ICE vehicles will be 75% of US car market in 2025
- Thread starter Snagglefoot
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My career was in data. There is truth in data, if you look at it objectively and challenge it. Otherwise you muddy the waters, at best.
In my work, I was always a stickler for definitions. You have to be in order to communicate effectively.
I would not lump hybrids with pure EVs; I am not sure why this article does. Detail counts!
Bottom line, kudos for adding clarity in your post; lumping hybrids in the "EV" numbers paints a poor picture and certainly does not allow for meaningful EV analysis.
I will not consider wifey's Lex RX450h an EV until I can charge it with our solar panels. It just gets good gas mileage for what it is.
I haven't heard anything, but its a law, backed by an agency. They can be rolled back, but I think at minimum they have to go through a 90 day comment period and some other stuff. I don't think you can just say its so. But I have been wrong before.
Even if they do - to a degree its irrelevant. They tried to roll stuff back in 2017, but the OEM's said "look, might be this way for 3 years, then new boss shows up and were back to the original". You can't build a product road map like this, so they just kept down the same path. Additionally, the rest of the world is on the agenda, and most companies are looking for a global platform.
Possibly you see a little different mix. Toyota for example its speculated that the redesigned Rav4 in 2026 will be hybrid only. If Cafe changed, its quite possible they reverse that and continue to sell both.
One thing I hope they all take into account is the EV rebates will go away, for the simple fact were broke. Hard to defeat math.
The auto market in general is crashing.
Light truck sales went up in December ~4% but that's deceiving because they were sold under mostly non-traditional circumstances including due to write offs, bond buys of repos and all sorts of behaviors that show a very unhealthy truck and suv market that is Just trying to unload aged “new” inventory nobody wants.
It’s also worth noting that EV sales have been impacted by insurance and registration.
My state was frozen with nearly zero growth in registrations for plug ins and hybrids almost 5 years after taxes/insurance went up.
It’s only recently people started buying them again relating mostly to pandemic related migration into the state.
The general theme is like any technology product we have achieved “saturation “ amongst early plug ins adopters who are willing/able to live with the cost/limitations. The early PC market hit this point in the 80’s having a major downturn followed by rapid extreme innovation and cost cutting.
Hybrid’s are finally past early adoption phase and expanding, it will take some time for beater with a heater EVs to be cheap and easy enough to maintain with all functions hacked and understood for aftermarket support to expand downward.
Incentives it’s worth noting won’t overcome excessive insurance and registration costs, folks who buy $1500 cars are extremely sensative to both.
But likewise the folks who buy EVs aren’t affected by the credit, sales went up when the credit was temporarily unavailable for 80% of EV sales.
84% of vehicle sales in December were light trucks, indicating an extremely weak auto market with extensive discounting and write downs to write high value items off the books .
16m vehicle sales is 7 million lower than peak auto sales and apart of a long term trend.
My own state out of a peak of nearly 3 million registered vehicles before mandatory insurance is down to 1.7m registered vehicles and shows the trend of fewer private cars, fewer private leisure miles, fewer cars per capita
Many states treat hybrids (non-plug ins) the same as an EV with increased taxes.
I vehemently oppose this wrong headed logic but .gov in most ways wants to unfairly expand the EV tax base.
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The EV tax credit will go away one way or another. This will reduce EV sales, at least in the short term, putting more downward pressure on margins. Tesla wins because their strong margins can absorb the blow. Everyone else struggles in their already losing EV business.
Buy TSLA.
Auto sales are not crashing. Nor are they in the toilet.
There not crashing, but they are in the toilet. There a couple million units less than the long term average. The car business is a Capex heavy business - R&D and facilities. The incremental cost to make another vehicle is near zero, and where all the profit is. A couple million units less industry wide is pretty much profit killing.
The industry is in the process of right sizing to this new norm. It won't be pretty for some. It might work out well for others - weaker competitors.
In the USA most SUV's and minivans - including small CUV's - are "light trucks". Stupid I know. Thats where your 84% comes from. 84% is high, its been about 80% for years, but it isn't telling you what you think. Its telling you that people don't want sedans.
My 2.2M number was simply summing the number for F150, Silverado, Sierra, Ram, Tundra and Titan. I guess I could have included cybertruck.
Your state numbers are interesting. I will need to try to find data for my state.
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I believe it’s more to pivot to gas on new trucks not convert. Good move on producer to engineer alternatives and guessing will make some good coin on deal since it’s locked contract.
Did anyone say they were? (honest question) Myself I did mention EV sales in the toilet not vehicle sales.
Automobiles are less to the same being sold now than two decades ago in the USA and there are 50 million more people in the USA now. Im personally not interested in breaking down the other 8 billion people in other countries. Even your world graph shows significantly less cars sold in the world than a decade ago.
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The new vehicle emissions standards can be considered scrapped too which would have forced the legacy companies to produce more EVs by 2027 and 2032 also punitive MPG requirements we can see going out the window.
... This is what is on the chopping block first, surprisingly no mention that I know of to repeal the Tax Credit. But that could be put in the final plan once the plan is drawn up as I posted below
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No, an executive order was issued to review all the restrictions of the last 4 years and come up with a plan to remove the Emissions requirements that were to take place in 2027 and 2032. However there will be a lot more to it than just that. IT also might attempt to restrict state laws pertaining to any mandate regarding EV sales.
SO nothing is done here (technically) he has directed the proper channels to come up with the documentation and plan.
I think safe to say it is in the works a revamping eliminating and/or changing what was put into effect previously.
From NY Post today "orders include reversing a policy of pushing carmakers to make 50% of their output be electric vehicles by 2030"
What has been done, effective immediately is a freeze on taxpayer Federal Funds that were to be used for building public charging stations.
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I dont know, it is why sometimes I sound so crazy in my posts. It's not just automobiles, it's everything in the media. This content creators, so called news reporters dont even know what they are talking about many times. Hopefully you know me by now. I try not to take positions but it sounds like I am because I point out the stupid media stuff that we choose to read as fact.
I dont watch much news anymore because it drives me NuTs !
For fun, I like digging for facts using my computer. Almost like some people enjoy jigsaw puzzles, it's a real challenge and also in a way, a fun way to learn new things.
Look at the last graph, specifically the blue bars on the right side, and fully electric sales worldwide in 2024 were up 25% over 2023.
My post was about the USA which is 1/3rd of 25% on data that is over a year old 2023
Sure, but we are in a world market. Picking a single market muddies the waters just like combining pure EV and hybrids.
The current trend will be to reduce government push for emissions standards, but for how long?
Interesting times ahead... All good, AG.
I'm hoping they push the emission standards out for at least the next 12 years.
Maybe longer if things go well. Yes as my posts indicated USA EV sales up 7.3% for the year. Hardly gangbusters.
IN your article "
- "Tesla sold around 634,000 EVs, a 5.6% drop from 2023. "
I call these numbers pathetic considering the buyer gets a free $7,500 at the time of sale to use as a down payment. No argument from me if you think this is good, except I dont.
Being you did post a quarterly report, here are the one sole EV maker in the USA for 2024 sales number by quarter. I would call this more like in the sewer than the toilet. Pick a number, Tesla sales are not as exact since they can only be estimated. The only American Car company that I know of that doesnt publish how many cars they sell in the USA.
Source
https://www.factorywarrantylist.com/sales-report.html#google_vignette
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I dont agree, the USA is one heck of a market and unique in the world. Besides that we can pick apart the world to fit a debate. Example, you can buy an EV in China for less than $13,000 USD. I use the Harley Davidson example too, Honda blows away sales of Harleys world wide, they sell millions but the vast majority are Honda Mopeds and referred to as motorcycles.
Emission standards? Non issue is my thinking, they are gone forever, now that we know it was to force EV adoption. I think the biggest danger is not emission standards but EV $7,500 point of purchase giveaways. IT will kill the EV market, so for how long will these giveaways last is my thinking.
All good, enjoy conversation and honestly, no fast and hard position on my part (and I suspect yours too) its interesting and will be interesting to see how it unfolds.
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