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Big Ford EV Announcement Coming Aug 11th
- Thread starter E365
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Well. we may see them but one has to look at the actual USA sales numbers. I mean they are only two models out of a sea of vehicles on the road that make them to easy to "see' (stand out)Wow that would be wild if that pans out the way you think. I see a ton of Teslas around here. I'm not sure they're dead in the USA. Tesla is going to be releasing a more affordable EV option.
If batter tech and charging tech keeps improving, I see them growing.
Then add $7,500 to the price starting Oct 1st for a new one and $4,000 to the price of a used one.
As it is, gasoline vehicles make up over 90% of new sales in the USA. Now add that huge price increase to EVs
Dont misunderstand me. I dont care about EV or Gasoline with the tax incentive gone. I like analyzing facts and figures, sometimes investing on that analyzing (though I shy away from retail) Whats in one day can literally be gone tomorrow.
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I have a feeling you're going to be right. IMO they're becoming a tougher sell, new or used.
I think EV sales will be pulled forwards in advance of the credit going away. There will be a plunge in sales immediately after expiration, then sales will recover. One thing we don't know is how manufacturers will respond to the loss of the credit. They still need to become profitable on EV sales because, no mistake about it, EV is the future. So they're still scaling up production of batteries in order to drive down costs.
Guess what still has a large production-based incentive post O3B: battery cell production. LFP batteries can be used for other purposes, such as both grid and residential storage. I anticipate that a portion of the lost credit will be absorbed by the manufacturers. I'm sure they were inflating their prices already in response to the credit, and even with per-unit losses, they need the money to continue expanding cell production. In addition, there are newer, lower-cost chemistries, such as Lithium-Sulfur, that may become commercially available in the next few years. The manufacturers just need to get production adequately scaled.
You could be right. Having said that I have a feeling ICE is going to live on a lot longer than many thought it would live just a year ago.
So Ford's big announcement is a mid-size EV 4 door pickup for $30K.
I will believe it when I see it. The hybrid maverick was supposed to be $20K or something like that.
"The new midsize four-door pickup will be assembled at the automaker's Louisville, Kentucky, plant. Ford is investing nearly $2 billion in the plant, which produces the Escape and Lincoln Corsair, retaining at least 2,200 jobs, it said in a statement."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fords-line-affordable-vehicles-start-143643611.html
I will believe it when I see it. The hybrid maverick was supposed to be $20K or something like that.
"The new midsize four-door pickup will be assembled at the automaker's Louisville, Kentucky, plant. Ford is investing nearly $2 billion in the plant, which produces the Escape and Lincoln Corsair, retaining at least 2,200 jobs, it said in a statement."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fords-line-affordable-vehicles-start-143643611.html
In other news - the largest lithium mine in China is closed for at least 3 months, maybe more.
“I think it will mean the lithium price in the near term has very big upside,” Matty Zhao, co-head of China equity research at the lender, said in a Bloomberg TV interview."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lithium-market-soars-catl-shuts-071854613.html
“I think it will mean the lithium price in the near term has very big upside,” Matty Zhao, co-head of China equity research at the lender, said in a Bloomberg TV interview."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lithium-market-soars-catl-shuts-071854613.html
I think it will be a winner. Reducing costs expands the potential market, and as Maverick sales indicate, there's demand for smaller SUVs and trucks in the U.S., especially with all the price inflation we've been seeing since covid. In addition, a cheaper EV is a no-brainer for many small businesses and families where the EV isn't the only car. A $50,000 SUV might be a reach for these households, but at $30,000 having an EV is an easier choice for households with multiple vehicles and the ability to charge at home.
I have another kid learning to drive, and I'm doing the math on gas and maintenance for another ICE, vs an inexpensive used EV. I get stuck with all the maintenance on my vehicles, so having a vehicle that requires no maintenance is a definite bonus for me. Especially since I have solar and essentially charge at home for free. No more dad, I need gas money!
Oh, I think its a great idea, but given the lowest cost Maverick hybrid is $30K, and was supposed to be I believe $21K when announced, I don't believe we will see a $30K EV maverick.
However if they are able to make them - and sell at that price, I agree, they will be wildly popular.
It will be undercut by Slate, and eventually by Toyota Stout.
The real story is their new Universal EV platform and production system. The $30k pickup will be the first vehicle to use it
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a65653978/ford-affordable-platform-ev-truck/
As with many manufacturing improvements, it's not just one thing. For example:
(1) Cheaper LFP cell chemistry and domestic cell production will the reduce the cost
(2) It's smaller, which means lower pricing for the build of materials and probably reduced front area, which means smaller battery needed for acceptable range
(3) Modified production process will improve manufacturing speed and increase throughput
(4) Platform can spawn multiple variants, which means economies of scale in production
And some other stuff I'm probably missing.
EVs are selling well right now in anticipation of the tax credit loss. Then there will be a lull. Some companies will partially absorb the tax credit loss by lowering prices, if their margins or business plans allow them to do so. Of course low or negative margin vehicles will be hurt more, which only helps the stronger margin vehicles.
Last time the tax credit was halved then lost Tesla sales continued to grow, but that was a different time. Interesting times ahead.
Winners and losers...
Last time the tax credit was halved then lost Tesla sales continued to grow, but that was a different time. Interesting times ahead.
Winners and losers...
While my garage is a bit closer than 50ft yet still detached, there's quite the scale difference between a 3,000mAh-5,000mAh phone battery and a 82kWh battery in something like a Model Y. At any given time I have 164kWh worth of battery in my garage. Is it likely that I will have a fire from them? No, but I've had an attached garage before and it had living space above it and I don't think any car regardless of what it is powered by should be in an attached garage. It's just a packaging solution for less materials in a smaller space on newer construction.
If I built a new home I'd still go with a detached garage and I'd have it further away than my current one is. My home was built in 1925 and the garage was built way after that and on the side of a hill because that's the only way it would fit. There would have been no way for it to be attached while being a two car garage.
I believe both the UK and Germany lost their EV tax credit, and EV sales are currently booming in both countries. I’d bet long-term they will continue to grow in the USA, simply because they’re far better vehicles than ICE for many drivers (not all, of course).
I’m also guessing the loss of the $7,500 credit will largely help any company making sub-$50k EVs. People who want an EV will have to “settle” for maybe a sub-$45k option, when previously they might have been OK getting into the $50k+ MSRP range, knowing that would knock back into the $40,000s.
I don’t think sales will tank, they’ll possibly just shift “down market”. Fewer Teslas and Cadillacs, and more Chevrolets, Fords, Hyundais, etc.
Also the $80k+ EVs probably won’t get hurt that much, as they didn’t qualify anyway.
I’m also guessing the loss of the $7,500 credit will largely help any company making sub-$50k EVs. People who want an EV will have to “settle” for maybe a sub-$45k option, when previously they might have been OK getting into the $50k+ MSRP range, knowing that would knock back into the $40,000s.
I don’t think sales will tank, they’ll possibly just shift “down market”. Fewer Teslas and Cadillacs, and more Chevrolets, Fords, Hyundais, etc.
Also the $80k+ EVs probably won’t get hurt that much, as they didn’t qualify anyway.
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A $30K EV 4 door PU sounds like a great product. The other news is, the subassembly line manufacturing line, the casting and the structural battery. Similar to another EV manufacturer...
I wish Ford well!
I wish Ford well!
The problem with your assumption is, those companies are already losing money on their EV products. If they are forced to lower prices to offset the end of the tax credit, how do they absorb the financial hit?
Germany had a 55% ev sales jump and the UK 40%, yet Teslas sales have slid significantly in both markets.
According to Newsweek, AI use is driving up power demand. Nothing in here about EVs.
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