If the sales fall, so will the price, that’s how the market economy works. Companies will find a way to make profits or will just have to make less of it. The ones that don’t should go away.
Tariffs or no tariffs, it’s been like that forever.
Harley-Davidson Moving More Production Overseas!
- Thread starter EngineWhisperer
- Start date
Tariffs or no tariffs, it’s been like that forever.
Sure, my career was in the business of measuring business. Low margin companies that are cash flow strapped may not be able to survive the increased costs. Especially non-essential products. It happens every day.
Well Bud Light isn't a company, but AB InBev did see negative impacts from its marketing move as did Target, sort of, they are being impacted from backing off some of their DEI programs and the way they addressed the move. Jury is still out on Jaguar, may be a brilliant hail Mary move with a moribund brand and time will tell. The Tata move on Jag is certainly a long term bet.
My point was not that companies do not make bad decisions, it is that it is somewhat simplistic to say that leadership mainly focuses on the next quarter for their "bonus" when exec comp is typically long term focused...this is (was?) my world
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I think it will go up around 25%, but obviously not all at once. there's carryover effects aswell. Tooling gets more expensive, the cars that workers need to get to their jobs get more expensive, transport from the factory to the dealers gets more epensive etc... Given enough time a steel tarrif impacts everything.
I like that the president is a go-getter, just not sure he's picking the 100% right path, but if you only have 4 years in office left things need to happen quickly.
So they invest billion$ only to have the tariffs removed in a couple of years, max.
Inflation through the roof.
And hundreds, if not thousands, of companies go under. Unemployment rolls here we come.
There were lots of tariffs put on in 2017 that never went away. End result was in most cases the costs did not go up - a combination of sellers lowering margins, as did middle men, and stronger dollar.
The vast majority of things we spend money on are still home grown. Food, fuel, your house, healthcare, college education. No tariff.
Yes, the junk at Walmart may go up. Good, the landfills are full. You will be able to buy one quality shirt instead of 3 lousy ones, and you might have a job that allows you to afford it.
Doesn't the US import most of its lumber?
Isn't the US a huge importer of medicines?
Oil and gasoline? Food is something like 15%, I believe.
Harley Davidson dealerships around me are going out of business, I have seen two in the last year, big dealers. They will be on their way out soon, IMO ..... And all the posers who have to ride around with their Harley Shirt on, with all their doctor buddies, will have to settle for a Vespa or something else just as ridiculous.
Sorry to be mean. But it is the way I see it. $40K for a bike? Why, because the lawyers and doctors can pay for it. Not the average stiff.
Sorry to be mean. But it is the way I see it. $40K for a bike? Why, because the lawyers and doctors can pay for it. Not the average stiff.
But they will sure be the first one to blame the tariffs for the decline in sales. Never mind the stagnant product line and high prices.
$40 grand is CVO or top end trike territory.
Sport line starts at 10.500
Cruiser (softail) line starts at 17,200
Touring line starts at 25,800
Pan Am Starts at 20,000
Trikes start at 32,000
Anything but a trike or CVO you'd have to be -10,000 (Maybe 8 if you picked a fancy color) or more over MSRP to spend 40,000.
Sport line starts at 10.500
Cruiser (softail) line starts at 17,200
Touring line starts at 25,800
Pan Am Starts at 20,000
Trikes start at 32,000
Anything but a trike or CVO you'd have to be -10,000 (Maybe 8 if you picked a fancy color) or more over MSRP to spend 40,000.
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We import much lumber, but not the majority. We have plenty of lumber if we chose to produce it.
Were the largest exporter of food on earth. The imports are seasonal or luxury. Much of it from Mexico. I think the odds of not getting a deal done with Mexico are almost zero.
We are net oil exporters.
Pharma is the big one that needs to be fixed with or without tariffs. If China decides to not ship meds, millions die. Its a stupid position to be in, irrelevant of any trade deal.
We can certainly do better than we have. Japan seems to have no problem with our trade preferences. Mexico likely won't either. Just like business, with trade deals you usually can tell who has the best sweetheart deal, there the ones that doth protest too much whenever the suggestion to change comes up.
We could produce more lumber today if we wanted to. If Canadian lumber prices go up, so will any other lumber you and I buy.
Mexico and Canada are important neighbors. I would not minimize the effect of tariffs.
You can't run trade deficits with everyone forever. You end up $36 Trillion in federal government debt, and $12 Trillion in household debt, and $16 Trillion in corporate debt.
This whole thing is a function of aging demographics and too much debt. Sure, it would be awesome to have another 20 years of kicking the can down the road, but there won't be enough people left to even pay the interest.
It was always going to end this way, by design. You can let it happen, or try to actively manage it. But to quote Lyn Alden, "nothing stops this train".
GON
$150 Site Donor 2025
A nation builds wealth be exporting more than it imports.
A nation loses wealth by importing more than it exports.
Very simple, not rocket science. A nation decides if it wants to be wealthier or poorer by its imports and exports.
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if a company wants to survive in a mass market where they sell a ton of their products, they have no choice but to cut corners. they all do it. it's a matter of survival. if you want ultimate quality, buy niche products. Harley Davidson is not a niche product. they are everywhere. but their target demographics are aging fast. young people are not interested by their products. they want adventure bikes, sport touring or standard bikes.
https://www.harley-davidson.com/us/en/motorcycles/2024/road-glide-limited.html
starting a $33
as configured:
Discontinued
I can't help but think Harley is in the end just another Twinkie. Everyone knows them, everyone claims to love them, but almost no one buys them.
The Harley Davidson earnings are interesting. Their sales collapsed at negative 17%. Even though 2/3 of there sales are still USA, most of the decline was off-shore. They sold less motorcycles than they did in the depths of the great recession.
From Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/business/au...n-cuts-full-year-revenue-forecast-2024-10-24/
The Harley Davidson earnings are interesting. Their sales collapsed at negative 17%. Even though 2/3 of there sales are still USA, most of the decline was off-shore. They sold less motorcycles than they did in the depths of the great recession.
From Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/business/au...n-cuts-full-year-revenue-forecast-2024-10-24/
RE the road glide limited. (or whatever they were called)
Last year the road glide and street glide went to new fairings and bodywork. The trikes and the limited and ultra limited retained (or whatever they were called) the old fairings and body work The Road King Special retained the old tank and bags.
This year the Ultra Limited and Limited are gone (or whatever they were called). And there is a Street Glide Ultra and a Limited Package available on the road glide to me that's a little strange but that's how it is. So yeah i guess you could spend 40 if you pick all the extras, but i don't believe anyone is doing that. Which is why the Ultra and Limited went away as separate models IMO.
I don't know what will happen with the Road King Special and Trikes next year, but id be kinda surprised if the Road king survives, which is kind of a shame.
The bulk of the line is in the low 20-s to 30 range, which is a lot but its commiserate with Indian and BMW and to the extent that there is comparable bikes Ducati and Triumph. It is also not that far out of line with where they were 10 years ago.
Harley has reduced the number of models in the touring line where there was a few years ago 3 models of street glide and the same for Road Glide, now there is one each and some packages. They have done strange things in the softail line up too, for instant there is no "chrome" trim Heritage this year which is weird, but also the "black" trim has some chrome. The street bob has no black trim... Shrug...
The real problem IMO is the bottom of the line, look at Indian's Scout Series - there are a lot of them and some of them have a traditional look, comparatively the Rev Max (Sport) Series is dismal. BMW and Triumph also have healthy selection in that segment and smaller.
The "heavyweight cruiser" market is declining overall smaller bikes are what is selling and in the larger bikes more stripped down "bobber" or "club" style bikes are selling better that to steal a term form BMW "Transcontinental".
Harley needs to figure out a way to put some meat in the lower end of the line and it needs to be able to look traditional. Im surprised (actually shocked) that the Sport line is going on like year 3 with no expansion. Maybe they are scared because the 3 they have don't sell, but the 3 they have don't appeal to most of the buyers of the line they replaced. There used to be a Xl1200T, a 72, a 48, and some 883's and customs, now there's just the nightster, the nighster with a flysceen and the Sportster S (abomination). On top of that none of them are as low as the old sportsters, which was a gateway for people who are shorter. Even though they weren't really "Girls" bikes, there's a reason people called the Deluxe, Slim and Sportster "Girls" bikes. Wonder who has that market now. Keep in mind i'm not saying the rev max is a bad bike, it isn't, it just doesn't appeal to the people it needs to.
Look at the 400 cc market, that's the growing segment of motorcycles. it is a bit confusing why Harley doesn't at least try to compete in that segment in the US with the X series. It's also why Honda's line is what it is.
Sales for 24 are going to look bad because they had their own little mini Bud Light moment, Sales for 25 will probably look bad for the touring line because prices went back up. The Paint is still a little off and the available 2 tones don't flow imo as well. I'd like to see the take rate on the special colors because they are expensive.
Anyway. If i had any control at the MoCo I would be trying to figure out how to bring the XL Sportster line back.
Last year the road glide and street glide went to new fairings and bodywork. The trikes and the limited and ultra limited retained (or whatever they were called) the old fairings and body work The Road King Special retained the old tank and bags.
This year the Ultra Limited and Limited are gone (or whatever they were called). And there is a Street Glide Ultra and a Limited Package available on the road glide to me that's a little strange but that's how it is. So yeah i guess you could spend 40 if you pick all the extras, but i don't believe anyone is doing that. Which is why the Ultra and Limited went away as separate models IMO.
I don't know what will happen with the Road King Special and Trikes next year, but id be kinda surprised if the Road king survives, which is kind of a shame.
The bulk of the line is in the low 20-s to 30 range, which is a lot but its commiserate with Indian and BMW and to the extent that there is comparable bikes Ducati and Triumph. It is also not that far out of line with where they were 10 years ago.
Harley has reduced the number of models in the touring line where there was a few years ago 3 models of street glide and the same for Road Glide, now there is one each and some packages. They have done strange things in the softail line up too, for instant there is no "chrome" trim Heritage this year which is weird, but also the "black" trim has some chrome. The street bob has no black trim... Shrug...
The real problem IMO is the bottom of the line, look at Indian's Scout Series - there are a lot of them and some of them have a traditional look, comparatively the Rev Max (Sport) Series is dismal. BMW and Triumph also have healthy selection in that segment and smaller.
The "heavyweight cruiser" market is declining overall smaller bikes are what is selling and in the larger bikes more stripped down "bobber" or "club" style bikes are selling better that to steal a term form BMW "Transcontinental".
Harley needs to figure out a way to put some meat in the lower end of the line and it needs to be able to look traditional. Im surprised (actually shocked) that the Sport line is going on like year 3 with no expansion. Maybe they are scared because the 3 they have don't sell, but the 3 they have don't appeal to most of the buyers of the line they replaced. There used to be a Xl1200T, a 72, a 48, and some 883's and customs, now there's just the nightster, the nighster with a flysceen and the Sportster S (abomination). On top of that none of them are as low as the old sportsters, which was a gateway for people who are shorter. Even though they weren't really "Girls" bikes, there's a reason people called the Deluxe, Slim and Sportster "Girls" bikes. Wonder who has that market now. Keep in mind i'm not saying the rev max is a bad bike, it isn't, it just doesn't appeal to the people it needs to.
Look at the 400 cc market, that's the growing segment of motorcycles. it is a bit confusing why Harley doesn't at least try to compete in that segment in the US with the X series. It's also why Honda's line is what it is.
Sales for 24 are going to look bad because they had their own little mini Bud Light moment, Sales for 25 will probably look bad for the touring line because prices went back up. The Paint is still a little off and the available 2 tones don't flow imo as well. I'd like to see the take rate on the special colors because they are expensive.
Anyway. If i had any control at the MoCo I would be trying to figure out how to bring the XL Sportster line back.
What is? The above build I just did? A 2024 or 2025?
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