Two Thirds Of New Cars Will Be Electric/Hybrids by 2032

The easiest way to “tip the scales” is to keep driving the initial and operating costs of ICE vehicles ever higher via additional regulations and penalties; larger vehicles and increased mandatory options and gadgets, while maintaining and even increasing subsidies on EVs and hybrids. That’s the only way to influence the overall sales number to hit 2/3 in any “reasonable” time. The overall effect will be fewer vehicles sold, yet will still not likely meet the arbitrary targets. 2 out of every 3 people in the market for new cars simply don’t want the increased complexity and inconvenience inherent in PHEV/EV vehicles.

Choice must evaporate for the proposed plan to be “successful”.
That appears to be the plan, along with driving up the price of gas. Look no further than CAs gas prices, choke someone long enough, and they'll submit or die, or in the case of CA many more will leave the state.
 
Here is something about the participation of various states. Again, California dominates but the national average is less than half of California’s rate. Over 30 states have a rate of less than 8%.

View attachment 210285
The problem with this chart is many Americans will be led to believe that over 9% of the cars on the road in the USA are EVs and some might even think 25% cars on the road in CA are EVs.

The chart should be titled "percentage of new car sales" This is where the media drives me crazy, it almost seems like an agenda. But the news story would sound boring if it said "percentage of EVs on USA roads".

If that was the title it would then show CA with 5% instead of a whopping 25%

May sound silly what I am posting but really think about the everyday consumer that doesnt follow this stuff.

Ok, back to the chart, here is the shocker, the chart may leave some to believe is a national average of 9% is EV cars on the road
Currently 1% of cars on the road are Electric Vehicles in the USA.

Im willing to bet many Americans (not in this forum) would think it is much more based on the chart.

Here is an industry publication that it straight forward and refers to SALES percentage. Leaving no doubt and no misunderstanding.
They use the word, "new vehicle sales" and also mention 1% of the cars on the road are EV.
Dont misunderstand me (for others) Im not saying sales are bad but you can expect a leveling off once we reach market penetration for those who can. fit an EV into their lifestyle.
It will be interesting for sure. Im expecting maybe one day 25% on the road but starting to wonder being sales have already started to flatten, how can that be?

 
Last edited:
The easiest way to “tip the scales” is to keep driving the initial and operating costs of ICE vehicles ever higher via additional regulations and penalties; larger vehicles and increased mandatory options and gadgets, while maintaining and even increasing subsidies on EVs and hybrids.
In my state, people pay a penalty to register hybrids and EVs -- a $75 annual surcharge for a hybrid and a $175 surcharge for an EV. Meanwhile, a Class C RV plate costs $55/yr.
 
In my state, people pay a penalty to register hybrids and EVs -- a $75 annual surcharge for a hybrid and a $175 surcharge for an EV. Meanwhile, a Class C RV plate costs $55/yr.
Im sure you know that is to pay for the roads in your state. With gasoline purchases the tax pays for the roads. With EVs they have to find a way to do the same.
I suspect in a decade or two, EVs will be taxed on electric used or reported mileage traveled. But who knows. They will figure it out, right now this is the only fair way, take an annual average of the taxes gasoline tax paid per vehicle and apply that tax to EV registrations.
 
Im sure you know that is to pay for the roads in your state. With gasoline purchases the tax pays for the roads. With EVs they have to find a way to do the same.
Of course. But if there's a subsidy out there for driving a hybrid, we haven't seen it. And the vehicles that really beat up the roads are 18-wheel trucks. Rail is much more efficient for freight hauling, but somehow trucking has gained the upper hand over the last half century. Could it be that something other than market forces have had a role in that?
 
Of course. But if there's a subsidy out there for driving a hybrid, we haven't seen it. And the vehicles that really beat up the roads are 18-wheel trucks. Rail is much more efficient for freight hauling, but somehow trucking has gained the upper hand over the last half century. Could it be that something other than market forces have had a role in that?
I understand that, I dont know any tax that is fair to everyone, except that EVs need to pay it too and thus us the only current solution. Also EVs weight far more than same size gas vehicles.

As far as 18 wheelers. They pay significantly more in diesel fuel tax than gasoline. On the federal level alone the diesel tax is 25% more than gas and the local and state level if off the wall higher.
 
Rail is much more efficient for freight hauling, but somehow trucking has gained the upper hand over the last half century. Could it be that something other than market forces have had a role in that?
The introduction of JIT is what screwed rail over, along with the cheap fuel prices at the time. Places then enthusiastically, and myopically, ripped up huge swaths of rail infrastructure because of the "trucking revolution". At that point it didn't matter when fuel prices went back up, we'd already gone JIT and we'd already sabotaged rail to make trucking the default "winner".

Our highways and roads were not constructed to handle this amount of truck traffic and so the damage done, even though it should be compensated for through fuel taxes, doesn't seem to actually be properly accounted for in this funding mechanism. And of course increasing fuel taxes would have other impacts.

Of course inflation and higher fuel prices drove up the price of trucking, so then companies started hiring "less qualified" people to drive trucks. You end up with entire families of recent immigrants living in the truck, taking turns driving in order to get established here in the West. These are conditions that Joe Average would never even consider working under, which is why 3rd world types are the only ones who do. Many of them have never even heard of snow let alone driven in it, and then Swift sends them through the Rockies with a fully loaded 53 in a truck with 300HP, mentioning something about safety chains and ice in passing.

If I were a cynic, I'd say that because these trucking companies can't outsource to China or Mexico, they just effectively make the labour conditions such that imports from the 3rd world are the only people that will tolerate them.
 
Totally believing the hybrid part. EV.... another story based on where you are and local income level.

Didn't Toyota say they will only build hybrid Camry from now on? The mpg difference would be like 1/4 minimum on a hybird. If you drives a lot or you live in a high fuel price nation it just makes sense.
 
Of course. But if there's a subsidy out there for driving a hybrid, we haven't seen it. And the vehicles that really beat up the roads are 18-wheel trucks. Rail is much more efficient for freight hauling, but somehow trucking has gained the upper hand over the last half century. Could it be that something other than market forces have had a role in that?
Edit: NVM. @OVERKILL and @alarmguy summed it up
 
BMW X5 PHEV is absolute hit. I think it is most sought after X5. B58 I6 and I think 40mls range.
But not realistic for the majority of people.

1711390790644.jpg
 
The USA is divided into several ways. State lines, cheap gasoline vs expensive gasoline etc. States with cheap gasoline are not buying into the EV craze very well. I didn't have to bring politics into it. :D Its totally wrong to assume each state will follow the lead of the expensive gasoline states. California will reach 2/3 of car sales being EV and and Hybrids before 2023, but that might be it.
1711391567613.jpg
 
For sure, maybe by another 30-40 years past the current goal. Which means if I'm around and still driving it will be a miracle. Who knows, November could be a real game changer for ICE.
A battle waged over who can be more coercive than the other. I wouldn't hold your breath.
 
Im sure you know that is to pay for the roads in your state. With gasoline purchases the tax pays for the roads. With EVs they have to find a way to do the same.
I suspect in a decade or two, EVs will be taxed on electric used or reported mileage traveled. But who knows. They will figure it out, right now this is the only fair way, take an annual average of the taxes gasoline tax paid per vehicle and apply that tax to EV registrations.
Yeah, it's the trade off. The conversation of fairness of cost has come up a few times here, but at the end of the day this is the least intrusive method to charge for it since no tracking is required. I want to pay my road tax to use it just the same as anyone else. I would probably consider other options if electricity wasn't so cheap here. Hybrids get hit for the road tax with tags too at nearly the same level as an EV here which doesn't seem right. They're not off fuel, they're getting 30-50mpg.
 
Not stirring the pot but that's the ukase from the EPA handed down Wednesday.

Much ado about not much. Suprising how weak this truly is, yet it's being used for gain by many self important parties of people, political and otherwise.

Don't worry, your beloved ICE vehicles will just get a hybrid motor and a very small battery, and life will go on.

Nothing to see here. These aren't the droids that the EV advocates were looking for.
 
I had an ev. Bought it for the $7500 tax credit. Figured id drive it for a year then sell it and get what i actually wanted.

Didnt work out that way as i lost 40% value in 1yr.

I dont have a problem with an ev but they just arent there yet in my opinion.

Here are a few reasons i believe this.

1.I had a chevy bolt. Max range 250 miles. If you live in the city thats fine. In the country not so much.

2. If you charged it off a regular 110 it took roughly 54hrs to charge. I didnt have access to a 220 to fast charge. Even using fastest charger it still took 30 minutes to hit 80%.

3. My electric bill went up $100 a month

Now you can always get more expensive evs that charge faster but then $$.

How many people live in apartments etc that cant charge at home?

You cant fill your battery to 100% if you want it to last.

You lose about 50% range in the cold.

When i traded mine in waze said it should take me 4.5hrs. It took 6 with the charging....

Just my 2 cents
 
I had an ev. Bought it for the $7500 tax credit. Figured id drive it for a year then sell it and get what i actually wanted.

Didnt work out that way as i lost 40% value in 1yr.

I dont have a problem with an ev but they just arent there yet in my opinion.

Here are a few reasons i believe this.

1.I had a chevy bolt. Max range 250 miles. If you live in the city thats fine. In the country not so much.

2. If you charged it off a regular 110 it took roughly 54hrs to charge. I didnt have access to a 220 to fast charge. Even using fastest charger it still took 30 minutes to hit 80%.

3. My electric bill went up $100 a month

Now you can always get more expensive evs that charge faster but then $$.

How many people live in apartments etc that cant charge at home?

You cant fill your battery to 100% if you want it to last.

You lose about 50% range in the cold.

When i traded mine in waze said it should take me 4.5hrs. It took 6 with the charging....

Just my 2 cents
The 1st question I ask perspective EV buyers is, "How ya gonna charge." The #1 reason people go back to ICE is charging issues.
 
Back
Top