I ordered blades for 2 vehicles and they showed up yesterday from USPS. 4 Anco blades and shipping was about$20. Much more easy on the old wallet. Thanks to RA.
Prices going up.
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Seems to me like the markets are just in full gouging mode because the buzz word among the masses is "shortages", I believe that many if not most of these so called shortages are faked so these companies can rake in big profits for the short haul. I even question the computer chip shortage.
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From around here this is what I see:
1) Drought throughout the West, means food price skyrocket. (5% water allocation compare to request)
2) Last few years we had a depressed price for milk and finally the smaller dairy farmers are out of business and prices come back to normal, these kind of depressed pricing is never meant to last long so just be glad you had it good.
3) Rest of the world is buying more because USD has devalued and it is cheaper to buy US crop than selling into the US market
4) Massive flooding in Europe and China, so they lost a bunch of crops and they need to import. On top of the US West drought we have a price increase.
5) Labor shortage (stimulus check, social distancing at work, outbreak at work reducing capacity, banning some undocumented farm worker, workers decided to move to other places and new workers don't want to join your industry, etc)
I do see price increases but percentage wise it is not as bad going from $3 to $4 for 59oz of OJ than $1 to $1.5 a gallon of milk. You wouldn't think people will try to sell you a bankruptcy price forever would you? Many of those old prices were bankruptcy prices.
I still think milk is a bargain compare to OJ price, it is definitely subsidized somehow.
1) Drought throughout the West, means food price skyrocket. (5% water allocation compare to request)
2) Last few years we had a depressed price for milk and finally the smaller dairy farmers are out of business and prices come back to normal, these kind of depressed pricing is never meant to last long so just be glad you had it good.
3) Rest of the world is buying more because USD has devalued and it is cheaper to buy US crop than selling into the US market
4) Massive flooding in Europe and China, so they lost a bunch of crops and they need to import. On top of the US West drought we have a price increase.
5) Labor shortage (stimulus check, social distancing at work, outbreak at work reducing capacity, banning some undocumented farm worker, workers decided to move to other places and new workers don't want to join your industry, etc)
I do see price increases but percentage wise it is not as bad going from $3 to $4 for 59oz of OJ than $1 to $1.5 a gallon of milk. You wouldn't think people will try to sell you a bankruptcy price forever would you? Many of those old prices were bankruptcy prices.
I still think milk is a bargain compare to OJ price, it is definitely subsidized somehow.
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1) First world problem
2) Welcome to America
This is why they were bankrupt and after they were bankrupt the price shoot back up. For all the Karens out there, you do not deserve $1 a gallon milk as a human right because it cost more than $1 to produce a gallon for the farmers. You need to pay at least that plus the store and the processing to get that milk to your fridge, whatever that is in your location.
There's also a drought in the West, so it will cost more now in addition to farmer bankruptcy. Farmers would probably grow strawberries and almond instead of alfalfa to produce the milk to be dumped into the ditch to keep the price from dropping too low.
Shortages are not being faked. Between global shipping backups, COVID disruptions to factories both here and abroad over the past year and a half, etc., there has been very real disruptions at a market level. Just several percent of reduction in availability of goods can have an oversized effect on prices, especially combined with an every groing number of dollars chasing those goods.
And they were bigger too.
That’s what I meant by “recent events”-not enough truck drivers, not enough supply, not even enough grocery store employees. All multiplied by cheap or free money buying everything in sight. House prices here are up a ridiculous ~30% year over year, amazingly the biggest jump in the US.
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When I was a kid in 1970 I think the bars were generally 2 oz and were 7 cents. I know there is no tangible way to prove it but the chocolate seemed to be higher quality back then too. Today it seems to be waxy and lacking in cocoa taste. Hershey Bars that is.
- The automotive chip shortage started when the pandemic spiked chip demand in areas like consumer electronics while vehicle sales dropped, leading automakers to pull back on chip orders. When the auto market had a faster than expected recovery, foundries didn't have the capacity slots available to add automakers fully back into the fold.
- The chip shortage was further stretched by weather-related power outages at Samsung, Infineon (OTCQX:IFNNY), and NXP Semiconductors (NASDAQ:NXPI). Auto chip giant Renesas (OTCPK:RNECF) was then hit by a fire at a chip plant that put its production behind.
- The majority of the automotive chip companies outsource at least some of their chip production to TSMC. The most notable exception is STMicroelectronics (NYSE:STM), which sticks to in-house auto chip production.
Just so you know, a new wafer fab is about $3B for bricks and mortar, and as much as $10B more in equipment (dep, etch, metrology, etc.).
Oh, inflation is here and it's no secret. You cannot borrow, print, and spend $25 trillion, over a trillion per year, for 2 decades and not suddenly find your dollars are rapidly becoming worthless. In 1980, our national debt was less than $1T. By 2000, it was $4T. Now, $28T... Growing faster annually than our entire combined historical debt from the beginning up to 1980.
One way to beat inflation is hard goods. Assets that hold intrinsic value, land, housing, tools, equipment, necessary durable and long term storage goods. And yes, hoarding, what a dirty word. When things are on sale, buy them in bulk and retain them. They will hold or increase in value, while the dollars are eaten away. Example. If you buy a normally priced $5 quart of oil on sale for $2.5, you saved 50%. Let's say in the future, that same new oil is $10 because the dollar depreciates 50%. Well your discounted oil is now worth 4x what you paid for it. And it's intrinsically useful... This isn't speculation, this will occur.
If you don't believe it, find prices of goods from 1-4 decades ago. Compare to today. Other than improvements in technology related and other niche items, the price of most consumer goods has skyrocketed in a few decades. That's inflation, in hindsight. It will continue, and probably accelerate.
It should be mentioned it's not all bad; one nice thing about advancements is that many products do improve, such as lubricants, vehicle safety, computer technology (improvements and setbacks, a mixed bag). And as our dollars depreciate, our goods become more affordable overseas and it harms our competition. Our exports get more affordable overseas.
One way to beat inflation is hard goods. Assets that hold intrinsic value, land, housing, tools, equipment, necessary durable and long term storage goods. And yes, hoarding, what a dirty word. When things are on sale, buy them in bulk and retain them. They will hold or increase in value, while the dollars are eaten away. Example. If you buy a normally priced $5 quart of oil on sale for $2.5, you saved 50%. Let's say in the future, that same new oil is $10 because the dollar depreciates 50%. Well your discounted oil is now worth 4x what you paid for it. And it's intrinsically useful... This isn't speculation, this will occur.
If you don't believe it, find prices of goods from 1-4 decades ago. Compare to today. Other than improvements in technology related and other niche items, the price of most consumer goods has skyrocketed in a few decades. That's inflation, in hindsight. It will continue, and probably accelerate.
It should be mentioned it's not all bad; one nice thing about advancements is that many products do improve, such as lubricants, vehicle safety, computer technology (improvements and setbacks, a mixed bag). And as our dollars depreciate, our goods become more affordable overseas and it harms our competition. Our exports get more affordable overseas.
Inflation is a "humane" way to reduce prices of something that naturally should have gone down by letting it "not catch up to inflation". It would be rude to have something / someone's salary go down over time, or some pension fund go down in value, but it is "natural" in a world of competing economic interest in a world economy. Nothing goes up forever when it is obsoleted.
So to balance out all the math, with inflation something will go UP like crazy in value (something new and shiny, hot and popular, or just left over money after the essentials like real estate speculation), while others will stagnant against inflation (i.e. income level of liberal art degree, unskilled labor income, farmer's income). This eventually will happen, and inflation / low interest rate will force money to go into new stuff (new R&D, speculative investment, risky bets with high return like subprime loans, risky bet like tech stock with potentials going unicorn).
War is a typical way of many large nations going into huge debts throughout history and this huge debts is the reason many nations get into high risk speculations and bets, and either hyper inflation via low interest or high interest into default, either way, this is a typical way empires fell throughout history.
So to balance out all the math, with inflation something will go UP like crazy in value (something new and shiny, hot and popular, or just left over money after the essentials like real estate speculation), while others will stagnant against inflation (i.e. income level of liberal art degree, unskilled labor income, farmer's income). This eventually will happen, and inflation / low interest rate will force money to go into new stuff (new R&D, speculative investment, risky bets with high return like subprime loans, risky bet like tech stock with potentials going unicorn).
War is a typical way of many large nations going into huge debts throughout history and this huge debts is the reason many nations get into high risk speculations and bets, and either hyper inflation via low interest or high interest into default, either way, this is a typical way empires fell throughout history.
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I remember in the mid 90s, a quart of M1 was about $4.99. It's pretty much the same now. Dino oil was about $.99 a quart. Synthetic has stayed about the same but dino has quadrupled.
When I was 16 (1985) minimum wage was $4.50 an hr. What is it now, $7.25?
When I was 16 (1985) minimum wage was $4.50 an hr. What is it now, $7.25?
It all depends what state you were in. In 1985, Federal minimum wage was $3.35. Texas just goes by the Federal minimum wage which is $7.25 now, lasted raised in 2009.
Massachusetts has one of the highest minimum wage in the nation, right now about $13.50. Going to $15 in a couple years as it goes up another 75 cents in January and the year after will go to $15. Only Washington, at $13.69, California at $14 and Washington DC are higher at $15.
Inflation hasn't been worse because some things have come down in price. I remember paying a few hundred dollars for a CV joint back in the 90s. Of course the cheap aftermarket ones are junk these days but you can get them sometimes for under $100. Same with alternators, rebuilt ones are in the $100-$200 range, same risk of getting junk but also in that same range for decades. Costco has been able to maintain their $1.50 hot dog and $5 rotisserie chicken for decades.
These are all relatively poor metrics to gauge upon. Synthetic oils are the product of technology advancements and efficiencies and beneficial pricing due to larger economies of scale, and dino oils the victim of lower demand causing higher pricing due to lessening economies of scale. That "new" technology (synthetics) is no longer novel, but almost universal now. As with all technology, prices fall and economies of scale get bigger further reducing pricing. The converse is true with dino oils.
Here's an analogy. Physical music, such as records. When first introduced, very expensive because rare and new. Then with larger adoption and economies of scale, they became affordable. When replaced by cassettes, the advantages of portability and compactness, records became very cheap. Decades later, records became vintage and collectable and very expensive. The same trajectory can be seen with cassettes, then CDs. So these are not very good metrics of gauging an economy. They're just an evolution of a highly technological product.
Min. Wage is also not a very good metric. It's very political. Also, those earning more than min. wage rarely get commensurate wage increases.
It all depends what state you were in. In 1985, Federal minimum wage was $3.35. Texas just goes by the Federal minimum wage which is $7.25 now, lasted raised in 2009.
Massachusetts has one of the highest minimum wage in the nation, right now about $13.50. Going to $15 in a couple years as it goes up another 75 cents in January and the year after will go to $15. Only Washington, at $13.69, California at $14 and Washington DC are higher at $15.
Inflation hasn't been worse because some things have come down in price. I remember paying a few hundred dollars for a CV joint back in the 90s. Of course the cheap aftermarket ones are junk these days but you can get them sometimes for under $100. Same with alternators, rebuilt ones are in the $100-$200 range, same risk of getting junk but also in that same range for decades. Costco has been able to maintain their $1.50 hot dog and $5 rotisserie chicken for decades.
These examples are also not great. Lower quality and imported junk from nations that don't compete fairly vs. American made goods. It is true, many "goods" have remained similar pricing from a decade ago. It's mainly because 3rd world workers are suffering lower near slave-labor wages to satisfy our insatiable need for junk. As for hot dogs, I suspect some goods, like a Costco hotdog, are quite likely "loss leaders" to bring folks into the store. People are not stocking up on hot dogs so Costco can afford to lose 50 cents on a dog. They'll more than make it up on the margins on the $1000 worth of stuff the customer leaves with.
Technically no example would be great because the government uses about 80k items to track inflation so unless we comment on all 80k items, you're not going to get a great post.
:max_bytes(150000):strip_icc()/basket_of_goods.asp-FINAL-1-e377b62b01334ddf849d5ee168defe19.png)
Basket of Goods: Definition, CPI Calculation, and Example
A basket of goods is defined as a constant set of consumer products and services valued on an annual basis and used to calculate the consumer price index (CPI).
In the real estate world, we have a saying that a comp is a comp. Some people will go nuts and argue over the relative merits of each comp whether it's good or bad. But a comp is a comp. Or more broadly, it is what it is.
The government has been manipulating number for decades. Not to be trusted.
The best metric is to look around and see what are essentials and what is occurring with essential products and your relative buying power. Energy is dramatically up. Cost of clean water is dramatically up. Cost of housing and land in desirable areas, is skyrocketing. Cost of utilities, soaring. Cost of food, soaring and we are seeing reported shortages (meat, coffee, last year it was dairy, etc.). Cost of building materials is astronomical. Cost of vehicles, skyrocketed. Etc.
Generally, absent the anomaly sale or whatever, the things "down" in price is the junk nobody wants. Across the board, in this market, anything desirable is much more expensive than a year ago. Let's ignore the loss leaders, clearances, and abnormal odd markets and just look at the price of a desirable good, if you just walk into any store and buy it. Lumber, groceries, fuel, utilities, vehicles and parts, computers, are all much higher in price.
The best metric is to look around and see what are essentials and what is occurring with essential products and your relative buying power. Energy is dramatically up. Cost of clean water is dramatically up. Cost of housing and land in desirable areas, is skyrocketing. Cost of utilities, soaring. Cost of food, soaring and we are seeing reported shortages (meat, coffee, last year it was dairy, etc.). Cost of building materials is astronomical. Cost of vehicles, skyrocketed. Etc.
Generally, absent the anomaly sale or whatever, the things "down" in price is the junk nobody wants. Across the board, in this market, anything desirable is much more expensive than a year ago. Let's ignore the loss leaders, clearances, and abnormal odd markets and just look at the price of a desirable good, if you just walk into any store and buy it. Lumber, groceries, fuel, utilities, vehicles and parts, computers, are all much higher in price.
But if you are referring to the Keystone XL pipeline, it’s an oil pipeline and not a natural gas line. Low natural gas prices require drilling and frack’ing. The USA needs to start up another 100 drilling rigs drilling for natural gas, otherwise production will go into decline and prices will climb.
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You should come down here and see all the capped wells. There isn’t a shortage of NG by any means. I used pipelines, because that’s an excuse I hear from folks who blame higher prices.
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