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Still agree its too soon to tell, but this was last years Ian track vs the models prediction, as that prediction varied over time. The different blue lines represent official predicted tracks starting 120 hours out.
Need advice for a trip to Sarasota (right on time for a hurricane)
- Thread starter Owen Lucas
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The Latest Cancun radar loop, and the 88f+ 'rocketfuel' comment in the YCC site, and Ian's hard right turn have me a bit more excited and anxious than this time yesterday.
yaleclimateconnections.org
Tropical Storm Idalia soon to enter Gulf and intensify » Yale Climate Connections
The tropical storm is predicted to make landfall on the Gulf Coast of Florida as a hurricane by early Wednesday.
yaleclimateconnections.org
This storm came right through my area. Mt. Dora. Before storm hit, got my generator set up. Laid extensions to refrigerator, one window a/c and a fan to help when power went out. MIRACLE. Power did not go out. MIRACLE. Slight soffit damage.
BTW. Mt. Dora, elevation 180 ft, is where people evacuate to, NOT evacuate from.
Never can be too careful but enjoy yourself and watch the updates. A lot of common sense helps. Most of these coastal hotels are built to withstand hurricane force winds as are most new homes (mine with mandatory impact windows). I’ve lived in Florida my whole life, I stay prepared but don’t really worry anymore about a hurricane.
Don’t go swimming in it, don’t drive in it. Don't think you can drive through flooded streets (deeper than you think).
When I was in a more rural area the biggest threat was falling limbs and trees which took out power lines and people. The ground gets very saturated and the wind blows them right over.
Worse comes to worse go east. Lots of neat spots. Kennedy Space center, go further south there’s a hidden gem, the navy seal museum in Fort Pierce. Beautiful beach ? Juno beach, Melbourne.
Don’t go swimming in it, don’t drive in it. Don't think you can drive through flooded streets (deeper than you think).
When I was in a more rural area the biggest threat was falling limbs and trees which took out power lines and people. The ground gets very saturated and the wind blows them right over.
Worse comes to worse go east. Lots of neat spots. Kennedy Space center, go further south there’s a hidden gem, the navy seal museum in Fort Pierce. Beautiful beach ? Juno beach, Melbourne.
Now I’m gettingg concerned. Now the projected center of track is shifting south. At the moment, it looks like landfall west of Ocala.
If the projected track goes any further south. I’ll have ro break out the generator.
If the projected track goes any further south. I’ll have ro break out the generator.
Owen Lucas
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We arrived in Brandeton a few hours ago and are in Siesta Key now. The “hotel” is a 1 floor bungalow 300ft away from the beach. It was raining at the airport but then skies cleared out. Went to the beach to see the sunset, nice pink skies and calm water so far.
We are thinking of heading to Miami Tuesday morning. Seems less dangerous yet doable with a 3.5 hr drive. Our rental was upgraded to a Hyundai Santa Fe.
We truely appreciate the expert meteorological advice from everyone!
We are thinking of heading to Miami Tuesday morning. Seems less dangerous yet doable with a 3.5 hr drive. Our rental was upgraded to a Hyundai Santa Fe.
We truely appreciate the expert meteorological advice from everyone!
After what Ft. Meyers and the surrounding cities went through last year with Ian, the last thing they need is a repeat.
Yes, thank you. The Longboat Key area still hasn't recovered 100% and we are about 60 miles north of where it made landfall between Sanibel and Boca. It will be another year or so before Boca is in better shape and that will be a record for recovery, but there's a few reasons why Boca Grande will be in great shape quickly....
All I will say now is… buckle up boys and girls…
It’s gonna be a wild and bumpy ride for the western coast of Florida…
Remember… they had this being a 75 mph storm at landfall just 36 hours ago… Now it’s at 115 mph… And the highest model forecast was one at 36 hours ago was at 130 mph. The vast majority of the models were well lower than that by a large margin.. .
It’s gonna be a wild and bumpy ride for the western coast of Florida…
Remember… they had this being a 75 mph storm at landfall just 36 hours ago… Now it’s at 115 mph… And the highest model forecast was one at 36 hours ago was at 130 mph. The vast majority of the models were well lower than that by a large margin.. .
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A bungalow?
It would be prudent to prepare and I also need to acknowledge I miss read your OP.
I thought you were heading to Panama City and what my previous posts were about.
Though you can still see Panama City as of this morning isn’t threatened.
Your in a far worse place as the storm track narrows in that area of the coast even if way to soon to know I wouldn’t be thrilled in a bungalow
Being on vacation it’s a tough call to figure out were to go and still maximize your vacation.
Now understanding your situation I would be concerned for sure. More so in a one story bungalow. Large hotel are safe but many may force you to leave ahead of time.
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Charley went right over my parents home and mine years ago and wasn't fun. I don't think we had power for 8 days, thank God we were able to get a generator. Ran a cord to the fridge, window AC and ran another cord to the neighbors to help them. Only good thing about it was it hit during the day and you could see. I always hated the ones coming threw at night where you couldn't see anything but could hear it, except the blue glow of transformers blowing- kinda pretty. Lived half my life in FLA and miss certain things but not the humidity or mosquitoes.
For the OP enjoy your vacation, too soon to tell where it will go, so don't worry about it yet.
I just put on the Weather Channel, and this thing has been downgraded to a tropical storm. It looks as if the thing is petering out.
Some of these could be coming to all of America in the not so distant future.
NWS is predicting a Cat 3 before landfall. Definitely not downgrading it.
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It is a tropical storm, Tropical Storm Idalia, it is not downgraded is where you maybe confused. It was never a hurricane. However it will be a hurricane shortly and become Hurricane Idalia and favorable conditions for it to become a major hurricane.
(lets remove how Favorable from my post, I see references to relatively strong windshear for the next 24 hours in the forecast throws a wildcard into the mix so if it does become a major it may not have enough time before landfall to be a powerful "major" meaning Cat 4 or 5)
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Here you go =
I am 75, lived in Florida all of my life and have weathered more storms than I can remember. Please listen to me.
I would STRONGLY advise you not to stay in a one story bungalow 300 feet from the Gulf. They are predicting over 11 feet of storm surge with this hurricane. The biggest cause of death in a hurricane is from storm surge, not wind. As for evacuating to Miami, you will still get nasty weather if the storm tracks more to the east (as many experts are predicting). Don't delay in evacuating. Roads will become a standstill traffic jam because there is only one road from where you are to Miami. Gas stations will start to run out of gas. Stay safe.
Traffic when getting off Siesta Key's 2 bridges, can be a nightmare, without any seemingly good reason.
Most Everybody over 60 will say over and over the roads will be parking lots so stay put. My 86 year old dad has already started this, like he did for Irma and Ian.
I am of the belief that the NHC cone is too narrow. far too many see the center of the track within the cone and make sweeping declarations.
With it forecast to basically parallel the coastline, the smallest wobble within that cone, should it intensify as forecast will have huge ramifications on how high the water gets, and where, and feeder bands, like in Ian, can spawn tornadoes, far away from center.
i think the shape of the NHC cone of uncertainty reminds people of a tornado and they think that, like a tornado, the damage only hits a narrow strip in the middle.
Lots of Ft Meyers area residents within the bottom edge of the cone decided to stay put, as the center of the cone was well to the north,
then Ian took a right turn and kept intensifying, and they couldn't and wouldnt if they could because Flor eee duh,
It's not the heat, it's the stupidity.
Most Everybody over 60 will say over and over the roads will be parking lots so stay put. My 86 year old dad has already started this, like he did for Irma and Ian.
I am of the belief that the NHC cone is too narrow. far too many see the center of the track within the cone and make sweeping declarations.
With it forecast to basically parallel the coastline, the smallest wobble within that cone, should it intensify as forecast will have huge ramifications on how high the water gets, and where, and feeder bands, like in Ian, can spawn tornadoes, far away from center.
i think the shape of the NHC cone of uncertainty reminds people of a tornado and they think that, like a tornado, the damage only hits a narrow strip in the middle.
Lots of Ft Meyers area residents within the bottom edge of the cone decided to stay put, as the center of the cone was well to the north,
then Ian took a right turn and kept intensifying, and they couldn't and wouldnt if they could because Flor eee duh,
It's not the heat, it's the stupidity.
Not everybody over 60 says to stay put. Yes, the roads will become parking lots. My advice to the OP is to evacuate early, not stay put in a one story house 300 feet from the Gulf of Mexico. He is a tourist and has no idea what a hurricane can do or what the aftermath is like.
I urge you to find another source for information. That company is a complete joke and agenda driven.
They have been outed countless times during a storm where their people are staging effects for the camera and their agenda.
