ICE vehicles will be 75% of US car market in 2025

[demarpaint]

Yes as my posts indicated USA EV sales up 7.3% for the year. Hardly gangbusters.
IN your article "

• "Tesla sold around 634,000 EVs, a 5.6% drop from 2023. "

The Chart you posted is not yearly.
I call these numbers pathetic considering the buyer gets a free $7,500 at the time of sale to use as a down payment. No argument from me if you think this is good, except I dont.
Being you did post a quarterly report, here are the one sole EV maker in the USA for 2024 sales number by quarter. I would call this more like in the sewer than the toilet. Pick a number, Tesla sales are not as exact since they can only be estimated. The only American Car company that I know of that doesnt publish how many cars they sell in the USA.
View attachment 259941
Source
https://www.factorywarrantylist.com/sales-report.html#google_vignette

I have a feeling yesterday was a changing point for ICE and EVs, better for ICE and Hybrids. I can see things being pushed out benefiting them for quite some time.

 

[Vercingetorix]

Yes as my posts indicated USA EV sales up 7.3% for the year. Hardly gangbusters.
IN your article "

• "Tesla sold around 634,000 EVs, a 5.6% drop from 2023. "

The Chart you posted is not yearly.
I call these numbers pathetic considering the buyer gets a free $7,500 at the time of sale to use as a down payment. No argument from me if you think this is good, except I dont.
Being you did post a quarterly report, here are the one sole EV maker in the USA for 2024 sales number by quarter. I would call this more like in the sewer than the toilet. Pick a number, Tesla sales are not as exact since they can only be estimated. The only American Car company that I know of that doesnt publish how many cars they sell in the USA.
View attachment 259941
Source
https://www.factorywarrantylist.com/sales-report.html#google_vignette

So what? EV sales are not in the toilet.

 

[Rmay635703]

In the USA most SUV's and minivans - including small CUV's - are "light trucks". Stupid I know. Thats where your 84% comes from. 84% is high, its been about 80% for years, but it isn't telling you what you think. Its telling you that people don't want sedans.

My 2.2M number was simply summing the number for F150, Silverado, Sierra, Ram, Tundra and Titan. I guess I could have included cybertruck.

Your state numbers are interesting. I will need to try to find data for my state.

Sedans have minimal if any discounts and are at record high transaction prices.

Light trucks are selling with heavy discounts

Buyers do fall for $20,000 off schemes when they could easily buy a sedan for the discount but people appear to be chasing incentives more than raw price.

The fact transaction prices have fallen to a $25,xxx average is a large downward change from even 2 years ago

The auto market is fine trope falls flat when half of the auto industry is loosing money, downsizing, selling off assets or out and out wanting a buyer/bailout

 

[JeffKeryk]

So what? EV sales are not in the toilet.

I'm pretty sure AG did not mean it to sound that way; he can correct me if I am mistaken.
Product sales are cyclical.

Regardless, the sales numbers are only part of the story. Look at Tesla, they offered everything from free Supercharging to zero % financing and still sold less cars YoY. The reasons behind the sales numbers is what matters. Buyers were waiting for the Juniper refresh. I was about to buy a 1st gen M3P to replace our Mid Range but held out when the Highland was announced. Then I jumped!

Sales are cyclical. Short term results are just a point in time. Maybe even if they are in the toilet, so to speak...

 

[Torrid]

I dont know, it is why sometimes I sound so crazy in my posts. It's not just automobiles, it's everything in the media. This content creators, so called news reporters dont even know what they are talking about many times. Hopefully you know me by now. I try not to take positions but it sounds like I am because I point out the stupid media stuff that we choose to read as fact.
I dont watch much news anymore because it drives me NuTs !
For fun, I like digging for facts using my computer. Almost like some people enjoy jigsaw puzzles, it's a real challenge and also in a way, a fun way to learn new things.

It's sad because that's what it takes to actually get facts. It seems like we have to look beyond the story nearly every time. It's usually not what they're saying, but what is being left out. I'm sure someone compiles this data and then news sources share that info which gets reported. I'm not sure I'd even say it's intentional. We have a 24 hour news cycle so I'm sure the goal is to get the story together as quickly as possible and get it out.

 

[vwmaniaman]

We in western Kentucky only have a handful of charging stations for electric vehicles. Pickup trucks that devour mud holes are king here.

 

[Snagglefoot]

The disassembly of the EV mandates and related regs has started. You can check it yourself in the press. I believe the 2035 goals for EVs are gone and there will be no more Federal funds for chargers. The $7500 rebate was a Congress thing, so it might be a while before that is gone. Don't shoot the messenger!

 

[JeffKeryk]

The disassembly of the EV mandates and related regs has started. You can check it yourself in the press. I believe the 2035 goals for EVs are gone and there will be no more Federal funds for chargers. The $7500 rebate was a Congress thing, so it might be a while before that is gone. Don't shoot the messenger!

The US market will be affected; the rest of the world not so much. Of course there may be new issues in other regions as well.

 

[SC Maintenance]

Sure, but we are in a world market. Picking a single market muddies the waters just like combining pure EV and hybrids.
The current trend will be to reduce government push for emissions standards, but for how long?

Interesting times ahead... All good, AG.

Were not talking about a world market because the original post was about an article specific to the US market, But if you like.

It’s not a world market. Its a bunch of the same OEM's participating in different markets.

China is the single biggest market - about 35% of global sales. There going EV by CCP edict. They want to own the production of EV's on a global scale, and there starting with their own market using primarily state sponsored entities. What happens there is not organic. Honestly though it likely makes sense, given they have no Oil of their own, and they don't mind operating coal fired electric plants.

Europe is the second largest market and also has declining EV sales. Were 14.6% in 2023 and only 13.6% in 2024. There also trying to play the game and saying a hybrid is a EV. Clearly that tells you all you need to know. https://www.reuters.com/business/au...vertakes-stellantis-dec-acea-says-2025-01-21/

The developing world is decidedly not EV, for obvious reasons. In India you can get a Hyundai Venue with a 1500cc, or 91 cubic inches - 4 cylinder Diesel and hand crank windows. Somehow I bet its a better car than the one they sell here?

 

[UncleDave]

The disassembly of the EV mandates and related regs has started. You can check it yourself in the press. I believe the 2035 goals for EVs are gone and there will be no more Federal funds for chargers. The $7500 rebate was a Congress thing, so it might be a while before that is gone. Don't shoot the messenger!

I was never for a mandate, glad to see it gone.
Even Elon Musk said there shouldn't be a charging subsidy so this is great.

(Both of these moves also help Elon/Tesla tremendously as everyone else now has to spend their own money to compete with him and guys just starting their amortization cycles in earnest and not yet profitable now have to compete harder - this is a huge kick in the balls to Ford and GM. )

Thing is not much is actually going to change in the ICE world.
Ending the EV mandate doesn't mean we get the cars and trucks we really want.
(no AFM/DI/GPF/DPF large displacement NA)

Manufacturers are still going to build to World or California standards.

Ice is going to pause its relentless slide down, but then continue in a short while.

EV's will continue to get better more reliable, and cheaper.

 

[alarmguy]

I was never for a mandate, glad to see it gone.
Even Elon Musk said there shouldn't be a charging subsidy so this is great.

(Both of these moves also help Elon/Tesla tremendously as everyone else now has to spend their own money to compete with him and guys just starting their amortization cycles in earnest and not yet profitable now have to compete harder - this is a huge kick in the balls to Ford and GM. )

Thing is not much is actually going to change in the ICE world.
Ending the EV mandate doesn't mean we get the cars and trucks we really want. (no DI/GPF/DPF large displacement NA)

Manufacturers are still going to build to World or California standards.

Ice is going to pause its relentless slide down, but then continue in a short while.

EV's will continue to get better more reliable, and cheaper.

Tesla sales were down in the USA for 2024 which included a free taxpayer gift of $7,500 to buy their cars. I seriously doubt charging an extra $7,500 per car is going to help Tesla sell more.
IF (and I stress if) we do away with the $7,500 taxpayer gift

 

[UncleDave]

Tesla sales were down in the USA for 2024 which included a free taxpayer gift of $7,500 to buy their cars. I seriously doubt charging an extra $7,500 per car is going to help Tesla sell more.
IF (and I stress if) we do away with the $7,500 taxpayer gift

Let me try to rephrase this - it's not that losing the 7500 helps Tesla sell more.

Losing the 7500 hurts the others guys more than it does Tesla.

Everyone else's EV's got the same gift.
Everyone in the market has to compete for buyers.
Tesla can lower their price and still make money.

No one else we know of is making money yet, so lowering their already negative prices to compete will be very hard on them.

Only ford has the juevos to split their books and share what they are making with the world.

 

[UncleDave]

I have a feeling yesterday was a changing point for ICE and EVs, better for ICE and Hybrids. I can see things being pushed out benefiting them for quite some time.

We can only hope it's a twofer.

I'm not sure ending the mandate means we also get what we want from ICE.

Do you think we'll get the Ice cars and trucks we really want now devoid of all the stuff like DPF/DEF/GPF/AFM/ DI/ start stop, and forced small displacement turbos?

 

[alarmguy]

Let me try to rephrase this - it's not that losing the 7500 helps Tesla sell more.

Losing the 7500 hurts the others guys more than it does Tesla.

Everyone else's EV's got the same gift.
Everyone in the market has to compete for buyers.
Tesla can lower their price and still make money.

No one else we know of is making money yet, so lowering their already negative prices to compete will be very hard on them.

Only ford has the juevos to split their books and share what they are making with the world.

I’m not so sure however no matter what side of the fence you’re on we won’t know until the 7500 goes away if it goes away.
Legacy manufacturers have a profitable gasoline engine business.
Tesla does not and EV sales only make up a tiny portion of the legacy makers marketplace.
Tesla already suffering a loss of sales in 2024 and it’sentire business model is reliant on electric vehicle selling is my feeling.

Electric vehicle sales growth in 2024 was 7.5%
In 2023 it was 43%.
There is a lot of unknowns out there

 

[demarpaint]

We can only hope it's a twofer.

I'm not sure ending the mandate means we also get what we want from ICE.

Do you think we'll get the Ice cars and trucks we really want now devoid of all the stuff like DPF/DEF/GPF/AFM/ DI/ start stop, and forced small displacement turbos?

Probably not, although things might stay the way they are and not get much worse. We might also see the V8 stick around longer, and EVs won't be rammed down our throats, along with forcing us to cook with electric, and make heat and hot water with electric. I see it as a win. Drill baby, drill!!

IMO sadly the diesel in cars and light trucks is pretty much done, DI no comment, and stop/start can be disabled.

 

[JeffKeryk]

I was never for a mandate, glad to see it gone.
Even Elon Musk said there shouldn't be a charging subsidy so this is great.

(Both of these moves also help Elon/Tesla tremendously as everyone else now has to spend their own money to compete with him and guys just starting their amortization cycles in earnest and not yet profitable now have to compete harder - this is a huge kick in the balls to Ford and GM. )

Thing is not much is actually going to change in the ICE world.
Ending the EV mandate doesn't mean we get the cars and trucks we really want.
(no AFM/DI/GPF/DPF large displacement NA)

Manufacturers are still going to build to World or California standards.

Ice is going to pause its relentless slide down, but then continue in a short while.

EV's will continue to get better more reliable, and cheaper.

There is not doubt Tesla wins in the near term when the tax credit expires. It will help the Mustang Mach-E as it is made in Mexico, but the Mach-E is hardly competition to the Model Y.

Regardless, this is a short term business issue to be dealt with. The bigger problem by far is, the big winner is China.

 

[gfh77665]

Ice is going to pause its relentless slide down, but then continue in a short while.

"Relentless slide". Um, OK.

I think ICE sales will grow in the next 4 years, and that could extend to 8 (or 12) years depending.

 

[demarpaint]

"Relentless slide". Um, OK.

I think ICE sales will grow in the next 4 years, and that could extend to 8 (or 12) years depending.

My thoughts exactly.

 

[JeffKeryk]

"Relentless slide". Um, OK.

I think ICE sales will grow in the next 4 years, and that could extend to 8 (or 12) years depending.

Perhaps. I am curious, what makes you think this way?

 

[UncleDave]

"Relentless slide". Um, OK.

I think ICE sales will grow in the next 4 years, and that could extend to 8 (or 12) years depending.

Let me clarify,

I think Ice can still grow - I dont think the cars are getting better.

The relentless slide is in them being ever more complex and hard to live with - (DPF/GPF/DI/ Dual injection/ small displacement turbos- start stop)

I believe EV's will continue to get better and cheaper and ice will continue to be harder to live with and more expensive and impart more compromise over time.