It's not necessarily a matter of not seeing the future. It's more of a matter of knowing the technologies related to power generation, distribution, and especially storage, inside and out. And that includes with very complex control systems, and far more sources and loads than a Tesla. And understanding the practical downsides to implementing the technology. Understanding that it is far beyond controls. That the actual physics of the situation is a major factor here which is brushed under if we are going to relegate everything to code and controls.
Originally Posted by Blueskies123
It is funny how so many people cannot see the future. All those people that owned horses in the early part of the century just could not get their head around horseless carriages.
You missed many of my points. Luxury cars are expensive. Some may say it's not my place to say what segments the cars are in, but the reality is that I see a 3 series, not a 5, and that's a far bigger and potentially easier market to break into, and/or to buy a toy in. Did Tesla have a backlog of orders? I seem to remember that back when they were taking $100 from every willing person. The other established cars are bound to have just a more normal cycle of lease, damage, age, and general desire for updating. Two different market phenomena at play, imo. You made my case regarding free and subsidized electricity. When the real costs come to bite, the EV romance may fall a bit. 75 mile commutes are different than 300 mile there and back day or overnight trips. What one can do with no gas station stops now becomes a much bigger consideration. Hotel doesn't have a plug? Now I'm wasting more time. I think we both agree that long distance use isn't the ev forte, but there are intermediate distances where imo I can't make a case for the purchase of one personally. Not when I can get 700-800 miles on a tank of RUG in my hybrid. I called sw updates folly because as is only as good as what is designed in. I mentioned over design practices for batteries, and then eating into margin as data allows. That is a form of condition based "maintenance", for lack of better terms. But it doesn't change physics. My point about sw is that an update for a mechanical-electrical system doesn't change the rules of physics. The point about Apple was that they were blaming their supplier (intel) for slowing down their cycle. That's where the original article makes sense to me, and again, I'm an advocate for organic growth of knowledge in companies. If Tesla does that better than anyone else, then great. No arguments from me. Owner satisfaction I'll take with a grain of salt. Tesla is giving the owners cheap/subsidized/free electricity to drive off of, in a car with undoubtedly good performance in terms of speed, and some tech that folks want. I'd love to know how many of thee cars are leased vs owned, and what the true cost of ownership becomes as time goes on. We're not far enough in time yet to really know that. 2.3s 0-60 and a fancy touch screen may wear off if the rear of the story isn't great.
Originally Posted by JeffKeryk
Many of your points do not reflect the reality of owning a Tesla or Tesla's winning strategies. Yes, a Tesla is a luxury, expensive car. Name a luxury car that is not expensive or is not a toy. The S and X are not big sellers; the 3 and new Y are and will be. This was Musk's strategy from the beginning. Even during the pandemic, Tesla is making money and selling more cars than many. Not on the $75K and up cars... You talk about charging times. The vast majority of owners charge at home; you spend much more time overall at a gas station. In Silicon Valley, many people commute 75 to 150 miles daily. They love the Tesla because they charge at work (free or subsidized), get the computer lane, etc. Of course, long trips are not any ECs strong point. Personally, I would rather fly and have other vehicles. There are all kinds of updates; some are gimmicky others are important. Safety and ease of use features are examples. The Model 3 is one of the safest cars on the road. Calling SW update folly is incorrect; it is the future. And it is Tesla strong point. Tesla's real world data capture is a huge asset. You compare the Model 3 to other lux cars. After driving the Model 3 and getting into the beautiful GS, I find the GS interior cluttered and confusing. You mention Apple switching to ARM RISC architecture. Intel is behind on their chip software vs RISC. Same as every other carmaker vs Tesla. Except more so. Tesla's market cap reflects investor's confidence in them as a company. I would not say that tells us nothing. 2 points: The Model 3 is #1 in owner satisfaction; only mighty Porsche is even close. Every major car company is building EVs. Why? Tesla has set the mark pretty darn high. Heck, the incredible Model S is 10 years old.