- Joined
- May 28, 2014
- Messages
- 2,515
I've got relatives around Cocoa Florida. They don't seem to concerned about the hurricane.
Storm to watch in the next few days.
- Thread starter bbhero
- Start date
We're projected to get 5-10''inchs of rain with some sustained winds of 50-70mph...I anticipate losing power and spending a lot a quality time with my family!
Tv watchers are the most dumbed down people on the planet. I find Tv offensive.
Yes sir…
That early circulation maintaining a strong low level vorticity structure is a possible early indicator of a stronger storm potential.
And if that storm come across a 1) warm deep layer of sea water greater than 29 degrees Celsius 2) the upper level wind shear is less than 10 knots 3) the low and mid level atmosphere is moisture rich 4) the storm has a divergent atmospheric flow above it to help assist in it’s ventilation…
Watch out… Amazingly rapid intensification can happen.
Satellite imagery showing what appears to be a rather small eye forming….
If that eye stays small…. Whoa boy.
Look up what happened with Hurricane Wilma in 2005.
The next 12 hours it will be interesting to watch the genesis of this storm.
If that eye stays small…. Whoa boy.
Look up what happened with Hurricane Wilma in 2005.
The next 12 hours it will be interesting to watch the genesis of this storm.
Last I looked they're still expecting strong tropical storm winds up in my area. That's going to make things interesting considering it has been raining all day. Our guys are going to be sitting on a lot of downed trees today and I'm sure most of the county will lose power.
Usually doesn't take a lot of wind and some soggy ground for all the pines to start falling on everything.
Usually doesn't take a lot of wind and some soggy ground for all the pines to start falling on everything.
As of 4am forecasters having an issue with lack of a clear defined eyeball. Keeping in mind it is still a big hurricane but I think the discussion at the NHC is related to how much it will intensify. Too soon to say but the mention of a CAT 4 has been dropped for now. They still expect it to get stronger but too soon to predict how much so until it starts it trek across the super warm waters.
This is the way I read it as far as NHC @4AM
(NHC @ 4AM
"Helene is sending some mixed structural signals this morning. On
one side, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reports
that the central pressure has fallen to near 966 mb, and satellite
imagery shows the eye is trying to clear out. On another side, the
aircraft reported concentric of 16 and 32 n mi diameter,
with the maximum flight-level winds, 80 kt at 700 mb, occurring
about 50 n mi southeast of the center likely in relation to the
outer eyewall. Based on the central pressure fall and the
available data, the initial intensity is increased to 80 kt"
...
"Helene remains in an atmospheric and oceanic environment over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico that is very conducive for strengthening,
with the system forecast to traverse the Loop Current while it
remains in a moist and low-shear environment. The main restraining
factor on intensification is the current concentric eyewall status.
All of the intensity guidance continues to forecast strengthening
until landfall. Based on this, the new intensity forecast calls
for Helen to become a major hurricane in about 12 h, and additional
intensification is expected in the ensuing 6 h period or so before
landfall.
"
This is the way I read it as far as NHC @4AM
(NHC @ 4AM
"Helene is sending some mixed structural signals this morning. On
one side, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reports
that the central pressure has fallen to near 966 mb, and satellite
imagery shows the eye is trying to clear out. On another side, the
aircraft reported concentric of 16 and 32 n mi diameter,
with the maximum flight-level winds, 80 kt at 700 mb, occurring
about 50 n mi southeast of the center likely in relation to the
outer eyewall. Based on the central pressure fall and the
available data, the initial intensity is increased to 80 kt"
...
"Helene remains in an atmospheric and oceanic environment over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico that is very conducive for strengthening,
with the system forecast to traverse the Loop Current while it
remains in a moist and low-shear environment. The main restraining
factor on intensification is the current concentric eyewall status.
All of the intensity guidance continues to forecast strengthening
until landfall. Based on this, the new intensity forecast calls
for Helen to become a major hurricane in about 12 h, and additional
intensification is expected in the ensuing 6 h period or so before
landfall.
"
Last edited:
Satellite snippet from this morning
Mid-level Water Vapor
Mid-level Water Vapor
The US government does very little well, but the National Weather Service and NHC are exceptions. Why bother with anyplace else?Thank you, glad I am not the only one.it's for our new pop tart culture. Got to LOVE that "feels like" temperature. Sometimes it hard to actually find out what the real temperature is if you watch those clowns on TV.
Yeah, everything in media is potentially, possibly, could have and every other use of words like them. Then I run into people who actually think like, its 106 degrees out when its 94 *LOL* ohhh and lets not get into wind chill, that one drives me nuts. IN the winter I say to my wife, so I am outside standing out of the wind, now what is the temperature??>?!!!! *LOL*
Ill tell ya, we are all doomed *LOL*
This is not to say hurricanes are not serious but it does dumb down the people by insinuating something is worse then it is because what happens is, once something truly is worse then it is, people are not prepared because they dont believe it.
www.Weather.gov
www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Yup every other site is just speculation...NHC is the facts....and only the facts...
YES ^^^ Even as a kid and wow that was a long time ago. I had a Realistic Weather Radio (cube below) to listen to the NOAA forecasts, had it for the longest time, before the internet, was also important as I got old to listen to the marine weather forecast as we were big boaters on the South Shore of Long Island. Weather permitting I would plan early morning fishing trips well outside the bay into the ocean depending on the marine forecast. I was always into the weather and NOAA was always the place I would go to. Knowing, even more so, back then, the media was simply re-using their information to report.
I just did an image search, this was it! The antenna fully extends and the white bar was actually the bar you would push down to turn it on.
(I THINK before this my dad had a AM/FM radio plus weather band and marine bands to listen on to the charter boats to see where they were fishing.)
We do have a more modern one now, very infrequently we turn it on standby during a bad storm where we would want to know about a tornado. Though phones to that to, something tells me this would be more reliable. The problem with them now is you cant leave it on standby because now a days everything is an emergency almost ... (thunderstorms, amber alerts as an example)
Anyway, yes, NOAA to me is the read deal minus most fluff even though they have become a little more fluffy it's still very good. I just learned from my wife last night, there is a NOAA live person report, at least for this storm. Wife showed it to me yesterday, not bad, only is done when the report comes out in standard form too.
Last edited:
Wow you bring back memories. I purchased this in 1969 in Cleveland OH where I grew up. I got interested in weather in the 4th grade and stayed with it...1973 to 1985 USAF weather observer then a forecaster... Then 30 years in the NWS....Retired in 2017...
I was always interested in the weather maybe around the same age 4th grade. I used to put up outdoor thermometers at my house, first it was a Springfield with that coil in the middle from a local store, then onto alcohol tube indoor/outdoor.
As the electronics age came sometimes in my teens I guess.
I bought a Radio Shack Electronic indoor/outdoor thermometer. You had to push the button to take a reading. I assume it measured electrical resistance. I mean, this was the ULTIMATE back then, super accurate too which growing up on Long Island was cool for the wintertime, we had lots of boardline rain/snow storms meaning even the forecasters would not always know if we would be below freezing or not. I would make my own predictions based on how much dol was currently on the ground. I'll never forget a major LI ice storm, the temps were supposed to rise above freezing and I was questioning that based on the ground level cold I was reading. Well it never went above freezing and it rained all night.
Good news again for the internet, found a photo. Good god, can you imagine trying to find a consumer product like this in today's word?
Curious, are there any serious consumer calibrated temperature sensors or brands you would recommend?
Good for you following your passion.
Last edited:
The NHC is the only place I go to for information. The SPC and WPC has well.
Mike’s weather page is good too.
A whole lot of prediction is model interpretation. And that is where it gets interesting. And knowledge of climatology has well.
Mike’s weather page is good too.
A whole lot of prediction is model interpretation. And that is where it gets interesting. And knowledge of climatology has well.
Last edited:
Last night our "ever helpful" TV people displayed a graphic of a house, with a silhouette family standing next to it. Horizontal marks were displayed at 3,6,9,12,15,18, and 21 ft. TV weatherman starts to talk about pending Florida storm surge. Using 9' for example, he shows this example Florida family and whole living area of this example Florida house underwater. Whats the problem?
No one ever builds a slab house at 0.0 ft. elevation. For that graphic to have been accurate, that slab house would have had to be literally on the sand at waters edge with the Gulf waters lapping at its foundation. Mindnumbingly stupid, but our low intelligence public saw it on TV and probably <1% of the viewers even blinked. Beach homes are built elevated. Slab homes are built inland on higher ground.
No one ever builds a slab house at 0.0 ft. elevation. For that graphic to have been accurate, that slab house would have had to be literally on the sand at waters edge with the Gulf waters lapping at its foundation. Mindnumbingly stupid, but our low intelligence public saw it on TV and probably <1% of the viewers even blinked. Beach homes are built elevated. Slab homes are built inland on higher ground.
That eye being smaller and tighter is another sign of the dramatic presence drop observed today. At 941 mB it is continuing to free fall…
Which means those winds are better more efficiently transferred from higher up get down to the surface.
Which means those winds are better more efficiently transferred from higher up get down to the surface.
Officially Cat 4
The media’s go-to hype word this storm:
“UNSURVIVABLE”
“UNSURVIVABLE”
Similar threads
