Hoping you really love winter...

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The weatherman can't get the weather right on a 3 day forecast so what makes anyone think they can predict, accurately, 4-6 months away? The weather will do what it will do when the time comes. The only way to really know what the weather will do is look out your window.
 
Hmmm... been a hot summer here (still is hot) and leaves aren't falling.. What part of MI do you live in???

And I agree, way to early to predict that.
 
Originally Posted By: Pop_Rivit
Originally Posted By: daves87rs

http://www.buffalonews.com/city-region/weather/polar-vortex-in-septembers-forecast-20140806

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/fall-2014-forecast-polar-vortex/31254218



One thing I've learned is not to put much faith into long term weather predictions. After all, these are the same folks that have trouble with 3 or 4 day forecasts. Now that the weather folks have their new buzzword "polar vortex" they're using it every chance they get. The weather folks also have lots of pretty maps and lots of technology to augment what boils down to nothing more than a guess.

After this many years I've seen hot summers followed by every type of fall and winter weather imaginable. I've also seen cool summers followed by every type of fall and winter weather imaginable. I've seen winters that have snow on the ground by the end of October, and winters with virtually no snow all season.

My wife and I enjoy winter and the snow. It's a chance to get out on the bike trail with our snow shoes and see all the wildlife that takes over when people aren't around. It's also great exercise-the cold works us harder when we are out in it.

I've prepared for winter exactly the same way every year-prepare for the worst and hope for the best. One thing I won't do is let it worry me.



So wrong. So off base. And thanks for taking a dump on my career.

Long term forecasts and short term forecasts have very little to do with each other. Apples and oranges comparison, and trying to make the comparison shows you don't really know what you're talking about.

Polar vortex is not our new buzz word. It's yours.

We are more correct in our days 1-3 forecasts than you would ever care to admit. I will always admit to varying challenges within the forecast process and different confidence levels. But we are NOT guessing.

Thanks. Move on.
 
Originally Posted By: NHHEMI
The weatherman can't get the weather right on a 3 day forecast so what makes anyone think they can predict, accurately, 4-6 months away? The weather will do what it will do when the time comes. The only way to really know what the weather will do is look out your window.


See reply to pop rivit. Sheesh.
 
Originally Posted By: ClutchDisc
Hmmm... been a hot summer here (still is hot) and leaves aren't falling.. What part of MI do you live in???

And I agree, way to early to predict that.


WHAT summer?! It's 66 degrees, down to 53 last night, low tonight is 55. We haven't HAD summer this year!
 
Originally Posted By: thunderfog
Originally Posted By: NHHEMI
The weatherman can't get the weather right on a 3 day forecast so what makes anyone think they can predict, accurately, 4-6 months away? The weather will do what it will do when the time comes. The only way to really know what the weather will do is look out your window.


See reply to pop rivit. Sheesh.


crackmeup2.gif
 
Originally Posted By: Jarlaxle
WHAT summer?! It's 66 degrees, down to 53 last night, low tonight is 55. We haven't HAD summer this year!

Most of the summer here has been upper 70s to mid 80s. Its 78 degrees right now.
 
Originally Posted By: NHHEMI
The weatherman can't get the weather right on a 3 day forecast so what makes anyone think they can predict, accurately, 4-6 months away? The weather will do what it will do when the time comes. The only way to really know what the weather will do is look out your window.


I work for the National Weather Service (no, I'm not a forecaster) and I can verify this. They can't accurately predict next week's weather let alone what this winter will be like. Nobody can...not Accuweather, not the Farmer's Almanac, nobody. That said, I hope like he** we don't have another winter like the last one...I CAN'T TAKE IT! I'm a summer kind of guy...can't stand winter...in the summer all the pretty gals are wearing their skimpy little outfits...in the winter they're all bundled up and there's nothing to look at!
 
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I don't recall last winter being that bad. Snowed a few times, got cold a couple of times, but other than the typical winter blues I didn't think much of it.

But I think I'll go back to looking at snow tires. Again. That reminds me, I oughta look and see if the snowblower still starts. Heck, didn't even use it last year! That's how mild I thought it was.
 
Originally Posted By: supton
I don't recall last winter being that bad. Snowed a few times, got cold a couple of times, but other than the typical winter blues I didn't think much of it.

But I think I'll go back to looking at snow tires. Again. That reminds me, I oughta look and see if the snowblower still starts. Heck, didn't even use it last year! That's how mild I thought it was.


That's because you're not in the Midwest. The entire winter, and this is no exaggeration, it was either snowing, or we had single digit temps, and this went on the whole winter...it sucked bad!
 
If you think your weatherman can't predict, you need a better weather guy. The hacks on TV are just for ratings and that's why it's always a crisis.

The guy I follow is a meteorology professor at a local college. No drama, just the scientific facts and a weather forecast that is more often right (or close enough) than wrong! Not sure if he's thrown his hat into the ring for the winter yet.
 
Originally Posted By: grampi
Originally Posted By: supton
I don't recall last winter being that bad. Snowed a few times, got cold a couple of times, but other than the typical winter blues I didn't think much of it.

But I think I'll go back to looking at snow tires. Again. That reminds me, I oughta look and see if the snowblower still starts. Heck, didn't even use it last year! That's how mild I thought it was.


That's because you're not in the Midwest. The entire winter, and this is no exaggeration, it was either snowing, or we had single digit temps, and this went on the whole winter...it sucked bad!


I'll give you that. I do recall (when I bothered to watch) seeing on TV that the midwest was hit hard. But I also recall friends and neighbors complaining about winter, and it just wasn't bad here.

Well, we'll see how bad it is. I'm kinda indifferent.
 
Originally Posted By: itguy08
If you think your weatherman can't predict, you need a better weather guy. The hacks on TV are just for ratings and that's why it's always a crisis.

The guy I follow is a meteorology professor at a local college. No drama, just the scientific facts and a weather forecast that is more often right (or close enough) than wrong! Not sure if he's thrown his hat into the ring for the winter yet.


There was a bit of exaggerating in my post about the lack of ability to make accurate predictions, but I was dead serious that NO ONE can accurately predict how bad the winter will be...
 
Originally Posted By: grampi

There was a bit of exaggerating in my post about the lack of ability to make accurate predictions, but I was dead serious that NO ONE can accurately predict how bad the winter will be...


True.

I have seen highly skilled meteorologists from the NOAA long range predictions and others with plenty of credentials and they seem to get it wrong more often than not.
 
Absolutely true. Even the largest supercomputers do not have enough power to account for all the variables in weather.

I'll be thinking about you poor fellas while I'm at the beach!
 
Originally Posted By: SteveSRT8
Absolutely true. Even the largest supercomputers do not have enough power to account for all the variables in weather.

I'll be thinking about you poor fellas while I'm at the beach!

I bet in December, January, you'll spend as much time in the water as I will
wink.gif

Unless I visit Florida, 68-70F water doesn't scare me!
 
The problem with forecasting is lack of input. The equations that generate the various forecast models need to be "started" with observational data. There is barely decent coverage at the surface over land, and very little to almost none over the oceans. Off the surface? Well, you get a weather balloon about every 300 miles twice a day. Very poor resolution. Thus, the output is going to struggle.

It's like HDTV. It's pretty much worthless without the HD receiver. If you don't have the HD signal, you get the same old grainy picture as we did with the digital signal before HD. That's our current model output.
 
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