Hurricane Otis intensity forecast… way, way way off.

[bbhero]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 14.2N 98.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 15.0N 99.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 16.1N 99.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 17.1N 100.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
48H 26/0600Z 17.9N 100.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 26/1800Z 18.6N 101.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED


The above is the forecast discussion and intensity forecast for Hurricane Otis at 0400 am yesterday am.

Forecasted to be a measly 85 to maybe 90 mph hurricane at landfall approaching Acapulco.

Well now it is expected to be at 165 mph at landfall.

This… Is why I keep saying that the intensity forecasting is by FAR, FAR the hardest part of hurricane prediction now.

Imagine… A storm forecasted at 4 am to be a 85 mph hurricane heading towards say Tampa and St Petersburg Florida… Then just 16 hours later it is a category 4 on the way to being a cat 5 at landfall…

That nightmare scenario … Is what could happen at some point. This is what makes the people at the NHC wake up in a cold sweat at night.


This is the forecast discussion and intensity forecast at 700 pm CDT earlier Tuesday evening 15 hours after that 0400 am forecast discussion and intensity forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0000Z 15.7N 99.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 16.3N 100.0W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 17.5N 100.8W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
36H 26/0600Z 18.1N 101.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 26/1800Z 18.4N 102.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED


This is the latest forecast discussion and intensity forecast at 1000 pm CDT..

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 16.1N 99.7W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 17.3N 100.1W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND
24H 26/0000Z 18.0N 100.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

 

[bbhero]

The following forecast discussion at 0400 CDT yesterday indicates that the forecast models were obviously supporting a low end hurricane at landfall. Obviously the “ high end” of the intensity forecast models at this time was for this storm to be a category 1 hurricane at landfall.

Interestingly the SHIPS model indicated a 1 in 4 chance of rapid intensification of this storm.


Some times the long shot dark horse is the winner.

This is that forecast and intensity forecast discussion below.

“ These conditions should allow for continued strengthening as
Otis approaches the southern coast of Mexico. The latest NHC
intensity forecast calls for Otis to become a hurricane today, and
it shows additional strengthening before Otis reaches southern
Mexico in a day or so. By 36 hours, Otis is forecast to be inland,
and rapid weakening should occur as the cyclone moves over
mountainous terrain. The NHC intensity forecast is at the high end
of the guidance in best agreement with the HWRF and HAFS-B models.
The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index now shows about a 1 in 4
chance of rapid strengthening during the next 24 hours, which
supports being on the higher side of the guidance.”

 

[MolaKule]

Any meteorological or climate modeling is a study in probabilities.

Do we actually have all of the atmospheric physics and atmospheric chemistry information (input data) we need to accurately model either one? I say no.

 

[bbhero]

Any meteorological or climate modeling is a study in probabilities.

Do we actually have all of the atmospheric physics and atmospheric chemistry information (input data) we need to accurately model either one? I say no.

Ohh I absolutely agree Molakule.

Especially when the atmosphere is so volatile and changes extremely rapidly given the right environmental conditions.

 

[Oro_O]

Wow - this indeed blew up so rapidly, as you described.

Early reports are bad. Plus, the inland mountains are going to drain more moisture out of it rapidly and create floods and mudslides. This is looking like a monumental disaster that no one expected.

Acapulco now:

 

[thastinger]

You can walk across the Gulf of Mexico on the tops of weather bouys and oil rigs, lots more data points to plug into the predictions.

 

[alarmguy]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 14.2N 98.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 15.0N 99.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 16.1N 99.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 17.1N 100.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
48H 26/0600Z 17.9N 100.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 26/1800Z 18.6N 101.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED


The above is the forecast discussion and intensity forecast for Hurricane Otis at 0400 am yesterday am.

Forecasted to be a measly 85 to maybe 90 mph hurricane at landfall approaching Acapulco.

Well now it is expected to be at 165 mph at landfall.

This… Is why I keep saying that the intensity forecasting is by FAR, FAR the hardest part of hurricane prediction now.

Imagine… A storm forecasted at 4 am to be a 85 mph hurricane heading towards say Tampa and St Petersburg Florida… Then just 16 hours later it is a category 4 on the way to being a cat 5 at landfall…

That nightmare scenario … Is what could happen at some point. This is what makes the people at the NHC wake up in a cold sweat at night.


This is the forecast discussion and intensity forecast at 700 pm CDT earlier Tuesday evening 15 hours after that 0400 am forecast discussion and intensity forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0000Z 15.7N 99.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 16.3N 100.0W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 17.5N 100.8W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
36H 26/0600Z 18.1N 101.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 26/1800Z 18.4N 102.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED


This is the latest forecast discussion and intensity forecast at 1000 pm CDT..

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 16.1N 99.7W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 17.3N 100.1W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND
24H 26/0000Z 18.0N 100.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

The forecast was changed to a mentioned Possible CAT 5 at some point on Tuesday 10/24 as best I can remember.
I wish I knew what time (Morning Afternoon or Evening) and device I was looking at it and the source, trying to check my history now, I remember clearly because I didnt even know it was out there and mentioned to my wife that they are looking at a Cat 5 which is off the coast of Mexico.

Edit: Cant find the time, victim of myself as I routinely delete cookies and history.

Today Wed its already over land and dying. Actually by 1pm EST it will a Tropical Storm.
They Estimated it may had made landfall at 145 which is the extreme end of an estimate. It certainly was a quick turn of events and almost dying as fast as it grew. Small wind field too.

 

[Oro_O]

You can walk across the Gulf of Mexico on the tops of weather bouys and oil rigs, lots more data points to plug into the predictions.

This came out of the Eastern Pacific, (hit Acapulco). Much more difficult.

 

[bbhero]

The forecast was changed to a mentioned Possible CAT 5 at some point on Tuesday 10/24 as best I can remember.
I wish I knew what time (Morning Afternoon or Evening) and device I was looking at it and the source, trying to check my history now, I remember clearly because I didnt even know it was out there and mentioned to my wife that they are looking at a Cat 5 which is off the coast of Mexico.

Edit: Cant find the time, victim of myself as I routinely delete cookies and history.

Today Wed its already over land and dying. Actually by 1pm EST it will a Tropical Storm.
They Estimated it may had made landfall at 145 which is the extreme end of an estimate. It certainly was a quick turn of events and almost dying as fast as it grew. Small wind field too.
View attachment 185084

I actually saw that article you are mentioning here….

It was not a NHC product.

I saw it on another website…

I didn’t click on it because I was getting tired. That and the title to that page seemed highly speculative.

I have a possible idea who was the meteorologist was behind that. If it was who I think it may well be.. . I do think he is actually quite good more often than not.

 

[bbhero]

The forecast was changed to a mentioned Possible CAT 5 at some point on Tuesday 10/24 as best I can remember.
I wish I knew what time (Morning Afternoon or Evening) and device I was looking at it and the source, trying to check my history now, I remember clearly because I didnt even know it was out there and mentioned to my wife that they are looking at a Cat 5 which is off the coast of Mexico.

Edit: Cant find the time, victim of myself as I routinely delete cookies and history.

Today Wed its already over land and dying. Actually by 1pm EST it will a Tropical Storm.
They Estimated it may had made landfall at 145 which is the extreme end of an estimate. It certainly was a quick turn of events and almost dying as fast as it grew. Small wind field too.
View attachment 185084

I saw the actual NHC report at the exact time of landfall… 145 Knots…. Aka 165 mph.

The following is from the NHC ….

Satellite data indicated that Otis continued to strengthen to near
the time of landfall in southern Mexico. Subjective Dvorak data
T-numbers were around T7.0 (140 kt) around 04-05Z while raw
objective ADT numbers were in the T7.2 to T7.6 range between about
01-05Z. Based on that data, Otis is estimated to have made landfall
around 0625 UTC as a category 5 hurricane with maximum winds of 145
kt.

It was 165 mph… pressure at 923 mB…


I believe that to be right…. It was strengthening up until landfall.

 

[alarmguy]

I actually saw that article you are mentioning here….

It was not a NHC product.

I saw it on another website…

I didn’t click on it because I was getting tired. That and the title to that page seemed highly speculative.

I have a possible idea who was the meteorologist was behind that. If it was who I think it may well be.. . I do think he is actually quite good more often than not.

Yeah, I was grabbing a straws on where I saw it and because I erased my history I couldn’t find out.
When I’m intentionally checking, whether I go to NOAA, but I cannot say for sure if it was a headline that I saw. I think it might’ve been the headline.

 

[bbhero]

Specialist Bryan Norcross. "Not one fancy, modern computer model showed the off-the-charts rapid intensification."

They certainly did not… GFS or Euro or HRWF etc etc…

This hurricane will be a topic of research work for a long while to come.

Out of the above quoted article I read Norcross theories why this storm happened the way it did.

And what he states make great sense to me.

1) this storm being so small and compact circulation wise helped it greatly in getting stronger much faster than normal or expected. Aka like Hurricane Wilma in 2005.

2) Upstream jetstream dipped close enough yet far enough away from the hurricane’s center where it assisted the storm in getting much stronger faster. Aka Like Hurricane Micheal in 2018… Where that jetstream pattern helps evacuate air from the top of the storm more effectively and efficiently which greatly helps in rapid intensification.

3) The obvious near 30 degree Celsius water beneath the storm which obviously was warm at depth too.

My own ideas to forecast a hurricane like this in the future if it were to be along the Gulf coast or Florida east coast or even Georgia coast is this…

If a developing tropical storm demonstrates a very tight circulation pattern and that pattern is very small in size… Have the Hurricane Hunter aircraft go to that developing tropical cyclone with 4 back to back to back to back trips across the storm from differing angles of approach by each of the 4 straight flights taken to investigate it.

The more data collected by those 4 straight consecutive flights can possibly give enough data to indicate that the storm has greater potential for a rapidly deepening storm. Its vorticity structures in all 4 quadrants being much further and deeply analyzed from several differing directions may well be key in forecasting its potential for extremely rapid intensification.

I will compare this to a phenomenon that happened with the EF-5 tornado that hit Joplin…

And you can go find this radar loop yourself. It’s still out there.

In that circumstance a strong storm was already approaching Joplin from the west and southwest. Well another strong storm popped up southeast of those storms. Then it rapidly moved northward and joined that strong storm approaching Joplin. And as soon as that storm joins up with the other very strong thunderstorm.. That Joplin tornado happens… And it literally was a EF-3 about as soon as it hits the ground within 1 minute. The video of that confirms that. It becomes a EF4 very quickly after that… Then shortly after that a EF-5.

This very, very rare extreme rapid intensification of that tornado was caused by that other storm combining with the other strong storm.

There was an atmospheric setup that caused an extreme rapid increase in helicity in the lowest levels, mid levels and upper levels of the atmosphere that day. Which led to a devastating and extremely dangerous tornado that hit Joplin.

Like a spinning top using your fingers on a hard countertop .. Once you get it spinning right … It becomes easier and easier to make it go faster and faster with your fingers.

This Hurricane Otis did essentially the same exact things as that Joplin tornado did.

 

[ArrestMeRedZ]

I think we might be missing the big picture here. As a country, the USA has assets that focus on threats to that country. Hurricane hunters, sensors, satellites, etc. are going to provide detailed input and analysis on storms that will effect the Gulf, the East Coast and to a lesser degree, Hawaii.
I suspect less resources (sensors and models) are used for Eastern Pacific storms that will impact Mexico. There will be a much bigger margin of error in that region.
Theory only, I'm not a meteorologist, nor do I play one on TV.

 

[bbhero]

I think we might be missing the big picture here. As a country, the USA has assets that focus on threats to that country. Hurricane hunters, sensors, satellites, etc. are going to provide detailed input and analysis on storms that will effect the Gulf, the East Coast and to a lesser degree, Hawaii.
I suspect less resources (sensors and models) are used for Eastern Pacific storms that will impact Mexico. There will be a much bigger margin of error in that region.
Theory only, I'm not a meteorologist, nor do I play one on TV.

But… THEY predict the tropics for the East PAC too…..

In circumstances like this one….

It may well be exceptionally necessary to DEPLOY those assets in a much, much bigger and focused way…

The question is when to do that ?

Certainly not needed every time.

But what observations and patterns to look for to look for and when to up the use of planes ?

That’s the one of the main points here….

And the fact all the most sophisticated forecast models … COMPLETELY missed what happened in this storm.

This by the way is NOT the first time the models have under performed in forecasting hurricanes going through rapid strengthening. Far from it in fact. It has been known for 2 plus decades in fact.

Missing information… Not enough data from the atmosphere… yes. I agree.

Surface measurements are not all that is required. Far, far from it in fact.

You need measurements at low level, mid level and upper level. This is what’s really, really needed. Those measurements are truly what is needed for more accurate predictions.

Thus the need for more Hurricane Hunter flights….

That may be one big part of the missing key to accurately forecasting extremely rapidly deepening tropical systems.