Demographics and economics - the explanation for everything

[Dave Hess]

Japan is

As someone with two young kids today I understand why birth rates are down. Daycare for 2 kids would cost $35k/yr. Doesn’t make sense for both parents to work so one income it is for the household. DINKs (dual income no kids) can buy big brand new houses that people with families simply can’t right now. It’s a sacrifice not many want to make. This is where we are at - we love our kids though and wouldn’t trade them.

Yep.

Kids are very, very expensive and costly to raise without help from government.

 

[SC Maintenance]

@SC Maintenance do you follow Peter Zeihan at all? He’s one who has a lot of material on demographics and the role it plays.

I have read his most recent book, and watched a number of his presentations on youtube. His older stuff is well researched and credited, and I believe accurate. However about 2 years ago he got way out over his ski's. He became political (and subsequently very wrong about it), and started making predictions on things he knows nothing about - like economics. His ego has clearly gotten too big and it has clouded his judgement.

He should have stuck to demographics - because anything he has said in the last 2 years I now take with skepticism.

 

[Owen Lucas]

Indeed, if we're to follow the population trend that SK and Japan is following, the younger generations are in for a rough time.

Robots will definitely be needed.

 

[Number_35]

I took a Population Geography course in 1978. (Where did the years go?)

The prof showed us various typical population pyramids, and then one for Japan, with projections into the future. The pyramid was expected to morph into a beehive.

Japan was thought to be an anomaly back then, as Malthusian doom and gloom was the prevailing mindset.

It's weird to see so many developed countries with such low birth rates. Much of the Eurozone will be depopulated in a couple of generations barring more immigration.