I sold all my stocks and bonds today.

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k1xv

k1xv

Joined
Apr 29, 2003
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Southern Vermont
I am retired, was self employed most of my career, and depend on my IRA for a good chunk of my retirement income. My IRA is self managed.

I have been investing for over 50 years, and have been through multiple market booms and busts. Nothing as frustrating as seeing all your gains go down the drain in a market bust. I believe in buying low and selling high. Most amateur retail investors do the opposite. They want to jump on the bandwagon of stocks flying upward, then they panic and sell low after the market crashes. And then they are so scared that they don't reinvest when prices are low.

The question i always ask myself in making investment decisions is, 'What is more likely, the market going up 10% from where it now is, or going down 10% from where it now is?

I was lucky to make some nice gains in 2024, but right now the market to me looks like Wiley Coyote discovering he is off the end of the cliff. I don't want to give all my gains back as the market slides. As it appears to be doing.

So I sold all my stocks and bonds today. Looking to be a vulture when the market drops early next year. As I think it will.
 
Any one that gives a macro prediction is a fool unless it's a very general one done out of safety more than greed. So I have no idea. All in all I wouldn't feel bad if the market goes up a bit more after selling. It has gone up a bunch and it has been a decent while since it has gone down so maybe more of a possibility it takes a break?. I'm still holding dia, qqq and spy and have bought more so I would need to see how much I can sell that's a year old or more to not get short term gains and only have one single stock investments being costco which is all long term since I didn't buy more and can take profit on but every time I've done that with prior holdings they continue to rise and feel that I've jumped off the boat. But I'm wondering if it would be worth jumping off the boat this time. Costco has gone up almost 68% since I bought it about 15 months ago. It's tempted me to do that more but I know I shouldn't and should diversify. I just trusted that costco would continue being good and didn't look deep into it. I'm sitting on mostly cash that just collects interest and I don't wanna buy more but also don't feel like selling because of what has happened before. Maybe I'll take all the long term profit i can and whatever is getting close to long term I'll just leave there and see what happens. Guess I'll start checking my history for the dates and quantities, market closes in a couple hours.
 
thastinger said:
If you believe the market is headed down then why not short some stuff?
Click to expand...
Depends. If you're unsure it can continue to go up since it has already gone up a lot then sell but stay out since it could just go up more and if you're shorting you're gonna be hurting. But being sure enough something is gonna go down and shorting it is a risky game. Warren Buffet said shorting works in the movies. Everyone wants to be the super smart contrarian that goes against everyone but you never hear about the losses only the gains. I don't feel like shorting and if I did I'd be on some terrible company and shares only no options since there's so much to what makes their prices move in comparison to shares and with an allocation of what i can afford to lose because unfortunately some reddit gamblers will pile onto trash like it's gold and run it. Though the insiders take advantage and dump at higher than reality prices and leave them broke but I don't want to risk surfing that wave, don't feel like getting downed. I'll just stay out of that casino rage. To thrive you just have to survive when the benchmark is everyone's running into landmines.
 
@k1xv A few years ago Schwab advised me to go conservative due to my age and portfolio value. So today I have like 2 separate portfolios:
  1. The "risky" stuff, like TSLA and LRCX that I manage.
  2. The conservative stuff that Schwab Wealth Advisory manages.
If I lost all the risky stuff I should be OK for the rest of my life. That's not gonna happen...
I believe you are smart to realize where you are in your investing career.
 
thastinger said:
If you believe the market is headed down then why not short some stuff?
Click to expand...
That's very dangerous. The stock market is probably too high right now but it may go even go higher, or at least stay too high for some time.

To make money by shorting you have to be right about both direction and timing. Wrong about direction and you'll go broke. Right about direction, but get the timing wrong (too early) and you'll go broke.

The old saying is "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." That's pretty accurate.
 
ecotourist said:
To make money by shorting you have to be right about both direction and timing. Wrong about direction and you'll go broke. Right about direction, but get the timing wrong (too early) and you'll go broke.
Click to expand...

The only difference between that and buying and holding is the interest you'll pay on the loan of the securities you sold (short). The theoretical ability to lose infinity is not real, because the margin call or forced-cover and liquidation or forfeiture of other account assets will occur long before that.
 
Steve Jobs, one tough SOB, on his deathbed said, among other things:
"Only now do I understand that once you accumulate enough money for the rest of your life, you have to pursue objectives that are not related to wealth."

Not a perfect analogy, but if you are lucky enough to have enough, don't sweat the small stuff. Best of luck to you and please spread some of your investment wisdom to your family and friends, before it is too late for them.
 
Don’t blame you. Not a bad idea to lock in your gains, at your age and status. You can always join back in, later. Or just swim in your cash like Scrooge McDuck.

Me, my only change for the upcoming year is to cut my savings rate. Rocky road ahead, kid headed to college, so increasing cash seems wise. 20 years to retirement so no reason for me to reduce risk just yet. I figure, there is a downturn ahead, then after that recovery I will diversify.
 
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