Storm to watch in the next few days.

[bbhero]

The storm in the Caribbean has the potential to be like Hurricane Micheal …

I am seeing a very, very resilient circulation despite higher wind shear aloft. Hurricane Micheal and Harvey had the same exact features.

IF and this is the big IF… The future forecast models are correct in forecasting lower upper level wind shear in the next 4 days is right… This storm could potentially be a very, very strong hurricane.

Time will tell but it does look to be a potential strong hurricane.

 

[bullwinkle]

Helene-and she’s setting up to make the field goal between Cuba & the Yucatán. Which spells trouble for the whole northern & eastern Gulf Coast. It’s going to be a big one & somebody’s going to get hit.

 

[LenZee]

Time to stock up fuel and supplies if you are near the gulf region.
Or get ready to evac.

 

[SC Maintenance]

Were talking about potential tropical cyclone Nine - correct?

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[bullwinkle]

Were talking about potential tropical cyclone Nine - correct?

​

Yes-and it’s already made that status, tropical storm by the AM tomorrow. Cat 3 or stronger forecasted.

 

[bbhero]

Were talking about potential tropical cyclone Nine - correct?

​

Yep…

IF is the key here…

IF the upper level wind shear drops as the models are indicating this could be a very very strong hurricane in a very short period of time.

I saw the daytime satellite imagery today and it was impressive looking at the lower level vorticity maintaining despite the upper level wind shear. Similar to Hurricane Micheal and Harvey.

 

[ctrcbob]

Looks like it may head toward Mexico Beach Florida, which was wiped out by a hurricane a couple years ago. Pray for them.

When we moved to Florida 29 years ago,, we chose Mt. Dora where people evacuate to, not from.

 

[bbhero]

Looks like it may head toward Mexico Beach Florida, which was wiped out by a hurricane a couple years ago. Pray for them.

When we moved to Florida 29 years ago,, we chose Mt. Dora where people evacuate to, not from.

Yep… Hurricane Micheal.

 

[oldcodger]

Check out the generator, make sure the LPG tank is full, check out the chain saw, put up some drinking water, go buy some long keep groceries, and pray it goes somewhere else.
Been through two majors and several smaller, none are fun.

 

[daves87rs]

My gut says it’s going to be bad.

Hope folks pack up and get out of there!

 

[alarmguy]

Im feeling that we may make it to a 3 by landfall but not expecting more. It is a large storm so its effects will be felt over a larger area (though not hurricane intensity)
The key is as @bbhero discussed. It the high altitude shear dissipates as expected. I think (and I could be wrong) they were expecting signs of that to happen already and it hasn't but they are certain it will happen. Hence I think caught between a Cat 2 & 3
Just having fun discussing, of course way too soon. Its just it will have to ramp up fast as its getting closer and its still not an organized storm so not as easy to forecast, as of right now they have a up to 60% it turns into a hurricane and 100% chance at least a tropical storm. As far as that goes, I have no doubt it will at least hit Cat 1 and more. It just needs to start ramping up fast.

Track map show it at Cat 3, yesterday for a short time they had it as Cat 2 or less... its back to 3 (M)
Interesting. Wont affect me on the NC Coastal are except more rain and we are sick of rain here. Been raining since the July 4th weekend ended *LOL*

Disclaimer, still on my first coffee, got a late start today... Im not making "light" of this storm.

 

[Snagglefoot]

Is this one named Michael or Helene.

 

[gfh77665]

The

Yes-and it’s already made that status, tropical storm by the AM tomorrow. Cat 3 or stronger forecasted.

The Cat scale has been manipulated. Since its inception the Cat scale was based on sustained winds, now its at scaled verbally with "up to" or "gusts to" wind speeds. Much like the media now won't tell you (or barely tells you) the real temp, all they talk about is the "feels like" heat index temps.

This storm will not be a Harvey. Harvey stalled out and sat over the greater Houston area for four days dropping epic amounts of rain. (50+ inches at my house). This storm is a very fast mover. It will hit someone hard but will quickly move away.

 

[wpod]

Time to stock up fuel and supplies if you are near the gulf region.
Or get ready to evac.

One would think it is hurricane season,, best to stock up on supplies and plan. but then that is me.

 

[ARCOgraphite]

Is this one named Michael or Helene.

You are so far away from this (and so am I) but, just to be social, lol ...

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2024/tropical-storm-helene

GOES EAST satellite image :

 

[97prizm]

The storm in the Caribbean has the potential to be like Hurricane Micheal …

I am seeing a very, very resilient circulation despite higher wind shear aloft. Hurricane Micheal and Harvey had the same exact features.

IF and this is the big IF… The future forecast models are correct in forecasting lower upper level wind shear in the next 4 days is right… This storm could potentially be a very, very strong hurricane.

Time will tell but it does look to be a potential strong hurricane.

I was reading somewhere that it could be reclassified as a category 6 hurricane? I though that hurricanes only went to category 5.

 

[JRay’07]

Can you see the storm getting closer now...

 

[bbhero]

The

The Cat scale has been manipulated. Since its inception the Cat scale was based on sustained winds, now its at scaled verbally with "up to" or "gusts to" wind speeds. Much like the media now won't tell you (or barely tells you) the real temp, all they talk about is the "feels like" heat index temps.

This storm will not be a Harvey. Harvey stalled out and sat over the greater Houston area for four days dropping epic amounts of rain. (50+ inches at my house). This storm is a very fast mover. It will hit someone hard but will quickly move away.

My reference to Hurricane Harvey was related to its early satellite presentation….

While crossing the Yukatan Peninsula Harvey had an amazingly strong low level circulation that showed up extremely well in all 4 quadrants. Which led me to believe IF and IF was a big word… IF the computer models were correct in the future upper level winds 2-3 days out that storm was going to intensify extremely fast. I told my lady on that Monday evening that Harvey could easily be a cat 3 or 4 at landfall. And at the time the official forecast was only 80 mph…. I was right.

That resilience in low level vorticity structure really was impressive with Harvey. Even in unfavorable upper level wind environment it maintained its structure quite well

That’s the ONLY similarity I was making between this storm and Harvey.

I agree with you and the forecast from the NHC that this storm will move north away from the landfall area fairly quickly.

 

[thastinger]

Yep… Hurricane Micheal.

Still looks like District 9 down there.

 

[thastinger]

I was reading somewhere that it could be reclassified as a category 6 hurricane? I though that hurricanes only went to category 5.

I read that as well, looked it up and found Cat 6 starts at 192MPH...jeez, that is like a 150 mile wide tornado. I think maybe cat 6 is new for this year but I didn't find the reference for that.