stock market

[BJD2020]

how many of you are cleaning up and filling your ira and 401k's etc before end of year? i dont trust this market very much right now i have been recovering my losses slowly and slowly getting out of individual stock and selling off shares of mutual funds etc. i want to take a different approach next year hopefully all this election fiasco will be over and the economy can try to recover from this past year of doom. if that is the case i want to follow the s&p, nasdaq and russell 2000. will most likely pick up mutual funds that track the following nasdaq and russell 2000...i am already in a s&p 500 fund.

for now i am watching this market close out the 2020 calendar year and have most all my ira's parked in the money market cash reserves.. if anyone cares to share their investment strategy for 2021 and on i'd be interested in hearing so. happy holidays and god bless all.. if your faith is elsewhere, many blessings to those who believe differently.

I retired in 2014 and no longer work or have (earned income) Just Military retirement and VA Disability , So I can no longer contribute to the Roth IRA which was in TSP C fund. We were able to max it out for about 9 years. No 401k either since i no longer have earned income so IRA will just sit in TSP since i can not contribute. So in 2014 I invested in USAA mutual fund "Cornerstone fund. Then in 2019 USAA sold it to Victory Capital. ER went up considerably from USAA ER of 0.27 to Victory Capital who raised ER to 1.14. That was final straw for me .Also could never reach anyone at victory by phone and they never responded to e mail. I had heard good things about Vanguard and Fidelity and Schwab, since I could never reach anyone at Victory I decided to called Vanguard they were busy but agreed to call me back within 1 hour.. they did and I let them deal with Victory capital and transfer the fund to Vanguard. It took about 10 business days. Now I have a nice 3 fund portfolio with Vanguard (admiral funds) and they have low ER of 0.04

My dad used to always listen to a radio show called "Money Talk"with Bob Brinker and he often said that the S&P 500 stocks were a good option so Vanguard total stock market fund is about 99% vested in S&P 500. Bob Brinker always talked about hitting "critical mass" with investing which means you get 1 million in investments . Wife and I will likely never hit critical mass, since we started sort of late, but expect to make some decent gains and when we eventually tap into it for income it will be what it is at that time - or +.

60% Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund
20% Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund
20% Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund

Investment strategy is simple for us now We use a Vanguard 3fund portfolio and add to it every month . It is also a strategy that Vangurds founder Jack Bogle inspired. Several interesting books about Boglehead investment strategy and the 2, 3 ,4 and 5 fund portfolios. I do not own any individual stocks, i just like mutual funds put the $$ in and leave it alone and it does what it does for better or worse.

Currently wife and can put in about $500 per month in this fund and in about 3 years when our house is paid off and no longer have a mortgage we aim to contribute the former mortgage payment which is right now $725 probably more like $500 a month because we will have to consider property tax. Full SS age for me is age 67 if I claim SS at early age of 62 SS check would be about 1500, waiting to 67 would push it up some just over 2k as I recall, I will Probably claim SS retirement at 62 and dump most of that into the fund as well.
I think funds with S&P 500 are usually going to do well long term though one might have to ride out some rough seas from time to time. 2008 comes to mind. My TSP IRA took a big punch that year and never fully recovered till about 2013.

Daughter is 20 and just started an IRA with Fidelity and they have zero ER fees which is nice for young investers.

 

[alarmguy]

I think greed, unintentional as it may be, gets a little bit of us and why funds are a more stable investment vehicle. You can choose one based on what you would like to be invested in. Most funds never beat the index funds over the long term so you can simply stick with the major indexes and sit back and relax which is pretty much what I choose to do with my 401k. Cant pick individual stocks.

On my self guided Roth I invest in companies but all I am doing is being conservative, beating interest rates from banks, bonds ect.
I have all the money I need and not looking for get rich quick schemes but looking for a stable return on my money.

Even during the early 2019 downturn I was still in the plus because of a big holding I have in WMT which I purchased @ $97 less then 2 years ago, (Walmart) its saved the day for me, now that the market has gained all it lost its not going to perform as well as many others and that's ok, Im just looking for stability and dividends BUT Im invested in this company because of the progress and direction I see them heading. I think its still value priced IF they pull off everything they are getting into.

Then there is the speculative side of me, I got beat up with a smaller investment in some banks stocks BUT Walmart covered that for me and I think over the long term banks will be the next "stable" side up without too much risk. There are lots of left over beaten down stocks out there. Look for value.

Im not the Tesla type investor unless I got in early I wouldn't touch it. The stories of the people who have become rich out there was based on investing a small amount in speculative stocks/money you can lose, some will get lucky and some will lose, the stories of the rich always make the headlines and the people who lost everything never do.

Finally, all bets are off, dont ignore the FACT that our country is so deep into debt now that we may never come out of it. Every financial aspect our of our lives right now is a lie. Our entire economy is based on our government borrowing and printing money.
Ask yourself what would happen if that stopped or if it continues, then what? Think the USA is too big to fail?
Im not saying it will but keep an open mind.

BTW - one of the biggest most easy ways to wealth is NOT borrow money from people to buy things you can not afford. So first, make sure you have no debt and second, no larger then a 15 year mortgage OR paying that 30 year off like a 15.
PS, stay away from second mortgages (aka home equity loans) which are the root of all evil as you should not be buying things you are too immature to save for.

 

[Dave Hess]

Finally, all bets are off, dont ignore the FACT that our country is so deep into debt now that we may never come out of it. Every financial aspect our of our lives right now is a lie. Our entire economy is based on our government borrowing and printing money.
Ask yourself what would happen if that stopped or if it continues, then what? Think the USA is too big to fail?
Im not saying it will but keep an open mind.

Unfortunately you are 100% correct that “every financial aspect of our lives right now is a lie” .



I was very lucky to have a little bit of cash on the sidelines in late 2019. Covid struck and the market took a hit.... I simply poured all that cash back in and rode the wave up. I was warning people in late 2019 to have some cash ready for 2020.

Nothing complicated, just used some common sense when knowing the 10 year bull run was coming to a end, I explained my views in a previous thread / investment post. I also sent a few PMs to some BITOG members, they know who they are.

If the government wasn’t pumping in Trillions of dollar and buying toxic assets, things would be very bleak....


.

 

[Oildudeny]

I retired in 2014 and no longer work or have (earned income) Just Military retirement and VA Disability , So I can no longer contribute to the Roth IRA which was in TSP C fund. We were able to max it out for about 9 years. No 401k either since i no longer have earned income so IRA will just sit in TSP since i can not contribute. So in 2014 I invested in USAA mutual fund "Cornerstone fund. Then in 2019 USAA sold it to Victory Capital. ER went up considerably from USAA ER of 0.27 to Victory Capital who raised ER to 1.14. That was final straw for me .Also could never reach anyone at victory by phone and they never responded to e mail. I had heard good things about Vanguard and Fidelity and Schwab, since I could never reach anyone at Victory I decided to called Vanguard they were busy but agreed to call me back within 1 hour.. they did and I let them deal with Victory capital and transfer the fund to Vanguard. It took about 10 business days. Now I have a nice 3 fund portfolio with Vanguard (admiral funds) and they have low ER of 0.04

My dad used to always listen to a radio show called "Money Talk"with Bob Brinker and he often said that the S&P 500 stocks were a good option so Vanguard total stock market fund is about 99% vested in S&P 500. Bob Brinker always talked about hitting "critical mass" with investing which means you get 1 million in investments . Wife and I will likely never hit critical mass, since we started sort of late, but expect to make some decent gains and when we eventually tap into it for income it will be what it is at that time - or +.

60% Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund
20% Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund
20% Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund

Investment strategy is simple for us now We use a Vanguard 3fund portfolio and add to it every month . It is also a strategy that Vangurds founder Jack Bogle inspired. Several interesting books about Boglehead investment strategy and the 2, 3 ,4 and 5 fund portfolios. I do not own any individual stocks, i just like mutual funds put the $$ in and leave it alone and it does what it does for better or worse.

Currently wife and can put in about $500 per month in this fund and in about 3 years when our house is paid off and no longer have a mortgage we aim to contribute the former mortgage payment which is right now $725 probably more like $500 a month because we will have to consider property tax. Full SS age for me is age 67 if I claim SS at early age of 62 SS check would be about 1500, waiting to 67 would push it up some just over 2k as I recall, I will Probably claim SS retirement at 62 and dump most of that into the fund as well.
I think funds with S&P 500 are usually going to do well long term though one might have to ride out some rough seas from time to time. 2008 comes to mind. My TSP IRA took a big punch that year and never fully recovered till about 2013.

Daughter is 20 and just started an IRA with Fidelity and they have zero ER fees which is nice for young investers.

You made the right move... moving to vanguard... fidelity and Schwab also equally as good... not getting controversial and thank you for your service the govt has no interest in how “your” money works for you. govt has a contract and gives a pool of monies and or funds and gets the % kickback.

You’ll see much better returns smartly managing your accounts yourself and following a steady investment strategy. It sounds like you’re on the right track. Also very good your daughter started investing young have her stick with it... and if she can set up with her employer a direct deposit she can have say $50 per paycheck go into her fidelity account. It won’t be missed if it’s never seen... many young investors always say I’ll deposit myself but most never do.

 

[BJD2020]

You made the right move... moving to vanguard... fidelity and Schwab also equally as good... not getting controversial and thank you for your service the govt has no interest in how “your” money works for you. govt has a contract and gives a pool of monies and or funds and gets the % kickback.

You’ll see much better returns smartly managing your accounts yourself and following a steady investment strategy. It sounds like you’re on the right track. Also very good your daughter started investing young have her stick with it... and if she can set up with her employer a direct deposit she can have say $50 per paycheck go into her fidelity account. It won’t be missed if it’s never seen... many young investors always say I’ll deposit myself but most never do.

Only reason I went with Vanguard was because I was somewhat familiar with the Money talk" radio programs and Bob Brinker. I think that Victory capital will see many, many former USAA mutual fund owners jump ship. I might have stayed with Victory had their ER not jumped up to 1.14. That is way too high. I had never heard of victory before but that's who usaa decided to sell to USAA got out of mutual fund bussiness. I like Vanguards web page as it is easy to navigate as well. Daughter is in college and works 2 part time jobs one employer HyVee has IRA and 401k but only for those who get 32 hrs or more every week she rarely gets above 25 hrs. She will have big advantage over me I started pretty late and wasted my 20's and 30's and 40's on an annuity insurance from Royal Neighbor which was a rip off . I ended up cashing it out and paying a huge penalty for early withdraw then never saved or invested much other than TSP and many years we did not max it out. Now playing catch up. May not hit the big 1 million or "critical mass" as bob Brinker calls it, but should at least hit 500k mark in 20 years with what we plan to toss into it. God willing and the creek don't rise. Hopefully we can toss nearly 2k a month in a few years with ss and when mortgage is paid up. Wont have the tax advantage of IRA but should still be OK .capital gains will be fun.

Starting in ones 20's is a huge advantage and i stress that to our daughter .dont be like me start NOW!!

 

[JeffKeryk]

Finally, all bets are off, dont ignore the FACT that our country is so deep into debt now that we may never come out of it. Every financial aspect our of our lives right now is a lie. Our entire economy is based on our government borrowing and printing money.
Ask yourself what would happen if that stopped or if it continues, then what? Think the USA is too big to fail?
Im not saying it will but keep an open mind.

BTW - one of the biggest most easy ways to wealth is NOT borrow money from people to buy things you can not afford. So first, make sure you have no debt and second, no larger then a 15 year mortgage OR paying that 30 year off like a 15.
PS, stay away from second mortgages (aka home equity loans) which are the root of all evil as you should not be buying things you are too immature to save for.

The government is funded by taxes or loans from banks. Those loans incur interest and have to be repaid.
Or as you say, by printing money, which is the real truth. Expect that to go on for the forseeable future.

I like your advice about paying down the loan on your home. People gotta have a place to live.
I never thought I could own a house. I found I was wrong. Wonderfully wrong.

 

[PimTac]

Listening to Bob Brinker on the weekends was a long time habit for me. I see that he retired from the radio show end of things. I was also a long time MarketTimer subscriber.

 

[Wolf359]

Unfortunately you are 100% correct that “every financial aspect of our lives right now is a lie” .

Yeah, including this lie.

Yeah, not to get political, but in terms of GDP, it's been higher, WWII. Came out of it after the 50's. It's getting up there though.

United States Gross Federal Debt to GDP

The United States recorded a Government Debt to GDP of 129 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2022. This page provides - United States Government Debt To GDP - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

tradingeconomics.com

Funny how every generation thinks the current one is going to he** in a handbasket. I suppose one day that will actually happen as governments do eventually fall.

 

[Astro14]

how many of you are cleaning up and filling your ira and 401k's etc before end of year? i dont trust this market very much right now i have been recovering my losses slowly and slowly getting out of individual stock and selling off shares of mutual funds etc. i want to take a different approach next year hopefully all this election fiasco will be over and the economy can try to recover from this past year of doom. if that is the case i want to follow the s&p, nasdaq and russell 2000. will most likely pick up mutual funds that track the following nasdaq and russell 2000...i am already in a s&p 500 fund.

for now i am watching this market close out the 2020 calendar year and have most all my ira's parked in the money market cash reserves.. if anyone cares to share their investment strategy for 2021 and on i'd be interested in hearing so. happy holidays and god bless all.. if your faith is elsewhere, many blessings to those who believe differently.

I wouldn’t go adding money into the market right now, when it just closed at the highest point in history.

I would, however, encourage you to add money to your retirement portfolio, perhaps cash. Take advantage of the tax benefits of doing so.

I feel obliged to point out, however, that your distrust of “this market” has led to you missing out on 3-8% ( depending on which index you select) since you started this thread. That’s a very large opportunity cost for trying to time the market. Since you started this thread, for example, my portfolio has had a six figure return. Consider that for just a moment. I’m not timing the market, so I catch the updrafts as well as the downdrafts. My return for the year has been, frankly, terrific. We bought stock in April, when they were quite cheap.

I’ve found that timing the market is a fool’s errand for the small investor.

Adjust your portfolio allocation based on risk tolerance and time horizon, and not on your sense of market direction. Buy individual stocks based on your value (or growth) perspective and the news and prospects of that company. Just read a few of Jeff Keryk’s Tesla posts to get a feel for that.

But please stop trying to time the market. Missing the updrafts will cost you. Big time. Determine your goals, risk tolerance and time horizon for the money.

Invest.

Then, stay the course.

 

[surfstar]

I wouldn’t go adding money into the market right now, when it just closed at the highest point in history.

Why not? Read about the stories of the world's worst market timers - they only invest new money at all-time market peaks.

What if You Only Invested at Market Peaks? - A Wealth of Common Sense

What happens when you only invest at the peaks of the market by being the world's worst market timer.

awealthofcommonsense.com

World’s Worst Market Timer: A Story and A Lesson

By Justin Carbonneau Imagine this: 80 years ago, you won a prize that promised 13 payments of $10,000 to be paid out over time. You think you’ve finally go

blog.validea.com

Meet Bob.

Bob is the world’s worst market timer.
...
Luckily, while Bob couldn’t time his buys, he never sold out of the market even once. He didn’t sell after the bear market of 1973-74 or the Black Monday in 1987 or the technology bust in 2000 or the financial crisis of 2007-09.

He never sold a single share.

So how did he do?

Even though he only bought at the very top of the market, Bob still ended up a millionaire with $1.1 million.

 

[Astro14]

I was advocating dollar cost averaging the money in, and you’re right, I should’ve said that better.

I’m adding money, considerable money, twice a month, so, this week, another add to this market.

I buy at the peak, but I also buy on the way down, at the bottom, and on the way up.

I don’t time.

 

[surfstar]

I was advocating dollar cost averaging the money in, and you’re right, I should’ve said that better.

I’m adding money, considerable money, twice a month, so, this week, another add to this market.

I buy at the peak, but I also buy on the way down, at the bottom, and on the way up.

I don’t time.

Correct! The best time to buy is now. And whenever you have the money to invest.


[this is directed to all BITOGers in general]
Here's the best infographic I could find, that points out how horribly wrong "experts" always are at predicting the market:

 

[BJD2020]

Listening to Bob Brinker on the weekends was a long time habit for me. I see that he retired from the radio show end of things. I was also a long time MarketTimer subscriber.

I Heart radio and Apple does have many of Bob Brinker's 'Money talk" radio programs in podcasts. I enjoyed that radio show. Though many of his guests were way way out of my league in terms of $$ , The investment advise Bob talked about works as well for a thousandaire as it does for the millionaires . everyone has to start somewhere as Bob would say sometimes "The path to ( critical mass ) 1 million , starts with a singe cent."

I wish I could get into Dave Ramsey radio show, but for whatever reason I just enjoyed moneytalk much more tha the Dave Ramsey radio show.

 

[BJD2020]

So how much of the huge run-up since March did you miss out on?
Don't have a "strategy" that changes by year, or feelings, or anything abruptly.
I suggest you spend some time reading bogleheads
You can get the Bogleheads Guide to Investing book, used for $5 or so.

Here's a free short e-book that is geared towards younger investors, but espouses a similar philosophy and is worth the short time it takes to read it:
If You Can by William J. Bernstein
Would you believe me if I told you that there’s an investment strategy that a seven-year-old could
understand, will take you fifteen minutes of work per year, outperform 90 percent of finance
professionals in the long run, and make you a millionaire over time?

and an article from today to read too: Keep Calm and Carry On

I don't have the Boglehead books but have read many web pages about it. A quick search for "3 fund portfolio" brings up several. I recently discovered the "boglehead.org" forum . Lots of forums about investing and stocks and bonds and retirement etc. Similar in format to BITOG forums , except that instead of oil and automotive forums , it has tons of forums on nearly every investment topic imaginable.

 

[Leo99]

I Heart radio and Apple does have many of Bob Brinker's 'Money talk" radio programs in podcasts. I enjoyed that radio show. Though many of his guests were way way out of my league in terms of $$ , The investment advise Bob talked about works as well for a thousandaire as it does for the millionaires . everyone has to start somewhere as Bob would say sometimes "The path to ( critical mass ) 1 million , starts with a singe cent."

I wish I could get into Dave Ramsey radio show, but for whatever reason I just enjoyed moneytalk much more tha the Dave Ramsey radio show.

The first million is the hardest.

Time is your biggest ally.

18 years ago my company started to offer a 401k. I put a small amount in large cap fund. Think they only matched 1%. Then after a year or two the company was sold. Contributed about $7000 and forgot about it for several years until they contacted me several times that they were closing the 401k accounts and i needed to roll it into an IRA and get it out. The rollover was over $35k. It's gone up quite a bit in the past 12 years.

Stay the course

 

[Dave Hess]

The key thing is to budget your money, have a low debt to income ratio and dollar cost average in your 401K & IRA for 35 years and you’ll retire early without any financial worries.

Never allow your ego to convince yourself to buy expensive crap you really don’t need if you can get by with a lot less.

Example: $60,000 new pickup truck with glitter and glam financed for 84 months........ verses buying a used $10,000 Camry and maxed out 401K and IRA.

I seriously believe the Dave Ramsey show has lots of staged phony people calling in with crazy financial problems.

 

[surfstar]

I don't have the Boglehead books but have read many web pages about it. A quick search for "3 fund portfolio" brings up several. I recently discovered the "boglehead.org" forum . Lots of forums about investing and stocks and bonds and retirement etc. Similar in format to BITOG forums , except that instead of oil and automotive forums , it has tons of forums on nearly every investment topic imaginable.

That's exactly how I found the Bogleheads forum a few years back - looked to start investing and learn; and came up with the 3 fund, simple portfolio and then I dove in to the rest. I've found the Social Security and tax advice on those forums to be quite helpful once you've established your portfolio. We were able to help me wife's parent's learn that they could file and suspend for SS, so that my mother-in-law could start collecting SS while deferring my father-in-law's SS until 70. Maximized their SS dollars that way. Never would have known about that otherwise.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Regarding timing the market...
Let's just say I have a little experience in computer programming, statistics, forecasting and data modeling. Predictive analytics is my job.
I've had opportunity to work with VERY expensive data systems (many millions of dollars).
These systems are amazing, powerful. Programmers make $150K to $250K and up. Plus stock...
These systems and their uber programmers and analysts fail at timing the market.
If you think you can, well...

The past 8 years have been unheard of. If you are in the market you look like a genius.
I humbly suggest you think long term, Grasshopper.
Good luck.

 

[BJD2020]

That's exactly how I found the Bogleheads forum a few years back - looked to start investing and learn; and came up with the 3 fund, simple portfolio and then I dove in to the rest. I've found the Social Security and tax advice on those forums to be quite helpful once you've established your portfolio. We were able to help me wife's parent's learn that they could file and suspend for SS, so that my mother-in-law could start collecting SS while deferring my father-in-law's SS until 70. Maximized their SS dollars that way. Never would have known about that otherwise.

I always learn something new when I look at the boglehead forum. I am not a registered user there, I just lurk and read topics as I see fit . Boglehead can be somewhat addicting at times,kind of like BITOG site, one topic of interest leads to another and another and another . Hard to just read one topic and leave sometimes.

 

[BJD2020]

The first million is the hardest.

Time is your biggest ally.

18 years ago my company started to offer a 401k. I put a small amount in large cap fund. Think they only matched 1%. Then after a year or two the company was sold. Contributed about $7000 and forgot about it for several years until they contacted me several times that they were closing the 401k accounts and i needed to roll it into an IRA and get it out. The rollover was over $35k. It's gone up quite a bit in the past 12 years.

Stay the course

Wife and I likely wont make it in the millionaire club ,but we hope to be able to ramp up investing to the 1500 per month range and maybe slightly higher once the house is paid off and we dump SS retirement dollars into it. If we can stay the course, stay alive and healthy and "God willing and the creek dont rise" we should be knockin on the door of 700k in about 15 years if S&P 500 returns even a modest 6% average. We live modestly enough and no plans of getting fancy toys or new vehicles to keep up with the Jone's. I might spurge on some napa synthetic oil for our 2 rides when it goes on sale at NAPA again.LOL!