Originally Posted By: sdowney717
A great read from a former ICE compliance and market supervision director of the International Petroleum Exchange.
Says oil will fall back to 50 a barrel
Says a lot of fraud in the trading. Not based on reality.
Quote:
All is not as it appears in the global oil markets, which in my view have become entirely dysfunctional and no longer fit for its purpose. I believe that the market price is about to collapse as it did in 2008 and that this will mark the end of an era in which the market has been run by and on behalf of trading and financial intermediaries.
In this post I forecast the imminent death of the crude oil market, and I identify the killers; the re-birth of the global market in crude oil in new form will be the subject of another post.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/01/chris-cook-naked-oil.html
We will never see cheap oil again. As oil reserves are being depleted, it costs now near $75 to produce a barrel of oil. The rest is profit margin and speculation (Iran war premium).
The only saving grace is cheap natural gas.
If you want oil price collapse, it will take another global recession/depression. I'm not sure you want for that to happen (unemployment > 20%).