Wait for the used car bubble to burst or not?

[Shaman]

I've got a 2009 Sonata with some body damage and 140K miles, and I am looking to buy something newer than 2015. The vehicles that sold at the first of the year for $12K have similar vehicles listing at $14-15K now. I'm not confident that the Sonata would sell at $2k more than it would have, so the price difference is hard to justify. Do you see the market price going down anytime soon?

I'm looking at midsize sedans if it clarifies anything.

 

[mrsilv04]

At this point, don't buy used. Buy a NEW 2020 Ford Fusion with the 2.5 liter engine, at several thousand off sticker prices.

2020 Ford Fusion S | 3FA6P0G73LR257320 | (615) 244-3615 Wyatt Johnson Ford Nashville TN

Schedule Your Test Drive Now Call Us at (615) 244-3615 | Test drive this New 2020 Ford Fusion S in Nashville, TN 3FA6P0G73LR257320 Local Prices Friendly Service Great Deals Happening Now Call Us Today! (615) 244-3615

www.wyattjohnsonford.com

 

[sloinker]

I'm prognosticating an eventual return of the supply chain and abundant new vehicles followed by an unprecedented crash of used vehicle prices and trade in values, I'm thinking a 50% correction followed by much higher interest rates....1 to 2 years out.

 

[CKN]

I'm prognosticating an eventual return of the supply chain and abundant new vehicles followed by an unprecedented crash of used vehicle prices and trade in values, I'm thinking a 50% correction followed by much higher interest rates....1 to 2 years out.

I would agree but I'm thinking it's closer to 30%, except for trucks. It's true used ones have gone crazy high-but they were still high before the pandemic. There will not be a steep crash of used truck prices. There is still enough profits to under write a 2.9% or 3.9% or whatever ( for 750 plus FICO) loan rate in new trucks should interest rates increase.

 

[Rmay635703]

I'm prognosticating an eventual return of the supply chain and abundant new vehicles followed by an unprecedented crash of used vehicle prices and trade in values, I'm thinking a 50% correction followed by much higher interest rates....1 to 2 years out.

Not sure if that will play out on used cars or instead just car loans

We have inflation + high employment + stagnation + interest below replacement values

Meanwhile GM has learned how to produce fewer vehicles with higher profits, you may see car makers roll with limiting supply to increase up front prices and profit

All this while the us exports record number of used and junk car’s overseas

Perfect storm for driving high car prices just like the high home prices

Breaking point will be when the upper third of buyers (who are the only ones buying) loose interest and find no one willing to purchase

 

[doublebase]

It’s probably still a ways off, things just take too long to change and correct.

But I wouldn’t pay prices you don’t feel comfortable paying, regardless.

You can always negotiate or walk away: and there’s just so many avenues and options out there. No need to pay prices you don’t want to - check our Facebook market place, Craigslist, autotrader - you’ll find something. Last year I paid $15,000 for a 2016 Toyota Avalon with 50,000 miles on it (loaded). All it took was a little patience searching Facebook market place. And I also bought a 2012 Mercedes ML350 with 90,000 miles on it for $11,000 at a used car dealer. No accidents, well maintained (Maintenance history). Some used dealers want to actually move cars, rather than letting them sit on their lot for 6 weeks gathering dust.

 

[skyactiv]

A used car bubble will never burst. We are already exporting used vehicles to countries with a much lower GDP.
New vehicles are cheaper in the USA compared to many countries when you convert the dollar.
The auto makers wanna level the pricing field on new cars and it won't benefit us Americans.

Not to be political, but there are those that want gas prices to rise and I believe it will happen like it did in 2008.
Remember what the $4 a gallon gas did?

 

[ctechbob]

At this point, don't buy used. Buy a NEW 2020 Ford Fusion with the 2.5 liter engine, at several thousand off sticker prices.

2020 Ford Fusion S | 3FA6P0G73LR257320 | (615) 244-3615 Wyatt Johnson Ford Nashville TN

Schedule Your Test Drive Now Call Us at (615) 244-3615 | Test drive this New 2020 Ford Fusion S in Nashville, TN 3FA6P0G73LR257320 Local Prices Friendly Service Great Deals Happening Now Call Us Today! (615) 244-3615

www.wyattjohnsonford.com

I haven't followed the Fusion, that's not one of the ones with the crap transmissions in it is it?

 

[meep]

I kinda agree with @skyactiv. This could just be an inflation-looking sort of thing where both new and used car prices track together. They never really dipped except for a very short period last year and then have just shot up. If there is healthy demand, i dont see prices falling. Home lending seems to be on the uptick too. Smells a lot like it did 15 years ago.

 

[bullwinkle]

Just wait until interest rates jump, after inflation starts to take off from all the excess cash dumped into the economy. Prices & demand for anything requiring a loan will hit the wall, HARD.

 

[Rmay635703]

A used car bubble will never burst. We are already exporting used vehicles to countries with a much lower GDP.

Remember what the $4 a gallon gas did?

It made it so I could buy a new last years model of truck for $12,000

 

[Aichiguy]

At this point, don't buy used. Buy a NEW 2020 Ford Fusion with the 2.5 liter engine, at several thousand off sticker prices.

2020 Ford Fusion S | 3FA6P0G73LR257320 | (615) 244-3615 Wyatt Johnson Ford Nashville TN

Schedule Your Test Drive Now Call Us at (615) 244-3615 | Test drive this New 2020 Ford Fusion S in Nashville, TN 3FA6P0G73LR257320 Local Prices Friendly Service Great Deals Happening Now Call Us Today! (615) 244-3615

www.wyattjohnsonford.com

I've seen brand new Fusions priced @ $16k.

 

[miden851]

i'd wait for equilibrium in the market for used car; otherwise, get a beater to weather the storm


we bought this one for my daily driver last year 05/29/20 and that's when the prices of used cars hit the bottom pretty much; we got it OTD for $21,500

 

[aquariuscsm]

Not to be political, but there are those that want gas prices to rise and I believe it will happen like it did in 2008.
Remember what the $4 a gallon gas did?

I remember that VERY well!! My 300ZX has a 20 gallon gas tank. It requires premium unleaded. I remember those $80-$90 dollar fill-ups. The only places we went for awhile was work and home.

 

[Pew]

I remember that VERY well!! My 300ZX has a 20 gallon gas tank. It requires premium unleaded. I remember those $80-$90 dollar fill-ups. The only places we went for awhile was work and home.

I wasn't driving then luckily. I just remember premium in 2013/14 being some $4.80+ and I had to fill the Evo (14.5gal) 3 times a week just for work. That shell gas station down the street must have loved me.

 

[Leo99]

Hard to predict the future. A supply chain shortage of something besides chips could keep prices high and we'll see longer lasting effects of the shutdown than anticipated. As the world starts to open up more, more people will be driving and demand for cars will go up. On the other hand, more people that have been working from home will see their cars getting a lot less use and therefore, lasting longer and less demand for replacement.

 

[zzyzzx]

I haven't followed the Fusion, that's not one of the ones with the crap transmissions in it is it?

No.

 

[zzyzzx]

Hard to predict the future. A supply chain shortage of something besides chips could keep prices high and we'll see longer lasting effects of the shutdown than anticipated. As the world starts to open up more, more people will be driving and demand for cars will go up. On the other hand, more people that have been working from home will see their cars getting a lot less use and therefore, lasting longer and less demand for replacement.

I agree in that everything seems impossible to predict. Now they are saying chip shortage could last for 2 years. That was according to the CEO of Intel, not some stupid reporter speculating. No way to predict how this affects any particular type of semiconductor, since that is not being reported.

 

[Shaman]

I remember that VERY well!! My 300ZX has a 20 gallon gas tank. It requires premium unleaded. I remember those $80-$90 dollar fill-ups. The only places we went for awhile was work and home.

20 gallons in a sports car? Our work Toyota Tundra has 22 or 24 gallon tank. it's $60 to fill up now. Our 3500 Ram was $125 on it's first fill up back in 2015. No idea how big the tank is on it?

 

[jhs914]

I haven't followed the Fusion, that's not one of the ones with the crap transmissions in it is it?

No. The Fusion has a regular 6 speed torque converter automatic. You are thinking of the Focus and Fiesta dual clutch PowerShift transmission. The 4 cylinder Fusion has been known as a reliable car for its entire model run. I would not hesitate to buy one, especially with the close out deals on 2020 models.