Hurricane Idalia - landfall in Florida

[alarmguy]

It's a strong storm but small, Hurricane force winds extend roughly 25 miles and I think that is at flight level readings. Also this is barely, if at all a CAT 3.
Certainly feel bad for those taking a direct hit but I think many others are going to luck out because this hurricane is moving so fast at almost 20 miles an hour. Plus the media not representing that at most this is a weak CAT 3. In reality I think they will be hard pressed to record a land based CAT 3 or anything near it.

So fast that its going to shoot through Florida to the Georgia and South Carolina coast today and tonight not leaving enough time for it to down grade to a tropical storm and Hurricane Warnings have been posted for the Georgia Coast and lower SC coast.
Hurricane watch for the middle to lower upper SC coast.

Needless to say, depending on track we in the southeastern NC coast might see a sort of strong Tropical Storm but even then, do to the increase in forward speed, initial tracking was pretty inaccurate for the SC/NC coast, its now expected to swing out to see and maybe (or maybe not) even get a tropical storm force winds here in NC>

 

[I<3oil]

Barely at all a Cat 3? lol

Cat 3 goes from 111-129mph and it had 125mph winds with landfall.

Hurricane Idalia has been downgraded to a Category 3 storm, with maximum sustained winds near 125 mph, with higher gusts.

 

[DuckRyder]

And flooding into tampa...

 

[Astro14]

Tampa avoided the worst.

The bend is getting 12+ feet of surge. That’s devastating. There will be widespread losses.

If that level of surge hit a major population center, the losses would be in the billions.

 

[alarmguy]

175851[/ATTACH]

 

[alarmguy]

Tampa avoided the worst.

The bend is getting 12+ feet of surge. That’s devastating. There will be widespread losses.

If that level of surge hit a major population center, the losses would be in the billions.

View attachment 175850

Yes, bad time for a storm. Tides are already high due to the full moon. (moon tides)
We do need to remember this chart is a forecast, we dont know the true numbers. Storm moved so quick I would question the forecasted surges for now anyway, until documented.

Living on the coast most of my life, like any forecast, sometimes it's correct and an equal amount it is not. One thing for sure, there will be flooding but would question 12+ feet for sure.

This was at 8AM from NHC
Storm Surge of 6.5 feet
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Idalia was located by
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Idalia was located by
Tallahassee radar near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 83.5 West.
Idalia is moving toward the north-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h). A
north-northeastward motion is expected through the morning, with
Idalia's center forecast to move into southern Georgia later today.
Idalia is forecast to turn toward the northeast and east-northeast,
moving near or along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and
North Carolina late today and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated near 120 mph (195 km/h) with
higher gusts. Idalia is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although Idalia will weaken
further now that the center is inland, it is likely to still be a
hurricane while moving across southern Georgia, and near the coast
of Georgia or southern South Carolina late today. Idalia is forecast
to be a tropical storm while moving near the coasts of northeastern
South Carolina and North Carolina tonight and on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.05 inches) based on
aircraft data.

Water levels along the coast of the Florida Big Bend continue to
rise rapidly. A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge at Cedar
Key, Florida, recently reported a water level of 6.2 feet above
mean higher high water, which is an approximation of inundation in
that area.

 

[Zee09]

After this fiasco will Florida even have homeowners' insurance anymore.

 

[DuckRyder]

Tampa avoided the worst.

Yes they did, but high tide is not until 3pm and gulf blvd out by the beaches is apparently already underwater according to friends that live there. The bridge was underwater at about 4am, again according to my friends who live there.

 

[Astro14]

Yes, bad time for a storm. Tides are already high due to the full moon. (moon tides)
We do need to remember this chart is a forecast, we dont know the true numbers. Storm moved so quick I would question the forecasted surges for now anyway, until documented.

Living on the coast most of my life, like any forecast, sometimes it's correct and an equal amount it is not. One thing for sure, there will be flooding but would question 12+ feet for sure.

Been on the coast for many decades. This photo is 200 feet from our house. The kayak is mine.

12 feet of surge (especially coupled with a high tide) would put the water about 3 feet into our first floor.

Because of the movement of the water, the house likely wouldn’t survive. The NOAA site from which I screen grabbed the surge prediction has been remarkably accurate for us. We are quite close to the water - that’s the inland waterway in the photo, and we’re less that half a mile from the Chesapeake Bay.

 

[alarmguy]

Been on the coast for many decades. This photo is 200 feet from our house. The kayak is mine.

View attachment 175852

12 feet of surge (especially coupled with a high tide) would put the water about 3 feet into our first floor.

Because of the movement of the water, the house likely wouldn’t survive. The NOAA site from which I screen grabbed the surge prediction has been remarkably accurate for us. We are quite close to the water - that’s the inland waterway in the photo, and we’re less that half a mile from the Chesapeake Bay.

Nice photo

 

[demarpaint]

After this fiasco will Florida even have homeowners' insurance anymore.

That's exactly what I was thinking. Rates went through the roof after the storm last year, this storm will only raise them even higher, or have insurance companies writing policies there pull out. In any event nothing good is coming from this for property owners in Florida.

 

[alarmguy]

Yes they did, but high tide is not until 3pm and gulf blvd out by the beaches is apparently already underwater according to friends that live there. The bridge was underwater at about 4am, again according to my friends who live there.

As Astro may know, if it's similar to Long Island.
Even though high tide maybe at 3PM with a fast moving storm already out of the area and high tide not until 3PM at worst, if anything, the water will not recede or recede as much, it certainly is not going to get any deeper. Person in the car had to be "rescued" and you can see green grass a few feet away.

Im surprised Tampa got this but it's typical for them. What drives me crazy, listen to the announcer leading the reporter and also his statement using the words SIXTEEN FEET. I wish he would get back on the air now and report the actual surge. (never happen) I would be surprised to see 8 feet. Which is not to feel bad for those people.

Storm surge from Hurricane Idalia impacts downtown Tampa

As Hurricane Idalia impacts Florida, NBC News' Marissa Parra reports from downtown Tampa where the storm surge has flooded roads and stranded vehicles.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[PimTac]

As Astro may know, if it's similar to Long Island.
Even though high tide maybe at 3PM with a fast moving storm already out of the area and high tide not until 3PM at worst, if anything, the water will not recede or recede as much, it certainly is not going to get any deeper. Person in the car had to be "rescued" and you can see green grass a few feet away.

Im surprised Tampa got this but it's typical for them. What drives me crazy, listen to the announcer leading the reporter and also his statement using the words SIXTEEN FEET. I wish he would get back on the air now and report the actual surge. (never happen) I would be surprised to see 8 feet. Which is not to feel bad for those people.

Storm surge from Hurricane Idalia impacts downtown Tampa

As Hurricane Idalia impacts Florida, NBC News' Marissa Parra reports from downtown Tampa where the storm surge has flooded roads and stranded vehicles.

www.nbcnews.com

8 feet becomes 16 feet becomes 20 feet.

 

[Lubener]

It's a strong storm but small, Hurricane force winds extend roughly 25 miles and I think that is at flight level readings. Also this is barely, if at all a CAT 3.
Certainly feel bad for those taking a direct hit but I think many others are going to luck out because this hurricane is moving so fast at almost 20 miles an hour. Plus the media not representing that at most this is a weak CAT 3. In reality I think they will be hard pressed to record a land based CAT 3 or anything near it.

So fast that its going to shoot through Florida to the Georgia and South Carolina coast today and tonight not leaving enough time for it to down grade to a tropical storm and Hurricane Warnings have been posted for the Georgia Coast and lower SC coast.
Hurricane watch for the middle to lower upper SC coast.

Needless to say, depending on track we in the southeastern NC coast might see a sort of strong Tropical Storm but even then, do to the increase in forward speed, initial tracking was pretty inaccurate for the SC/NC coast, its now expected to swing out to see and maybe (or maybe not) even get a tropical storm force winds here in NC>

The storm had already made landfall before you posted. It was upgraded briefly to cat 4 just before landfall a few hours ago..

 

[alarmguy]

After this fiasco will Florida even have homeowners' insurance anymore.

Very glad we didnt buy in Florida last year. I stay in contact with the community we almost bought in, we came so close I still have the contracts in my inbox that we never signed.
Glad for our choice on the NC coast, love it here, though we will most likely get tropical winds tonight, even that is questionable.

Anyway, people in that Florida community besides insurance cost (really not cheap here in NC either but way better) just got whacked with a 15 to 20% school tax increase and HOA/CCD fees/ and the amenity center that was supposed to be completed this year still have not broke ground (but may start soon)(

 

[Zee09]

That's exactly what I was thinking. Rates went through the roof after the storm last year, this storm will only raise them even higher, or have insurance companies writing policies there pull out. In any event nothing good is coming from this for property owners in Florida.

The more I'm ready to go, the more news I get and staying in MD. but be the best choice.
Ocala never gets hit-I looked at that area secondly but this morning they say Marion County will get bombed.
If that's the case nowhere is safe in Florida.

 

[JohnnyG]

My BIL lives in White Springs Fl. They lost power this morning. No estimates when it will come back. Wind is still bad @ 11:00 AM there.
So far the rest of the property is holding its own. Looks like power took down cell towers too, no texts lately.

 

[demarpaint]

The more I'm ready to go, the more news I get and staying in MD. but be the best choice.
Ocala never gets hit-I looked at that area second but this morning they say Marion County will get bombed.
If that's the case nowhere is safe in Florida.

I hear ya. I saw a weather map model showing the possibility of the storm circling and hitting the east coast of Florida next. Not good!!

 

[JohnnyG]

The more I'm ready to go, the more news I get and staying in MD. but be the best choice.
Ocala never gets hit-I looked at that area secondly but this morning they say Marion County will get bombed.
If that's the case nowhere is safe in Florida.

Last storm to hit the White Springs area was in the 50's and 1856 prior to that!

 

[JohnnyG]

I hear ya. I saw a weather map model showing the possibility of the storm circling and hitting the east coast of Florida next. Not good!!

That track has changed.