Elon Musk #2

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Getting rich on government subsidies
My understanding, and correct me if I am wrong, is that Tesla receives ZERO government subsidies.
What they do receive is credits that are government mandated from other automobile manufacturers that fail to meet certain pollution or mileage standards. So because those other manufacturers are non competitive, they are penalized and Tesla gets some of that money.
Taxpayers aren't on the hook for it like the bailout of GM.

So GM is going to invest $47 billion in EV development. BFD. And good luck with that. Elon could write a check for $47 billion today and have several new factories up and running within a year, driving down the cost per vehicle and likely seeing more technological innovation from what are the best and brightest staff of engineers on the planet. And while GM invests all that money which I don't even know where they are going to get it from, they will have to continue to produce their ICE vehicles, pay ridiculous amounts to the UAW and fund pensions that are unsustainable.
And support their outmoded dealer and sales network and spend millions on advertising their mediocre vehicles.

Anyone care to guess just how good their line of EV's will be after they spend $47 billion dollars over the next few years trying to catch up with Tesla who will by then not be 5-6 years ahead but probably 10 years ahead ?

Go ahead and buy GM stock now while it is $45. Maybe it will go up 12X like Tesla did in the last 16 or so months. Or not.
 
Yes and that will increase as one of the Korean plants was closed. Production is shifting to Shanghai.

The China automobile market is growing by leaps and bounds. The Chinese automakers do deserve to be watched. Americans tend to ignore what is happening over there.

They absolutely do.

And I used to indirectly work for the NBA...
 
Yes and that will increase as one of the Korean plants was closed. Production is shifting to Shanghai.

The China automobile market is growing by leaps and bounds. The Chinese automakers do deserve to be watched. Americans tend to ignore what is happening over there.
China is an industrial powerhouse well beyond that of any other country in the world. Maybe the average American citizen isn't watching their auto industry, but you can be sure that all of the auto manufacturers are watching China very closely. The Chinese auto manufacturers scare the heck out of them, Elon included. This is why many of the world's largest auto manufacturers have established joint ventures with Chinese auto manufacturers and have also set-up manufacturing plants of their own there. They needed to get their foot in the door because the giant chinese state-owned auto manufacturers are the biggest threat to them globally going forward.
 
TSLA is at $572, up another $17. Dec 1st is right aroundthe corner. So is $1,000?
Wish them well … US jobs and capitalism in motion. Hope some with authority keep their paws away - and let it all happen at the right rate of progress
 
Thing is. In the US people EXPECT oil price is the only thing people pay for when they buy fuel, plus a bit of a refinery profit.

This is not how the rest of the world work, and to be honest, seems fair as they have a lot more in tax on the car (say 100% in many places on earth), tax on the fuel (say 50% in many places on earth), and they don't drive the car 300 miles at a time for 20 years expecting no major repair cost (say they want you to retire your car at 10 years or you face expensive annual inspection or repair cost).

Maybe EV is not the ideal car for Texas or Montana, but it might be fine for Singapore, UK, Hawaii, Iceland, Japan, etc. They have expensive imported oil instead of local fracking and they don't have a navy that can secure their transportation energy source.

BTW, Tesla is mainly a battery company first and then a car company second. You won't see LG or Panasonic going out of business will you? I am not buying their stocks right now but I won't be brave enough to short it like many did.
 
At a minimum , they look more and more as an electric company. But they software is top notch, their self driving tech itself is worth billions. And have you seen how they automate the assembly line? No one in the world has anything close to their technology

Audi assembly line is pretty impressive from what I've seen.

 
Tesla also makes a solar roof that charges their powerbanks, someday we will not have local utilities. Musk has a head start on this industry as well.

That's not really how that works. These installs are typically grid-tied with the battery used to cover peaking, charged during the day and if not fully charged, charged the rest of the way off-peak, which is at night. These are not capable of running your average home without a grid connection.

Add in northernly climates like Canada where you get snow loads that block off solar and power requirements to heat are extremely high, there is no way you are doing that off a solar/storage setup.
 
You are ignoring the inevitable rise to prominence of the Chinese auto industry. When they start to export and sell their products around the world (not just regionally) they will become an auto industry power to be reckoned-with. I should point out that they are currently leading the rest of the world in EV production and sales. The current auto industry leaders see this, which is why there is such a strong push to produce EVs, not so much because of Tesla in particular. IMO it won't happen in 5 years, but you will certainly see it happening in 10.
That's gonna be a while bud. Even the Chinese do not really want Chinese cars. There is also the issue of Chinese manufacturing having a harder and harder time finding slav...er...workers in China...
 
My understanding, and correct me if I am wrong, is that Tesla receives ZERO government subsidies.
What they do receive is credits that are government mandated from other automobile manufacturers that fail to meet certain pollution or mileage standards. So because those other manufacturers are non competitive, they are penalized and Tesla gets some of that money.
Taxpayers aren't on the hook for it like the bailout of GM.

So GM is going to invest $47 billion in EV development. BFD. And good luck with that. Elon could write a check for $47 billion today and have several new factories up and running within a year, driving down the cost per vehicle and likely seeing more technological innovation from what are the best and brightest staff of engineers on the planet. And while GM invests all that money which I don't even know where they are going to get it from, they will have to continue to produce their ICE vehicles, pay ridiculous amounts to the UAW and fund pensions that are unsustainable.
And support their outmoded dealer and sales network and spend millions on advertising their mediocre vehicles.

Anyone care to guess just how good their line of EV's will be after they spend $47 billion dollars over the next few years trying to catch up with Tesla who will by then not be 5-6 years ahead but probably 10 years ahead ?

Go ahead and buy GM stock now while it is $45. Maybe it will go up 12X like Tesla did in the last 16 or so months. Or not.

Fanboiism aside there's still a significant difference between Tesla, a ground-up EV manufacturer, and traditional chassis makers, like GM, that are trying to get into EV's. The approaches are VERY different and that may or may not work out in the traditional manufacturer's favour.

Take the Corvette and Camaro as an example (and I am NOT a GM fan). Both of these cars have world-class chassis' under them. Yes, the Camaro has slits for windows, but it's an incredibly capable car. IF GM is able to maintain those chassis dynamics while electrifying that platform, that's going to work in their favour.

If we look at Porsche (and Audi) in the Taycan, they produced an electric Porsche. The great thing is they produced an electric Porsche, the bad thing? They produced an electric Porsche. The Taycan is a heck of a lot like a petrol car, similar to how the e-tron is a lot like a Q7. Both vehicles, as traditional cars, electrified, do the job well. As an EV compared to a Tesla, they are not similar. Tesla vehicles are minimalist, functions all done on the screen. Some people love that; some people EXPECT that, but there's a market for people that want something familiar. Will that be the dominant market going forward? I think it's too early to tell.

The other issue is that on range both the e-tron and the Taycan under-delivered on the promises made by their respective badges. While not a huge issue for somebody doing a short commute or ripping around town, for somebody wanting to replace a gasser and do the odd long haul the rift between these and Tesla becomes apparent. This is where GM will need to work too IF the other aspects of the vehicle work out.

I owned an e-tron. I should have bought one with the luxury package because I was quite dissatisfied with the seats and materials in it when compared to my Jeep and my wife absolutely hated it so I ended up offloading it. As an EV, it was an excellent car though. Insanely quiet, drove like a normal car. I found it nicer than the Model S I'd driven and it certainly felt more "familiar" which, for me, was a plus. Perhaps for you that wouldn't be the case. I know the OP in this thread has a Model 3 and he and his wife like the fact that the Tesla is different. I have a friend, now on his 2nd Tesla, that feels the same way. My parents would want something familiar, they liked the Audi, but didn't like the seats either, go figure.

GM has a chance if they can incorporate, properly, EV tech into their already excellent chassis offerings. How that plays out from a consumer perspective, I think we are very shortly going to find out.
 
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Tesla also makes a solar roof that charges their powerbanks, someday we will not have local utilities. Musk has a head start on this industry as well.

He knows how to get what he wants, he has the ability to execute, he has the investors. If he can continue to execute there is no limit on TSLA.

God I hope so, with a large white elephant Tesla plant in Buffalo. But I am not as optimistic as you are, nor do I have as much faith in Elon as you do. The plant was started by a different solar company all together that Tesla had ties to. It is working, but far from capacity and there are a lot of uncertainties hanging over the plant...

Personally I wish the plant was more directly tied to auto manufacturing...
 
Imagine them making money from selling cars, not just certificates. Cannot go on like that....
 
Imagine them making money from selling cars, not just certificates. Cannot go on like that....
Why should anyone imagine when they can have reality? Reality is the 6th biggest company in America.
Teslas are different; they are not trying to make the same cars as everybody else.
Ford and GM are selling bazillions of cars in comparison. Where is their stock?
Where are they as a company? It seems their latest vision is in Tesla's rear view mirror.

Considering Tesla a car company is perhaps missing the point.
They are not just a car company; they are a tech company. So much more...
Look at the top S&P companies. Pretty much all tech.
 
Yeah, why should anyone imagine them making money from selling cars?
Perfectly fine that way, Jeff! Actually I'd already missed you today and asked myself where you might be agitating right then ;-)
 
Why should anyone imagine when they can have reality? Reality is the 6th biggest company in America.

6th biggest according to what? Number of employees? Number of cars sold, gross tonnage of materials produced? Number of factories?

Nope... not biggest. Just the sixth largest by market cap. With a P/E and P/S ratio that doesn’t align to anything else. Yeah, I know... it’s a tech company being priced as a tech company. But eventually most of the items they produce look more like commodity and standard industrial product than tech.

The trick pony will need to keep doing tricks to keep its value. At some point that will be unsustainable and values will become more standard.
 
6th biggest according to what? Number of employees? Number of cars sold, gross tonnage of materials produced? Number of factories?

Nope... not biggest. Just the sixth largest by market cap. With a P/E and P/S ratio that doesn’t align to anything else. Yeah, I know... it’s a tech company being priced as a tech company. But eventually most of the items they produce look more like commodity and standard industrial product than tech.

The trick pony will need to keep doing tricks to keep its value. At some point that will be unsustainable and values will become more standard.
My point is, this is no small achievement. Thinking otherwise is not thinking from a business standpoint.
Don't take it from me; take it from Barrons, MarketWatch, etc.

Your comments echo the short sellers who have made Tesla (and Apple) the most shorted stocks.
Tesla shorts are considered one of the worst bets in stock history.
What will the future hold? I don't have a crystal ball; I can only comment on what has happened so far.

All good.
 
No denying Elon is super innovative and very smart.

I did buy some Tesla stock earlier this year.
 
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