Just a heads up for all interests above Wilmington NC northward...
Keep an eye on the weather.... Florence will be heading westward towards the Atlantic coast in the coming days..
The possibility of land interaction is possible by mid week next week. The longwave trough moving in this upcoming weekend will largely miss the hurricane. As that trough moves north and east a area of high pressure will build north and east around Nova Scotia and then south westward towards New England. Question remains how strong that high pressure build up too and it's impact upon the storm's track. There's even the possibility that it could even cause the storm to make a complete loop in the area off the northeast Atlantic coast. Or it could just push the storm on a NW heading causing landfall in North Carolina just like what happened with Hurricane Isabel in 2003. With Isabel the hurricane maintained a steady NW heading well after landfall. Hurricane Hugo in 1989 had the same pattern and path has well... Even a possibility of a Superstorm Sandy track could happen has well.... The other possibilities include a track of the storm skirting the coastline a bit with some effects then making a northeast turn followed by a complete loop off the coast..
Of note... Hurricane track history is that track guidance is off typically 300 NM 5 days out ahead...
However.. with Hurricane Isabel the models were remarkably accurate 5 days out.. The clue in that case was the remarkable run to run consistency of the models from day 7 until landfall. Granted... This was an anomaly. The next 2-3 days will make the outlook clearer. Which would put us at the day 5 mark. At which time we will see how much potential influence the high pressure off the northeast Atlantic will have upon this storms track.
The concern I have is the noticeable lack of an approaching longwave trough at the day 6-9 time frame. The typical semi circle hurricane tracks observed in the Atlantic basin are due to the typical pattern of a area of high pressure near Bermuda and an approaching cold front/ longwave trough from the West. The hurricanes funnel between those two features creating the normal semi circle tracks seen. In the models I've looked at... That secondary feature of an approaching front/longwave trough is not there. Which would make a Hugo,Isabel, or even Sandy track a real possibility. This possible phenomenon also has one other very nasty feature... It creates a massive pressure gradient between the blocking high pressure to the northeast and the low pressure storm to the southwest... Thus creating far higher winds observed north of the point of landfall. With that in place the water is pushed much harder as well.. That's what made Sandy so bad with water rise. Same for Isabel in my area.
The upper level steering currents in play during the day 5-9 period seem to be just that area of high pressure. With no west influence from a approaching cold front longwave trough. The lack of that normal phenomenon could be very problematic for many areas of that pattern holds true...
So, everyone north of Wilmington NC need to be watchful and mindful of what could happen. No need to be wild and crazy. Just watchful in the coming days... The cat typing this went to the store the day before Sandy made landfall and all I was 3 bananas, and a yogurt on me when I checked out. I wasn't worried at all. The store was full of people with full carts of stuff. I laughed at everyone else. I told the guy checking my stuff out that if I came in the store buying all kinds of stuff... Then it was truly a big deal worthy of being concerned about. We never lost power by the way... And everything here where I'm at was fine. Sandy made landfall north of my area and that being the case... I had no concerns at all.
Keep an eye on the weather.... Florence will be heading westward towards the Atlantic coast in the coming days..
The possibility of land interaction is possible by mid week next week. The longwave trough moving in this upcoming weekend will largely miss the hurricane. As that trough moves north and east a area of high pressure will build north and east around Nova Scotia and then south westward towards New England. Question remains how strong that high pressure build up too and it's impact upon the storm's track. There's even the possibility that it could even cause the storm to make a complete loop in the area off the northeast Atlantic coast. Or it could just push the storm on a NW heading causing landfall in North Carolina just like what happened with Hurricane Isabel in 2003. With Isabel the hurricane maintained a steady NW heading well after landfall. Hurricane Hugo in 1989 had the same pattern and path has well... Even a possibility of a Superstorm Sandy track could happen has well.... The other possibilities include a track of the storm skirting the coastline a bit with some effects then making a northeast turn followed by a complete loop off the coast..
Of note... Hurricane track history is that track guidance is off typically 300 NM 5 days out ahead...
However.. with Hurricane Isabel the models were remarkably accurate 5 days out.. The clue in that case was the remarkable run to run consistency of the models from day 7 until landfall. Granted... This was an anomaly. The next 2-3 days will make the outlook clearer. Which would put us at the day 5 mark. At which time we will see how much potential influence the high pressure off the northeast Atlantic will have upon this storms track.
The concern I have is the noticeable lack of an approaching longwave trough at the day 6-9 time frame. The typical semi circle hurricane tracks observed in the Atlantic basin are due to the typical pattern of a area of high pressure near Bermuda and an approaching cold front/ longwave trough from the West. The hurricanes funnel between those two features creating the normal semi circle tracks seen. In the models I've looked at... That secondary feature of an approaching front/longwave trough is not there. Which would make a Hugo,Isabel, or even Sandy track a real possibility. This possible phenomenon also has one other very nasty feature... It creates a massive pressure gradient between the blocking high pressure to the northeast and the low pressure storm to the southwest... Thus creating far higher winds observed north of the point of landfall. With that in place the water is pushed much harder as well.. That's what made Sandy so bad with water rise. Same for Isabel in my area.
The upper level steering currents in play during the day 5-9 period seem to be just that area of high pressure. With no west influence from a approaching cold front longwave trough. The lack of that normal phenomenon could be very problematic for many areas of that pattern holds true...
So, everyone north of Wilmington NC need to be watchful and mindful of what could happen. No need to be wild and crazy. Just watchful in the coming days... The cat typing this went to the store the day before Sandy made landfall and all I was 3 bananas, and a yogurt on me when I checked out. I wasn't worried at all. The store was full of people with full carts of stuff. I laughed at everyone else. I told the guy checking my stuff out that if I came in the store buying all kinds of stuff... Then it was truly a big deal worthy of being concerned about. We never lost power by the way... And everything here where I'm at was fine. Sandy made landfall north of my area and that being the case... I had no concerns at all.