stock market

Messages
48
Location
nebraska
Regarding timing the market...
Let's just say I have a little experience in computer programming, statistics, forecasting and data modeling. Predictive analytics is my job.
I've had opportunity to work with VERY expensive data systems (many millions of dollars).
These systems are amazing, powerful. Programmers make $150K to $250K and up. Plus stock...
These systems and their uber programmers and analysts fail at timing the market.
If you think you can, well...
I remember the elderly Beardtown ladies from a decade or so ago who doubled up on the market most years. They had some investment books and they were big investers in consumer staples. type stocks and funds. ....food, medicine , building materials, paper, clothing toiletry items, soap shampoo toothpaste. just stuff that millions of people use every day. My daughter was in an investment club in her HS a few years back and the business teacher had them do an experiment where they threw darts at a newspaper page of stocks and they tracked those stocks for the school year and it out did the market by a pretty wide margin. I figure a low-cost, diverse index fund will be the best option over time. A few people may be able to squeeze out a slightly better return picking single stocks, but if the wall street pros who do it full time can't do it consistently, most of us probably can't either.
 
Messages
10,759
Location
MA
I remember the elderly Beardtown ladies from a decade or so ago who doubled up on the market most years. They had some investment books and they were big investers in consumer staples. type stocks and funds. ....food, medicine , building materials, paper, clothing toiletry items, soap shampoo toothpaste. just stuff that millions of people use every day. My daughter was in an investment club in her HS a few years back and the business teacher had them do an experiment where they threw darts at a newspaper page of stocks and they tracked those stocks for the school year and it out did the market by a pretty wide margin. I figure a low-cost, diverse index fund will be the best option over time. A few people may be able to squeeze out a slightly better return picking single stocks, but if the wall street pros who do it full time can't do it consistently, most of us probably can't either.
The thing is that people could probably pick out some good stocks, but they also get some bad ones too. But they only come here to talk about the good ones they got and don't mention the bad ones so you get some distortion of how they're really doing.

I remember meeting a guy once at a party that had 100 bitcoins. He was worth almost 2 million at one point til it had come down. I think at the time I was talking to him it was around 10k so he had lost a million. Then it had dropped to about 3k and I thought it was all over for him at the time, must be rough going from 2 million to 300k. But if you had dropped 100k into it at the time you'd have over a million now. No one really knows where it's going. Don't know if that guy held on or not.
 
Messages
17,980
Location
NH
I meant to check on my 401k contribution; I am getting close to finally maxing it out. That leaves Roth's to start in on next. Toying with taking some of our savings and maxing out a Roth for 2020. Then in future years do a Roth when I feel like I had a good year. Play off the fact that a Roth can have the principle pulled at any time--treat it as a bit of an emergency fund, or to say, not keep all of my emergency fund in liquid cash. Just not sure I have enough in my budget to max out both at this time, though.

[Yes I know, I should first load my 401k with what it takes to get employer match, then max out Roth(s), then come back to the 401k. At the moment I like the tax savings. Plus I'm concerned that I'd just treat the Roth like a savings account.]
 
Messages
832
Location
FL
Quote:
The thing is that people could probably pick out some good stocks, but they also get some bad ones too. But they only come here to talk about the good ones they got and don't mention the bad ones so you get some distortion of how they're really doing.




Thats why the low cost Fidelity mutual fund you keep recommending is best for 95% of all people.

In the Dot Com bubble I lost about $55K. I contracted the ‘Doc Com bug‘ and thought it was going to keep running up and I got tunnel vision. True story and I learned my lesson to take profits. I deserved 100% by being greedy and listening to the CEOs on Mad Money type of TV shows.

🤬😳🤢🤕

.
 
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Messages
17,448
Location
Silicon Valley
I think all the economic theories only work if 1) nobody print money with no consequences, 2) you have infinite amount of money you can borrow to buy and infinite amount of money so you don't run into financial struggle when your leverage go south, 3) You have a real free market where international turbulence will not happen due to politics and military actions, so everything is market driven.

Having said that, I think we should expect inflation to keep happening at an accelerated pace, and all assets will be over priced, and income will never catch up to inflation. This means we won't be able to just rest on dividends to match inflation or stock market growth.

I don't know, it seems like the only sure thing we can count on is to buy homes for children and let them not worry about future expense. That seems to be the only sure thing you can walk away with a foreclosure incase a market crash, yet you can still keep the early investment / savings in living expense in the future.
 
Messages
5,060
Location
South Carolina
Yeah, including this lie.

Yeah, not to get political, but in terms of GDP, it's been higher, WWII. Came out of it after the 50's. It's getting up there though.


Funny how every generation thinks the current one is going to he** in a handbasket. I suppose one day that will actually happen as governments do eventually fall.
As of right now my source says we are almost at 130% far higher then WWII and it’s still going up quickly, there seems to be no will to address it
https://www.usdebtclock.org/
 
Messages
5,342
Location
Southeast Texas
I figure a low-cost, diverse index fund will be the best option over time. A few people may be able to squeeze out a slightly better return picking single stocks, but if the wall street pros who do it full time can't do it consistently, most of us probably can't either.
You are correct about that. Most can't pick stocks to beat the market index, but the pros sure can tilt the portfolio in and out of sectors and styles, blend in bond components, construct tax efficiencies, plan for withdrawals, and compose an overall strategy for finacial management.

Its more than just trying to pick stocks to beat the market. Fidelity has done a great job for me with their Portfolio Advisory service.
 
Messages
832
Location
FL
What stocks, ETFs or mutual funds are BITOG buying in anticipation of new folks in Washington ?

EV and renewable energy & technologies are what I’m putting some money in.

What’s your plan besides the core holding of the basic S&P 500 ?

.
 
Messages
1,450
Location
Las Vegas
Dave, I would be very careful with that if I were you. There is going to be a lot of government money thrown into sweetheart deals and non-viable companies. For every Tesla there are going to be a hundred Solyndras.
My ratio may be off. Probably more like a thousand Solyndras.
 
Messages
17,448
Location
Silicon Valley
I don't know what to invest in, but I think I have seen a lot of news about SPAC type of IPO lately and to me that seems like a sure fire way to brew up a new bubble to be popped. Maybe we are too early as the QE will likely last till everyone is back in business and eviction / foreclosure is finally no longer a concern, and QE will inflate everything and therefore deflate their number into irrelevant.

I would probably stay with some safe bet and avoid big loss, instead of looking for massive gain.
 
Messages
832
Location
FL
QE and more stimulus is headed our way.

Not getting political, but this is a strategy if you know Trillions more will be pumped in....
 
Messages
1,511
Location
TX
What stocks, ETFs or mutual funds are BITOG buying in anticipation of new folks in Washington ?

EV and renewable energy & technologies are what I’m putting some money in.

What’s your plan besides the core holding of the basic S&P 500 ?

.
I've gotten some ARK ETF (arkk and more of ARKG). ARKK is slowly rebalancing and getting rid of tesla as it was becoming too heavy. ARKG is gonna have some heavy movement in 2021 i think. Another great ETF is ICLN, should be a great mover as well. I'm expecting a market pullback next week (or before the inauguration) and will be loading on LEAPS for mentioned above ETF.
 
Messages
1,511
Location
TX
Funny that you mentioned ARKK.

Before I started to buy Tesla stock, I had ARKK as one of my growth ETFs.
i'd love to know how much steam tesla has left on this run. it's quite overbought and looks like it's due for correction...same as BTC. what goes up has to go down lol. yall get the cash ready!!!!
 
Messages
10,759
Location
MA
i'd love to know how much steam tesla has left on this run. it's quite overbought and looks like it's due for correction...same as BTC. what goes up has to go down lol. yall get the cash ready!!!!
It's clear the fundamentals for Tesla doesn't make sense. But of course it's not clear it has to come down if it keeps getting propped up. I thought it was ready to come down last year, but it's a good thing I'm not a short seller as they got really burned. It's possible it might have a little more legs and instead of coming down, it could just go sideways for a while. Microsoft was like that at one point, went up and didn't really move much for 10 years.
 
Messages
47,796
Location
Everson WA - Pacific NW USA
What stocks, ETFs or mutual funds are BITOG buying in anticipation of new folks in Washington ?

EV and renewable energy & technologies are what I’m putting some money in.

What’s your plan besides the core holding of the basic S&P 500 ?

.
Good way to get burned, IMHO. Investing because of such a thing is tougher than it may appear. For the reasons mentioned below and most things P and stock picking, you can never get a feel how much is actually already baked in. If you have a large enough portfolio and want to take a flyer on a few, well have at it, but...............

Pick good money making companies with solid earnings and good management. If that is tough, pick a low cost well managed fund(s) OR index fund(s) to match your risk tolerance and go out and mow the lawn, or change the oil.
 
Messages
5,614
Location
NJ
If you want to gamble, i like the stocks that stand to gain the most once the covid19 is under control. Cruise lines, airlines, casinos, etc
 
Messages
832
Location
FL
Quote:
If you have a large enough portfolio and want to take a flyer on a few, well have at it, but...............



10% of my portfolio is dedicated to higher risk. If it goes to zero then I bet wrong and won’t loose any sleep over it.
 
Messages
10,759
Location
MA
Quote:
If you have a large enough portfolio and want to take a flyer on a few, well have at it, but...............



10% of my portfolio is dedicated to higher risk. If it goes to zero then I bet wrong and won’t loose any sleep over it.

Don't know what part of mine is, but probably at least 1.7% as that's what Tesla represents in the S&P 500.

For a wild ride, try Bitcoin, I think it was over 41k and now down to 38k, it was under 20k just a month ago.
 
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