No no no. Keep the convertible.
Even if you get heavy rain, the next day and following days will be beautiful.
Looking at the present track forecast, you will have nothing to worry about.
Need advice for a trip to Sarasota (right on time for a hurricane)
- Thread starter Owen Lucas
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Even if you get heavy rain, the next day and following days will be beautiful.
Looking at the present track forecast, you will have nothing to worry about.
Convertibles are really a winter car in Florida.
About all you can predict at this point in time, is that it's not too early to blame it all on, "Climate Change".
And yet, I'm off to Homeless Depot in 5 minutes, top down.
Don't forget, convertibles are absolutely wonderful on FL summer evenings, the climate is perfect for that.
Air on HIGH, top down.
You dont say where you are staying but if it's in a hotel, the hotel will close.
Cat 1 is nothing, it's more the flooding that can take place.
Your way ahead of yourself, if I was there my biggest concern would be rotten rainy weather.
Avoid the news hype, go right to the source. there is a 5% chance it could hit anywhere within hundreds of miles (if not more) from where you are as of today. It's too soon. enjoy your vacation!
Click the link below to the nhc
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/115631.shtml?tswind120#contents
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Cat 1 is nothing, it's more the flooding that can take place.
Your way ahead of yourself, if I was there my biggest concern would be rotten rainy weather.
Avoid the news hype, go right to the source. there is a 5% chance it could hit anywhere within hundreds of miles (if not more) from where you are as of today. It's too soon. enjoy your vacation!
Click the link below to the nhc
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/115631.shtml?tswind120#contents
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What mass media doesnt want you to know or you would tune out and they lose advertising revenue. Now compare this factual data to your OP from mass media hysteria
I took this pic on my way to Homeless Depot, for the nonbelievers
It was a glorious drive, 86 degrees, sunny, clear, just wonderful.
Just took at look at the winds aloft, 37Kts at 3000 feet, the SW corner of circulation.
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Well it got a name, Idalia.
Very cool. What many don’t realize is that chart is for tropical storm force winds possibility, which is nothing.
I’m not discounting the threat of a hurricane, Just my post to the OP who plans on leaving by the first anyway that it’s way way way too soon to know anything.
If the storm tracks as expected Sarasota will be on the east side of the storm, which is the "bad' side of a tropical storm. Even if you don't get tropical storm winds the surf will be high and dangerous and the beaches will likely be closed to swimming. Expect rain squalls coming in off of the Gulf. Not an ideal vacation in my book. If plans are flexible and you still want beautiful Florida beaches try Pensacola Beach.
https://www.visitpensacola.com/
https://www.visitpensacola.com/
I agree. I actually just used that one since you had posted the same type earlier but its been updated, so you get to see the change. Its meaningless until 48 hours before, sometimes less than that.
I like to follow the storms. I watched Levi's blog last night and he said it was likely to sit where its at for 24 to 36 hours, which is exactly what its doing. He just updated his vlog again, and what I really like is he doesn't just show what they think will happen, but explains in detail why they think that will happen. Worth a watch IMHO..
I've been through many hurricanes here in eastern NC. They are a worry when your property is in jeopordy. I imagine if you are a tourist and have nothing to lose, except your rental car it can be a thrilling experience.
Nothing can focus your attention like 90 mph winds screaming like a banshee and palm trees bent over 45 degrees.
I was in Miami in 1992 during Andrew and not fun thinking the roof will be torn off from 160 mph winds.
Only one man experienced opinion…
I keep saying this…. The intensity forecasting is the hardest aspect of hurricane prediction….
Hurricane Wilma went from a 75 mph minimum hurricane to a 180 mph category 5 within 18 hours… In a location not far from where this current hurricane is at.
The only reason this storm has it strengthened very quickly is upper level wind shear aloft.
That shear is expected to lessen as the storm moves north and then northeast. With deep layer 30 degrees Celsius water underneath it as it makes this move… The only possible limiting factor is unfavorable upper level wind shear.
Which based upon the maximum strength going from 75 mph to now 100 mph at landfall… Suggests that upper level wind shear is not strong enough to cause a major disruption of the storm’s ventilation.
The NEXT 24-36 hours will be key in determining this storm’s maximum potential before hitting land.
Intensity, intensity, intensity forecasting is a weak point still.
It is better to a degree. But the atmosphere is a very volatile and changeable environment which can and has done some amazing changes at times.
I keep saying this…. The intensity forecasting is the hardest aspect of hurricane prediction….
Hurricane Wilma went from a 75 mph minimum hurricane to a 180 mph category 5 within 18 hours… In a location not far from where this current hurricane is at.
The only reason this storm has it strengthened very quickly is upper level wind shear aloft.
That shear is expected to lessen as the storm moves north and then northeast. With deep layer 30 degrees Celsius water underneath it as it makes this move… The only possible limiting factor is unfavorable upper level wind shear.
Which based upon the maximum strength going from 75 mph to now 100 mph at landfall… Suggests that upper level wind shear is not strong enough to cause a major disruption of the storm’s ventilation.
The NEXT 24-36 hours will be key in determining this storm’s maximum potential before hitting land.
Intensity, intensity, intensity forecasting is a weak point still.
It is better to a degree. But the atmosphere is a very volatile and changeable environment which can and has done some amazing changes at times.
That was Hurricane Charley in 2004…,
Which you are totally right in how that happened.
A extremely strong inner eyeball core that was like a large tornado moving from Punta Gorda northeast across Florida.
Get a Jeep if the water rises no problem and if sunny top down!
Another quick look at the 3000 foot winds, 37Kts, but now all the way around, not just the SE corner.
11pm update will have a cat 3 or cat 4 at land fall. Depending on how far north or south it goes, expect them to start evacuating barrier islands. Anywhere from Sarasota north to Pensacola… barrier islands will be evacuated soon, depending on location. And reminder, hurricane Charlie and Ian, both category 5 storms, were forecast to go north towards Tampa and then turned last minute into Punta Gorda and fort Myers areas. For whatever reason, when they strengthen on this NW track they make unexpected easterly turns.
Let us know how the vacation goes.
Stay out of the water . The waves and rip currents will be ripping for the next several days.
Honestly, I think you will have the best time if you “chase” the storm on your vacation. Go to the beach where it’s forecast and watch the waves and wind pickup. It’s fun to watch. You’ll always have plenty of time to drive out of the path of the storm. The best time to travel before a hurricane is about 6-8 hours before landfall. The roads are dead empty and traveling is easy.
I actually drove through hurricane Charley. I worked at the prison and got off. They said I could stay and sleep at the prison or I could drive home if I wanted. I chose to drive right through the 110+ mph winds. Truck did fine. It was memorable.
A convertible will be absolutely useless with this weather. I’d try to get an SUV.
Let us know how the vacation goes.
Stay out of the water . The waves and rip currents will be ripping for the next several days.
Honestly, I think you will have the best time if you “chase” the storm on your vacation. Go to the beach where it’s forecast and watch the waves and wind pickup. It’s fun to watch. You’ll always have plenty of time to drive out of the path of the storm. The best time to travel before a hurricane is about 6-8 hours before landfall. The roads are dead empty and traveling is easy.
I actually drove through hurricane Charley. I worked at the prison and got off. They said I could stay and sleep at the prison or I could drive home if I wanted. I chose to drive right through the 110+ mph winds. Truck did fine. It was memorable.
A convertible will be absolutely useless with this weather. I’d try to get an SUV.
Storm has taken on a symmetrical center dense overcast… Question is how the eye forms and what structure form that takes That is critical to how quickly or not quickly a storm can strengthen.
Hurricane Wilma is an example of how are early eye formation process can effect how fast a storm intensifies. That storm had a small eye in its infancy at 10 miles and then has it rapidly intensified the eye got down to 2 miles across. I distinctly remember the NHC stated at the 11 pm discussion that Wilma had formed the “ dreaded pinhole eye”.
Later on eye wall replacement cycles can either weaken a storm or strengthen it.
In all this mix upper level wind shear, sea water temperature AT DEPTH are huge factors in what happens in relation to a hurricane’s intensity.
Hurricane Wilma is an example of how are early eye formation process can effect how fast a storm intensifies. That storm had a small eye in its infancy at 10 miles and then has it rapidly intensified the eye got down to 2 miles across. I distinctly remember the NHC stated at the 11 pm discussion that Wilma had formed the “ dreaded pinhole eye”.
Later on eye wall replacement cycles can either weaken a storm or strengthen it.
In all this mix upper level wind shear, sea water temperature AT DEPTH are huge factors in what happens in relation to a hurricane’s intensity.
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