How does someone even become an "Independent Expert" on watch authenticity? Specifically Rolex

[MrHorspwer]

At least fakes get you an automatic watch.

That's not setting a high bar.

I own one fake watch. It is a fake Tag Heuer Carrera CH80 that I picked up when I was in Shanghai on business. I will never get rid of this watch. The memory of bartering in an underground market in Shanghai is worth more than the 100 RMB I spent on the watch.

It does have an automatic movement though. It is probably the single worst automatic I have ever had my hands on. It feels like they used sand for a lubricant. When pulling the crown, it *kinda* has detents, but it's more trial and error that it's been pulled out to the approximate location of setting time or date.

Any time I get on a call with the work colleague who hosted us on that particular China trip, he asks about the watch. I tell him that it is still running, though I'm not sure how well it's keeping time anymore.

Of course, not all Chinese automatics are terrible (unlike the one I bought). While I don't own one, some of the Chinese knock-off movements are said to be pretty high quality. Heck, you can get a Chinese tourbillion movement for an affordable price.

 

[JT20]

Actually, there is a YouTube video where someone who owns a Lambo explains ALL the shortcomings and faults of it. If you are tall it is a terrible vehicle for you, and even if you are short, there are a lot of faults with them. Frankly after watching that video, if money were no object, I would not even give one a first look.

Hmmm.

I was quoting a quote or mention in an article where someone was in fact discussing the question, "Who even wears a watch anymore."

If I really think about it, maybe they were referring to.. if a Lamborghini - almost any, really - drives past, you're looking at it, it looks wild.. maybe that was the comparison. (Although they did specifically mention a V-12. So maybe they were referring to Diablo, Murcielago, Aventador, driving experience, even LM002..)

Why did I always think a Countach was a V-10.

 

[JT20]

That's not setting a high bar.

I own one fake watch. It is a fake Tag Heuer Carrera CH80 that I picked up when I was in Shanghai on business. I will never get rid of this watch. The memory of bartering in an underground market in Shanghai is worth more than the 100 RMB I spent on the watch.

It does have an automatic movement though. It is probably the single worst automatic I have ever had my hands on. It feels like they used sand for a lubricant. When pulling the crown, it *kinda* has detents, but it's more trial and error that it's been pulled out to the approximate location of setting time or date.

Any time I get on a call with the work colleague who hosted us on that particular China trip, he asks about the watch. I tell him that it is still running, though I'm not sure how well it's keeping time anymore.

Of course, not all Chinese automatics are terrible (unlike the one I bought). While I don't own one, some of the Chinese knock-off movements are said to be pretty high quality. Heck, you can get a Chinese tourbillion movement for an affordable price.

That was the one thing that led me to stop wearing the watch, "kind of" (I will explain) - Even the one I had where the fit, feel, finish, weight, you'd HAVE to take it to a watchmaker to get it called out as a fake (the movement was good on that one).. it did keep TERRIBLE time.

I still put it on, though.. I just used my phone to tell the time.

Watch like that (Rolex Submariner, or whatever looks like it) really does go with about any outfit and just looks gorgeous. That's the main appeal.

If anyone ever asks if it's real, (the younger crowd either assumes it is, or asks,) I would say, "Ha, I paid $250 for this." That's an answer and implication that "No, it is not." Now you're not representing it as a fraud, like your old obnoxious Uncle Morty might... and that actually kind of makes it even cooler, that something like that can look like that. Even in that social construct, if nobody asks you and nobody cares.. In that instance, I would argue you could get a pass.

Just if anyone asks you, you can't say it's real. That would be a lie.

Thoughts?

 

[JT20]

I see Insignia watches that look similar, and as mentioned, there are "better watches"... I think it is the Rolex name specifically that has been enshrined in most culture.

Jacob, Breitling, Citizen, Armitron, IWC pilots watches (??) https://www.iwc.com/us/en/watch-col...VmYrICh0ECwSeEAQYAyABEgJp9fD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds

I liked Wittnauers, .. there are probably a lot on an upper echelon.

However. For the thrifty.........

Since, this thread is about.. essentially, knock-offs.

I like the alternate viewpoints, we all have our experiences that shape them on the matter...

 

[thastinger]

I have a 2000 model submariner date. I've worn it every day since I bought it. I wear it while changing my oil, spark plugs, cutting wood etc. I don't baby it and it doesn't have a single scratch on it. It looks 99% as good today as it did in the display case 21 years ago.
Point being that real ones wear like a stone, it takes a diamond to scratch the crystal. Real ones are also heavy, you always know its there.
I've sent it in for service twice (time to send it again). Service can run from 400 to 800 depending on what needs done. I had to replace the clasp pins a couple years ago as the wore through from everyday wear over the years.
I'm not an aficionado, only own the one and I don't follow all the model changes or belong to a Rolex forum.
Seen a lot of fakes, never met anyone with a real one who flaunts it but its pretty easy to spot a real one from many feet away.
IIRC I paid 3250 for mine all those years back, it has probably kept up with inflation in terms of valuation so, unless you're never going to sell it, real ones don't really cost any money. Sure, you pay an upfront cost, but you get that money back when you sell it.

 

[thastinger]

How would someone know if something like this was real or not ?

https://www.bobswatches.com/submari...VtwytBh3tBwCZEAQYAyABEgIkjfD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds

The one I had said "Automatic movement" or "Oyster perpetual" (I forget) where this one says "Officially Certified."

Do they really say that?

they say
"superlative chronometer"
"officially certified"

 

[allepunta]

There are a very small portion of owners of real Rolex that have a replica for everyday wearing, so as to protect the real from day to day scratches, and to some extent to lessen the risk of being mugged and losing the real deal.

Rolex is - since about 40 years ago - overpriced for what you get. That disconnect has gotten far worse in the last 4 years. If you want to spend your money on a well made watch with some measure of luxury and exclusivity there are better options than Rolex. I suggest Grand Seiko, Omega, Frederique Constant, or Tudor but this is very subjective.

I have seen, held, taken apart some replicas Rolex that are very scary to owners of reals....it will only get worse for Rolex as the financial incentive is huge and getting even crazier every day!

I disagree, I think in their price range Rolex are the best bang for the buck watches.
No affiliation, fixed a few.

 

[allepunta]

Getting a 28,800 bph movement is not a problem, this will give the same smoothness of ticking on the dial as Rolex submariner. You can use a ETA, Sellita, or some of the Chinese clones of the ETA that have the same occilation frequency.

You need to have the following characteristics to mimic a Rolex Submariner movement:
28,800 beats per hour - 8hz
hacking - means the sweep second hand stops when the crown is pulled out to the fullest extent
hand winding with some smoothness - can't feel or sound like a cheap toy car.
Rotor that winds the mainspring from the movement of the rotor in either CCW or CW direction

An ETA or Sellita will be $120 to $200 and the Chinese clones are about 40% of the ETA or Sellita movements. Miyota (Citizen) make their 9xxx series movements with same frequency as Rolex, but these are easy to identify because the automatic rotor only winds in one direction, the rotor free wheels in the opposite.

I have seen very high calibre copies of the Rolex movement, the Chinese have copied EVERYTHING in a Rolex 3135 movement, down to the perlage on the movement plates. When you open up one of these expensive replicas most watchmakers would feel confident to say they are looking at a real Rolex. For this reason, the sourcing of a used genuine Rolex is very risky. You must do your homework, and buy the SELLER, not the watch.

Getting a 28,800 bph movement is not a problem, this will give the same smoothness of ticking on the dial as Rolex submariner. You can use a ETA, Sellita, or some of the Chinese clones of the ETA that have the same occilation frequency.

You need to have the following characteristics to mimic a Rolex Submariner movement:
28,800 beats per hour - 8hz
hacking - means the sweep second hand stops when the crown is pulled out to the fullest extent
hand winding with some smoothness - can't feel or sound like a cheap toy car.
Rotor that winds the mainspring from the movement of the rotor in either CCW or CW direction

An ETA or Sellita will be $120 to $200 and the Chinese clones are about 40% of the ETA or Sellita movements. Miyota (Citizen) make their 9xxx series movements with same frequency as Rolex, but these are easy to identify because the automatic rotor only winds in one direction, the rotor free wheels in the opposite.

I have seen very high calibre copies of the Rolex movement, the Chinese have copied EVERYTHING in a Rolex 3135 movement, down to the perlage on the movement plates. When you open up one of these expensive replicas most watchmakers would feel confident to say they are looking at a real Rolex. For this reason, the sourcing of a used genuine Rolex is very risky. You must do your homework, and buy the SELLER, not the watch.

28800 vph = 4Hz

36000 = 5 Hz

 

[UncleDave]

There are a very small portion of owners of real Rolex that have a replica for everyday wearing, so as to protect the real from day to day scratches, and to some extent to lessen the risk of being mugged and losing the real deal.

Rolex is - since about 40 years ago - overpriced for what you get. That disconnect has gotten far worse in the last 4 years. If you want to spend your money on a well made watch with some measure of luxury and exclusivity there are better options than Rolex. I suggest Grand Seiko, Omega, Frederique Constant, or Tudor but this is very subjective.

I have seen, held, taken apart some replicas Rolex that are very scary to owners of reals....it will only get worse for Rolex as the financial incentive is huge and getting even crazier every day!

If you include the resale value of the watch and its durability I do not agree they are overpriced.

How many items can you purchase own and use every day with minimal maintenance that sell for what you paid for it or more 20 years later?

Tudor, Grand Seiko, ehhh...ok.....
Omega only a few models hold up. Certain speed master, and Sea Masters, hold but that about it.
Frederic Constant- please....compare new prices to what they sell for on chrono 24. There is little to no exclusivity with ETA based watches.

Had you picked AP, PP, JLC, VC, Breguet, Blancpain, or other in house movement pieces you'd have a much stronger position, but none of that is cheap.

 

[ChristianReske]

There are two young guys here in Munich that are experts in watches. They search Instagram pictures of proms and tell if the Watches are fake or not. Some people react a little bit agressive. There must be even a internet Meme around "The genuine one is stored in the vault!"

Some "proms" meanwhile let this kids certify the authenticy of their watches. What a nice game about posh lifestyle, vanity, gossip and bravado.

https://www.instagram.com/munichwristbusters/

https://munichwristbusters.shop/

 

[PandaBear]

There is a guy on survival channel that wears a Rolex in case he needs to trade something for a car. You never know.

Yeah I'm going to trade my car for a Rolex with some street bum....

 

[KGMtech]

If you include the resale value of the watch and its durability I do not agree they are overpriced.

How many items can you purchase own and use every day with minimal maintenance that sell for what you paid for it or more 20 years later?

Tudor, Grand Seiko, ehhh...ok.....
Omega only a few models hold up. Certain speed master, and Sea Masters, hold but that about it.
Frederic Constant- please....compare new prices to what they sell for on chrono 24. There is little to no exclusivity with ETA based watches.

Had you picked AP, PP, JLC, VC, Breguet, Blancpain, or other in house movement pieces you'd have a much stronger position, but none of that is cheap.

The ability to get your money back on a Rolex down the road is not guaranteed by Rolex or the AD, it is a condition of the current market and could be gone when you want to sell. If Rolex keeps the styles and artificially restricts production, then the risk of your new watch being lower value down the road is low, but you would agree this is a weird situation. If I pay $100k for a watch, it has to represent less than 5% of my discretionary spending, and if you include lost opportunity cost of $100k, it becomes hard to justify for me at least.

I contrasted the options for Rolex with other brands that most people can recognize. Rolex is not considered a true luxury watch brand by the upper level watch collectors. VC, PP, FP Journe, H. Moser, Arnold & Sons and others are targeting a very small niche sector.

 

[PandaBear]

Some people react a little bit agressive. There must be even a internet Meme around "The genuine one is stored in the vault!"

I'm not surprised. After all who is some internet expert to call my watch fake from a jpg or you tube prom video?

If anyone ever asks if it's real, (the younger crowd either assumes it is, or asks,) I would say, "Ha, I paid $250 for this." That's an answer and implication that "No, it is not." Now you're not representing it as a fraud, like your old obnoxious Uncle Morty might... and that actually kind of makes it even cooler, that something like that can look like that. Even in that social construct, if nobody asks you and nobody cares.. In that instance, I would argue you could get a pass.

Just if anyone asks you, you can't say it's real. That would be a lie.

Thoughts?

That's the way to go. Even if it is a real Rolex if you say it is fake then you are getting all the attention in the room and you get to be the cool dude with confidence.

The only people who really concerned about it is work place. If you work in banking and wear a fake Rolex, or not fitting in and not wearing one, people will assume you are a loser, and everyone is concerned about not fitting in that they have to dress the right way. I knew at least 2 people who retired, and never took out their Rolex again. One went so far to burn his Armani suit for a stress relieve.

But you are buying it for YOURSELF right? You don't need others' approval to like the genuine Rolex, you appreciate it, that's enough.

 

[PandaBear]

The ability to get your money back on a Rolex down the road is not guaranteed by Rolex or the AD, it is a condition of the current market and could be gone when you want to sell. If Rolex keeps the styles and artificially restricts production, then the risk of your new watch being lower value down the road is low, but you would agree this is a weird situation. If I pay $100k for a watch, it has to represent less than 5% of my discretionary spending, and if you include lost opportunity cost of $100k, it becomes hard to justify for me at least.

I contrasted the options for Rolex with other brands that most people can recognize. Rolex is not considered a true luxury watch brand by the upper level watch collectors. VC, PP, FP Journe, H. Moser, Arnold & Sons and others are targeting a very small niche sector.

Most collectible are not valued the same way as commodity white goods. You are not buying a Rolex as a precision instrument in 2021 (although it might be in 1951), you are buying it as jewelry and collectible.

Since a watch is manufactured instead of mined, you cannot value it like gold or gem stones (except diamond). Since it is a monopoly (people don't price match and cross shop between Rolex and Tudor usually), you have to assume the uncertainty that the manufacturer has the same incentive of keeping its value high to justify the future value of your watch, just like a Herme bag (I don't know if LV appreciate over the years or not, but from what I heard they don't).

There is no guarantee that one day Blackstone or Bain will not buy out a troubled Rolex brand and mass produce them in Vietnam or China, and then make it a Swatch that every teenager can buy, and then sell the brand out to the Indian, and then suddenly everyone except the corporate raiders made money on the setup. I have seen certificate that Yamaha will buy your piano back for the original purchase price, I have seen some jewelers giving certificate to buy your gold jewelry back at the purchase price (before inflation, so you likely are better off selling it to the gold market after inflation).

 

[Kira]

Heavens, if half this attention was paid to table manners, there wouldn't be a crumb on the floor.

Seriously, watches are cool things. Packing all those parts into a case is marvel enough. They were marvels in the 1700's.
Then they made 'em better and better to levels of true mastery. People are awestruck by their "perfection" and rightfully so.
The gold jewelry bezels and bracelets part of it speaks for itself.

Alas, fewer and fewer people have any mechanical appreciation, let alone aptitude, due to less and less exposure to mechanical things.
Lame examples: People push buttons to see a movie....forget about threading a projector. How many people sew? When was the last time you fixed an appliance?

Ergo, I believe the hypnotic effect of fine watches is on the wane. What they're selling on the street and on TV is comic level gosh.
The Beavis & Butthead generation doesn't know from fineness and their parents who'd actually care that Paul Newman wore a Daytona in a movie are dying off.

Obviously I'm not talking about the Pshaw of Yemen buying a fine watch for the PM of India. As noted above, that's a vanishingly small slice of the market.

In future decades, the fine gears and springs of many darn good watches will be there to make the precious metal case look good and no more.

The gears rust up and require maintenance. In a way, watches are bad art. One saving grace is that they're small. Another is limited runs.

As with many collectables, you gotta have the "key piece".

 

[UncleDave]

The ability to get your money back on a Rolex down the road is not guaranteed by Rolex or the AD, it is a condition of the current market and could be gone when you want to sell. If Rolex keeps the styles and artificially restricts production, then the risk of your new watch being lower value down the road is low, but you would agree this is a weird situation. If I pay $100k for a watch, it has to represent less than 5% of my discretionary spending, and if you include lost opportunity cost of $100k, it becomes hard to justify for me at least.

I contrasted the options for Rolex with other brands that most people can recognize. Rolex is not considered a true luxury watch brand by the upper level watch collectors. VC, PP, FP Journe, H. Moser, Arnold & Sons and others are targeting a very small niche sector.

No one "guarantees" anything. The very best indication of future performance in this regard is past performance.

I completely agree that one should be careful with discretionary spending and that often a large investment in a watch (or anything) is often hard to justify, and that there are often much better investments - but we are talking about watches.

If you want to preserve wealth or increase it, Rolex has a reliable track record of doing so, more so than the brands you mentioned in your first post.

JLC in particular offer Rolex level value holding/ appreciation at Rolex level prices.

It's very rare that pieces below that price point actually appreciate in value.

 

[Benzadmiral]

I picked up my non-date Rolex Sub from an authorized dealer when I lived in Denver. It was ca. 20 years old then, and is nearly 43 now. I've had it serviced several times, I wear it every day, and it's keeping about +4 sec. a day. I look at some sites and see them asking for nearly 10 times what I paid for mine. (They may not get that amount, but we're still talking nutty prices.) I'm glad I bought it, and its stablemate the 1971 Date (also from an AD), when I did.

From time to time I've thought of selling them and buying just one Rolex that would do for both, but then I look at asking prices and I lie down until the thought goes away.

 

[aquariuscsm]

I have always wondered,what’s the rationale for having an uber-expensive watch? Is it all about the “bling” factor? And I thought the $50 Fossil my gf bought me was expensive!!

 

[BMWTurboDzl]

They crack open the back of a Rolex and take a look at the movement.

True story. ETA SA is a manufacturing of swiss movements. They've made millions of them and the story goes that in order to make their sales numbers a few thousand generics or unfinished movements would get sold to companies in Asia where they would be finished and installed in fake/replica Rolex and others. Of course now the movements have been copied.

 

[MrHorspwer]

Ergo, I believe the hypnotic effect of fine watches is on the wane. What they're selling on the street and on TV is comic level gosh.
The Beavis & Butthead generation doesn't know from fineness and their parents who'd actually care that Paul Newman wore a Daytona in a movie are dying off.

This is where I think you're completely off-base.

Look at modern watch collecting: YouTube, Hodinkee, GQ, Esquire

Look at the aspirational figures being featured there: John Mayer, Patrick Mahomes, any number of NBA players, Tyler, the Creator

They're all of your "Beavis & Butthead generation" (the Beavis & Butthead generation are in the 40s now).

Watches are firmly entrenched in multiple levels of fashion, hip hop culture, sports culture, music culture.

Today's "youth" may not know who Paul Newman is or that he wore a Daytona, but they know who Patrick Mahomes is and they know he rocks a rainbow Daytona.

Watch collecting is undergoing a renaissance and, frankly, a democratization. It's not just luxury brands or GTFO. You can find high quality, beautiful timepieces at all price points. Go on a YouTube channel like Pride & Pinion and see what's in their "God Tier" of watch brands: Rolex and Casio. Casio watches are style icons that nearly anybody can afford.

I think you underestimate later generations understanding of "fineness". They understand quality, value, and collecting. Go down the rabbit hole of shoe collecting, fragrance collecting, and collaborative fashion. Just like every generation, they have their aspirational purchases and many of them include watches.