Is 'most wear at startup' a myth?

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Basically it all boils down to your intimacy with the machine. It usually starts with a "hmm..something is 'unright'." ..and you may not have a clue on how to determine what the 'unrightness' is

There should be a book called 'Gary Allen and the Art of Car Maintenance.' I'm pretty much in tune with my car and can almost always tell in advance, sometimes for months, that something is going down the creek. That said, there are spontaneous failures that do not announce themselves. Those tend to happen more often with electronic than mechanical components. That's why critical electronic components should, and often do, include redundancy (think limp mode in a car's ECU).
 
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