Investors....come in please!

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Being officially "Retired" now, I can start monitoring the markets, stocks & my portfolio MUCH more now.

In fact, this should be my "#1 non-project, daily item on my list".

SPY, EEM, some stocks & setting Stop-Loss points are up to bat.

Your thoughts??
 
Originally Posted By: Turk
Being officially "Retired" now, I can start monitoring the markets, stocks & my portfolio MUCH more now.

In fact, this should be my "#1 non-project, daily item on my list".

SPY, EEM, some stocks & setting Stop-Loss points are up to bat.

Your thoughts??



Just don't get down to the 1 minute time frame like I have a tendency to do!

http://ciovaccocapital.com/wordpress/

This gentlemen/professional money manager has one of the best investment blogs out there for overall trends. He puts out a weekly video. Brilliant stuff; all objective technical analysis. His motto, follow what IS happening, not what you think should happen. Highly recommended.

He put out a video a few weeks back analyzing the market profile at the peak in 2000 and 2007, and what one should look for for the next large peak in US stocks, if and when it's going to happen. Fascinating analysis and extremely useful. he covers a bit of the 2007 market period in this weeks video. I've learned more following his analysis than anything/anyone else.
 
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Wow, Drew, that is one fantastic site & video.

Definitely something to follow...
thumbsup2.gif
 
Hi folks,

I have been retired for many years and am partially disabled.

I currently have $10k cash available in my IRA. I'm looking to buy something with a max dividend. I have been looking at a number of high div stocks and ARR may be a good option. I expect to keep this stock for up to a year because I will need $6500 sometime next year. Reason for this is that I withdraw the max each year and deposit it in my wife's IRA. Because of our age difference, I can do this for another 3 years. So far, I have moved $30,500 in this way.

Let me add that I have a comprehensive financial plan and a good income stream right now. My wife works full time and is planning to retire sometime after Feb 2015, so we don't need any additional income.

I would appreciate any info/suggestions anyone may have.

Wayne
 
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Originally Posted By: Drew99GT

He put out a video a few weeks back analyzing the market profile at the peak in 2000 and 2007, and what one should look for for the next large peak in US stocks, if and when it's going to happen. Fascinating analysis and extremely useful. he covers a bit of the 2007 market period in this weeks video. I've learned more following his analysis than anything/anyone else.


His approach is a very common sense and trend following.
Nothing wrong with that.
However, one needs to take into account the macroeconomics and they are very ugly at this point:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10310...pre-Lehman.html
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/NYSE-Margin-Debt-and-the-SPX.php

Very comparable to 2000 and 2007.

I'm not even mentioning the debt default possibility or USA rating downgrade.
 
Originally Posted By: Turk
Bought a bunch of VXX this morning.



IMHO, time to buy it was when it was cheap rather than now.

It's possible to make some money om VXX, but it will be hard as decay of value is huge in this.

But, I'm not a trader.
 
Originally Posted By: Oldmoparguy1
I would appreciate any info/suggestions anyone may have.


Because you have said that you are retired, I assume that you're older and are not necessarily looking for long-term investments. In fact, you've said as much, saying that you'll need at least 65% of your principle next year.

I would not recommend investing in one equity. ARR is not likely to go belly-up, but it could. Not only do you expose yourself to that risk by buying into one company, but you also expose yourself to risk by locking you money up in one industry (real estate). And on top of that, REITs tend to be highly dependent on the financial policies of leadership in this country, and that can go either way. Bottom line: I see putting all of your eggs into ARR as very risky. Not to say that you shouldn't put some of your eggs there, but I wouldn't put 'em all there.

If you are interested in relatively large dividends, I recommend looking at established companies with relatively stable bases. Utilities are commonly given as examples of good dividend-paying stocks that aren't as tied to market swings as some other types of companies are. I like a few petroleum companies; Royal Dutch Shell (RDS-B) and Chevron (CVX) are two in particular that pay healthy dividends but that are also stable companies and are solid investments for short term.

For an average investor, it's hard to beat market index funds. Many have incredibly low expense ratios and their performance essentially matches that of the market. Market goes down, it goes down. Market goes up, it goes up. A lot of my money is in Vanguard's Admiral S&P500 Index Fund (VFIAX). Its yield is close to 2%, which is essentially the average dividend of all the equities it owns. And the expense ratio is 0.05%, which is about as free as an investment fund gets. Be careful with mutual funds in general; some have high expense ratios that really eat into your earnings.
 
Originally Posted By: friendly_jacek
Originally Posted By: Turk
Bought a bunch of VXX this morning.



IMHO, time to buy it was when it was cheap rather than now.

It's possible to make some money om VXX, but it will be hard as decay of value is huge in this.

But, I'm not a trader.


I got what I wanted. In & out & made several hundred.
thumbsup2.gif
 
Originally Posted By: Turk
Originally Posted By: friendly_jacek
Originally Posted By: Turk
Bought a bunch of VXX this morning.



IMHO, time to buy it was when it was cheap rather than now.

It's possible to make some money om VXX, but it will be hard as decay of value is huge in this.

But, I'm not a trader.


I got what I wanted. In & out & made several hundred.
thumbsup2.gif




If you want to have some real fun, trade some VXX weekly at the money options when stocks tank. Only for a day trade though. 100% gains are possible in minutes! Better than just trading SPY options or futures.
 
Never did any option stuff, Drew, so I have no idea how about to go about that.
 
Originally Posted By: Hokiefyd
Originally Posted By: Oldmoparguy1
I would appreciate any info/suggestions anyone may have.


I would not recommend investing in one equity.

For an average investor, it's hard to beat market index funds. Many have incredibly low expense ratios and their performance essentially matches that of the market. Market goes down, it goes down. Market goes up, it goes up. A lot of my money is in Vanguard's Admiral S&P500 Index Fund (VFIAX). Its yield is close to 2%, which is essentially the average dividend of all the equities it owns. And the expense ratio is 0.05%, which is about as free as an investment fund gets. Be careful with mutual funds in general; some have high expense ratios that really eat into your earnings.


I also recommend that you do not invest money that will be needed next year into one stock.
Some other good, safe, balanced Vanguard funds for this situation I'd recommend are:
Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund Investor Shares (VWINX)
Vanguard Target Retirement Income (VTINX)
both are balanced (hold bonds as well as equities) and have decent yield, and much more stable than an equity only fund or anything less diversified.
One year is a short term investment and you won't get much returns unless you want to basically gamble.
 
Originally Posted By: surfstar
One year is a short term investment and you won't get much returns unless you want to basically gamble.


Correct. Another option for Oldmoparguy1, if he really wants to invest in a particular stock, but needs the $6,500 next year, is to invest only the $3,500 he doesn't need and keep the $6,500 as cash. He can play all he wants with the $3,500, but the cash he does need is guaranteed to be there next year.
 
Originally Posted By: Oldmoparguy1
Hi folks,

I have been retired for many years and am partially disabled.

I currently have $10k cash available in my IRA. I'm looking to buy something with a max dividend. I have been looking at a number of high div stocks and ARR may be a good option. I expect to keep this stock for up to a year because I will need $6500 sometime next year. Reason for this is that I withdraw the max each year and deposit it in my wife's IRA. Because of our age difference, I can do this for another 3 years. So far, I have moved $30,500 in this way.

Let me add that I have a comprehensive financial plan and a good income stream right now. My wife works full time and is planning to retire sometime after Feb 2015, so we don't need any additional income.

I would appreciate any info/suggestions anyone may have.

Wayne


Im not sure that putting all eggs in one basket (e.g. single stock) is a good move, but diversification also will also potentially reduce your yield. If you diversify to different industries, some will obviously yield better than others.

One can argue that ARR is pretty far down in the dumps, and may not have much more downside - but it could also slash div. Still, as one stock of many, you may be doing OK.

Id probably look to diversify between something financial (ARR or equiv), something shipping (NMM?), something energy (LINE/LNCO?) and maybe some kind of utility stock (SO? AT? etc).

Rising tide raises all boats, and sinking tide does the opposite, so you still have risk, but you have less risk than exposure to one industry or company.

Another option is an ETF that specializes in div paying stocks or something else with a yield (emerging market debt??).

But do your due diligence and be comfortable with what youre buying, dont just go off of tickers or ideas that someone posts up...
 
“The vast majority of individual investors will not beat the market through skill,” said Terrance Odean, a finance professor at the University of California, Berkeley, who has studied investor behaviour extensively.

“So if they beat the market, it will be through luck – and luck can go either way.”

Besides lacking the skills to outperform, the instincts of individual investors also tend to work against them. That’s why Mr. Odean found that investors who traded stocks most actively underperformed the market more than those who traded infrequently.

“If an investor bought an index fund tied to the S&P 500, I would say that that investor is a very good investor, but with a zero-per-cent chance of beating the market,” Mr. Odean said.

“In other words, I don’t think beating the market should be the objective of most investors.”
 
Thanks guys, I appreciate the info. That's what I needed to hear. I'm 76 years old and have been doing my required distributions for 6 years. I don't have any need for the money so I've been taking the $6000 out and doing a max contribution to my wife's IRA. She is 66 and still working full time. this gives me a bigger pot to invest and it is doing well. She also has a 401k which is also doing well. Because of out age difference and my health issues, I'm cleaning up our finances so she will be taken care of in that respect.

Thanks again,

Wayne
 
Originally Posted By: Warstud
The market is getting close to my buy point. May nibble tomorrow.


I agree. The Russel 2000 is at support, SP500 broke a fairly important trendline, but is at the 100 day moving average which has been support over the last 2 mini corrections this year, Nasdaq is at a support trendline. However. I think this will be the sell the news event when the dumb [censored] in Washington come to an agreement, and the market will get a 200 day moving average correction eventually, which is needed to propel it to higher highs in the future. I'm still bullish.

I changed the oil in my crystal ball this week!
 
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