Another article showing concern in the housing market- yet the author may have lacked critical thinking

US Federal Funds Rate. High interest rates induce recessions. Hard to escape. ( the grey bar represent the duration of past recessions). I lived in Houston during the short recession of 1989 and had to ask my co-workers why the signs outside the banks were covered in bed sheets. Answer: The banks were going under and/ or they were being taken over.

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US Federal Funds Rate. High interest rates induce recessions. Hard to escape. ( the grey bar represent the duration of past recessions). I lived in Houston during the short recession of 1989 and had to ask my co-workers why the signs outside the banks were covered in bed sheets. Answer: The banks were going under and/ or they were being taken over.

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SNF,

First, thanks for posting your insights on the Vancouver market. I fly to Asia from Vancouver often and saw a large percentage of people of Chinese background, I didn't connect the dots as to how that has positively impacted Vancouver real estate prices.

The climate has been and remains in the USA is to not let banks and other businesses from certain sectors "fail". What you saw in Houston 25 plus years ago will not repeat in the USA, unless the USD loses its status as the world's reserve currency. Being a big asset bank in the banking industry is pretty darn safe now, regardless of how the bank is lead/managed/run.
 
In 2022 - 144M homes and 334M people - or 2.32 people per housing unit - so in reality that is about 4% more housing units per person. There are more housing units per person now than before.

I have gone back further using other sources, and the numbers in the 70's and 80's are much fewer housing units per person then - so housing by population has been growing - albeit at a slow pace - as long as records have existed. Obviously cultural and preference have shifted to fewer people living together.

There are fewer “young” people than there were in 2000 and those young people naturally cohabited with parents

As those young people have converted into middle age more of them need to continue to live with parents.

So it’s a demographics thing, more single people yes but to maintain the persons per unit means more adults and elderly living together as there are fewer children.

This video matches with what I saw in previous crashes , crashes are local and can be covered up by nearby areas that are not.

 
There are fewer “young” people than there were in 2000 and those young people naturally cohabited with parents

As those young people have converted into middle age more of them need to continue to live with parents.

So it’s a demographics thing, more single people yes but to maintain the persons per unit means more adults and elderly living together as there are fewer children.

This video matches with what I saw in previous crashes , crashes are local and can be covered up by nearby areas that are not.


Rmay,

About ten years ago I read an article that theorized that there would be a housing price collapse in the very near future, where baby boomers had retired. The article spoke that these areas in communities in places like Florida and Arizona, would be where the collapse would happen. The baby boomers would die, and there was a shrinking of the aging population to move into these communities/ areas full of retired baby boomers.

The article was not only wrong, but it was also way wrong. These communities are as resilient as ever. And, the demand for housing is so strong in places like Florida and Arizona, young people are competing to be in these "retired folk houses", as the occupants die, with newly retired people.

I am personally hoping for a major downturn in the sell prices in single family homes, I track the numbers daily. I have yet to see a single sign of a price downturn in the USA on single family homes on a MACRO basis, not one. I am still seeing houses (if desirable) under contract the day they are listed, and some are still selling above the listing published price.
 
Rmay,

About ten years ago I read an article that theorized that there would be a housing price collapse in the very near future, where baby boomers had retired. The article spoke that these areas in communities in places like Florida and Arizona, would be where the collapse would happen. The baby boomers would die, and there was a shrinking of the aging population to move into these communities/ areas full of retired baby boomers.

The article was not only wrong, but it was also way wrong. These communities are as resilient as ever. And, the demand for housing is so strong in places like Florida and Arizona, young people are competing to be in these "retired folk houses", as the occupants die, with newly retired people.

I am personally hoping for a major downturn in the sell prices in single family homes, I track the numbers daily. I have yet to see a single sign of a price downturn in the USA on single family homes on a MACRO basis, not one. I am still seeing houses (if desirable) under contract the day they are listed, and some are still selling above the listing published price.
I have to agree with you at least on our side of the country here, Coastal and inland areas of the Southeast. Except for year end "clearance" sales from some builders where we considered in Florida the prices are right back up there to where they were when we were looking back in June 2022. Keep in mind we are talking more moderate part of the market.

Let's shoot up to the coastal areas of SC and NC. We signed contracts on a new home to be built in August 2022. It's looking like we will be moving in by March. Construction manager gives us weekly updates and site agent weekly photos.
House is just about complete, flooring, HVAC, roof, walls ect everything is done.
Final steps are taking place right now, minor things, mirrors going in this week, landscaper is on the block and should be up to our house by next week. Electrician will be in this week and connect the power, final coat of paint will be done in another week. The only delay will be the time is takes the county to hook up the sewer line.

Ok, so my concern was, even though I know there is housing shortage and even though I know the areas from NC to Florida are hotspots Im not stupid and was wondering if we could have got a better price on the NC home, well, as of today, 5 months later, the answer is no. The homes still going up, people still buying them. Same goes for the area of Florida that we looked at. The price escalation there has seemed to have stopped but the next phase is being built right now and selling at the same prices. Yeah, some times there is sweetened mortgage deals from the builders but not that you cant get those deals privately.

Where we are building in NC I have seen no sign of any discounts that we haven't already got back in August 2022 and the homes are still being built as well. Actually we are thrilled at our selection on where to move and little did we know at the time it was going to be in the areas of some of the hotspots in the country and the reason why. Looking forward to the move.
 
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Did I buy at the top of a House Bubble? What to do?​

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Housing

Had to relocate for work to Atlanta in 2022. Housing market was extremely hot but we did not want to rent due to a prior bad experience. After 30 offers on other homes, we ended up purchasing a 5 year old, 4 bd 3,000 sq ft home for $515,000 @ 5% interest. It’s in a subdivision with amenities and in a good school district.

Unfortunately, today a similar sized 4 bd home four houses down, which started on the market a year ago at $525,000, dropped their price today to $445,000. What?!?

That quickly has my home lost 14% of its value
 
Rmay,

About ten years ago I read an article that theorized that there would be a housing price collapse in the very near future, where baby boomers had retired. The article spoke that these areas in communities in places like Florida and Arizona, would be where the collapse would happen. The baby boomers would die, and there was a shrinking of the aging population to move into these communities/ areas full of retired baby boomers.

The article was not only wrong, but it was also way wrong. These communities are as resilient as ever. And, the demand for housing is so strong in places like Florida and Arizona, young people are competing to be in these "retired folk houses", as the occupants die, with newly retired people.

I am personally hoping for a major downturn in the sell prices in single family homes, I track the numbers daily. I have yet to see a single sign of a price downturn in the USA on single family homes on a MACRO basis, not one. I am still seeing houses (if desirable) under contract the day they are listed, and some are still selling above the listing published price.
Your article was very poorly researched. Were actually at peak baby boomer retirement right now - so its like 60-65 is the baby boomer median age. So there should be lots of demand for homes in retirement areas for the next decade give or take. Of course how that plays out is anyone's guess. Talked to a guy I work with - know him casually, early 60's. He said he was hoping to retire soon but his portfolio is now down 40%. Those that cashed out a year ago are golden. Those that did not might be working a while.
 
Your article was very poorly researched. Were actually at peak baby boomer retirement right now - so its like 60-65 is the baby boomer median age. So there should be lots of demand for homes in retirement areas for the next decade give or take. Of course how that plays out is anyone's guess. Talked to a guy I work with - know him casually, early 60's. He said he was hoping to retire soon but his portfolio is now down 40%. Those that cashed out a year ago are golden. Those that did not might be working a while.
What the heck did he buy to be down 40%, Tesla?
 
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