Largest cities in the world 2050 (projection)

[GON]

Interesting study of the largest cities in the world in 2050 (projection).

The US will only have two of the top 50 cities in the world (population), New York City and Los Angelos. In 1950, the US had three cities in the top ten (NYC, Chicago, LA). In North America, Mexico City has seen massive growth, and that is a understatement.

Amazed at the growth of cities/population in Asia and Africa.

My takeaway- land is everything, "buy land and all you can young man". There will be major global conflicts to compete for basic necessities. The US will likely have mass immigration from Asia and Africa to utilize the USA's open land and make up shortfalls in entitlement funding by generating new people to pay into social security, Medicare, etc. in 2100, the USA will have a massive shift in its demographics and its core values. The open, farmable land and fresh water is what will bring the global masses to migrate to the USA in 2100.

City population 2050

City population 2050

sites.ontariotechu.ca

This video is interesting to watch to get a visual of city population from 1950 to present:

 

[NiwradND]

People are leaving like crazy from New York, common sense have left the leaders of this city!

 

[SC Maintenance]

I wonder what goes into their projections?

I have heard / read that the world wont hit 8B population - because as globalization crumbles - which it is doing - a lot of countries won't be able to get the inputs of production to grow food and there will be famine - which will cause people to have fewer children, along with the fact that two of the worlds largest exporters of both grain and fertilizer are at war and little is getting out.

Of course, less food might push even more people into cities - looking for work?

 

[GON]

I wonder what goes into their projections?

I have heard / read that the world wont hit 8B population - because as globalization crumbles - which it is doing - a lot of countries won't be able to get the inputs of production to grow food and there will be famine - which will cause people to have fewer children, along with the fact that two of the worlds largest exporters of both grain and fertilizer are at war and little is getting out.

Of course, less food might push even more people into cities - looking for work?

SCM,

What I have been told from travels, is that in many parts of Asia, much of Africa, and the middle east, having children and as many as possible is their culture. The center of gravity in some of the countries is children are required to take care of their parents when they age, the more children, the better chance of a better life when one gets old. Unlike the USA, adults in these countries have little chance of building wealth and security on their own, their children is their retirement plan.

What throws all this into a challenge is western medicine. I recently worked in Sri Lanka. In 1920s, average age of death of adults was in their 30s. It is now in the 60s, and pushing 70a years of age. And the live birth rates in these countries has significantly increased, along with vast reduction of mother's dying from child birth. This equates to a very large growth in population, centers around culture and traditions.

Farmland, and fresh water. The upper great lakes may be the boom region for the USA come 2100.

 

[ecotourist]

I'm generally an optimist but there must be some limit to how many people the earth can support.

The good news is that as an economy becomes more prosperous the people tend to have smaller families. Many countries no longer have enough births to even replace their population - western countries primarily, but also China.

 

[SC Maintenance]

SCM,

What I have been told from travels, is that in many parts of Asia, much of Africa, and the middle east, having children and as many as possible is their culture. The center of gravity in some of the countries is children are required to take care of their parents when they age, the more children, the better chance of a better life when one gets old. Unlike the USA, adults in these countries have little chance of building wealth and security on their own, their children is their retirement plan.

What throws all this into a challenge is western medicine. I recently worked in Sri Lanka. In 1920s, average age of death of adults was in their 30s. It is now in the 60s, and pushing 70a years of age. And the live birth rates in these countries has significantly increased, along with vast reduction of mother's dying from child birth. This equates to a very large growth in population, centers around culture and traditions.

Farmland, and fresh water. The upper great lakes may be the boom region for the USA come 2100.

This is exactly the point of those that say we won't get to 8 billion - when people move to the city they have far fewer children. Its happened in every country that has modernized. When your a subsistence farmer you have lots of space and children are free labor. When you move to the city, children are pure costs, and you live in a tiny apartment with no space, so people have fewer. That's there theory at least, and the trend has followed every major modernized country.

Even in Mexico - which are absolutely culturally and religiously in favor of large families, are down to 1.9 births per woman. Statistically you need about 2.1 births per woman simply to maintain your population.

So if all these cities are going to grow to the size they predict, I was wondering what they were using as inputs to their model?

 

[PimTac]

As more young adults achieve education in the developing countries they are finding out that bigger families is not the way to go for the future. I see more and more couple with one or two children compared to the five or six that was common many years ago.

Many of these college educated people are saving money for their children’s education. That would continue the cycle.

 

[Passport1]

there must be some limit to how many people the earth can support.

There is. The Malthusian theory explains the carrying capacity of the earth to support humans.

 

[Lapham3]

The US population was about 150M in 1950 and around 340M now. Mice start eating each other with overcrowding and maybe the big city violent death is similar?

 

[JHZR2]

The culture in Japan seems to support people living on top of each other and getting by. Im not sure it’s as good as that in the third world. Question becomes if enough people used to absolute squalor come here, are willing to live marginally better, but are willing to support overturning codes and zoning, then it will go one way. If not it will go another.

I see the folks that want to turn suburbia higher density. They think that by pushing diversity, lower income housing intermixed, and higher density housing, that better outcomes will occur. I’m not sure I drink their kool aid, but what I’m really against is the densification of smaller communities. No, folks don’t need 3000sf on 5 acres, a quarter acre is sufficient for folks to live comfortably and spread. But when that becomes “unfair”, and all of a sudden a lot more people are in the quarter acre in the interest of low cost housing, I think that’s when things get ruined.

 

[PimTac]

I see the folks that want to turn suburbia higher density. They think that by pushing diversity, lower income housing intermixed, and higher density housing, that better outcomes will occur. I’m not sure I drink their kool aid, but what I’m really against is the densification of smaller communities. No, folks don’t need 3000sf on 5 acres, a quarter acre is sufficient for folks to live comfortably and spread. But when that becomes “unfair”, and all of a sudden a lot more people are in the quarter acre in the interest of low cost housing, I think that’s when things get ruined.

Most of the residents in Asian mega cities live in 50-70 square meter places. 3000 square feet is luxurious. Space efficiency becomes a necessity.

 

[AmBeRnEcTaR]

The world is gonna be a rapidly swirling toilet by 2050.
A big giant turbo toilet...

 

[billt460]

People are leaving like crazy from New York, common sense have left the leaders of this city!

They're also running out of Chicago faster than a church on fire on Sunday morning. Wasteful spending, along with an idiotic, out of control tax structure, coupled with a crime rate that makes the population of San Quentin look like Boy Scouts, are just a few of the reasons why.

And as they run, they'll all be taking their money with them. This is a vicious cycle that is going to come crashing down around them. It's only a matter of time. People tend to run away from places that require them to pay more to have less.

And that has been going on in Chicago for several decades now. Much like California, their financial rubber band has been stretched to the max, and is about to snap.

 

[chrlsful]

Of course, less food might push even more people into cities - looking for work?

Opposite. Look at covid'n Great Depression.
GD: no $ or wrk in the cuty (but a welfare community to take care of U that had nuttin & really didnt). Ppl in the country could save seed, Replant'n have food, sell extra. No $ for gas or anything but able to survive.
Covid: gov abandons citizens (my local waited on the regional, waited on the state, waited on the region, waited on the fed with out results, aid or understanding). Meanwhile, prt of our neighborhood, 7 homes (4 couples 3 singles, 10 kids) formed a double buble that took care of us - covid was Not Allowed to enter out lill enclave. We shopped for 1 another, did laundry'n cookin, had school, etc. It all ways goes down to the locals, even non-pros. Sno storm? flood? yup - some run from the fire, others toward. HTH, probably not 8^ (

 

[SC Maintenance]

Opposite. Look at covid'n Great Depression.
GD: no $ or wrk in the cuty (but a welfare community to take care of U that had nuttin & really didnt). Ppl in the country could save seed, Replant'n have food, sell extra. No $ for gas or anything but able to survive.
Covid: gov abandons citizens (my local waited on the regional, waited on the state, waited on the region, waited on the fed with out results, aid or understanding). Meanwhile, prt of our neighborhood, 7 homes (4 couples 3 singles, 10 kids) formed a double buble that took care of us - covid was Not Allowed to enter out lill enclave. We shopped for 1 another, did laundry'n cookin, had school, etc. It all ways goes down to the locals, even non-pros. Sno storm? flood? yup - some run from the fire, others toward. HTH, probably not 8^ (

I am not sure your point.

People had less children in the great depression than before and moved to the city looking for work.

Pandemic - birth rates plummeted even more than before. Post Pandemic people continue to migrate towards metro centers - even if not to inner cities. Birth rates remain low. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/us-births-are-down-again-after-the-covid-baby-bust-and-rebound/

Not sure your point. Did your little pandemic group have more children due to covid?

 

[Vil_Riker]

The world is moving towards multipolarity and final decolonization. So these projections might be somewhat reliable.

 

[Number_35]

Interesting study of the largest cities in the world in 2050 (projection).

The US will only have two of the top 50 cities in the world (population), New York City and Los Angelos. In 1950, the US had three cities in the top ten (NYC, Chicago, LA). In North America, Mexico City has seen massive growth, and that is a understatement.

Amazed at the growth of cities/population in Asia and Africa.

My takeaway- land is everything, "buy land and all you can young man". There will be major global conflicts to compete for basic necessities. The US will likely have mass immigration from Asia and Africa to utilize the USA's open land and make up shortfalls in entitlement funding by generating new people to pay into social security, Medicare, etc. in 2100, the USA will have a massive shift in its demographics and its core values. The open, farmable land and fresh water is what will bring the global masses to migrate to the USA in 2100.

City population 2050

City population 2050

sites.ontariotechu.ca

This video is interesting to watch to get a visual of city population from 1950 to present:

Fascinating! Thank you so much for posting this.

Random observations:

Philadelphia was on the chart for a few years in the '50s. I wouldn't have guessed that.

China, as the world's most populous nation, seemed to be underrepresented, meaning its population must be spread out among many large cities, most of which are not large enough to crack the Top 15 or so.

Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to be the major growth area in this century, and Lagos does finally show up right near the end.

Greater Tokyo has a full third of Japan's population. I wonder if there's anywhere else in the world where the population is so concentrated into one metro area?

 

[brianl703]

I see the folks that want to turn suburbia higher density.

Common thing for developers to do around here is to tell a jurisdiction that if they approve high-density housing, it'll bring business to that area. These tend to be "bedroom community" jurisdictions eager to increase their tax base and reduce the tax burden.

The developers show up with their projections and their presentations showing all the retail and restaurants that will spring up once there are enough "rooftops" to support them.

What invariably happens is that the high-density housing is built---and the business never comes. Now that jurisdiction is even worse off than before.

 

[Number_35]

Common thing for developers to do around here is to tell a jurisdiction that if they approve high-density housing, it'll bring business to that area. These tend to be "bedroom community" jurisdictions eager to increase their tax base and reduce the tax burden.

The developers show up with their projections and their presentations showing all the retail and restaurants that will spring up once there are enough "rooftops" to support them.

What invariably happens is that the high-density housing is built---and the business never comes. Now that jurisdiction is even worse off than before.

Our inner suburb is being infested by infill housing. Small older single-storey homes on 50' lots are being torn down and replaced by two 2-storey duplexes.

The residents hate this trend.

The city loves it - 4x the tax revenue from the same frontage.

 

[OilUzer]

CA People are moving to WA state.