BMW against short-term measures by the German government

What makes things worse, they were warned way before the event that the generators needed to be moved but it fell on deaf ears!
I work in Cybersecurity and I can't tell you the number of times that business leaders have signed off audit findings on legacy systems as "acceptable business risk" because it's "too expensive" to remediate. We do our best with firewalls and WAFs in front of their applications but it's never perfect. And in many cases does not address insider threats.

Grandma was right when she said an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.
 
It is unless you understand the reasoning behind it. The German govt and a portion of the German people have determined that they must fulfill their responsibility in reducing global fossil fuel emissions in order to stave of catastrophic climate change at some point in the distant future. EV's must be part of the strategy and the German govt has directed automakers to get on board and provided hundreds of millions in subsidies.

The problem is that it's expensive. Kinda like how it was expensive when automobiles first came out and began to replace horses. Cities like NYC were dealing with 500 tons of horse manure a day. Using a horse in the city was cheap because you didn't have to clean up its manure and take it with you. Cities just dumped it in the river or landfill and the owners of said horses didn't really bare the full cost of the manure because it floated downstream for someone else to worry about. Ban horses in NYC and the cost of everything goes up because people must now use the more expensive ICE/steam engine. NYC is comparatively cleaner but it now costs more to live there.

ICE today is the horse of yesterday. It's comparatively cheap because there's no immediate* cost of the emissions. Like horse manure dumped in the river ICE emissions are blown downwind and out of the minds of the user for someone a couple of generations to deal with.

Some people care about these things and others do not. I'm rather ambivalent.


*Other than localized air pollution like Ozone.
Did they go all in, or are they looking for more handouts?

1/3 of BMW sales are in China - there largest market. Clearly EV makes sense in China. However I think everyone is now looking at China imploding and wondering how long till full melt down.

Europe as a whole is like 20%, and USA is like 15%. They are the epitome of luxury brands, so EV might make more sense there (high up front costs not a big issue presumably).

Given there global, and they are still working on ICE vehicles, I am not sure they have gone "all in" any more than a lot of other brands.
 
What makes things worse, they were warned way before the event that the generators needed to be moved but it fell on deaf ears!

I work in the nuclear design industry and I'm told by people I work with who are far smarter than I that it is nigh on impossible for a modern power station to ever suffer a thermal runaway. Apparently the rate of reaction reduces as the temperature increases and they are designed in such a way that should the cooling system fail, that the reaction will all but cease long before dangerous temperatures are reached.
Yes, Tepco was well aware of the updated requirements for a higher sea wall and the relocation of the backup generators, they were able to avoid doing both of those things under "Grandfathering" regulation, because the Japanese nuclear regulator is not wholly independent, but rather chaired by the industry; it's captive. Ergo, it was an economic argument against the odds, the grandfathering, which ultimately bit them, and the whole prefecture, in the rear.

What you describe is effectively the fundamentals of how a BWR operates. It requires a moderator (light water) to fission, and when you remove the moderator (which is also the coolant on a BWR), the rate of reactivity decreases, so they are somewhat self-regulating in this regard with the operator sort of chasing the edge of this using control rods.

The problem is that latent heat production, even after the unit is shutdown, is considerable and traditional fuel elements are not able to withstand the heat generated without a coolant being present. This was one of the big problems at Fukushima, the spent fuel pool, that was evaporating its water and they had no way of replenishing it.

There are various Gen III+ designs that utilize different types of moderators, like liquid metals, and different fuel elements, that are self-regulating and "meltdown proof" as the moderator can't evaporate and the fuel elements are designed to be able to operate at much higher temperatures.

CANDU's require heavy water as a moderator, and the early CANDU's used a moderator dump as a 2nd shutdown system, because of course it can't sustain fission without deuterium. This was deemed "too slow" however, and would have allowed for fuel element damage, because of the heat issue described above, so it was eventually eliminated in favour of a faster acting gadolinium poison injection system.
 
I don't understand the push for EV's in Europe. EU countries get a huge portion of their revenue from fuel taxes. How will they manage the drop in revenue? For example, the tax in Germany on gasoline is $2.76/gallon.
 
I wouldn't be surprised if they get a larger road tax to make up for less fuel being used for EVs like we have here. I think they have a road tax anyway even with ICE in certain areas, but I'm not 100% certain on that.
 
I don't understand the push for EV's in Europe. EU countries get a huge portion of their revenue from fuel taxes. How will they manage the drop in revenue? For example, the tax in Germany on gasoline is $2.76/gallon.
tax per driven km, wich comes sooner or later
 
BMW is "All In" on EVs and I suspect their survival depends on it. I suspect the Green Party and a huge segment of the population have no interest in restarting nuclear.
https://oilprice.com/Alternative-En...0-of-Electricity-With-Renewables-by-2030.html
Couple points on that:
1. "Biomass", which is burning trees, a lot of it shipped in from the west coast of Canada, is "renewable" in this context, and provides ~9% of their electricity.
2. Their 2nd largest source of generation is still coal at ~24%, followed by gas at 10%, so that's 34%

Wind/solar/hydro make up 43%, it is going to be a hell of a struggle to cover that remaining 37% (28% if we include biomass) due to how over-saturated the periods where existing wind/solar are productive already are. Adding 10GW of wind for example, doesn't displace 10GW of coal, it might displace zero coal if you are already forced to curtail and/or export when it's most productive.

Screen Shot 2024-09-25 at 10.39.09 AM.webp
 
Did they go all in, or are they looking for more handouts?
I think both as they're related. From BMW's perspective I would be annoyed having been to some degree forced to invest in this technology when there's a lack of accountability on the govt side to invest in the necessary charging infrastructure combined with the backpedaling on ICE phase outs. They're getting whipsawed back and forth just like US domestics.

1/3 of BMW sales are in China - there largest market. Clearly EV makes sense in China. However I think everyone is now looking at China imploding and wondering how long till full melt down.

Europe as a whole is like 20%, and USA is like 15%. They are the epitome of luxury brands, so EV might make more sense there (high up front costs not a big issue presumably).

Given there global, and they are still working on ICE vehicles, I am not sure they have gone "all in" any more than a lot of other brands.
IMO they like the others need ICE to keep the lights on but they announced years ago that no new engines were being developed. While there have been improvements/advancements, the current B-series family of engines (3,4,6cyl) has been out for 10 yrs and their V8s are older. NVM that emissions are getting tighter and tighter every year.

Perhaps with the backpedaling on ICE bans BMW will have to develop a new engine to meet ever stricter emissions.
 
I don't understand the push for EV's in Europe. EU countries get a huge portion of their revenue from fuel taxes. How will they manage the drop in revenue? For example, the tax in Germany on gasoline is $2.76/gallon.
That part is super simple: tax per driven km.
In Norway, more than 50% of registered vehicles are electric. And Norway is HUGE oil exporter. The problem is German energy policy.
BMW is not all in on EVs, but they see a trend. They said they will keep ICE until at least 2050.
 
I was on the phone with a good friend just yesterday who owns a SEAT/Skoda dealership, he was telling me the price of heat and electric is so high now he is considering shutting the doors. He is 63 and was hoping his kids would take the business over but they see the bills and do not want it.
Other friends that live in the city both own apartments, very nice and large ones but no charging in the underground garages and they too are disgusted at the price of energy yet they keep pushing EV's and other high demand electric items like heating and appliances on people either through taxation or regulation of ICE vehicles and energy taxes.
Curious... How much is petrol? My understanding is it is almost as expensive as California.
 
Couple points on that:
1. "Biomass", which is burning trees, a lot of it shipped in from the west coast of Canada, is "renewable" in this context, and provides ~9% of their electricity.
2. Their 2nd largest source of generation is still coal at ~24%, followed by gas at 10%, so that's 34%

Wind/solar/hydro make up 43%, it is going to be a hell of a struggle to cover that remaining 37% (28% if we include biomass) due to how over-saturated the periods where existing wind/solar are productive already are. Adding 10GW of wind for example, doesn't displace 10GW of coal, it might displace zero coal if you are already forced to curtail and/or export when it's most productive.

View attachment 242152
Alabama ships tons of pellets overseas as well. If enough German industry moves out of the country then renewables will account for a higher portion of their nationwide demand. Problem solved. <sarcasm>.
 
I think both as they're related. From BMW's perspective I would be annoyed having been to some degree forced to invest in this technology when there's a lack of accountability on the govt side to invest in the necessary charging infrastructure combined with the backpedaling on ICE phase outs. They're getting whipsawed back and forth just like US domestics.


IMO they like the others need ICE to keep the lights on but they announced years ago that no new engines were being developed. While there have been improvements/advancements, the current B-series family of engines (3,4,6cyl) has been out for 10 yrs and their V8s are older. NVM that emissions are getting tighter and tighter every year.
That is becoming a big point of contention in the EU. Don't be surprised to see further delays in Euro norms. Euro 7 has already been postponed, and we could see further delays.
 
tax per driven km, wich comes sooner or later
I think a tax per kWh used in EV is the most equitable, as a heavier, less efficient EV will use more kWh to go the same distance as a lighter, more efficient one, and this parallels with how gas tax works. The charge ports all contain bidirectional communication capability, so I don't see it as overly difficult for the EV to report its consumption to the smart meter at your house so that you can be billed for EV charging kWh with a road tax as part of it.
 
Thanks... Now I am more curious... How much do German workers earn? If you make $200K per year, $4.50 per gallon is chicken scratch. If you make $50K then it is painful.
People live closer to work, public transportation is better, in general they drive more fuel efficient cars (diesels were the vast majority until maybe 10 years ago?). A lot of people ride there bike to work and other places, even older people. Fuel is expensive but in general the average person uses less than here.
 
Thanks... Now I am more curious... How much do German workers earn? If you make $200K per year, $4.50 per gallon is chicken scratch. If you make $50K then it is painful.
Cars are much more efficient on average though. You don't see very many land barges like the Suburban anywhere in Europe.
 
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