ICE vehicles will be 75% of US car market in 2025

[Trav]

They are talking about possibly converting EV USPS duck trucks to gasoline.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmon...nt-usps-trucks-prepared-switch-gas-trump.html

 

[alarmguy]

Well...they would probably want to build many of the subassemblies in China, especially the batteries. But those would also come under the proposed tarriffs. They could build a US based supply chain but that would be a lot more work than just building a facility for assembling vehicles. Considering the political climate it probably doesn't make sense for them from a risk-reward perspective.

Oh, yes, I agree.
Was just saying that if they truly wanted too, I just dont know how big BYD is and their resources. An example is BMW is spending 1.7 billion dollars in South Carolina on a new battery plant for the EVs that are produced here.
Gotta LOVE South Carolina, this is what happens when you build a business friendly state.
BMW invested over 12 billion dollars here and never mind all the workers they support and the families of those workers. I know, my son works for them.

https://www.bmwgroup-werke.com/spar...tery-Assembly-Factory-in-South-Carolina1.html

 

[dogememe]

Yes, well that is the elephant in the room. When there isn't enough electricity for AI data centers, and there isn't enough Electricity for the manufacturing we need to re-shore because of our position with the globalized world, are we going to let EV owners continue to buy subsidized grid electricity to charge EV's on the cheap?

I hope we're smarter than that and not allow the EV owners to buy the electric on the cheap if that does in fact play out. The $7,500 incentive [soon to go away] was enough imo. Too much in fact.

My $700 PG&E bill sure doesn't feel subsidized.

 

[demarpaint]

My $700 PG&E bill sure doesn't feel subsidized.

It feels sickening I bet. I'd be moving to another state.

 

[OVERKILL]

My $700 PG&E bill sure doesn't feel subsidized.

That's because you are the one doing the subsidizing.

 

[JeffKeryk]

My $700 PG&E bill sure doesn't feel subsidized.

Not sure if you rent or own. I've never had a bill like that, but crazy high PG&E rates made a solar project the biggest no brainier in the world. In my long term plan, I thought I might get an EV one day, but the house electricity bill was the primary concern.
I figured rates would continue to increase, but not like they have... No one did.

Sometimes you get lucky.

 

[dogememe]

It feels sickening I bet. I'd be moving to another state.

It used to be reasonable... and this chart doesn't even tell the whole story (just the first one I found online), it's basically $0.50/kwh + fees at this point.

 

[SC Maintenance]

My $700 PG&E bill sure doesn't feel subsidized.

I am sure it does not. The subsidies as mentioned are indirect. They come in the form of incentives, deferrals, direct transfers and loan guarantees, to name a few.

PG&E combining with some of your state's laws are a special form a stupid. In the end your still paying for not only mis-management, but the Camp Fire. Not saying PG&E didn't deserve there fate - they were corrupt as well - but so are most utilities. We in South Carolina know - our government bankrupted our once great utility also, then sold it to Dominion for $1. In the end its always we the people holding the bag.

 

[Rmay635703]

I don’t agree.
US salaries are higher than that of China, there’s no comparison. That is why every electronic device in your house is made there including the screen you’re reading this on.

Domestic manufacturers have to recoup their investment in electric vehicles. Even in China, a Tesla sells approximately the same price as here.
The Chinese government supports a lot of of their industries and the American taxpayer right now is supporting the domestic electric vehicle industry.
Why do we need a cheap electric vehicle when American don’t buy cheap gasoline vehicles?

By the way, I don’t disagree on the tariffs. I am not a fan of tariffs, however that’s a double edge sword.
Chinese medium income is roughly 25% less than the USA income, so do we want to decimate our auto industry and beholden to China a communist country for their products?
I do believe I should be free to purchase what I want and at the same time it takes some nerve to be giving away $7500 in taxpayer money to support the electric vehicle industry.

I also think you are absolutely wrong that Americans overwhelmingly want electric vehicles. It’s a special use vehicle. They are small and too many people inconvenient.

I’ll gladly pay for convenience and to me the savings are not too great. Last thing I care about is the cost of gasoline, I am certainly not going to take long road trips and have to stop and sit for 15 minutes to charge up a car and a smaller one at that depending on trip multiple times.

When I mention special use for our second car an electric vehicle would be ideal, but you are right there is no way on earth. I am going to pay the same price for an electric vehicle as a gasoline vehicle.

I just proved that very fact, we could’ve purchased a 2025 electric Equinox with the government rebate of $7500 for about the same price as the 2025 gasoline version that we purchased. I mean, what better example is there than that?

The dealer had both in stock. We sat in each car and played around with it for about a half hour each.
I consider myself the typical buyer. I wanted a vehicle that I could run to visit any one of my kids on a 4 Hour Rd. trip without having to charge my car. But the bottom line is my wife overwhelmingly preferred the gasoline version with its higher stance and larger size. She did not want a sports car equinox she wanted an SUV.

You say American car manufacturers can do it. Well then, why doesn’t Tesla have an equal car at China price is being sold here?

Same goes for Volkswagen electric vehicles they can’t give them away here and now they’re trying to lease last year’s model for $149 a month.

Dodge can’t give away 2500’s some are brand new rotting 3 years on the lot.

VW EVs don’t check the boxes for most and they come with all the VW baggage

I am not sure that is at all accurate. Prius was dead maybe (yellow bar), but hybrids were not, although granted they were still a small number. In fact when I bought our Rav4 in 2019, I got an e-price from where I eventually bought. I was told I could have $5500 off MSRP for ICE (which around here includes the port adders), or I could get a hybrid at MSRP but I would have to wait on it. In California they were paying well above list for hybrid Rav4 according to the boards. This was pre-pandemic - so above list was considered nuts. For the $8K difference, clearly I bought ice.

Plug in hybrids are a bit of a red herring. Worst or best of both worlds depending on perspective - but definitely expensive comparatively. Again with Rav4 Prime (plug in hybrid) even getting one was challenging for years. I don't know about now?

View attachment 258850

Worth noting, triple the models but a 20% drop in sales…

When Ford drops 20% F-series sales the sky is falling and the market failing.

 

[Rmay635703]

They? Who's they? Don't answer, I will do so for you.

No, Oshkosh will do pretty much anything for the feds that the feds ask for. This isn't exactly newsworthy. They see the shifting political winds and so made an unsolicited offer as to try to keep the contract for new mail trucks from going back out to the bidding process.

This is 100% about keeping the current mail truck contract and nothing to do with EV vs non-EV. I've dealt with government purchasing for most of my career working alternately as a direct employee and a contractor, and also as a provider of staff aug talent, and this is how it works. Oshkosh probably paid for this aritcle to get the sentiment out there in the public space. They don't want to lose this contract.

1.5 years ago they would have been supplying 80% gas vehicles.

The vehicle was designed explicitly to have a swappable drivetrain.

The issue for the mailman is all this flip flopping and bs prevents him from getting his replacement vehicle as the supply chain has to re-align to the demand.

 

[Brons2]

VW EVs don’t check the boxes for most and they come with all the VW baggage

I like the ID.4, I've driven my parents' quite a lot and for the right price I would have taken one home.

But both the local VW dealers that are within 30 miles of me like to play games and I'm not here for it. I'm not going to walk into the dealership so they can run their playbook on me. I'm willing to come sign papers and pick up the keys but that's it. If you don't want to do business via texts and emails, your dealership is not for me. I've got an extremely busy schedule outside of work and I'm not going to waste a day of my precious free time going back and forth with the guy behind the curtain. I know these things aren't selling. Make me a deal I can't refuse and respect my time, and you will be rewarded. They didn't and don't, so they weren't.

I never set foot on the dealer's lot in getting my Lightning delivered. Just the way I like it.

 

[OVERKILL]

It used to be reasonable... and this chart doesn't even tell the whole story (just the first one I found online), it's basically $0.50/kwh + fees at this point.

View attachment 258968

Yes, well you start paying people $0.38/kWh for their rooftop solar output and all of a sudden the cost for everybody else has to go up, up, UP to cover it. We had the same problem here, but on a smaller scale, with the GEA. Somebody has to pay for it, and that somebody, if you aren't taking advantage of the scheme, is you.

 

[Brons2]

Yes, well you start paying people $0.38/kWh for their rooftop solar output and all of a sudden the cost for everybody else has to go up, up, UP to cover it. We had the same problem here, but on a smaller scale, with the GEA. Somebody has to pay for it, and that somebody, if you aren't taking advantage of the scheme, is you.

Is that what they are paying in CA for residential solar output? Wow that is really high. There are utility scale solar projects in the Atacama desert that are producing electricity at less than 3 cents per KWH.

 

[OVERKILL]

Is that what they are paying in CA for residential solar output? Wow that is really high. There are utility scale solar projects in the Atacama desert that are producing solar at less than 3 cents per KWH.

Yeah, NEM 1 and 2 were between 32 and 40 cents IIRC. I know what @JeffKeryk is getting from his and it was lucrative. Unfortunately the flip side of that is that it's funded by the people that didn't do it.

 

[PandaBear]

It's not just you, a lot of people agree that car prices are out of hand in the USA. I mean the average new car prices at $48K are over 50% of the median yearly household income in the US which I did a web search to show is $80,020 for 2024.

Some other Googling indcated the "middle class" is considered to be from $40,010 to $160,040 per year, the average new car price is over 100% of the lower end of that.

We've built our cities around the car. We need affordable cars for the masses.

40k a year is not middle class, that's poverty in 2024. Currently I think you have to be at least 80k a year to be middle class these days, more likely 100k.

 

[cptbarkey]

We need affordable cars for the masses.

We do, but thankfully we still have relatively cheap gas that has defied most current events, which makes EV ownership a very, very long recoup time. For some reason folks still buy their $40k+ EVs not paying attention to that fact.

 

[Torrid]

We do, but thankfully we still have relatively cheap gas that has defied most current events, which makes EV ownership a very, very long recoup time. For some reason folks still buy their $40k+ EVs not paying attention to that fact.

Plenty of people are buying $70k ICE vehicles not realizing there are $40k EVs available. What's your point?

 

[cptbarkey]

Plenty of people are buying $70k ICE vehicles not realizing there are $40k EVs available. What's your point?

Thats their problem, and yours.

 

[LavaRand]

Plenty of people are buying $70k ICE vehicles not realizing there are $40k EVs available. What's your point?

I love this one. Every other vehicle I see on the road seems to be a $60,000 pickup whose capabilities will never be needed, often with $5000 of mods that serve no practical purpose but to reduce the gas mileage and make it less functional. But when we talk about EVs, I'm supposed to believe every US car consumer is a ruthlessly practical penny pincher that makes cost spreadsheets and justifies their purchase with dispassionate utilitarianism.

 

[Torrid]

Thats their problem, and yours.

I've seen what's available under this price. No thanks.