ICE vehicles will be 75% of US car market in 2025
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That too would be disingenuous.
We need to remember circa 2019 PHEV and hybrids were almost dead with much lower sales.
And a decade before that people were more enraged by hybrids than they currently are with EVs.
This boom in that segment which mostly lacks .gov incentives is good if we want to reduce foreign fuel use. (Since you are concerned with the $7500 hybrids never get and PHEVs rarely get due to sourcing and battery size requirements). AKA 4 PHEV models get a partial credit out of the 33 models in the us.
It’s funny how the Prius target moved to a Tesla target.
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I hope there are more electric cars. Why not, then there is less gas used.
It’s four years. We have that system as everyone knows. The papers are held in the Archives. People in office come and go as the papers say they do. As population ages, desires change. I would say electric vehicles are going to be it, sooner or later. Doesn’t bother me one way or the other.
I am not sure that is at all accurate. Prius was dead maybe (yellow bar), but hybrids were not, although granted they were still a small number. In fact when I bought our Rav4 in 2019, I got an e-price from where I eventually bought. I was told I could have $5500 off MSRP for ICE (which around here includes the port adders), or I could get a hybrid at MSRP but I would have to wait on it. In California they were paying well above list for hybrid Rav4 according to the boards. This was pre-pandemic - so above list was considered nuts. For the $8K difference, clearly I bought ice.
Plug in hybrids are a bit of a red herring. Worst or best of both worlds depending on perspective - but definitely expensive comparatively. Again with Rav4 Prime (plug in hybrid) even getting one was challenging for years. I don't know about now?
Yes, I guess locomotives are now EV's. The railroads have been green since what - the 40's? Who knew!!!
It's not quite that simple. Depends on your ability to charge.
Now, in the Bay Area condos and apartments have been installing chargers, slowly but surely. And companies install them as an employee perk. I am not sure when other parts of the country will follow suit.
But make no mistake, charging at home using that big Nuclear Reactor up in the sky ain't a bad way to go.
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I don’t agree.
US salaries are higher than that of China, there’s no comparison. That is why every electronic device in your house is made there including the screen you’re reading this on.
Domestic manufacturers have to recoup their investment in electric vehicles. Even in China, a Tesla sells approximately the same price as here.
The Chinese government supports a lot of of their industries and the American taxpayer right now is supporting the domestic electric vehicle industry.
Why do we need a cheap electric vehicle when American don’t buy cheap gasoline vehicles?
By the way, I don’t disagree on the tariffs. I am not a fan of tariffs, however that’s a double edge sword.
Chinese medium income is roughly 25% less than the USA income, so do we want to decimate our auto industry and beholden to China a communist country for their products?
I do believe I should be free to purchase what I want and at the same time it takes some nerve to be giving away $7500 in taxpayer money to support the electric vehicle industry.
I also think you are absolutely wrong that Americans overwhelmingly want electric vehicles. It’s a special use vehicle. They are small and too many people inconvenient.
I’ll gladly pay for convenience and to me the savings are not too great. Last thing I care about is the cost of gasoline, I am certainly not going to take long road trips and have to stop and sit for 15 minutes to charge up a car and a smaller one at that depending on trip multiple times.
When I mention special use for our second car an electric vehicle would be ideal, but you are right there is no way on earth. I am going to pay the same price for an electric vehicle as a gasoline vehicle.
I just proved that very fact, we could’ve purchased a 2025 electric Equinox with the government rebate of $7500 for about the same price as the 2025 gasoline version that we purchased. I mean, what better example is there than that?
The dealer had both in stock. We sat in each car and played around with it for about a half hour each.
I consider myself the typical buyer. I wanted a vehicle that I could run to visit any one of my kids on a 4 Hour Rd. trip without having to charge my car. But the bottom line is my wife overwhelmingly preferred the gasoline version with its higher stance and larger size. She did not want a sports car equinox she wanted an SUV.
You say American car manufacturers can do it. Well then, why doesn’t Tesla have an equal car at China price is being sold here?
After all, that’s all they make is electric vehicles, so why aren’t they taking over the market?
In fact, even with the government giving away $7500 to buy a Tesla for the first time in almost 15 years Tesla sales growth in the United States went into negative territory for the year 2024.
Yes that is correct. Tesla sold less cars in 2024 then in 2023 and the first time in their history since around 2011 they had zero growth in the USA. They have been slashing prices and profit margins plus taxpayer $7500 and yet Americans did not buy their cars.
Same goes for Volkswagen electric vehicles they can’t give them away here and now they’re trying to lease last year’s model for $149 a month.
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I can see why they don't want the BYD cars in the US, it is a much better looking car inside and out, the performance difference is not worth talking about. Waiting for someone to post a video of a Tesla beating the BYD in a drag race (like anyone cares) or some more button pics. LOL
https://www.byd.com/eu/blog/How-the-BYD-SEAL-is-redefining-the-electric-saloon
I went to big German industrial Automation trade show in November. All anyone could talk about was BYD and other Chinese EV manufacturers eating VW and others lunch. They can't tariff China because Germany is also an exporter, and China one of their largest customers. German car industry is in big trouble. But of course westerners taught China how to build cars, so you reap what you sow I guess.
That's a true side effect of tariffs, they'll just return the favor. We're going to find out the hard way though. Frankly I'd rather have more locally built car for employment reasons, but just like most major large production vehicles, I'm sure if BYD came here they would build some cars here. We've given up so much manufacturing to China that I think it is inevitable and I don't think tariffs are a fix for all of the outsourcing that has taken place. Business has created this situation and we will get the results that entails as you mention.
All we stand to do is lose. It's China's market now.
+1 ^^
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We also taught them how to build nuke plants, and now they are going gangbusters on them.
Yes, well that is the elephant in the room. When there isn't enough electricity for AI data centers, and there isn't enough Electricity for the manufacturing we need to re-shore because of our position with the globalized world, are we going to let EV owners continue to buy subsidized grid electricity to charge EV's on the cheap?
We assume that BYD wants to sell cars in the United States. However, if they did all they would have to do is build a factory here.
Pretty much the same like Chinese owned Volvo or any foreign company.
Of course the USA is a fantastic market, but we have to get off our high horse. We are only 350 million people out of EIGHT billion people on this planet. BYD is currently building cars as fast as they can and selling them. One day if they want to come to our shore, they will simply build a factory here.
I am sure they will but right now it doesn’t make sense for them.
In the meantime, they have all of Europe and their own population of 1.4 billion people to sell cars to. This is why all companies want to sell products in China. 1.4 billion people and the reason why Tesla is there.
Pretty much the same like Chinese owned Volvo or any foreign company.
Of course the USA is a fantastic market, but we have to get off our high horse. We are only 350 million people out of EIGHT billion people on this planet. BYD is currently building cars as fast as they can and selling them. One day if they want to come to our shore, they will simply build a factory here.
I am sure they will but right now it doesn’t make sense for them.
In the meantime, they have all of Europe and their own population of 1.4 billion people to sell cars to. This is why all companies want to sell products in China. 1.4 billion people and the reason why Tesla is there.
There wasn't a choice in November 2024 that didn't support the tarriffs. The 2021-2025 administration put the China EV tariff in place and the 2025-2029 administration almost certainly will keep it or perhaps even go farther. Maybe one of the few things they agree on.
What I have learned from your numbers, is that solar absolutely makes sense in California. Insane.
It will never justify itself here in Central Texas financially speaking. The cost of electricity from the grid will always be lower. However, many people I've talked to use it to insulate themselves from the politically driven nonsense and unreliability that is ERCOT.
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I hope we're smarter than that and not allow the EV owners to buy the electric on the cheap if that does in fact play out. The $7,500 incentive [soon to go away] was enough imo. Too much in fact.
Well...they would probably want to build many of the subassemblies in China, especially the batteries. But those would also come under the proposed tarriffs. They could build a US based supply chain but that would be a lot more work than just building a facility for assembling vehicles. Considering the political climate it probably doesn't make sense for them from a risk-reward perspective.
I don't think he means direct subsidies to consumers. Rather something more like this: https://spectrum.ieee.org/how-much-...subsidize-electricity-generating-technologies
We shall see.
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