy attached or weld on. The cost to repair are typically twice a traditional car. This hopefully will be better as Tesla gain experience in how to build cars correctly.

In the long terms though, electricity should be cheaper than gasoline so IMO most people expect some cost savings over the ownership of EV to justify the battery aging and high initial purchase price, or the high depreciation.
 
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1,282
I am quite optimistic for 2021, given the COVID vaccine, a gridlocked Congress, low interest rates, easy money, a supportive Fed, global fiscal stimulus, a recovering economy, pent up consumer demand, and a return to a normal world. My portfolio tends to be steady and balanced and I rarely trade, but I did move a slug of bond money into equities in late March when the market crashed. I was convinced that the crash factors, Covid and an oil price war, were temporary external factors and I decided to bet on a "V" shaped recovery. It worked out well.

My purchases were focused on value stocks with high dividends, mostly in energy. I picked up XOM with a 10% dividend, XLE with 9%, and AT&T with 7%. I also bought Delta at $21 and it is now up 100%. I still hold these stocks but am not buying more. I even took a gamble in March on Carnival Cruise Line (CCL), something I would not normally do, but bailed a week later when I learned they would not get a government bailout. Still I made 73% on that trade.

For my age , 70, I am currently overweight in stocks (63%) and very light in cash (5%), and will hold this position for at least half of 2021 if not longer. Total portfolio is up 9% YTD, which feels pretty good after the huge hit in the spring.
You‘re 70 and you’re 63% in stocks and only 5% cash? I like your guts, a lot of people would not do that, which tells me you’re playing with house money.

I’m just surprised with all your moves last year that you were only up 9%...simple index fund would have gotten you 14%. An index growth fund and healthcare would have squeezed you out 17%. And making moves back in March - something I did not do - would have put you in the 24% range.

I’m pretty worried about this year...unless another stimulus rolls through, I’m hearing 10%-20% loss. My dad is 69 and he is pretty moderate in stocks still, I feel like he really needs to go fully conservative this year and not take any chances. Then again, who knows?
 
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17,450
Location
Silicon Valley
The age based allocation between stocks, bonds, and cash really just means how much you need to keep for your own living expense for your expected life, and therefore your investment horizon.

If you have enough to live you can keep your investment horizon as indefinite and let your children or charity inherit your wealth. Or if you are just doing it for "fun" then you can see managing stock as your full time job, or just buy low cost diversified index fund.

One thing I do agree is you should never gamble with your living expense when you are old. You should keep that portion safe and then you can gamble all you want on your gamble money, in stock or whatever.
 
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