Life Expectancy in the USA, Formula - you calculate from your present age, not your birth age.

[alarmguy]

This is a fascinating subject, one that just came to light in my mind based in another unrelated thread.
There is always this constant debate in the USA when to collect Social Security, how long will you live.

We all know in rough numbers that the average male in the USA can expect to live to around 79 years old, meaning half will make it to that age.
The thing is, now being retired, one huge detail never reported in the media (I look at the media as entertainment)

If you make it to retirement age then the median death age moves up because the median age of 79 is calculated from birth year 0 to 79 A lot of men die between birth year 0 to 62, 63, 64...70 ... 79
So for example if you make it to the age of 67 your new median death age is 83 if you make it to 83 your new median age is 90
If you retire at 65 your median age to die is now 83 not 79.
Wow, this is cool and one will never find a more reliable source than Social Security Stats.

This is a much more complicated statement depending on what age that you are in life.
It's really interesting and something that taken at face value in the USA isnt as clear cut by the reporting in the media.
According to the USA government chart roughly 50% men from birth to age 80/81 will have died but if you make it to that age your median death age is now much higher. The scale is graduating from birth year 0 to present.

Woman as we know live a few more years in all groups.

I find this fascinating ...
Here is the USA source =

Actuarial Life Table

Actuarial Life Table

www.ssa.gov

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[Eddie]

My 85 birthday is ~ 2 months away so the graph indicates I have 6 more years to go. Kind of depressing since I still do my oil/filter changes. I hope I will be an Outlier. Ha

 

[demarpaint]

I better book another cruise, time is ticking away.

 

[alarmguy]

My 85 birthday is ~ 2 months away so the graph indicates I have 6 more years to go. Kind of depressing since I still do my oil/filter changes. I hope I will be an Outlier. Ha

Look at the bright side! You already beat the median 79 and being you made it to 85 that is now 91 and if you make it to 91 that is almost 95!
Im doing my best eating, working out trying to take care of myself to beat the median, you're doing great, I hope I am changing my own oil at 85.
God bless you, very cool.

 

[atikovi]

So for example if you make it to the age of 67 your new median death age is 83 if you make it to 83 your new median age is 90

What do they say about lairs and statistics? Sounds like voodoo science. Heredity is the biggest influence, then environment and lifestyle choices. That's why you see 100 year old 2 pack a day smokers as well as marathon runners who drop dead at 50.

 

[alarmguy]

What do they say about lairs and statistics? Sounds like voodoo science. Heredity is the biggest influence, then environment and lifestyle choices. That's why you see 100 year old 2 pack a day smokers as well as marathon runners who drop dead at 50.

You are correct many factors determine death and the amount of deaths are reported which is fact, so if one of those things you mention above dont do you in at the age you look up on the chart, you have a 50% chance of making it the published number of years mentioned.
People start dying at time of birth and the chart simply shows how many people are left each year later. Using a base per 100,000 people.

 

[Joel_MD]

What do they say about lairs and statistics? Sounds like voodoo science. Heredity is the biggest influence, then environment and lifestyle choices. That's why you see 100 year old 2 pack a day smokers as well as marathon runners who drop dead at 50.

Why do you say it sounds like voodoo science? The median death rate is taking everybody into account, so that would include babies that are born alive but die within minutes. If someone has already made it to an elderly age, chances are they're going to live well past the median death age.

 

[Passport1]

 

[atikovi]

Why do you say it sounds like voodoo science?

The idea that if you are 67 you can expect to live to 83 is ok. But now that you have made it to 83, what changed all of a sudden such that you are expected to live to 90? Why don't they say you are expected to live to 90 back when you are 67?

 

[TheLawnRanger]

My 85 birthday is ~ 2 months away so the graph indicates I have 6 more years to go. Kind of depressing since I still do my oil/filter changes. I hope I will be an Outlier. Ha

You get bumped up to 100 if you change your own oil.

 

[BISCUT]

The idea that if you are 67 you can expect to live to 83 is ok. But now that you have made it to 83, what changed all of a sudden such that you are expected to live to 90? Why don't they say you are expected to live to 90 back when you are 67?

It's not a linear equation..... At the most basic level use a vehicle. Often a vehicle will have "issues" within X number of years on the road but if that vehicle makes it to a certain X mileage the probability of it going to 200k increases... or think of it like TBN also not linear. Might have made it more difficult but that's what I got today!

 

[atikovi]

My 85 birthday is ~ 2 months away so the graph indicates I have 6 more years to go. Kind of depressing since I still do my oil/filter changes. I hope I will be an Outlier. Ha

Maybe start taking some rapamycin.

 

[Tom NJ]

Race is also a significant factor. This report contains a table that breaks down remaining life expectancy by age, gender, and race. You can interpolate for your age.

Life Expectancy

 

[alarmguy]

Race is also a significant factor. This report contains a table that breaks down remaining life expectancy by age, gender, and race. You can interpolate for your age.

Life Expectancy

Yes, it's significant in the statistics but to me anyway, way more important is lifestyle, eating habits and weight. I hate to look at race statistics because anyone of any race can improve life expectancy with "lifestyle, eating habits and weight" I mean, this is what is killing us in the USA. 70% of the population overweight. 1 out of 3 young people are too heavy to serve in our military.

I have become sensitive to the weight and eating habits part of the "formula" and most my life tried to keep in mind the horrible family history and genetics. I eat and exercise like no one has ever done on the male side of my family, but I REALLY over a decade or two took it to the next level, I wish I did much sooner but so far (fingers crosses) I am the only one without diabetes and have not needed a heart bypass operation where my dad and brother had both when they were up to 15/20 before my current age.

The genetics are there though, angiogram in early 2021 shows minimal plaque in my veins which is a good sign, it would be better if it wasnt there at all but like I mentioned my brother and dad had complete blockages and many heart attacks over a decade earlier then my current age.
Anyway, all very interesting regarding the Social Security Death Rate Stats.

 

[Cujet]

This is a subject that is quite sobering and yet fascinates me. I previously posted an active chart where you could input your data and it would generate probabilities.

Despite the constant information bombarding us, making the claim that lifespan is increasing, that is not so. A post above got it right, "IF" you make it to,,,, Then....

We can look at this another way. If a male makes it to 65, 1/4 of his peers have died. I'd love to live a long and healthy life, but I have 2 autoimmune diseases and they are taking a toll. Barring some miracle, I'm likely to be among those who don't make it to the "expected" lifespan.

 

[IndyIan]

The idea that if you are 67 you can expect to live to 83 is ok. But now that you have made it to 83, what changed all of a sudden such that you are expected to live to 90? Why don't they say you are expected to live to 90 back when you are 67?

It is a simple calculation using the observed average death rates at each age. So if you are one of the lucky ones to get to 83, you do have a much greater chance of getting to 90 than at 67 as you've already survived all those years to get to 83 already. No personal habit adjustments are included as that's a much more involved estimation.

 

[Egg_Head]

I better quit hoarding oil. Someone here needs to run a model on size of oil stash vs. life expectancy.

 

[Gyro Gearloose]

My uncle used to say he was at that age where he should no longer buy green bananas.

 

[Jetronic]

The idea that if you are 67 you can expect to live to 83 is ok. But now that you have made it to 83, what changed all of a sudden such that you are expected to live to 90? Why don't they say you are expected to live to 90 back when you are 67?

because only 50% of those who are 67 now make it to 83... and 50% of those that make 83, also make 90... but at 67 your chance of making 90 is only 25%

 

[Eddie]

What is rapamycin?