Storm to watch in the next few days.

[alarmguy]

The

The Cat scale has been manipulated. Since its inception the Cat scale was based on sustained winds, now its at scaled verbally with "up to" or "gusts to" wind speeds. Much like the media now won't tell you (or barely tells you) the real temp, all they talk about is the "feels like" heat index temps.

This storm will not be a Harvey. Harvey stalled out and sat over the greater Houston area for four days dropping epic amounts of rain. (50+ inches at my house). This storm is a very fast mover. It will hit someone hard but will quickly move away.

Thank you, glad I am not the only one. it's for our new pop tart culture. Got to LOVE that "feels like" temperature. Sometimes it hard to actually find out what the real temperature is if you watch those clowns on TV.
Yeah, everything in media is potentially, possibly, could have and every other use of words like them. Then I run into people who actually think like, its 106 degrees out when its 94 *LOL* ohhh and lets not get into wind chill, that one drives me nuts. IN the winter I say to my wife, so I am outside standing out of the wind, now what is the temperature??>?!!!! *LOL*

Ill tell ya, we are all doomed *LOL*

This is not to say hurricanes are not serious but it does dumb down the people by insinuating something is worse then it is because what happens is, once something truly is worse then it is, people are not prepared because they dont believe it.

 

[gfh77665]

Our Houston TV weather people are pathetic. They lecture you like a child. Scolding you DON'T leave home without your umbrella! DO NOT go outside, its too hot! STAY OFF the roads. Sorry Houston TV, I don't need your permission to live my life the way I want. Then, they hype and whine to the extreme. Every day its TOO-something. Too hot, too cold, too windy, too dry, too humid, etc. All summer they have purposely obscured the actual temp. They push the "feels like" temps in large fonts across the screen, then maybe at the very last moment they finally show the real temp in small font for 1-2 seconds just before the forecast ends. Thats because "feels like" 103 looks way worse than an actual 92. Every hurricane they tell us "its really worse than the cat it really is. If a Cat 1 hits, they are going to tell us it really has effects like a cat 3 or whatever. I am so sick of their daily manipulation.

 

[alarmguy]

Our Houston TV weather people are pathetic. They lecture you like a child. Scolding you DON'T leave home without your umbrella! DO NOT go outside, its too hot! STAY OFF the roads. Sorry Houston TV, I don't need your permission to live my life the way I want. Then, they hype and whine to the extreme. Every day its TOO-something. Too hot, too cold, too windy, too dry, too humid, etc. All summer they have purposely obscured the actual temp. They push the "feels like" temps in large fonts across the screen, then maybe at the very last moment they finally show the real temp in small font for 1-2 seconds just before the forecast ends. Thats because "feels like" 103 looks way worse than an actual 92. Every hurricane they tell us "its really worse than the cat it really is. If a Cat 1 hits, they are going to tell us it really has effects like a cat 3 or whatever. I am so sick of their daily manipulation.

If that isnt enough it has led to this now. But I do understand, still it drives me nuts because common sense is gone unless a public figure warns them. We live on the Carolina Coast, I have been a water person my whole life, from the time I could walk my parents had me in swim lessons having grown up on Long Island.
Every freaking day now I hear about "Undertow" warnings. We have green flags, yellow flags, red flags and that is all fine but even NOAA treats this as an "extreme event" !!! I cant take it! *LOL*
You know when you go to NOAA.GOV if there is an extreme thunderstorm warning etc. Well now you will see extreme weather event, so you click on it to learn there is a strong undertow today ! Thats like couple times a week sometimes! I am not making lite of this but something is wrong, common sense gosh so many people got in trouble at the beaches this year that I cant understand how other than going out further than they should if they cant handle it.

A few days ago there was a major event at a beach. Rescue Trucks, jet skis, police the whole shooting match. There was a guy far off the beach swimming quite some distance toward the fishing piers, because he was out there swimming people called rescue, turned out the guy was fine, he was swimming (and REALLY good) wearing fins AND fins on his hand. I dont have the answer, my wife thinks I am too critical, maybe I am. But I am waiting for the decade where public servants tell me I can't go swimming because the water is too rough to do so.

 

[Dave Hess]

The storm in the Caribbean has the potential to be like Hurricane Micheal …

I am seeing a very, very resilient circulation despite higher wind shear aloft. Hurricane Micheal and Harvey had the same exact features.

IF and this is the big IF… The future forecast models are correct in forecasting lower upper level wind shear in the next 4 days is right… This storm could potentially be a very, very strong hurricane.

Time will tell but it does look to be a potential strong hurricane.

Keep up the excellent coverage and analysis.

Unfortunately the very warm water will supercharge this storm.

 

[b_b]

Keep up the excellent coverage and analysis.

Unfortunately the very warm water will supercharge this storm.

I thought that about Francine, but once it land it fizzled.

 

[LenZee]

One would think it is hurricane season,, best to stock up on supplies and plan. but then that is me.

Fresh gas is preferrable.

 

[alarmguy]

Sounds like it’s starting to come together, it will be interesting for sure I would think the fast-forward motion as forecast so far saying it will bring strong ones inland at the same time that would lessen the tidal impact a little bit

5 PM Tuesday NHC excerpt on tropical storm, Helene

“
Warm sea surface temperatures, decreasing shear, and strong
upper-level divergence are likely to foster Helene's strengthening
while it moves across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and eastern
Gulf of Mexico. The statistical-dynamical SHIPS/LGEM models, as
well as the regional hurricane models, continue to show Helene
reaching major hurricane intensity while over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico, and that continues to be shown in the NHC forecast. Helene
could maintain that level of intensity until it reaches the Gulf
coast of Florida.

Of equal importance to the forecast intensity is Helene's forecast
size. Helene's forecast radii are at the 90th percentile of
major hurricane size at similar latitudes, and therefore storm
surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will likely extend well
away from the center and outside the forecast cone, particularly on
the east side. In addition, the fast forward speed while it crosses
the coast will likely result in farther inland penetration of strong
winds over parts of the southeastern United States after landfall.”

 

[bbhero]

I will say this again.

It’s the intensity forecasting that is the biggest weak point. Rapid deepening and then rapid weakening phases are what gives the computer models the highest trouble.

Look at Hurricane Otto in the eastern Pacific… They had that being a weak category 1 in 24-36 hours ahead of time. It rapidly deepened into a category 5…

Hurricane Wilma in 2005 went from a 75 mph hurricane into a 180 mph hurricane with a record low barometric pressure of 878 mB in just 16 hours. The forecast models had that being a category 3 48-60 hours later.

If we see a pinhole small eye development with this storm in the next 12-24 hours.. Could be quite a show.

Time will tell what transpires.

 

[wavinwayne]

Hopefully it will dump some rain where I live in Northeast AL. We're in a bad drought and didn't get any rain from the last tropical system a couple of weeks ago.

 

[ARCOgraphite]

Latest snip of satellite imaging this morning, NOAA NEDIS / GOES EAST

 

[ARCOgraphite]

IR Mid-Level Water Vapor

GREEN is approx -75deg C, YELLOW is dry air approx -15deg C

 

[alarmguy]

and so, just born is Hurricane Helene 10AM CDT Wed Sept 25th.

 

[PontiacHO]

and so, just born is Hurricane Helene 10AM CDT Wed Sept 25th.

Hopefully not similar to the storm that caused the 1940 floods in the North Carolina mountains. It is forecasted to hook west as it enters NC.

 

[alarmguy]

Hopefully not similar to the storm that caused the 1940 floods in the North Carolina mountains. It is forecasted to hook west as it enters NC.

You know, it's a bit premature however so far they are projected to get up to around 12 inches of rain. Possibly more and of course less but looks like 12 is a solid number so far, who knows.

The 1940s great flood had similar rainfall. I am unsure conditions up there today but the 1940 storm followed a brutally wet August before the storm arrived, ground was saturated.
Anyway, I think it bears concern for that area. I knows the area pretty well, been up there every summer well over a decade on our motorcycle. It will be interesting how the forecast updates by tonight and tomorrow.

PS, not sure of your screen name but when I was 17 or 18 I had a 67 GTO with a factory 400 H/O engine

 

[alarmguy]

Well @bbhero you OP is starting to look like it is going to come true.

NHC is now saying 90% chance of reaching category 4 and will not discount stronger before landfall.
Interesting storm to watch, it’s moving rapidly so maybe it won’t make it much past four before hitting land, but it certainly going to punch into the land pretty deeply.

Part of the Wednesday 4 PM Eastern standard time NHC discussion

“ Some of the
Rapid Intensification (RI) indices, particular DTOPS, respond to
this environment by indicating at least a 90 percent chance of a
35-kt increase in intensity over the next 24 hours. The NHC
intensity forecast now shows an intensity of 115 kt (Category 4) at
24 hours, which is mirrored by several of the regional hurricane
models and the SHIPS guidance. It should be noted that additional
strengthening is possible beyond 24 hours before Helene makes
landfall Thursday evening.”

 

[PontiacHO]

You know, it's a bit premature however so far they are projected to get up to around 12 inches of rain. Possibly more and of course less but looks like 12 is a solid number so far, who knows.
View attachment 242160

The 1940s great flood had similar rainfall. I am unsure conditions up there today but the 1940 storm followed a brutally wet August before the storm arrived, ground was saturated.
Anyway, I think it bears concern for that area. I knows the area pretty well, been up there every summer well over a decade on our motorcycle. It will be interesting how the forecast updates by tonight and tomorrow.

PS, not sure of your screen name but when I was 17 or 18 I had a 67 GTO with a factory 400 H/O engine

My family is from Ashe County NC. Stories of home floating down the New River….
I has a 1968 Firebird 350 HO when I was a teen. An oak tree got in the way one night in 1976. God does protect foolish people. I’m living proof. Prayers for all dealing with the storm.

 

[Dave Hess]

I went through Hurricane Andrew in 1992 and not fun.

You either immediately get the heck out of town before it hits….. or hunker down and prepare for the next 2-3 weeks being on your own with no electricity. You find out who your neighbors really are.

Now they are saying it might be a Cat 4 hurricane.
Luckily I-10 highway runs East and West, people can flee if they decide to get out now and head to Pensacola or Jacksonville.

*** Edit ***
Hurricane Beryl caused lots of power outages in the Houston area and it was only a Cat 1.

 

[alarmguy]

….
I has a 1968 Firebird 350 HO when I was a teen. An oak tree got in the way one night in 1976. God does protect foolish people. I’m living proof.

my brother had a 69 AMC javelin worked in every way possible, Mickey Thompson, tires ladder bars. The engine was built by a guy who built funny cars. I remember there was a chains in the engine compartment along with the motor mounts

He was a bit wilder than me and one night he told our daughter sitting at the table that he doesn’t even know how he’s alive today but he is. I don’t know how he is either.

That was back in the early 1970s
Your tree story reminded me of his story
One night a telephone pole got in his way. Besides completely destroying the car, he was sued by the electric company and had to pay for the telephone pole and associated costs

 

[PontiacHO]

my brother had a 69 AMC javelin worked in every way possible, Mickey Thompson, tires ladder bars. The engine was built by a guy who built funny cars. I remember there was a chains in the engine compartment along with the motor mounts

He was a bit wilder than me and one night he told our daughter sitting at the table that he doesn’t even know how he’s alive today but he is. I don’t know how he is either.

That was back in the early 1970s
Your tree story reminded me of his story
One night a telephone pole got in his way. Besides completely destroying the car, he was sued by the electric company and had to pay for the telephone pole and associated costs

Those AMC Javelins were the real deal. Light car and a powerful engine made those cars rockets. Yes those chains were needed for the 7k RPM launch. I’m still a Pontiac guy. 1975 era vs 2024 era. Silly I reckon!,

 

[alarmguy]

Those AMC Javelins were the real deal. Light car and a powerful engine made those cars rockets. Yes those chains were needed for the 7k RPM launch. I’m still a Pontiac guy. 1975 era vs 2024 era. Silly I reckon!,

View attachment 242197

View attachment 242198

Nice!