There Will Be Blood – Peter Mertens, Former Head of Audi R&D: “We All Did Sleep”

JHZR2

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Originally Posted by Blueskies123
It is funny how so many people cannot see the future. All those people that owned horses in the early part of the century just could not get their head around horseless carriages.
It's not necessarily a matter of not seeing the future. It's more of a matter of knowing the technologies related to power generation, distribution, and especially storage, inside and out. And that includes with very complex control systems, and far more sources and loads than a Tesla. And understanding the practical downsides to implementing the technology. Understanding that it is far beyond controls. That the actual physics of the situation is a major factor here which is brushed under if we are going to relegate everything to code and controls.
Originally Posted by JeffKeryk
Many of your points do not reflect the reality of owning a Tesla or Tesla's winning strategies. Yes, a Tesla is a luxury, expensive car. Name a luxury car that is not expensive or is not a toy. The S and X are not big sellers; the 3 and new Y are and will be. This was Musk's strategy from the beginning. Even during the pandemic, Tesla is making money and selling more cars than many. Not on the $75K and up cars... You talk about charging times. The vast majority of owners charge at home; you spend much more time overall at a gas station. In Silicon Valley, many people commute 75 to 150 miles daily. They love the Tesla because they charge at work (free or subsidized), get the computer lane, etc. Of course, long trips are not any ECs strong point. Personally, I would rather fly and have other vehicles. There are all kinds of updates; some are gimmicky others are important. Safety and ease of use features are examples. The Model 3 is one of the safest cars on the road. Calling SW update folly is incorrect; it is the future. And it is Tesla strong point. Tesla's real world data capture is a huge asset. You compare the Model 3 to other lux cars. After driving the Model 3 and getting into the beautiful GS, I find the GS interior cluttered and confusing. You mention Apple switching to ARM RISC architecture. Intel is behind on their chip software vs RISC. Same as every other carmaker vs Tesla. Except more so. Tesla's market cap reflects investor's confidence in them as a company. I would not say that tells us nothing. 2 points: The Model 3 is #1 in owner satisfaction; only mighty Porsche is even close. Every major car company is building EVs. Why? Tesla has set the mark pretty darn high. Heck, the incredible Model S is 10 years old.
You missed many of my points. Luxury cars are expensive. Some may say it's not my place to say what segments the cars are in, but the reality is that I see a 3 series, not a 5, and that's a far bigger and potentially easier market to break into, and/or to buy a toy in. Did Tesla have a backlog of orders? I seem to remember that back when they were taking $100 from every willing person. The other established cars are bound to have just a more normal cycle of lease, damage, age, and general desire for updating. Two different market phenomena at play, imo. You made my case regarding free and subsidized electricity. When the real costs come to bite, the EV romance may fall a bit. 75 mile commutes are different than 300 mile there and back day or overnight trips. What one can do with no gas station stops now becomes a much bigger consideration. Hotel doesn't have a plug? Now I'm wasting more time. I think we both agree that long distance use isn't the ev forte, but there are intermediate distances where imo I can't make a case for the purchase of one personally. Not when I can get 700-800 miles on a tank of RUG in my hybrid. I called sw updates folly because as is only as good as what is designed in. I mentioned over design practices for batteries, and then eating into margin as data allows. That is a form of condition based "maintenance", for lack of better terms. But it doesn't change physics. My point about sw is that an update for a mechanical-electrical system doesn't change the rules of physics. The point about Apple was that they were blaming their supplier (intel) for slowing down their cycle. That's where the original article makes sense to me, and again, I'm an advocate for organic growth of knowledge in companies. If Tesla does that better than anyone else, then great. No arguments from me. Owner satisfaction I'll take with a grain of salt. Tesla is giving the owners cheap/subsidized/free electricity to drive off of, in a car with undoubtedly good performance in terms of speed, and some tech that folks want. I'd love to know how many of thee cars are leased vs owned, and what the true cost of ownership becomes as time goes on. We're not far enough in time yet to really know that. 2.3s 0-60 and a fancy touch screen may wear off if the rear of the story isn't great.
 
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Did anyone else think that this read like a rant or am I just being bloody-minded? I do wonder what the circumstances of the author's departure from VAG were. All cars have been rolling examples of application software for decades now. I suspect that the software required to integrate an EV with a combustion engine in any HEV is at least as sophisticated as anything you'd find in any Tesla, although Teslas do have the surface bling of a techy looking GUI. It certainly can't be that hard to build a functional BEV. Even GM has done so, if the Bolt still exists. Most of the advanced tech is in the battery pack, which is made up of supplier sourced cells. Software development also cannot be that hard when you've got decent and ever cheaper hardware to run it on, although the established manufacturers are very careful in selecting hardware that will survive the temperature extremes to which daily use vehicle components are subject. I just can't see how large engineering oriented companies would be somehow unable to match what Tesla has done.
 
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Originally Posted by UncleDave
They are talking about a centralized SW architecture to run a whole car designed to be fast, easy to build, fix, update AND be profitable. This is about way more than autopilot. They slept and drank their own cool aid. The modern day equivalent of fiddling while Rome burns. This is an acknowledgement of what guys like Sandy Munro have said all along that that existing automakers, and their mouthpieces like Bob Lutz have tried to brush off, deny, and pretend doesn't exist - the MASSIVE decade long head start Telsa has on them in the new BEV world. Except last week (even only for a while) Tesla became the worlds most valuable car company surpassing even the mighty Toyota. It's about building electric vehicles in a completely different way so that they at least have a chance to be profitable vs selling a profitable line of products that subsidizes an unprofitable (electric) line strategy that isn't going to work. It's amusing and sad they way he throws the suppliers under the bus, as though they could have, or were somehow responsible for architecting a strategy for them. UD
Tesla is only "valuable" because the stock market is a complete ponzi scheme, and stock prices have no relationship with a company's performance. Tesla has never made a penny in profit and never will. The end goal is that Musk rides it out on investor money long enough to convince someone else to buy it.
 
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The stock market is what it always has been, it didn't get different for Telsa. Performance almost always has SOME vs. no impact on a stocks value. Never is a very long time. I don't believe you or anyone else can speak for Musks end goals. He built the most valuable car company in the world (even if temporarily) He just did what almost everyone told him he couldn't. UD
 
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Originally Posted by JHZR2
You missed many of my points. Luxury cars are expensive. Some may say it's not my place to say what segments the cars are in, but the reality is that I see a 3 series, not a 5, and that's a far bigger and potentially easier market to break into, and/or to buy a toy in. Owner satisfaction I'll take with a grain of salt. Tesla is giving the owners cheap/subsidized/free electricity to drive off of, in a car with undoubtedly good performance in terms of speed, and some tech that folks want. I'd love to know how many of thee cars are leased vs owned, and what the true cost of ownership becomes as time goes on. We're not far enough in time yet to really know that. 2.3s 0-60 and a fancy touch screen may wear off if the rear of the story isn't great.
Not sure I missed your points; rather I am saying that, as an owner, I disagree with many of them. I am trying to point out what ownership is like vs. what people think it is like. Tesla is not trying to make a Beemer or a Benz. These cars are different. They are not for everybody. Speaking of lux cars, BMW, MBZ and Lexus are terrified of Tesla. This is what I am hearing from local dealerships, especially with the Model Y. Tesla is certainly taking a bunch of their sales. And my co-workers in Germany tell me the Germans love Teslas. I don't know anyone who has leased a Tesla Model 3. There is no buy out option at lease end. You have to return the car. Cost of ownership is very low as compared to an ICE lux car. Now compared to a Camry or Civic, it ain't. Tesla does not give away electricity; that is done by companies to attract talent. Some cities do as well. I understand I live in a Silicon Valley bubble; high tech is the norm, stupid money for housing, solar panels everywhere and lotsa sunshine. Again, the vast majority of charging of all EVs is done at home. People do not depend on the Super Charger network. I would not own any EV is I could not charge at home. I believe you are wrong about customer satisfaction. It is hugely important; Consumer Reports considers CS to be of top importance. Tesla owners are rabid about their cars. Why is that? Maybe we are all whack like Elon... Ha! It is a new world. I appreciate your thoughts. But according to Mr. Mertens, you are looking at it from the prior world eyes. That is the point of his article. All good. By the way, I just stopped at the local service center. If you order a Y today you might get it in September. Apparently Model Y shipments are shifting to Canada and Europe.
 
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Originally Posted by UncleDave
The stock market is what it always has been, it didn't get different for Telsa. Performance almost always has SOME vs. no impact on a stocks value. Never is a very long time. I don't believe you or anyone else can speak for Musks end goals. He built the most valuable car company in the world (even if temporarily) He just did what almost everyone told him he couldn't. UD
No, actually, the stock market used to be based around dividend paying stocks, so if the company didn't make money, neither would the investors. Now it's just entirely a ponzi scheme with no bearing on reality, and every company is worth whatever people say it's worth. It's how a company like Tesla, which has never made a profit, can somehow be valued so highly.
 
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Originally Posted by littlehulkster
Originally Posted by UncleDave
The stock market is what it always has been, it didn't get different for Telsa. Performance almost always has SOME vs. no impact on a stocks value. Never is a very long time. I don't believe you or anyone else can speak for Musks end goals. He built the most valuable car company in the world (even if temporarily) He just did what almost everyone told him he couldn't. UD
No, actually, the stock market used to be based around dividend paying stocks, so if the company didn't make money, neither would the investors. Now it's just entirely a ponzi scheme with no bearing on reality, and every company is worth whatever people say it's worth. It's how a company like Tesla, which has never made a profit, can somehow be valued so highly.
It isn't nearly that simple. Wall street value has always been based on a myriad of things a large part being potential future earning or stock growth - which is why when profitable companies report they will tank going forward so does their value. If its so simple as to create the worlds most valuable car company via a ponzi scheme why isn't everyone doing it? UD
 
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Originally Posted by UncleDave
Originally Posted by littlehulkster
Originally Posted by UncleDave
The stock market is what it always has been, it didn't get different for Telsa. Performance almost always has SOME vs. no impact on a stocks value. Never is a very long time. I don't believe you or anyone else can speak for Musks end goals. He built the most valuable car company in the world (even if temporarily) He just did what almost everyone told him he couldn't. UD
No, actually, the stock market used to be based around dividend paying stocks, so if the company didn't make money, neither would the investors. Now it's just entirely a ponzi scheme with no bearing on reality, and every company is worth whatever people say it's worth. It's how a company like Tesla, which has never made a profit, can somehow be valued so highly.
It isn't nearly that simple. Wall street value has always been based on a myriad of things a large part being potential future earning or stock growth - which is why when profitable companies report they will tank going forward so does their value. If its so simple as to create the worlds most valuable car company via a ponzi scheme why isn't everyone doing it? UD
Tesla isn't the largest car company though, not even close. They don't produce the most cars, they don't sell the most cars, and they certainly don't make the most money. They are, in reality, a small niche automaker. Toyota sold more than double the number of cars last year as Tesla has every year in it's entire history combined. Volvo, an automaker that's teetered on the edge of oblivion for over a decade now, sold nearly 10x as many cars as Tesla did in 2019. Mitsubishi almost doubled Tesla's US sales, and Mitsubishi is on the verge of leaving the auto industry. Tesla also lost money, again, as they have every year they've existed. So no, they are in no way shape or form the largest automaker, nor even a large one. They are highly valued only because the stock market as it exists today is a pump and dump scheme, and investors manipulate stocks for their own profit, with no bearing on the company's performance or long term health.
 
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I never said largest, or made the most cars, or the most money. I said most valuable. UD

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On that valuation table Ford looks interesting. If I was a 100k spender to buy wheels to roll me around in I would probably buy a Corvette and some kind of nice 30k car, gas maybe hybrid. Or a very nice loaded truck and a 30k nice car. I wouldn't be worrying about my gas bill.
 
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Originally Posted by UncleDave
Their value is as real as anyones on the exchange. Your(or my) feelings do not change this. UD
You're missing the point then, because no one's value is actually real on an exchange that's nothing but a giant ponzi scheme.
 
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On the stock market subject, for some time now, computers have had a large part in market volatility. Trading programs have far more influence than humans. It's just the way it is. Sometimes it makes no sense and leaves many investors scratching their heads. One only has to look at TSLA ratios and profitability to really get a head scratching example. https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=TSLA
 
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Originally Posted by Farnsworth
On that valuation table Ford looks interesting. If I was a 100k spender to buy wheels to roll me around in I would probably buy a Corvette and some kind of nice 30k car, gas maybe hybrid. Or a very nice loaded truck and a 30k nice car. I wouldn't be worrying about my gas bill.
A used one maybe - not a c8 you won't. $25,000 markup: Ken Garff Chevrolet of American Fork, Utah. MSRP $84,455, asking price $109,455. $20,000 markup: Mid-State Chevrolet & Buick of Sutton, West Virginia. MSRP $78,020, asking price $98,020. $18,103 markup: New Smyrna Beach Chevrolet in Florida. MSRP $90,515, asking price $108,618. $10,000 markups on three cars: Victorville Chevrolet in California. $10,000 markup: Beaver Chevrolet in Jacksonville, Florida. MSRP $94,525, asking price $104,525. Some guys whined endlessly about not being able to get the 35K tesla (that ultimate became available they still didnt buy) Same guys say nothing about the 59K vette that doesn't exist. UD
 
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Originally Posted by littlehulkster
Originally Posted by UncleDave
Their value is as real as anyones on the exchange. Your(or my) feelings do not change this. UD
You're missing the point then, because no one's value is actually real on an exchange that's nothing but a giant ponzi scheme.
This is a ridiculous statement - just because the value changes it does not make the value any less real. If I buy at one price and sell at another price my profit or loss is VERY real and I can make it very tangible. How much more real could it be then? This is real value and real money.
 
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Originally Posted by Blueskies123
It is funny how so many people cannot see the future. All those people that owned horses in the early part of the century just could not get their head around horseless carriages.
It's a different argument though. For cars vs. horses there was immediately a huge advantage in traveling range and speed. With electric cars that isn't the case yet. We can't legally drive them any faster on public roads, and the range is less than with gas powered vehicles.
 
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