Atlantic coast

Status
Not open for further replies.
Joined
Mar 20, 2015
Messages
11,465
Location
Virginia
Just a heads up for all interests above Wilmington NC northward...

Keep an eye on the weather.... Florence will be heading westward towards the Atlantic coast in the coming days..

The possibility of land interaction is possible by mid week next week. The longwave trough moving in this upcoming weekend will largely miss the hurricane. As that trough moves north and east a area of high pressure will build north and east around Nova Scotia and then south westward towards New England. Question remains how strong that high pressure build up too and it's impact upon the storm's track. There's even the possibility that it could even cause the storm to make a complete loop in the area off the northeast Atlantic coast. Or it could just push the storm on a NW heading causing landfall in North Carolina just like what happened with Hurricane Isabel in 2003. With Isabel the hurricane maintained a steady NW heading well after landfall. Hurricane Hugo in 1989 had the same pattern and path has well... Even a possibility of a Superstorm Sandy track could happen has well.... The other possibilities include a track of the storm skirting the coastline a bit with some effects then making a northeast turn followed by a complete loop off the coast..


Of note... Hurricane track history is that track guidance is off typically 300 NM 5 days out ahead...

However.. with Hurricane Isabel the models were remarkably accurate 5 days out.. The clue in that case was the remarkable run to run consistency of the models from day 7 until landfall. Granted... This was an anomaly. The next 2-3 days will make the outlook clearer. Which would put us at the day 5 mark. At which time we will see how much potential influence the high pressure off the northeast Atlantic will have upon this storms track.

The concern I have is the noticeable lack of an approaching longwave trough at the day 6-9 time frame. The typical semi circle hurricane tracks observed in the Atlantic basin are due to the typical pattern of a area of high pressure near Bermuda and an approaching cold front/ longwave trough from the West. The hurricanes funnel between those two features creating the normal semi circle tracks seen. In the models I've looked at... That secondary feature of an approaching front/longwave trough is not there. Which would make a Hugo,Isabel, or even Sandy track a real possibility. This possible phenomenon also has one other very nasty feature... It creates a massive pressure gradient between the blocking high pressure to the northeast and the low pressure storm to the southwest... Thus creating far higher winds observed north of the point of landfall. With that in place the water is pushed much harder as well.. That's what made Sandy so bad with water rise. Same for Isabel in my area.

The upper level steering currents in play during the day 5-9 period seem to be just that area of high pressure. With no west influence from a approaching cold front longwave trough. The lack of that normal phenomenon could be very problematic for many areas of that pattern holds true...


So, everyone north of Wilmington NC need to be watchful and mindful of what could happen. No need to be wild and crazy. Just watchful in the coming days... The cat typing this went to the store the day before Sandy made landfall and all I was 3 bananas, and a yogurt on me when I checked out. I wasn't worried at all. The store was full of people with full carts of stuff. I laughed at everyone else. I told the guy checking my stuff out that if I came in the store buying all kinds of stuff... Then it was truly a big deal worthy of being concerned about. We never lost power by the way... And everything here where I'm at was fine. Sandy made landfall north of my area and that being the case... I had no concerns at all.
 
The Euro and GFS models, are currently not as far apart from each other as they usually are a week out, and both have Florence Doing a loop offshore of NJ 8 days out as a huge system with a giant windfield. Though the euro has it hitting the OBX and riding the coast north before pulling off the Delmarva, and the GFS keeps it offshore with no landfall.

The Euro model predicted Sandy's turn first, days before the GFS and other models agreed

Either way, weather models a week out are not really dependable.

When i was an East coast surfer, the hurricane season was eagerly anticipated, and I have many great memories of their groundswell bounty.

I rode some tropical generated swell today, From Olivia, but Olivia sent a tiny fraction of swell to the north, compared to what she sent and is sending west as she is moving west. They missed the intensity forecast of Olivia by a huge degree. If it stuck to their intensity forecast there would have been no swell reaching S california.

Flo, will be moving at the East coast for a thousand miles, riding atop of the swell it has generated, and with that High pressure to the north, it will be have a 'previously agitated sea state, to grab onto and further magnify the swells.

Both The Euro and GFS tracks are depiciting a major swell event.

I do not think any part of the east coast should think themselves safe from this one at ths point.

Even if it remains offshore, there will be siginificant coastal flooding, just from the huge easterly wind and ground swells, along with onshore winds piling up water along the coast and in the back bays each successive high tide and allowing les to drain.

the Halloweeen storm of 91, 'the perfect storm', I recall sunny skies light onshore winds and several feet of water on the barrier island's roads, and the swell was so large it was difficult to even esitmate just how big it was, as there was nothing for a size reference, but for the occassional telephone pole or staircase drifting in the current. Pre jet skis there would have been no way to paddle out through it at its peak.
 
What's definite is that there will be fearmongering and tv/social media trying to spook everyone.

Within a day of Sandy we had nearly every supply necessary, minus gasoline. Doesn't mean there wasn't damage and big issues, and not playing down the disasters from storms like these (was in the Caribbean between Irma and Maria, then two weeks after Maria - I get what real disaster and limited/no logistics and supply looks like - we have it very easy here for the most part). It's always a good time to prepare and sure up things that might be of concern...

But we're far enough out that NWS doesn't provide paths. Newsweek/Stormvista shows the latest with most traces coming up the Chesapeake or Delaware bays. Might make for a lousy beach weekend for us... bummer.

Watching this one with interest.
 
This site shows 9 days out, and one can toggle betwen the ECMWF( euro model) and the GFS on the lower right:

https://www.windy.com/?28.960,-60.029,5

I do not believe they updated it since the latest Euro model run came out, as it apparently shows a more southward Bias.

The Category 6 weather blog has a bunch of Wishcasters / amateur meterologists that can post some interesting observations, and wait up late at night for the latest model run to come out..

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6

Agreed the media will be going on a Flo streak for ratings and 'likes', and fuel prices will start going up.

This site has Video updates posted, when required, with much more indepth coverage of the influencing variables.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
 
I will say that based upon climatological history... This system will not be a problem south of Wilmington NC...

The upper atmosphere set up is such that it will be a north of NC/SC border storm. The high pressure building off Nova Scotia will not drive this storm south that far...

It may well not be a problem anywhere on the coast has far as landfall goes... But the chance is there..

As far as forecast models go.... Yes I have looked at literally 1000s of computer model runs... I have used the models to make forecasts in all seasons for over 14 years. In fact this past winter with that massive winter storm that formed in the north Bahamas... I figured that track out very well. And yes from day 5+ the models are not always the best with fine details in the forecast.. Those fine details can make a HUGE difference in perceptible weather conditions. This is especially true in winter weather forecasting.

But... Those models are typically pretty good at predicting the longwave pattern from day 5-12...

And that's what is disconcerting here... The lack of a approaching upper level trough from the West at day 5,6,7,8,9 is of serious note. The models not depicting this makes the circumstance a lot more interesting. The path of this system is likely to be predicated upon how strong the high pressure ridge is off to the northeast of the system. If it becomes strong enough... Isabel path is in play. Weak enough... It comes towards the coast and does not make landfall and stays just off the coast with possibly little major impacts other than very high surf..


I am just saying that the overall longwave pattern is making this a possibly interesting event. It's time now for interests along the Atlantic coast to stay aware of their forecast.

No need to buy 10 cases of water and 12 loaves of bread just yet
smile.gif
 
Last edited:
I agree JHZR2.

The sky is falling people will be out in full force on TV and other media.

I think back to Hurricane Irene.... Made to be a big deal in my area... Really wasn't hardly nothing at all. And I wasn't concerned at all with that storm.

Isabel though was the real deal... People without power for 2-3 weeks
And that was commonplace in my area and Richmond and even northern Va. Trees fallen through homes... That was very common has well. That storm was legit in my area. Because the upper level air set up was has bad has it could be. The same was true for people north of where Sandy made landfall. The squeezing of pressure gradient between the high pressure to the northeast and the hurricane to the southwest made for worst case scenario in NJ and New York.
 
Originally Posted by bbhero

Just a heads up for all interests above Wilmington NC northward...

Keep an eye on the weather.... Florence will be heading westward towards the Atlantic coast in the coming days..




You dont need to keep an eye on the weather, as exciting as it is, its 1000's of miles away and 9+ days away from any possible threat, but the news stations need to make money and generate ad revenue.

Trust me, now a days, if ANY storm is a threat to you, you will hear about it, its become so bad, this one isnt even a threat and we are talking about it.
But yes, its fun.

:eek:)
 
Last edited:
Fun I agree.


Concerned big-time... I'm not. At this point...

But does this pattern look familiar... And potentially not good ... Absolutely..

I am not a total fool at this. . I have observed weather in my area and nationwide for quote a long time.

Again.. and this is why it is worth repeating... It's the longwave pattern that is of note here. The statistical and numerical models are quite good at forecasting the pattern from day 5-12.... How do I know that?? From looking at 1000s of those models for +15 years.

Small differences or disturbances in the pattern can make a huge difference in sensible weather. No doubt in that.

Yes... Even day 5 the models are off by an average of 300 nautical miles... Extrapolated out to day 7-8 it could be has much as 600-700 maybe 900 miles off.

That all is very true.

But yet again... The over upper level pattern is conducive for a interaction between this storm and the coastline.

I've seen this similar pattern before.... September 2003. Where the only upper level steering agent was a blocking area of high pressure building off the coast of Nova Scotia. And guess what... The models correctly depicted this longwave upper level pattern from day 10 all the way until that system made landfall.


I'm not out buying 150 gallons of gasoline. I'm not buying 10 cases of water or lots of bread. That would be dumb
smile.gif


This will be interesting...
 
Well.... Looks like Wilmington NC to Morehead City is a possible landing point for this storm.

Of note... North and east where the center of circulation makes landfall will be the worst weather observed. The blocking high pressure to the northeast and the low pressure off the hurricane will create a massive pressure gradient. Leading to intensifying the winds north and east where the center contacts land.

Rainfall totals are going to be of biblical proportions.... In NC and parts of Va. I believe there are places that will see 20 plus inches of rainfall in these areas. With potential for 30 inches possible in places... The freshwater flooding potential is off the charts for many areas in eastern NC and parts of southeast Va. These areas are 8 to has much has 20 inches above normal rainfall for the year to date... That means the ground is saturated in many of these areas already. Case and point... Near me in New Kent county, Henrico and Charles City county... There have been several events this year where those areas have seen 7-10 inches of rain in just one event.. And they got that 7-10 inches of rainfall in just 3-4 hours of time...Cape Hatteras is almost 24 inches above average for the year to date...

The computer models are not the best at greatly unusual circumstance forecasting... Hurricane Harvey demonstrated this.... When that storm stalled out it leading to 30-50+ inches of rainfall.. The computer models could not forecast that... Did they forecast a lot of rain... Sure. On the order of 18-24 inches of rain was forecasted. Which is whole bunch of rain. No doubt. BUT no where near what eventually happened. This set up with Hurricane Florence is likely to be the same has Harvey... A stalled out storm that was a category 4 at landfall... Leading to unbelievable amounts of rain. Places that never had seen flooding even with Hurricane Floyd.. may well see freshwater flooding this time around in NC and Va. Remember Hurricane Floyd dropped 16-20 of rain in NC and into Va. This system will quite likely exceed those amounts by a large margin...
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top