A "Lube Report" Perspective on Motor Oil Pricing

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I have a couple of questions- 1. Is the "double digit levels of need" from the blenders being causes by depleted warehouse inventories or people hoarding up sale-price motor oil, or both? 2. Due to all of this good news, do any of you expect to see a price reduction 3-4 months from now, or do you expect the wholesalers/retailers/blenders/suppliers continue to keep prices where they are at to recover more rapidly from their losses during the last half of 2005 and first half of 2006?
 
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Price reductions? In your dreams. Or, about the same time the local governments reduce the total property tax collections (this does not mean a 2% drop in rate against a 20% increase in assessment would count)
 
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quote:
...people hoarding up sale-price motor oil..
A couple of points to keep in mind: 1. The DIY oil change market segment is less than 50%, so more vehicle owners are getting bulk oil/packaged oil changes from Quickie Lube sources than are carrying home sale priced bottled oil for a DIY change. 2. The PCMO market segment for automotive lubricants (includes transmission oils, greases) is roughly 30% of the total base oil market. Commercial/Fleet sales of heavy duty truck lubricants accounts for roughly 20%. The remainder of the total base oil market is used for industrial lubricants. Source: Jobbers World 2002 Base Oil Market Segments
 
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quote:
Originally posted by thooks: I have a couple of questions- 1. Is the "double digit levels of need" from the blenders being causes by depleted warehouse inventories or people hoarding up sale-price motor oil, or both? Automotive and industrial useage is up AT least 30% from 2-3 years ago and all in this year alone. 2. Due to all of this good news, do any of you expect to see a price reduction 3-4 months from now, [LOL!] [LOL!] or do you expect the wholesalers/retailers/blenders/suppliers continue to keep prices where they are at to recover more rapidly from their losses YES [Wink] during the last half of 2005 and first half of 2006?
bruce
 
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Let's all do our part to reduce the effects of this 'crisis' by extending our OCI's as long as possible. The more we can help our neighbours to stop doing unproductive things (like needless 3k mile OCI's), the better the economy will be overall.
 
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