Another article showing concern in the housing market- yet the author may have lacked critical thinking

[Rmay635703]

I got turned off the first three minutes of this video because this did not happen he’s making it up, he assumes a 9% decrease in one quarter is going to translate into 34% for the year so he’s pretending to be a weather forecaster one year out.

Just because somebody is on YouTube does that make them intelligent.

Yet we are having a similar series of events



1. Slowdown in housing pending “sales/offers” increase in time on market
A) Layoffs and turnover in the related “realtor” job market
B) Investor exit from market
C) Layoffs of higher paid workers getting moved into lower paying jobs
C1) Time to find work increasing


2. Reverse mortgage company bankruptcies
A) increase and upward trend in foreclosures on NON-DISTRESSED properties
A1) Presence of zombie foreclosures with no obvious owner involvement (empty to foreclosure)
A2) increasing numbers of home owners under water amidst a large percentage of homeowners already being dissatisfied from buying outside a proper work radius

See if we get 3, 4 and 5 of the playbook in the next couple years or miraculously reverse coarse .

1 and 2 took a number of years to happen the last time and are ahead of schedule by a fair margin.

 

[alarmguy]

Yet we are having a similar series of events



1. Slowdown in housing pending “sales/offers” increase in time on market
A) Layoffs and turnover in the related “realtor” job market
B) Investor exit from market
C) Layoffs of higher paid workers getting moved into lower paying jobs
C1) Time to find work increasing

2. Reverse mortgage company bankruptcies
A) increase and upward trend in foreclosures on NON-DISTRESSED properties
A1) Presence of zombie foreclosures with no obvious owner involvement (empty to foreclosure)

See if we get 3, 4 and 5 of the playbook in the next couple years or miraculously reverse coarse .

1 and 2 took a number of years to happen the last time and are ahead of schedule by a fair margin.

But all the above is irrelevant if one ignores what I posted previously, inventory is at an all time historical low. That was not the case in the last crash, that all these internet gurus are neglecting to mention. It's been decades and decades since home inventory was so low how can we compare in a post Covid world? I suggest its all media and internet hysteria.
Just look at the facts in the chart, this market is now getting close to a normal market, one in which buyers might be able to go around, look at homes and decide in a few days or even weeks to make an offer without the home being sold in 3 hours instead.

Another article showing concern in the housing market- yet the author may have lacked critical thinking

The property that backs up to ours that would have sold for $500k in June was listed for $425k on 12/3 and is under contract. Built in 2018 for around $260k I'd guess. Other properties are hanging on to near peak prices and aren't moving. AZJ, Will the property that backs up to your sell for...

bobistheoilguy.com

 

[PimTac]

I can say one thing for sure, I have no sympathy for homebuilders complaining about the big bad interest rates affecting their profit margins!

I have a development going in across the street from me. They were in a big rush to clear and grade the land, get the utilities and streets in. The last thing they did was put in fancy street lights. Now, everything has stopped. No houses have been built. 120 homes were scheduled to go in.

Almost two years of constant activity and it got quiet about a month ago or so.

 

[Hillbilly Deluxe]

I drive by a small development that was just completed. All 28 homes.

This development was extremely unpopular with area residents, there were 2-3 highly attended city council meetings, not a single speaker from the audience spoke in favor of the development at any of the 3 meetings. Huge opposition. This was approved by the city in Dec 2018, IIRC. It took 3+ years to begin work after Federal Environmental Studies and permits were complete and most all construction was in 2022, during the height of lumber, concrete and other prices.

As I said, all 28 homes are complete. There's MULTIPLE 2'x2' signs out in front of the subdivision, advertising this, that and $20k "do anything you wish" cash at closing. These homes are ~2800 to 3000 sf, 4br/3ba, garage on 1/3 acre lots. Attractive homes, if I must say, not all one color, lots of very attractive colors on Hardi-Plank siding.

They have sold 2 of them. They've been completed for at least 90 days. Prices are $520-550k.

 

[zzyzzx]

 

[zzyzzx]

 

[zzyzzx]

 

[zzyzzx]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...for-fourth-month-with-us-sales-market-slowing

Home Prices Slip for Fourth Month With US Market Slowing​

 

[GON]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...for-fourth-month-with-us-sales-market-slowing

Home Prices Slip for Fourth Month With US Market Slowing​

NPR had a like headline, but if one actually reads the article, past the click bait, the assembly is house prices are not falling, actually a very strong housing market, primarily because of a lack of inventory.

 

[Rmay635703]

Lack of inventory with single digit sales increases from what was effectively zero is not a strong market.

Buydowns, cash offers and rate lock programs indicate a sluggish market and possible future market failure.

2/1 Buydown “products”?
Where have we heard that before?
It’s 2006 all over again

Mortgage buydowns touted as reprieve from soaring rates

Who needs ARMs? Borrowers are paying more up front to secure lower mortgage rates

www.mpamag.com

We are approaching #3 of the market failure handbook.

Those in the market will unendingly spin all this as good for buyers as the last of the suckers gets locked in to the remaining properties before things drop further.

See how many bounces we get

 

[GON]

Lack of inventory with single digit sales increases from what was effectively zero is not a strong market.

Buydowns, cash offers and rate lock programs indicate a sluggish market and possible future market failure.

2/1 Buydown “products”?
Where have we heard that before?
It’s 2006 all over again

Mortgage buydowns touted as reprieve from soaring rates

Who needs ARMs? Borrowers are paying more up front to secure lower mortgage rates

www.mpamag.com

We are approaching #3 of the market failure handbook.

Those in the market will unendingly spin all this as good for buyers as the last of the suckers gets locked in to the remaining properties before things drop further.

See how many bounces we get

Hope you are right- none of the data I am tracking daily shares any of your sentiment. Actually the opposite. Bidding wars, although not intense/ nor strong, are going on every day.

 

[CKN]

Those who think there is another real estate crash like 2006-2007 coming will be waiting a very long time if they are looking to buy.......it's not even close to the same market fundamentals.

 

[zzyzzx]

https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/01042023-mortgage-application-volume

Mortgage Application Volume Finished Year at 26-Year Low​

 

[GON]

https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/01042023-mortgage-application-volume

Mortgage Application Volume Finished Year at 26-Year Low​

Found a house in Arizona that I wanted to look at this weekend. Put airline tickets on hold for my Wife and me, reached out to the listing agent, the response was I had to provide in depth information to prove I am a serious and financially able buyer, before the listing agent would consider scheduling a viewing. The response from the listing agent told me volumes about the real estate market in Arizona, and what I suspect in the majority of the USA.

Still a very low inventory market, which equates to a very low likelihood of the selling prices of homes dropping below JAN 2022 levels, and actually much more likely homes will sell in the first quarter 2023 above the prices they sold for on first quarter 2022.

Of the tracking I following on home sales prices across the USA, the models are predicting the sales prices of homes with havd a one to one point five percent year over year increase 2023. So much for the theory that home sales prices are going to fall below JAN 2022 levels- every statistic and model show the opposite.

 

[zzyzzx]

the response was I had to provide in depth information to prove I am a serious and financially able buyer, before the listing agent would consider scheduling a viewing.

That's a deal breaker right there!

I would have told them off, and not politely either.

 

[GON]

That's a deal breaker right there!

Yes, you are spot on. I am not desperate to buy, and not showing "my cards", how much buying power I can afford, etc. I am only buying in advance of retirement if I can get a home well below market. Post retirement likely not such a hard criteria.

This was the home we were going to view (with huge/ massive objections from my Wife). This home was listed a over 1.2 million dollars. was at $799k, now at 699k. I don't think it has electric service, not does it have wired internet available. Along with the lack of utilities, the interior design is about as wacky as it comes. My Wife would, at a minimum, require a full gutting to the interior. What may be of value in this property is that it is on 70 acres.

7643 N Hidden Oaks Trl, Douglas, AZ 85607 | MLS #6471999 | Zillow

For sale This 2475 square foot single family home has 3 bedrooms and 2.0 bathrooms. It is located at 7643 N Hidden Oaks Trl Douglas, Arizona.

www.zillow.com

 

[zzyzzx]

Yes, you are spot on. I am not desperate to buy, and not showing "my cards", how much buying power I can afford, etc. I am only buying in advance of retirement if I can get a home well below market. Post retirement likely not such a hard criteria.

If you can contact the homeowner directly, tell them that you refused to view the house due to their agents arrogance.

 

[alarmguy]

The wealthy dont take out mortgages. I just saw this today on Long Island, my birthplace and 4 decades of my life there.
My old home town, you're lucky if you can find a small updated home now for $500,000 and better count closer to $600,000 + for the basics (lets not forget the $12,000+ in property tax every year too, $20,000 isnt shocking either) and that to me is the more economical but nice areas.

IN my

 

[alarmguy]

https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/01042023-mortgage-application-volume

Mortgage Application Volume Finished Year at 26-Year Low​

This would be expected. No one is going to refinance into a higher interest rate.
When interest rates fall people refinance not when they go higher. Big business for mortgage companies when rates fall, when they rise, they close up shop.
Rising interest rates are good for the country and we are now at a normal historical level. Post covid with Fed interference was artificially low.
Homes will always sell and the payments will always be what the public can afford.

 

[Rmay635703]

Those who think there is another real estate crash like 2006-2007 coming will be waiting a very long time if they are looking to buy.......it's not even close to the same market fundamentals.

Your right, the wealthy top 60-95% are more likely to have a distressed mortgage and more likely to be loosing wealth this round, the bottom half and the upper 1% are likely not significantly affected (at least in terms of wealth and housing losses)

Aka Thus far the cheapest homes aren’t deflating.